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[Datisi]

me pretending to know anything about wagon analysis:

ico - dats, norwee, vp, anya, wooper, gera (included bc why not)

george - luca, dats, wooper, gypyx, norwee

anya - dats, luca, vp, ico, gera, norwee

people involved in neither george/anya wagon - n_m, george, iv, anya, alice

ok i reskimmed your recent iso and i don't get it. what about ~the gamestate~. they were both run up. people seemed fine with either. like pls resummarize or link where you explained this bc i don't see it and i'm not buying vague "but the gamestate!!" (like 1449) arguments without them actually being backed up by something

George never really got into claim zone. when he did the Anya wagon came up and people just transitioned over.

what pool of people are the scumbuddies of Anya in? you can go "preflip associatives' all you want but like, i just don't see which teams are going to play it the way it played

if Anya is scum and GB is town, Anya's yeet was very avoidable. there were plenty of other slots that easily couldve been pushed while people were applying pressure to Anya

you could say Anya/GB is a lurker scumteam but i don't really believe it.

"people just transitioned over" is kinda false i think. both wooper and gypyx voted george but never voted anya. likewise, ico/vp/gera voted anya but not george. these wagons aren't the same.

i hate preflip but if i had to call out a "possible anya scumbuddies pool" i feel like all of {wooper, gypyx, n_m, george, iv, alice} fit from a sorta level-zero vca, where we're not even talking about possible bussing (which frankly i feel like happens every goddamn scum yeet but ok).

and like... is that not what's happening right now? haven't multiple people been pushing away from anya?

[NorwegianboyEE]

I’d vote to kill Anya but i feel like George’s post could be indicative of town!Anya if George is scum?
If it’s George’s scum partner, then it is at the very least. An extremely poor defense.

[Datisi]

norwee, you've been scum with george like 50 times by now, do you have any Deeper Insight Into The Situation here?

[NorwegianboyEE]

Well. I feel like George is scummy, not by meta since he usually at least chooses to play when i’ve been scum with him. But just in general because wtf is he doing if town. At least fucking play.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Actually there was that one game where he posted consequently a lot of posts in a short time period, and then went inactive. Which is kinda similar to the pattern exhibited here.
Achievement unlocked mafia. Check that for his scum meta. viewtopic.php?f=84&t=83676

[NorwegianboyEE]

Maybe he was relatively active there too though?
Tbh my view on George isn’t that great in hindsight since i don’t think i’ve even had any past games with him where he was town?

[innocentvillager]

I’d vote to kill Anya but i feel like George’s post could be indicative of town!Anya if George is scum?
If it’s George’s scum partner, then it is at the very least. An extremely poor defense.

you’re aware I said this first right like multiple times

[innocentvillager]

instead of saying my name and then going 'makes me uneasy', 'bad vibes', 'who the fuck is ico' etc

come at me and solve me

Time zone diffs :/

[innocentvillager]

people just transitioned over" is kinda false i think. both wooper and gypyx voted george but never voted anya. likewise, ico/vp/gera voted anya but not george. these wagons aren't the same.

whatever my wording wasn’t entirely accurate the point is George was a wagon then Anya became a bigger one, which means there’s some chance that scum are influencing this

[Datisi]

people just transitioned over" is kinda false i think. both wooper and gypyx voted george but never voted anya. likewise, ico/vp/gera voted anya but not george. these wagons aren't the same.

whatever my wording wasn’t entirely accurate the point is George was a wagon then Anya became a bigger one, which means there’s some chance that scum are influencing this

there's a chance that scum are influencing something? in a game of mafia? wow!

ok but who. like why do you think they're influenceing the anya wagon and not george's. is it me/luca/norwee? why are you fine with george wagon but not anya's then? is it vp/ico? are you pushing either of them?

[VP Baltar]

Weird that iv is like 'we might need to lim George' and then doesn't proceed to vote George.

[innocentvillager]

i hate preflip but if i had to call out a "possible anya scumbuddies pool" i feel like all of {wooper, gypyx, n_m, george, iv, alice} fit from a sorta level-zero vca, where we're not even talking about possible bussing (which frankly i feel like happens every goddamn scum yeet but ok).

and like... is that not what's happening right now? haven't multiple people been pushing away from anya?

doubt wooper just lol!lets anya die like she was going to.

gypyx doesn't care enough either

n_m is n_m, ill admit he could be a plausible anya partner

AliceK is doing nothing and maybe could be a plausible anya partner

GeorgeBailey is probably not Anya's partner, terrible positioning around her

i am town

[innocentvillager]

people just transitioned over" is kinda false i think. both wooper and gypyx voted george but never voted anya. likewise, ico/vp/gera voted anya but not george. these wagons aren't the same.

whatever my wording wasn’t entirely accurate the point is George was a wagon then Anya became a bigger one, which means there’s some chance that scum are influencing this

there's a chance that scum are influencing something? in a game of mafia? wow!

