TM 2021: A normal roguelike

[DeasVail]

I actually still find Ydrasses pointing out of Ari's TMI really compelling. I also have been trying to reason out the NKs and haven't found much, because people I'm suspicious of have been dying every night, which is fine by me to an extent, but I have an evolving theory on the NKs that I need to post in full once I'm not fighting with my phone keyboard

Okay yeah so about this, it's not as interesting as I thought. I thought maybe scum were killing people to remove resistance to getting preferred mislims because I saw Ari/DV coming after Ydrasse

the day after

Hectic, Ydrasse's biggest defender, got offed

But petapan wasn't a Sirius defender, and Datisi wasn't a Creature-defender (if anything Datisi was in support of a Creature wagon) so that theory doesn't really hold water

I think one also has to consider that Hectic had me and Adorable as townreads above Ydrasse so that doesn't really leave many other elim options

[DeasVail]

I mean obviously this is my plan lmao
You're clear, xof's clear, I know I'm town
That literally just leaves that path to victory

How strong are you on Adorable-town?

[DeasVail]

Ari I would be prepared to elim Ydrasse today I think

[DeasVail]

VOTE: Ydrasse

[DeasVail]

Okay yeah you had me frantically looking for a scum flip I forgot about and then realizing we don't have an updated OP and getting mad

Um okay

[DeasVail]

That was just me expressing that I don’t really believe you and I can feel myself locking onto thinking of you as scum and I feel like that might be a good thing but obviously if I’m wrong I want to work that out.

I think a lot of the townreads on you are because “Reck’s town” without much more that really speaks to me.

All that was essentially what the “um okay” meant

[DeasVail]

Both of which are categorically untrue, but I have no way to show you that because any "proof" is going to be heresay, which makes it a super convenient and neat way to try to throw shit my direction while being immune to scrutiny for it

How often do reasons for suspecting people actually have a way to be proven wrong? I’m baffled by your issue with that aspect

[DeasVail]

Good night

[DeasVail]

Okay I quite strongly believe that Reck is scum.

Approach to Ydrasse-slot:

- Reck consistently throughout the game throws shade at Ydrasse's slot but hardly ever does he actually

do anything

with it.
- He thought Ydrasse was scummy enough to vote for her Day 1. 1187, 1426, 2431 are all posts expressing feels about Ydrasse being scum. BUT in this time there is no actual consideration that Ydrasse may be worth eliminating. He doesn't do anything with this until voting her in the previous day phase when the tide was obviously turning against her. Bringing me too....

Reck's Day 4 play makes no sense as town:

- Notable that in 2706 Reck supports Ydrasse's bad case on Ari. This is despite having thought Ydrasse suspicious for a large portion of the game, and not taking into account the problematic parts of Ydrasse's posting that I brought up in 2701.
- And then Reck just.... votes Ydrasse... because the game seems simple... despite having expressed suspicion of Ari and me. Oh BY THE WAY, what is Reck's read of Adorable anyway. Was it really confident enough for him to willingly just elim Ydrasse because whatevs? Despite seemingly not really thinking her to be scum. Oh here's a quote

Honestly Adorable just kind of evaporated from me as a scum candidate and dropped off my radar at some point. Huh.

Hmmmmm
- And how does Reck go from strongly townreading me early in the game and fighting against my wagons to thinking I'm scum Day 4. It makes the early townread on me feel like posturing, especially with the completely bizarre line of posts that Reck uses to try and convince people that he thinks my posting is weird. Boo-hoo, he can't prove that my reasons for suspecting him are wrong? When can you ever disprove someone's reasons for suspecting you??? (Reck should know this) Why was this a thing?? How has it contributed to a change in read of me?

Lastly, in what world does town-Reck ever think this:

hmmm good question, I think a couple townie sounding posts must have gotten to me earlier this evening, or my train of thought slipped the tracks at some point, because looking back now on the last 8 pages I read before posting earlier, I don't know what to tell you lol. DV's energy around Ari this phase reads to me like town with a confident townread, but I can't find whatever it is that prompted me to remove him from my PoE. I don't think he's scum with Ari, though, with the way they ran the massclaim. I didn't make it clear before but I'm down for an Ydrasse elim, and I haven't done any recent ISOdives or anything but from the events of toDay and what I can remember of earlier in the game, DV/Ydrasse doesn't sound all that improbable.

