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Post Post #725 (ISO) » Mon Mar 22, 2021 7:39 am

Post by Battle Mage »

In post 723, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:I'd kill Implo over SS any day of the week tho I'm not even sure I want to limit the elim to those two slots.
they are the 2 wagons i wanna see for now. we can see where they lead.

always punish players who defend scum.
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
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Post Post #726 (ISO) » Mon Mar 22, 2021 7:40 am

Post by PookyTheMagicalBear »

alright I gotta run to get some recipes for baking cookies

I'll re-read their progressions when I get back.

Vengeance for Pengy/NM
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Post Post #727 (ISO) » Mon Mar 22, 2021 7:40 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 717, Battle Mage wrote:exactly - you're not pushing anyone. All you've done is defend Artemiana and try to buy the slot more time, and now throw the weakest shade at me.

I think the chances of scum in this position not wanting to rock the boat with too many scumreads is HIGH.
Sure... but this is how I always am. Artemiana was wagoned while V/LA without any chance to defend herself. Then when she came back she decided not to participate, which is of course a different matter.

And I would never be strongly pushing a scumread this early in the game, as either alignment.

(Also, I'm not sure I agree with the claim that scum would be sitting around doing nothing right now. They're in a pretty terrible spot and so I would think they'd need to try to establish mis-exes before town gets its shit together, rather than narrowing the field, as Pooky said.)
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #728 (ISO) » Mon Mar 22, 2021 7:43 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 725, Battle Mage wrote:always punish players who defend scum.
That's silly. That will just teach people to never defend anyone rather than actually learn to distinguish good arguments from bad.

When Artemiana was first run up, the case on her was incredibly weak. Doesn't matter that she was scum. The only solid evidence came when she came back from V/LA and then refused to participate.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #729 (ISO) » Mon Mar 22, 2021 7:44 am

Post by Battle Mage »

In post 727, Something_Smart wrote:
In post 717, Battle Mage wrote:exactly - you're not pushing anyone. All you've done is defend Artemiana and try to buy the slot more time, and now throw the weakest shade at me.

I think the chances of scum in this position not wanting to rock the boat with too many scumreads is HIGH.
Sure... but this is how I always am. Artemiana was wagoned while V/LA without any chance to defend herself. Then when she came back she decided not to participate, which is of course a different matter.

And I would never be strongly pushing a scumread this early in the game, as either alignment.

(Also, I'm not sure I agree with the claim that scum would be sitting around doing nothing right now. They're in a pretty terrible spot and so I would think they'd need to try to establish mis-exes before town gets its shit together, rather than narrowing the field, as Pooky said.)
I don't agree that you actually narrowed the field. literally nobody would have read your post and thought that was a strong basis to not consider late bussers, therefore it was more presentational than meaningful.

I also don't agree good scum strategy here would be to start actively and conspicuously pushing for mis-elims - especially if they weren't even on the wagon, as you weren't. it would be a short life expectancy play so early.

I'll give you the credit on the meta point though. Last time I remember playing with you, you were town and mostly lurked.
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #730 (ISO) » Mon Mar 22, 2021 7:47 am

Post by Battle Mage »

In post 728, Something_Smart wrote:
In post 725, Battle Mage wrote:always punish players who defend scum.
That's silly. That will just teach people to never defend anyone rather than actually learn to distinguish good arguments from bad.

When Artemiana was first run up, the case on her was incredibly weak. Doesn't matter that she was scum. The only solid evidence came when she came back from V/LA and then refused to participate.
the case was weak, but that doesn't really matter. what matters is plenty of folk went with it, and you didn't. You don't think scum bussed, so who do you suppose is scum? Implosion?
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #731 (ISO) » Mon Mar 22, 2021 7:47 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 729, Battle Mage wrote:I also don't agree good scum strategy here would be to start actively and conspicuously pushing for mis-elims - especially if they weren't even on the wagon, as you weren't. it would be a short life expectancy play so early.
I mean, if the other main scum was off wagon, they've probably got a short life expectancy anyway. But yeah, that is a fair point.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #732 (ISO) » Mon Mar 22, 2021 7:50 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 730, Battle Mage wrote:the case was weak, but that doesn't really matter. what matters is plenty of folk went with it, and you didn't.
Why does that matter? I would never join a wagon based on a case that weak.
You don't think scum bussed, so who do you suppose is scum? Implosion?
Mini, implosion, STD, Dunn are the people I'm looking at, roughly in that order.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #733 (ISO) » Mon Mar 22, 2021 8:09 am

Post by Battle Mage »

In post 732, Something_Smart wrote:
In post 730, Battle Mage wrote:the case was weak, but that doesn't really matter. what matters is plenty of folk went with it, and you didn't.
Why does that matter? I would never join a wagon based on a case that weak.
You don't think scum bussed, so who do you suppose is scum? Implosion?
Mini, implosion, STD, Dunn are the people I'm looking at, roughly in that order.
my gut feeling is I'm willing to give Mini a pass for today. I think if Mini is actual scum, Mini gives a PR to Artemiana. I'd rather focus on the players who I think would have left the newbie with no power in a game where the gimmick is about scum choosing whatever PRs they want.

