Micro 1003: Divide and Conquer - Game Over!

[Menalque]

Mine?

[Bingle]

I'd think that it would be too hard for scum!her to justify.

Hm.

[Menalque]

I'd think that it would be too hard for scum!her to justify

Uh

Why

[Menalque]

Oh hey, snap bingle boi

[Infinity 324]

Why do you not think it can be skitt as scum who decides to scum read you?

I'd think that it would be too hard for scum!her to justify, but maybe she can anyway. I'm not sure. I feel like I'm already kind of out of my scumrange though, and will get more so as the game goes on.

Also, I didn't want to say "scum!skitt would be pressured into TRing me here" because then it would be easier for her to just SR me and she'd know I wouldn't get suspicious. I'm now realizing I probably thought about this too much and scum!skitt can justify whatever she wants

I still think it's significantly +scum for skitter to be SRing me here

[Infinity 324]

I'd think that it would be too hard for scum!her to justify

Uh

Why

She's correctly read me 3 games in a row and I feel like she has a pretty good sense for how I play

[Infinity 324]

Skitt doesn't get that much cred for SRing me in panic room because the entire game was, and she started off TRing me, but it's useful meta anyway

[skitter30]

Correctly limming in the pool of 3 D1 makes this a functionally a mountainous setup. It's not terrible, but it's also not great. OTOH, correctly limming in the big pool wins us the game. Also, limming in the big pool means scum is likely to shoot in the big pool. In the case that skitts is town, letting her have multiple phases to solve the game is a dangerous proposition. Similarly with me. Leaving both of us alive means that there is a decent chance that one of the two of us destroys the shit out of the gamestate, which is a risky proposition all around. If scum is going to shoot in the little group regardless, we want to force them to make that decision later. If we conftown people in the little group, doing so late game is inarguably the stronger move.

tl;dr -> Catching scum on D1 is less important than setting up a winnable XLO.

i think it's kinda better to go for the slow-and-steady-wins-the-race approach because we *know* that there's scum in a fully-flippable pool and if we just flip through 3p we're guaranteed to get one before the game ends, and at taht point the 6p pt will have been wittled down to like 3 at worst (if we don't flip this scum till day3) and there will be loads of info from the nk's and how the flips in the 3p pt went down to sort out who the scum in the 6p pt is

it might take more time, sure, but it's ultimately safer

and yeah limming in the big pool wins the game - but only if we actually do so (and there's more people in there so it's easier to misflip ...) and if we don't get it right we're right back where we are tomorrow ...

(it's weird to have an argument for why we should handle this a specific way dependent on leaving me alive cuz i'm me so uh yeah)
(but it's also weird that you're lumping yourself in there with me - i'm not sure if in this game town-you is the person scum are playing against (no offense))

also is your argument for why conftowning people in the little group bad largely solely based on who's in it or ...
i'm kinda rambling as i think through this but let's say infinity is scum, we flip her today, say i die tonight. are you basically arguing that in that scenario we'd want town-you to be conftowned later so we shouldn't try to flip scum-infinity today ? or am i missing something. or if you die we'd want me to be conftowned later? either way we'd have a conftown through the end of day2, no? that's p good?

and if we flip in the big pool today - say we find the scumz, yay. but let's just say we don't ... we won't have any conftowns day2, but it's also not guaranteed we'd get any at any point, right? misflip again in either pool and day3 we can have no conftowns. like we can be in day3 with a 1v1 in the big pool and the small pool unresolved.

[Bingle]

Oi bingle explain why I have equity with infinity

Of all the players on the list, you're the only one that comes to mind as probably not wanting to be in a hood with me and skitts. Additionally, I could easily see you as being the type to commit to winning through a single pool and shooting inside of the small pool despite it being mathematically suboptimal to do so.

[skitter30]

In the case that skitts is town, letting her have multiple phases to solve the game is a dangerous proposition. Similarly with me.

This makes sense, you sold me

VOTE: vander my first FoS, he's playing like he did in underage gun control (idk his town meta though)

he's really townie tho >.>

[Menalque]

Y’know bingle, i sometimes genuinely forget that you and jingle are the same person

[Menalque]

Oi bingle explain why I have equity with infinity

Of all the players on the list, you're the only one that comes to mind as probably not wanting to be in a hood with me and skitts. Additionally, I could easily see you as being the type to commit to winning through a single pool and shooting inside of the small pool despite it being mathematically suboptimal to do so.