I feel you

I think we just yeet Ydrasse and then run down the list. Ydrasse's flip should clear something up either way though I don't really care what she flips I'm going to support a lim on Ari/DV tomorrow and it'll take a lot to sway me from that

My slot and Ari's slot had so much interaction with Ydrasse that it couldn't possibly not matter what Ydrasse were to end up flipping. Obviously Ydrasse's alignment was going to have some impact.

--

I think I am alone in thinking that reck is scum, but that's okay. I will keep posting about it until he is eliminated, or people say something convincing that doesn't amount to "reck feels town". (though I'll probably keep pushing Reck anyway because he's scum)

[DeasVail]

VOTE: xRECKONERx

[DeasVail]

Even the parts that he forgot that Reck brought up, those just feel like the kind of thing DV would have forgotten about in a natural way.

I think it's important to point out that there is nothing that I forgot

[DeasVail]

DV's case is full of giant gaping holes and flat-out false statements or at least logically inconsistent ones

This statement is absolutely not justified by Reck's big response post.

Seems like hyperbole in order to have my suspicion be dismissed.

[DeasVail]

On day 1 after RCEnigma fake claimed vig DV and Reckoner both unvoted him and voted Ydrasse. I think it would make more sense for scum to not vote Ydrasse after RCEnigma's fake claim because if Ydrasse did get eliminated on day 1 then that would mean RCEnigma would have been outed on day 2 which would mean the last scum would most likely have to solo for so many days and this makes me think Ari is the last scum because of this. There were some posts Ari made that were really suspicious and I'll do an iso of them when I'm done with work since I'm on my work break right now.

This is the best case for Reck-town that I've heard, and something I quite strongly considered before deciding that I believed Reck to be scum. Much like my reason for initially thinking that RCE and Ydrasse could have been scum together, I believe that once peta and I voted for Summer Nights, there were no other real wagon opportunities for scum that day. Being a third scum in that scenario would be AWKWARD. How do you even respond to that situation? If Summer Nights is eliminated and other scum stayed on RCE then they risk looking bad, just as trying to elim Summer Nights risks looking bad if RCE is eliminated. And I get your point. Is it worth the risk of potentially contributing to a Summer Nights elim? At the very least two town members in me and peta initially backing off the RCE elim because of the claim grants permission for others to do the same. And I'm not sure that I expect a third scum in that situation to actually be entirely logical and measured in what they are doing. If I were in that situation I would be freaking out in the scum PT absolutely not knowing what to do.

I still think it's a decent point in favour of Reck-town.

But similarly I am hesitant about Ari being scum. I think Ari as scum trying to push a massclaim through despite it being unpopular to multiple town members is VERY BOLD for Ari as scum. In Day 1, Ari hard-defended beeboy when there was little benefit for scum in doing so, and Day 4 busses Ydrasse, when if Ari is scum there are actual other elim options. For example, trying to elim me before Ydrasse makes a lot more sense. I know it hasn't necessarily happened here, but scum could easily think that a Ydrasse scum-flip makes me a lot harder to elim. Getting me eliminated first makes a lot of sense imo, especially with Reck getting suspicious of me Day 4. Why go for Ydrasse there?

(On that note I think it's bizarre that I'm still considered potential scum after the Ydrasse scumflip after I pushed both RCE and Ydrasse as scumreads to quite a strong degree, but that's another thing entirely)

[DeasVail]

You'll also note that I dropped a full catchup and reread of RCE in 2596, wherein I said if I'm pegging anyone for turbobussing RCE, it's you.

I believe that this was just based on post counts. Seems incredibly superficial to me

[DeasVail]

But to Xofelf and Ari, I really need more from you about why Reck is town. I believe that Reck being town is this assumption that has just materialized and does not have much basis for remaining.

