Micro 1006 | Hydrogen-9121 | The End

xijinping · Post Post #100 (ISO) » Wed Apr 21, 2021 4:39 pm

still alot for me to digest but most of the odds and logic make sense to me how we should vote someone out today

Agent of Chaos · Post Post #101 (ISO) » Thu Apr 22, 2021 1:02 am

Oh man.
If I stop trolling, Madman will stop townreading me!

Agent of Chaos · Post Post #102 (ISO) » Thu Apr 22, 2021 1:13 am

I strongly opt for lolhammerring.
Claimed cop is twice as likely to be fake than not!

RationalMadman · Post Post #103 (ISO) » Thu Apr 22, 2021 1:52 am

Or claimed seer if it's werewolves.

Enchant · Post Post #104 (ISO) » Thu Apr 22, 2021 1:56 am

Or claimed FBI agent if it's Serial Killers.

Vanderscamp · Post Post #105 (ISO) » Thu Apr 22, 2021 2:07 am

In post 102, Agent of Chaos wrote:I strongly opt for lolhammerring.
Claimed cop is twice as likely to be fake than not!

In post 103, RationalMadman wrote:Or claimed seer if it's werewolves.

It's clearly not the case that both of these statements are true given we have a guaranteed cop and a guaranteed seer and only two scum.
One of them can be true if scum are weighted towards a specific claim.

It's definitely not the case that a PR claim is more likely to be fake than real (barring the potentially different odds of running up scum vs PRs)

Vanderscamp · Post Post #106 (ISO) » Thu Apr 22, 2021 2:09 am

Actually you're both definitely wrong, I was thinking you said more likely and not twice as likely.

Agent of Chaos · Post Post #107 (ISO) » Thu Apr 22, 2021 2:09 am

If furries are on, cop is just named townie.
Like... chocolate townie!
Do you like vanilla or chocolate more?

Vanderscamp · Post Post #108 (ISO) » Thu Apr 22, 2021 2:12 am

A named town in a 7p set is far from useless.

RationalMadman · Post Post #109 (ISO) » Thu Apr 22, 2021 2:17 am

I said unCC'd PR leads another elimination. I was pointing out a hilarious irony. Twice now, in the original accusation and also here, AoC assumed scum are mafia instead of WW in his hypotheticals.

Agent of Chaos · Post Post #110 (ISO) » Thu Apr 22, 2021 2:17 am

True. If he makes it to 3v2, we get 5/30 win, not 4/30
If he somehow makes it even to 2v1 we get an astonishing 2/6->3/6.

I can already see my odds rising!

RationalMadman · Post Post #111 (ISO) » Thu Apr 22, 2021 2:17 am

In faer* hypotheticals

Vanderscamp · Post Post #112 (ISO) » Thu Apr 22, 2021 2:21 am

In post 110, Agent of Chaos wrote:True. If he makes it to 3v2, we get 5/30 win, not 4/30
If he somehow makes it even to 2v1 we get an astonishing 2/6->3/6.

I can already see my odds rising!

I'm not sure if this is a troll or not

Agent of Chaos · Post Post #113 (ISO) » Thu Apr 22, 2021 2:24 am

I think you do not get my point.

FURRIES -> cop ≈ VT
MAFIA -> cop is 66% fake.

FURRIES -> Seer is 66% fake.
MAFIA -> Seer ≈ VT

Since we are auto-TERMINATING Vanilla Townies, we might as well auto-TERMINATE almost Vanilla Townies.

RationalMadman · Post Post #114 (ISO) » Thu Apr 22, 2021 2:25 am

I am very sure Robert wouldn't have posted only those two things and never posted again, however the hydra is doing the same. Both seem scummy to me. In this setup town want to talk quite a lot while scum want to hide as a default. There's nothing but pure fluff from Robert and the hydra but Robert's fluff didn't even make sense in itself.

RationalMadman · Post Post #115 (ISO) » Thu Apr 22, 2021 2:26 am

So I believe in Robert being the optimall elimination here. We need N_M to get prodded or something, the inactivity is unreadable.

RationalMadman · Post Post #116 (ISO) » Thu Apr 22, 2021 2:27 am

Robert as town wouldn't have*

Agent of Chaos · Post Post #117 (ISO) » Thu Apr 22, 2021 2:28 am

Anyways. I made a harmonogram for day 1:

Wednesday - Friday: introduction, mech talk
Saturday - Monday: silence
Monday - Tuesday: we create 2 or 3 possible wagons
Tuesday - Wednesday: rush-TERMINATION without claim

Any suggestions/ questions?

Vanderscamp · Post Post #118 (ISO) » Thu Apr 22, 2021 2:29 am

In post 113, Agent of Chaos wrote:I think you do not get my point.
FURRIES -> cop ≈ VT
MAFIA -> cop is 66% fake.
FURRIES -> Seer is 66% fake.
MAFIA -> Seer ≈ VT
Since we are auto-TERMINATING Vanilla Townies, we might as well auto-TERMINATE almost Vanilla Townies.

Oh.

In the win percent increase examples you mentioned earlier, you give examples that lead to a 25% and 50% increase in winning chances respectively. I don't think this is nothing.

I don't agree that we should be auto-killing VTs and your conclusion pretty obviously doesn't follow even if we were.
How are we even supposed to know if they are the "almost vanilla townie?"...

Enchant · Post Post #119 (ISO) » Thu Apr 22, 2021 2:35 am

If this is game with dogs, Cop without CC is just confirmed townie. If this game with mafia, Seer without CC is just confirmed Townie.

Agent of Chaos · Post Post #120 (ISO) » Thu Apr 22, 2021 2:37 am

They have 25% to be almost VT, 50% to be scum, 25% to be actually useful.

Vanderscamp · Post Post #121 (ISO) » Thu Apr 22, 2021 2:37 am

In post 119, Enchant wrote:If this is game with dogs, Cop without CC is just confirmed townie. If this game with mafia, Seer without CC is just confirmed Townie.

If this is responding to me, I'm talking about when we see the claim.

Agent of Chaos · Post Post #122 (ISO) » Thu Apr 22, 2021 2:38 am

In post 119, Enchant wrote:If this is game with dogs, Cop without CC is just confirmed townie. If this game with mafia, Seer without CC is just confirmed Townie.

I agree.
Confirmed Townie, almost useless role.

Agent of Chaos · Post Post #123 (ISO) » Thu Apr 22, 2021 2:40 am

So...
Anyone having reads on Vander?
I don't!

Vanderscamp · Post Post #124 (ISO) » Thu Apr 22, 2021 2:41 am

In post 122, Agent of Chaos wrote:
In post 119, Enchant wrote:If this is game with dogs, Cop without CC is just confirmed townie. If this game with mafia, Seer without CC is just confirmed Townie.
I agree.
Confirmed Townie, almost useless role.

I have no idea what to say if you genuinely believe that a confirmed town in a game with 5 total town is an almost useless role.