I also think if Mini is scum, town pretty much always wins this game now, so there's no rush to do that elim. Maybe one for tomorrow.
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #734 (ISO) » Mon Mar 22, 2021 9:13 am

Post by implosion »

multiple people have townslipped or fake-townslipped... Salsabil with, well, most of what she's doing kind of (her seemingly having not thought for a moment what the setup looks like from scum perspective). Battle Mage twice, once with not knowing traitor mechanics and more significantly here:
But Pooky might be the sort of clever so-and-so to just pick 1 or 2 super powerful PRs to leave a fakeclaim available.
because I'm fairly sure the setup doesn't have scum pick town roles, it just has them effectively pick how many there will be. Or I guess the phrasing in OP is a little ambiguous since it does say some are granted by mafia but it also says some are granted randomly so they wouldn't have safe fakeclaims either way.
Pooky wrote:I like Salsa's enthusiasm

the shit is very +Town
Agree.
Battle Mage wrote:Artemiana being so pissed off makes me think it slightly more likely they were being bussed. especially because like, the player was just a goon, so it wasn't that big a deal for them to eat one.
Remember there might be a traitor; it's possible for goon to be a very important role in this setup.

That said I'm not sure why S_S is acting like scum can't recruit the traitor? In my mind recruiting the traitor is the #1 powerup for scum to pick. We need to temper assumptions around the existence or non-existence of a traitor until later in the game post-massclaim (if it even lasts that long).
Battle Mage wrote:Implosion's ISO is real interesting - just looking through, lots of references to Artemania - originally premier townread somehow, and although acknowledges 1 scummy post, Implosion does more than anybody to try and subtly protect Artemania from the sidelines.
This is actually mostly accurate (though I wouldn't call her a "premier townread" initially, those original reads were me desperately trying to get something to happen in a game that was only fluff). I just didn't want the wagon to go fast; as I said, there was still a lot of time left in the day and lots of people who still needed to contribute. There was, in my mind, no reason to wagon Artemiana that hard *yet*, because eliminating her would be too early and pressuring her harder didn't seem useful until she was back from v/la.
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Post Post #735 (ISO) » Mon Mar 22, 2021 9:15 am

Post by implosion »

Right now I'm inclined to townbin, roughly but not strongly in order of strength: Salsabil, Pooky, Battle Mage, STD, A50.
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Post Post #736 (ISO) » Mon Mar 22, 2021 9:18 am

Post by implosion »

In post 733, Battle Mage wrote:my gut feeling is I'm willing to give Mini a pass for today. I think if Mini is actual scum, Mini gives a PR to Artemiana. I'd rather focus on the players who I think would have left the newbie with no power in a game where the gimmick is about scum choosing whatever PRs they want.

I also think if Mini is scum, town pretty much always wins this game now, so there's no rush to do that elim. Maybe one for tomorrow.
The first statement here, I have two problems with. One, less importantly, I just disagree that you can read that strongly into how someone would distribute PRs. Do you have extensive experience with MiniMegabyte? Where are you getting the idea that she's the kind of person who would want to load scum with PRs? Second and more importantly, this doesn't disqualify her from being scum even if correct, because she could be a traitor (or a recruited traitor) who'd have no say over how PRs were chosen.

The second statement here, basically amounts to "I think MiniMegabyte will be eliminated before the game ends", which, i mean, why not do it now so that we can go into future days with more information when we eliminate people that we're less sure we're going to eventually eliminate ?
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Post Post #737 (ISO) » Mon Mar 22, 2021 9:33 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 734, implosion wrote:That said I'm not sure why S_S is acting like scum can't recruit the traitor? In my mind recruiting the traitor is the #1 powerup for scum to pick.
Perhaps they can, but that requires them to both know who the traitor is and sacrifice a kill, with pretty disastrous consequences if they're wrong.

I suppose it's a little more likely that scum bussed if they are a recruiter, but that's still a pretty big risk to be taking unless they already knew who the traitor was (which they evidently didn't).
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #738 (ISO) » Mon Mar 22, 2021 9:35 am

Post by Battle Mage »

In post 736, implosion wrote:
In post 733, Battle Mage wrote:my gut feeling is I'm willing to give Mini a pass for today. I think if Mini is actual scum, Mini gives a PR to Artemiana. I'd rather focus on the players who I think would have left the newbie with no power in a game where the gimmick is about scum choosing whatever PRs they want.