I once townread Reck too, I get it. But the more the game progressed, the more I realised that there was not actually all that much in the way of good reason to read Reck as town, and the more and more I became suspicious of the way that Reck was playing.

[DeasVail]

To me, Reck honestly makes so much more sense as scum than Ari or Adorable, and I am still unclear on why he is off people's PoE's

[DeasVail]

To be fair, this was also when I misread "didn't vote" instead of "vote" for Ydrasse.

I feel like "full of giant gaping holes and flat-out false statements" depends on more than misreading just one thing.

I obviously want to know if you're town. I am constantly thinking about this read. But I'm at a similar place here to how I was when I was pushing RCE, and your responses to my posts have felt as if you're twisting what I'm saying into somehow being unjust or stupid or obviously false. Or just dismissing me as scum because of it which also does not help because here I am just continuing to think you're scum.

[DeasVail]

Here's the thing. Reck/Xof/Adorable all think Ari is scum. You could vote Ari without me if you wanted. I would be very cautious about that and believe Ari to be town. But it's not like I can functionally stop that from happening by not voting Ari. This is why I am being so vocal about why I think Reck is scum and Ari is town.
I could be wrong. It's very possible! But I am a fair way off being convinced of that.

[DeasVail]

I'm about to head to work but I'll do a write-up on Adorable this afternoon

[DeasVail]

My thoughts on Adorable can essentially be summarised as:

Adorable's posting is such that it strongly comes across as a town member merely posting what they think, without much thought given to how they look from it or how what they post is going to be received.

Recent examples include her posted thoughts on Ari in 2823. In this post Adorable says the following:

Ari has been changing his reads too much while I have been consistent on my reads and Ari said that I am the best elim for day 4 because of this. How is being consistent scummy?

Reads to me as genuinely being baffled that she is being scumread for something that she uses as a reason to think people are town. There is an effortless assumption that she is town with the thought of "I am consistent, Ari is not" that can be faked as scum but is less natural.

Ari putting me in front of Ydrasse making it look like Adorable/Ydrasse instead of Ydrasse/Adorable is also suspicious. When scum makes a list of team pairings they would often put town on the left and their scum buddy on the right.

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=82679 In this game I linked where I was scum who made fake team pairing I literally put a town player on the left and my scum buddy on the right.

This is reasoning that I think would come across as bizarre to a lot of people, but Adorable's posting gives me the impression that she really believes it. It's an odd thing to add to a case as scum though because it's not the kind of thing that is going to convince anyone or make them think more highly of your case.

Ari said on day 4 Ydrasse has been scummy all game saying countless times you had scumreads on her and by your team but on day 2 you said you and your team mate had a town read on Ydrasse and I quoted this above earlier so what you are saying in this post is a lie.

Calling out the post as a "lie" is very aggressive coming from Adorable scum if she knows Ari is town, yet there's no extra emotion or other performative flourish about it. It is said bluntly, stated as fact. Again, as if to me Adorable fully believes it.

--

There are other examples I could talk about if need be, but my thoughts very much follow the above trend.

[DeasVail]

I like your point that scum may be more likely to stay on RCE rather than move to Summer Nights in that situation, but I think it's worth considering that Reck voted beeboy while beeboy was not posting with the whole reasoning of "play the fucking game or gtfo", and it's a pretty safe vote to make as scum because the expectation is usually that those slots get replaced and even if not, places him on the wagon early. He never really expressed a scumread on the slot so maybe he felt that it would feel more "real" to switch to Summer, idk.

I think a vote elsewhere would have been ultra-avoided by scum though because regardless of whether it's RCE or Summer that gets eliminated. It's a super bad look ultimately if you were trying to start a different wagon and there was little hope of it being successful anyway because peta/me had landed on Summer.

When the main wagon is scum, and then the alternative is also scum, the third scum is going to be in a pretty stuck position.

[DeasVail]

I think I’ve made it pretty clear where I stand.

As shocking as it might be, nothing from the last 2 days has changed that

[DeasVail]

Hey Ari, anything you want to talk about?

[DeasVail]

I think Reck is the choice today too.

