Micro 1003: Divide and Conquer - Game Over!

[Bingle]

Mena, you have significant partner equity with Infinity. Thoughts?

[Infinity 324]

Fairly confident in Vandertown aorn, btw.

Why? Not sold on the "not thinking through mech" argument, you can just post what you thought when you first saw the setup

[Vanderscamp]

You're talking in a way that's like "if the day ended now", when I don't think that's a useful mindset to have, a lot is going to happen on this day 1. You don't have to believe me

I believe a lot will happen, don't worry!
I'm mostly using it to explain my thoughts on the current gamestate.

[Vanderscamp]

You're talking in a way that's like "if the day ended now", when I don't think that's a useful mindset to have, a lot is going to happen on this day 1. You don't have to believe me

But I think it's very conceivable that we never get confirmed towns or scum NKs in the smaller group before losing the game, why do you expect this to happen if we initially kill into the large pool?

If we correctly elim in the small pool (1/3), we're looking at scum needing to miseliminate 3 times in the big pool to win. This is 5/6*4/5*2/3 for optimal play, or about 44%. Yes, scum wins a little bit less than half the time if we correctly eliminate in the small pool. 6:1 with a single IC is not a very strong position for town.

In any other case, scum should be shooting into the bigger pool tonight. As Pooky pointed out, the interactions are more telling when the big pool scum player is on the line than when the little pool scum player is on the line. Therefore, hitting the big pool scum player inevitably gives more information than hitting the small pool scum player.

I agree hitting the big pool scum player is much better, I don't think anyone is arguing that.
But it's also half as likely.

I personally think ensuring that we can kill one scum before we lose the game is more valuable than the other strategies, which is not the case if we aim into the big pool first.
But I mostly agree with whoever said earlier that we should probably just aim to kill the most suspicious player.

I REALLY don't like the idea of leaving the big pool lynch up to the small pool, I'll fight hard against that one.

[skitter30]

ok i am ~here~
i have approximately 30 minutes tho and then i'm gonna bounce again till tomorrow but then i'll actually be around

i have spent approximately 12 seconds thinking abt the setup and i think that we probably want to flip thru the 3-hood (unfortunately) cuz we'll net at least one scum, and then use the nks to sort out 5p and 3p as needed

i'm actually gonna read now

[skitter30]

Pooky tell me that I’m wrong that it u were scum and skitter was town that you wouldn’t have a neighbourhood with her

i think he puts me in a hood with him every time if he's scum tbh

[skitter30]

also if no face is hectic i think he always puts ydrasse in a hood with him

[skitter30]

We should vote for the one who is acting like mafia :)

*is* this hectic?

[skitter30]

VOTE: skitter this is the level 0 thing, I feel like I always get out-wined in these scenarios but yeah

hello

[skitter30]

I think both mafia are in the neighborhood of 3 :/

are you trying to townslip or ...

[skitter30]

Yah I think the problem with putting myself in with skitt would be the paranoia, esp in the 3p

ngl i was kinda thinking you were being +town for you until you said this
but this *does* make me paranoid ^

[skitter30]

Cause skitt is good at scum and scum expect us to hunt in the 3p hood first

infinity do u think we should be flipping in the 3p today?

[skitter30]

VOTE: skitter this is the level 0 thing, I feel like I always get out-wined in these scenarios but yeah

Norwee has trouble pinpointing the reason behind why scum!Skitter would put herself in a neighborhood of three if she is the stronger player of the team. :/

i'm p sure the answer is going to be something along the lines of: if she has a weaker scumpartner she'd take the 3p in order to shield them from that scrutiny

which is, tbf, a fair point

but i kinda feel infinity has entered the game assuming that we're going to flipping in 3p first and is setting the stage for why that ought to be me

[skitter30]

I have a permanent grudge against anyone I have correctly scumread in the past and failed to eliminate

Skitt get in here and fite me

VOTE: skitt

Ydrasse you're free for now

ok let's fite
- from your pov why is it me and not bingle
- do you understand how from *my* pov this looks to me like you entered the game trying to force a 1v1 with me
- aside note: if infinity is scum and taking this tactic i expect her partner to be less confident / the partner doesn't think they would be able to do the 3p (no offense to whoever that may be if that is indeed the case)

[skitter30]

guys

we r killing in the 6p hood today

because if we hit the scum in the 3p hood, the scum shoot one of the players in the 3p hood, and tomm we r back to trying to find the scum in the 6p hood.

but if we hit the scum in the 6p hood, the game is over and we win.

but we're guaranteed at least a scum by flipping thru 3p, no?

going for 6p today means we *might* get a win today but otherwise we end up in a similar space tomorrow with a large hood and an unresolved 3p that if i'm counting right we won't be able to flip through, which by definition means mitigating the chances of netting one scum, if i'm counting this right

it kinda reminds me of coalition of whether we ought to be trying to win (getting the coalition day1) or whether we ought to try to mitigate the losses if we don't get the coalition day1 by getting a coalition that will at least be easier to sort through up failing, as those things aren't always necessarily the same thing.

but i think it's usually better here to net the guaranteed scum and then try to find the other scum in the 6p because while it's not as ~flashy~ it'll help our overall chances of winning

[skitter30]

Infinity town.
Skitter wouldn't put themselves in 1v2.

Bingle scum.

why is infinity town?
and to be quite honest there are some scenarios where i would put myself in 1v2 (although i can't imagine i woud like it very much, and would vastly prefer not to)

[skitter30]

it only means we r on the right track mena

they started the openwolfing before you said your plan tho, no?

[Ydrasse]

skitter would 1v2 if i was in there i just know it

[skitter30]

Still TR u tho

U can’t take that away from me

And was correct too

You started of SRing me, then you TRed me, then you were trusting skitt. Somehow I feel like you would've been SRing me if skitt wasn't there but I guess we'll never know

You can still sheep skitt's read on me this game, we can't be partners

i think you're conflating jk++ with pyp x|y i|m, no ? isn't pyp the one where mena tried to flip you like six times but i wouldn't let him. or was that something else

either way i'm not really townreading you here so

[skitter30]

Pooky: we should lim in the 6p hood
Infinity: ehh idk
Pooky: here are all the advantages of limming in the 6p hood
Infinity: on the other hand, here are all the advantages of limming in the 3p hood
Everyone: wow infinity is so against limming in the 6p hood

i'm also not sure this actually, like, happened ?

[Vanderscamp]

I think pooky is likely town regardless of skitter's alignment.
If skitter is town then I buy the stuff about neighborizing her, and if not, they're probably not together from skitter agreeing that it's a thing.

[skitter30]

Mena already brought up the argument, but I think both skitter and Pooky scum would be likely to neighborize the other.

Would anyone in the larger pool be characterized as limbait? They're probably town if so.

i don't disagree with this assessment tbh - i think i neighborize town-pooky just abt always cuz he absolutely never tries to flip me as town
and he always neighborizes me (even if he thinks i might try to flip him) to chill with me

~ i think nor is probably the most flip-bait-y person in 6p (sorry <3)

[skitter30]

I think pooky is likely town regardless of skitter's alignment.
If skitter is town then I buy the stuff about neighborizing her, and if not, they're probably not together from skitter agreeing that it's a thing.

indeed

[skitter30]

ok didn't get to finish, gonna pick up at 164 later or tomorrow

[Vanderscamp]

I think skitter is so far the towniest of the small pool