Yeh, okay, that makes sense

Idk if I’d rather be in a pool with pooky > one of you but I get the general sentiment you’re going with

[skitter30]

-If jingle is as strong as scum as you, it could be either one
-Sure, but I expect you to be TRing me once you read up (I think)

- you aren't approaching this like it could be either one tho
- i don't think you're being townie for you
- maybe i missed it but did you answer this: which pool do you think it's optimal to flip in today?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Idk if I’d rather be in a pool with pooky > one of you but I get the general sentiment you’re going with

*swooons*

[Menalque]

I'd think that it would be too hard for scum!her to justify

Uh

Why

She's correctly read me 3 games in a row and I feel like she has a pretty good sense for how I play

Right but

If she’s in the 3p pool then she’s prob not expecting to survive long term

[skitter30]

Why do you not think it can be skitt as scum who decides to scum read you?

I'd think that it would be too hard for scum!her to justify, but maybe she can anyway. I'm not sure. I feel like I'm already kind of out of my scumrange though, and will get more so as the game goes on.

Also, I didn't want to say "scum!skitt would be pressured into TRing me here" because then it would be easier for her to just SR me and she'd know I wouldn't get suspicious. I'm now realizing I probably thought about this too much and scum!skitt can justify whatever she wants

I still think it's significantly +scum for skitter to be SRing me here

i mean i think that your approach to this day has been agenda-driven sooooo

[Menalque]

I wonder what infinity!scum implies about the 6p hood

[skitter30]

VOTE: infinity

i'm caught up, but if someone @'ed at me and i missed it would you mind just requoting?

i think that vander is town
pooky almost for sure puts himself in a pt with me if he's scum so i'm ok calling him town for now
infinity is scummy
mena i got townpings off of

nor, no face, ydra, i don't have any thoguhts on
bingle i'm still kinda processing how he's approaching this but i think townier than infinity

and that is where i'm at

[Ydrasse]

skitter just townread me this game to make up for that normal :3

[Infinity 324]

-If jingle is as strong as scum as you, it could be either one
-Sure, but I expect you to be TRing me once you read up (I think)

- you aren't approaching this like it could be either one tho
- i don't think you're being townie for you
- maybe i missed it but did you answer this: which pool do you think it's optimal to flip in today?

-What do you mean "approaching this"? I voted you which is like the only indication that I suspected you more? And I didn't know jingle was a particularly good scum player at first so idk what you're on about
-You're very wrong and I don't believe you believe that
-Jingle convinced me that it's better for whichever of you is town to be alive for longer, so 6p I guess

I'd think that it would be too hard for scum!her to justify

Uh

Why

She's correctly read me 3 games in a row and I feel like she has a pretty good sense for how I play

Right but

If she’s in the 3p pool then she’s prob not expecting to survive long term

I guess? I'm not sure which pool scum expected us to lim in

I guess she dies before endgame anyway but it's nice to survive one lim in the 3p group, but it's not that sus for her until I flip town, so my thought process didn't make sense. Ok. This makes me more confident skitt is scum

[skitter30]

she seems to think that we're flipping in 3p today, and i feel like she's sort of gearing up for a fight there

in that case if she's expecting 3p to be the focus, and is going on the offensive, it makes me think there would be a weaker partner in 6p because they wouldn't want the partner to be in the center of everything

[Menalque]

Yah I think the problem with putting myself in with skitt would be the paranoia, esp in the 3p

ngl i was kinda thinking you were being +town for you until you said this
but this *does* make me paranoid ^

btw skitt i don’t understand why this makes u paranoid

[skitter30]

skitter just townread me this game to make up for that normal :3

i'm not quite there yet but i will most certainly be more Judicious and Thoughtful in how i try to read you :)

[Infinity 324]

i mean i think that your approach to this day has been agenda-driven sooooo

Ok I would not be approaching this with an agenda if I was scum, I would be scared shitless and mostly just trying to survive by posting nuance

That's mostly what I did in panic room, my scumrange doesn't extend far beyond that

[Menalque]

think that vander is town

Explain this take too pls