I have pangs of paranoia about you in a “what if Reck is right????” kind of way but I’m holding steady. I think it’s Reck

[DeasVail]

Also is it bad that I’ve never asked my team for reads out of fear that I would disagree with their reads and proceed to ignore them leaving them feel neglected?

[DeasVail]

Don’t worry, the expression of paranoia was not out of the expectation that you fix it (which I’m sure you gathered). I feel better now that I’ve just gotten those feelings out there.

[DeasVail]

Yeah uh I very much doubt that Reck could swing an elim onto me here.

[DeasVail]

Reck was also well within the realms of this person is fine

I would love to hear more about this

[DeasVail]

especially if I can't stop Ari from going here I will need to know what you like about Reck in order to not turbo-vote him in the next day if it happens.

[DeasVail]

I also think Ari brought up a good point about how him believing Ydrasse had already claimed VT would be strange from a scumbuddy with Ydrasse unless it was a totally coordinated thing between Ari and Ydrasse, which is the sort of thing that I believe happens a lot less often than town will be paranoid that it does.

I think Reck being scum makes the game make a whole lot of sense, because if Reck

were

town, then whoever was scum in the game in the previous day phase would have easily been able to get the elim onto somebody other than Ydrasse imo.

Reck suspected me, so why didn't Ari end up folding to vote for me? (Especially given that I become a much less likely mis-elim after the Ydrasse scumflip) I think Bulge would have voted for me, push come to shove, and then you just need one more vote.

Obviously Reck-scum had much less option to try and elim me because he was the only one really saying it with any kind of confidence, and if Ari, Adorable, Xof are all town who thought I was town, it becomes a lot more difficult to get a vote onto me.

I suspect that a Ydrasse elim only happened the previous day

because

Reck was scum.

[DeasVail]

I feel the most scared that I've felt in a mafia game for a very long time by plugging so hard for Ari-town here. I'm just envisioning an Ari scum-flip where I then feel like an idiot for defending him so hard all game but aaahhh I believe what I believe and I've got to stick to my guns here. I wouldn't be able to forgive myself otherwise

[DeasVail]

Thanks for that xof. It gives me a clearer idea of things.

[DeasVail]

It does, thank you <3

[DeasVail]

I don’t accept ari!

[DeasVail]

I think pushing the massclaim was an entirely obviously town!Ari move. As scum I simply rarely have the confidence to do that, even with a team yelling at me.

Actually this is so true

[DeasVail]

I had forgotten about the massclaim thing

[DeasVail]

Go for it I reckon

[DeasVail]

This way of interacting with me is not very helpful towards having me think you are town

[DeasVail]

And you absolutely did not make the Ydrasse elim happen. That was Ari, if anyone

[DeasVail]

i was the first vote on Ydrasse when the game was stuck in limbo with nobody knowing where to go first.

Can you point me to where this happened?

[DeasVail]

Because if you’re talking about the previous day phase, your vote on Ydrasse only occurred after:
- Ari had voted Ydrasse
- I had expressed I thought the scumteam was you/Ydrasse
- I expressed that I would elim Ydrasse (but didn’t vote)
- Adorable had just made a post talking about how she was considering the Ydrasse/Reck scumteam I was proposing

From your perspective at the time, it would have appeared as if the tide was turning against Ydrasse(/you) rather than you making it happen as you claim.

[DeasVail]

Whatever DV. I had also expressed interest in voting Ydrasse but you fail to give me any due credit for that

Where?

[DeasVail]

Also Reck, I do get your points about how you don't make sense as scum, you being scum is just not quite as nonsense to me as Ari or Adorable being scum is.

[DeasVail]

Whatever DV. I had also expressed interest in voting Ydrasse but you fail to give me any due credit for that

Where?

viewtopic.php?p=12578099#p12578099
viewtopic.php?p=12593647#p12593647
viewtopic.php?p=12594487#p12594487
viewtopic.php?p=12648494#p12648494
viewtopic.php?p=12650227#p12650227
viewtopic.php?p=12651715#p12651715

Here's all the times I directly stated I would vote or did vote Ydrasse
This isn't including all the times I pushed Ydrasse as suspicious but didn't expressly vote or intend to vote

PS i saw something in my ISO that made me raise an eyebrow a/b Adorable but I'm going to bed, reminding myself that "adorable w/r/t beeboy/ydrasse" needs a refresher

Why are you linking to posts made after your vote?