I also think if Mini is scum, town pretty much always wins this game now, so there's no rush to do that elim. Maybe one for tomorrow.
The first statement here, I have two problems with. One, less importantly, I just disagree that you can read that strongly into how someone would distribute PRs. Do you have extensive experience with MiniMegabyte? Where are you getting the idea that she's the kind of person who would want to load scum with PRs? Second and more importantly, this doesn't disqualify her from being scum even if correct, because she could be a traitor (or a recruited traitor) who'd have no say over how PRs were chosen.

The second statement here, basically amounts to "I think MiniMegabyte will be eliminated before the game ends", which, i mean, why not do it now so that we can go into future days with more information when we eliminate people that we're less sure we're going to eventually eliminate ?
By way of rebuttal:

Firstly, I know Mini very well, we've shared a few recent small games together, and in doing so, I read most of her other games (in the absence of which, clearly I wouldn't be well placed to assess the player's tendencies). I don't think it's impossible that she could do it, but I consider it pretty unlikely. And I do think that profile fits other players significantly better, and I'd prefer to focus attention there. So even though she hasn't done anything particular townie in this game so far, I'm willing to scope her out of the pool for today - but with a willingness to revisit later.

Secondly, it's perfectly possible Mini is a traitor. But I'm not taking it as a given that mafia picked the recruiter ability - in which case, traitor hunting would be a complete waste of time. And in general it feels like we're better off going for players who have a likelihood of being mafia or traitor.

Thirdly, when town is in the ascendancy I prefer not to elim the easy target - the town majority is huge, and we should avail ourselves of that. It's an opportunity to put some of the more assertive characters to the sword. I also vehemently disagree with the inference that Mini is a particularly informative elim. Mini is an obvious elim in the same way as yesterday, but I don't think the flip is the same.

Additionally, the fact we're actually discussing this at such length, makes me feel even more strongly I don't want to look there today. Being real, the pool is huge - I think I'm allowed a bit of discretion for 1 day. :lol:
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
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Post Post #739 (ISO) » Mon Mar 22, 2021 9:37 am

Post by Scipio1 »

In post 734, implosion wrote:because I'm fairly sure the setup doesn't have scum pick town roles, it just has them effectively pick how many there will be. Or I guess the phrasing in OP is a little ambiguous since it does say some are granted by mafia but it also says some are granted randomly so they wouldn't have safe fakeclaims either way.
I'm pretty sure this is right because I doubt Artemiana would fakeclaim a PR that she knew would get CC'ed.
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Post Post #740 (ISO) » Mon Mar 22, 2021 9:38 am

Post by Battle Mage »

In post 735, implosion wrote:Right now I'm inclined to townbin, roughly but not strongly in order of strength: Salsabil, Pooky, Battle Mage, STD, A50.
You're more liberal with townbinning than I am, heh. I do want to re-read Salsabil, but on previous experience Salsabil can look pretty scummy as town, and the vibe I get from the player here is similar, so gut leans town. I think Pooky's slot probably resolves itself in due course - I certainly wouldn't locktown it, but it's not a priority for today.
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #741 (ISO) » Mon Mar 22, 2021 9:38 am

Post by implosion »

Salsabil asked for a MiniMegabyte case. It's not going to be especially strong because... she hasn't posted all that much. But it goes something like this.

She started by voting Not_Mafia, and then didn't post until 48 hours later she posted this:
I hate day one that’s why I don’t post much I read though but don’t feel like I have anything worth posting or anything
I think the biggest thing here is that it feels like she's scum who decided to pick one or two things she could safely comment on and then just ignored everything else. Compare the first towngame I randomly clicked on here (she replaced out on day one but was there for about as long as this d1 lasted) where she had a post (317 in that game) where she literally had a quote wall of 26 quotes to catch up to everything that had happened in that game. She then named 3 people as scum and then engaged consistently over the next 4ish pages and, critically, over a period of just over 2 real-life hours. This game she has shown none of this kind of engagement. Seriously, just look at her ISO's posting patterns. Look at the timestamps, look at the post numbers. The literal only response that she's given to someone in the moment was her most recent post where I directly asked her a question. She has a couple of strings of posts that are near each other in time, but they're all her posting several times
in a row
- never her engaging with someone, always her monologuing then leaving the thread to come back later.

She clearly sometimes has things worth posting as town on d1; after all she went through the effort in this other game to do a huge catchup and then engaged with the thread for hours. Mind you this is literally the first random game I clicked in her completed games. In this game her contributions are the six posts starting with , which together account for 40% of her posting on d1, and whose arguments amount to being that claiming an impossible role is weird and why would someone do it and not liking a couple of comments. As I described, this looks drastically more like scum who is looking for things to comment on than town who is trying to suss out peoples' alignments.

She's also made multiple statements that are directly contradictory with what I see of her town game in that other game; there's the comment about not having useful things on d1 but there's more poignantly this:
MiniMegabyte wrote:Im not really one for putting reads directly out there
which is just, untrue. In that other game she listed 3 people as scum on day one, unprompted.

I could say more but I'd mostly just be rehashing these points. Just look at her ISO, it's short.
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Post Post #742 (ISO) » Mon Mar 22, 2021 9:40 am

Post by implosion »

Something_Smart wrote:Perhaps they can, but that requires them to both know who the traitor is and sacrifice a kill, with pretty disastrous consequences if they're wrong.
D'oy. I forgot that this changed from the old version of stack the deck to this one. Never mind.
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Post Post #743 (ISO) » Mon Mar 22, 2021 9:40 am

Post by Scipio1 »

I'm also hard mindmelding with a lot of S_S's posts

imo the pool for today is {Mini, Dunnstral, maybe implo} in that order.
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Post Post #744 (ISO) » Mon Mar 22, 2021 9:44 am

Post by implosion »

Regarding other players, at a glance:

S_S hasn't yet done anything that discounts him from being scum in my eyes. He might at some point.

Scipio hasn't given me the strong town pings that he gave me in open 806 (I was SK but wasn't lying about most of my reads). I haven't looked deeply at his slot here yet.

Dunn has yet to present any real reason for him to be town.
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Post Post #745 (ISO) » Mon Mar 22, 2021 9:44 am

Post by Battle Mage »

In post 734, implosion wrote:multiple people have townslipped or fake-townslipped... Salsabil with, well, most of what she's doing kind of (her seemingly having not thought for a moment what the setup looks like from scum perspective). Battle Mage twice, once with not knowing traitor mechanics and more significantly here:
But Pooky might be the sort of clever so-and-so to just pick 1 or 2 super powerful PRs to leave a fakeclaim available.
because I'm fairly sure the setup doesn't have scum pick town roles, it just has them effectively pick how many there will be. Or I guess the phrasing in OP is a little ambiguous since it does say some are granted by mafia but it also says some are granted randomly so they wouldn't have safe fakeclaims either way.
I don't think either of those are townslips by me. Yes, I'm not even sure I understand now how the traitor mechanic works, but that's because I'm a moron, not because I'm necessarily town. Although I guess it suggests I'm not a traitor, since I'd have a role PM for it. Although maybe I shouldn't say that as it helps scum narrow down who the traitor is. :lol:

On the 2nd one, I did know the bit about picking the number, but my point was that scum could pick up to 3 PRs, and town would get an equivalent 3 PRs. So if scum pick say, 2 PRs, they will be able to fakeclaim PR without it being demonstrably impossible (because town would have 4 legit PRs, but could have a 5th). I also don't know if the roles can double up - i.e. there could be 2 Hiders, in which case any of those roles could be a safeclaim.
In post 734, implosion wrote:
Battle Mage wrote:Artemiana being so pissed off makes me think it slightly more likely they were being bussed. especially because like, the player was just a goon, so it wasn't that big a deal for them to eat one.
Remember
there might be a traitor
; it's possible for goon to be a very important role in this setup.

That said I'm not sure why S_S is acting like scum can't recruit the traitor? In my mind recruiting the traitor is the #1 powerup for scum to pick. We need to temper assumptions around the existence or non-existence of a traitor until later in the game post-massclaim (if it even lasts that long).
Was the bold your attempt at a townslip? You pretending not to know that there is a traitor in the setup? :roll: Stretching credulity here!
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Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #746 (ISO) » Mon Mar 22, 2021 9:45 am

Post by implosion »

(And by "present any real reason" I don't mean literally argue that he is town, i mean do anything town-indicative)
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Post Post #747 (ISO) » Mon Mar 22, 2021 9:46 am

Post by Battle Mage »

In post 743, Scipio1 wrote:I'm also hard mindmelding with a lot of S_S's posts

imo the pool for today is {Mini, Dunnstral, maybe implo} in that order.
....2 lurkers? i know you can do better than that. Join me on Implo! Trust me, I'll give you a clean sweep! :D
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Polymath
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implosion
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Location: zoraster's wine cellar

Post Post #748 (ISO) » Mon Mar 22, 2021 9:46 am

Post by implosion »

In post 745, Battle Mage wrote:Was the bold your attempt at a townslip? You pretending not to know that there is a traitor in the setup? Stretching credulity here!
Like I mentioned I was confusing this setup with the old version of stack the deck.
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implosion
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Post Post #749 (ISO) » Mon Mar 22, 2021 9:46 am

Post by implosion »

What do you think of my Mini case, BM?

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