We were talking about before you made the decision to vote (I.e. bus) Ydrasse. You’re shifting the goalposts as of you need to make your case look bigger and more solid than it actually is.

My argument was that it is a reasonable move for scum-you to vote for scum-ydrasse at that point because there was reasonable likelihood that ydrasse would have ended up as the elim anyway (no guarantee of ari going at all after you having been pushing him all game) with expressed suspicion of Ydrasse by ari, me and adorable soon before your vote.

You then complain that you in fact had already expressed that you would vote Ydrasse and that I wasn’t giving you enough credit.

Now you’re making the argument about something else entirely (I don’t know what)

[DeasVail]

That is correct yeah

[DeasVail]

Thanks for posting your thoughts Adorable. Nice to hear where your head is at. I do truly think that Reck is scum and so would love it if you voted there but of course I know I could be wrong and that’s why we’re each here to make our own decision!

Either way, no blame, only love.

[DeasVail]

I really don't know what to do here. Frankly, I don't know how to communicate with Adorable and it seems xof and I need her vote now. Adorable, I think it's telling that the last confirmed town mason thinks I'm town, and the dead town doctor thought I was town before he died. Bulge laid out a very clear PoE that included Ari/DV, NOT me and you. I can feel him screaming at us from beyond the grave.

Not sure why you’re using this line of defence.

People were using Hectic’s defence of Ydrasse as reason not to elim Ydrasse.

You’re also asking xof about considering a vote on me when I was a top townread of Hectic, bulge had also taken me out of their PoE and the last confirmed town mason also thinks I’m town.

You must not genuinely believe that those are good reasons to think you are town when you are suggesting me as a vote in your next post despite those reasons also applying to me

[DeasVail]

I really don't know what to do here. Frankly, I don't know how to communicate with Adorable and it seems xof and I need her vote now. Adorable, I think it's telling that the last confirmed town mason thinks I'm town, and the dead town doctor thought I was town before he died. Bulge laid out a very clear PoE that included Ari/DV, NOT me and you. I can feel him screaming at us from beyond the grave.

Not sure why you’re using this line of defence.

People were using Hectic’s defence of Ydrasse as reason not to elim Ydrasse.

You’re also asking xof about considering a vote on me when I was a top townread of Hectic, bulge had also taken me out of their PoE and the last confirmed town mason also thinks I’m town.

You must not genuinely believe that those are good reasons to think you are town when you are suggesting me as a vote in your next post despite those reasons also applying to me

I have literally zero reason to talk to you anymore, I don't think you're engaging me in good faith. I actually think it's highly more likely that you're scum than Ari here, but xof hasn't shown interest in budging.

Oh okay.

If you feel that way, I am really sorry.

It’s always a weird situation because I obviously don’t believe you, and that makes it difficult to interact in a classically “normal” way.

Either way it certainly does seem like this hasn’t been a pleasant experience for you and I hope that we can be finished with it soon.

[DeasVail]

Notice how DV/Ari aren't even remotely planning on issuing reads or thoughts about Adorable/Ari?

I think it's important for me to say that I have done this

[DeasVail]

I also think accusations of game-throwing are unfair to the people in this game who (from my perspective) are all actually putting a great deal of effort into this.

[DeasVail]

Thanks Adorable

Good luck all

[DeasVail]

It took us a while to get there and I had my fair share of bad reads, but I just wanted to give massive credit to Adorable and Aristophanes in particular for coming together to eliminate Reck in the end. Being able to have that trust in each other in the end and identify each other as town was beautiful and a moment that really reminded me of why I used to love playing mafia.

Also Petapan you were excellent Day 1 and were killed by scum with good reason! The game probably would have played a lot differently (and better for town!) if you were still alive.