ok but who. like why do you think they're influenceing the anya wagon and not george's. is it me/luca/norwee? why are you fine with george wagon but not anya's then? is it vp/ico? are you pushing either of them?

i might not be explaining myself very well. i think they're pretty different wagons. Sure they're both on low-content slots, but one of them just has more votes and it stayed that way for longer and there was less pushback on Anya. it looks like there's a lot of resistance to Anya from your perspective but i feel like that's mainly because ive been making a ton of noise lately and people started to go "oh sure let's compete wagons" or smthing. idk. like you don't have the information that im town so it's harder for you to see it

i just feel like if we are kind of passively whatever wagoning scum D1, we end up with this pool of {George, AliceK, NM, Anya}, the only one that really stuck was Anya. that by itself is a ton of information. it wasn't until i made a big fuss that people started maybe reconsidering, and that happened pretty slowly.

frankly at this point i still don't know what the fuck is going on. people are going back to george kinda and i don't know how i feela bout that either. im burning out a little on this day based on what i feel are a few gut pings that are hard to explain ig but ultimately i am not informed so i cannot tell you who on the wagons i believe are pushing wagons in bad faith. if you guys decide to eliminate anya i won't fault you guys that much, the only thing at fault here is my inability to clearly detail what is going on (for both myself and you gusy)

[innocentvillager]

i don't think scum were banking on me (or anyone) to come out and WK their scumbuddy the way i did and THEN make moves to other wagons so in that case you have to kind of believe scum were passively not on Anya or lolbussing her D1 for like, zero towncred whatsoever. if you think there's like a reasonable chance of that happening then that's you r call, im simply saying that it is unlikely

[Datisi]

ok, who do you wanna wagon instead then? it's not the time for theory arguing without also proposing an alternative

[innocentvillager]

im also kind of assuming scumteams on average are playing reasonably well and not like AFK lol our partner's dying like whatever. it's jsut so bad to let the Anya wagon get to where it was and for scum!Anya to get where it was whent here were plenty of other elimbaity slots. like George never got up to that point so i don't really make the same arguments fo rGeorge here.

if we have a pure lurker scumteam/scum just doesn't care about wincon then like sure my analysis is overleveling it a little. i mean that's partially what's giving me doubt here

[innocentvillager]

i mean if i had 7 votes rn id kill Not_Mafia. i don't know why it's so hard to get support for that wagon and don't think GeorgeBailey is that scummy. I will hammer GeorgeBailey if he gets to it though. i just don't really know

if you need a pool, im looking at N_M > {GB, AliceK} > Iconeum

[Datisi]

why n_m. that's the ultimate coinflip.

[innocentvillager]

GeorgeBailey like might become more sortable but N_M will not imo, which is another reason to vote N_M

but also i feel like N_M is a lot more likely to die in this spot if he's town given how disorganized town is :/

[innocentvillager]

i mean id take a coinflip over Anya at this point

i also don't *hate* the idea of flipping Anya and jsut getting this whole thing over with because that maybe tells us good associatives info

[innocentvillager]

im not trying to figure out what it means

but it is clearly a role crumb

if he later says "oh lol that was just me trolling" i would insta-kill gypyx bc that's scummy

like he's basically committing to a claim there regardless

I mean, what if he just claims VT later and has some semi-plausible explanation for why that means VT? Gypyx has a weird mind, so I guess I don't see what he'd claim where he couldn't make SOMETHING sound ok.

never responded to this

but what do you think his intention is, as scum, is when posting that? i dont' think he's expecting to get townread for that post.

So as scum is it:

1) random nonsense where he's going to go "oh lol it was just a joke" at massclaim
2) an actual crumb of an actual role he has in mind
3) a super big brained move where it can actually crumb like, 5-10 different roles at once

1) - this is unbelievably scummy
2) - okay so this is the pigeonholing scenario we're talking about here, trapping himself into a claim. This i believe is the most likely scum!Gypyx scenario, like maybe his role/partners roles dictates that there's like 1 or 2 roles that he ever claims as scum here idk he's the setup guy.
3) - gj Gypyx i guess? Still pigeonholing himself into those specific roles i guess but it's not terrible

and the benefit of it is... towncred? really? how much towncred does he get from that

[geraintm]

i mean id take a coinflip over Anya at this point

i also don't *hate* the idea of flipping Anya and jsut getting this whole thing over with because that maybe tells us good associatives info

i would take a coinflip over someone people are pushing any day of the week.
im more than happy for the rest of you to draw straws to see who should go

[innocentvillager]

ill offer a shitty readslist ive been drafting in a few hours. it's not much don't wait for it or expect anything remotely good or insightful im fucking clueless.

[innocentvillager]

i would take a coinflip over someone people are pushing any day of the week.

thank you geraint

we agree

there's actually a dumb little problem here tho; that N_M isn't actually a coinflip. because scum don't have to let it happen if he's scum. that's why i wish i had dayvig or could have 7 votes.

[VP Baltar]

If you do not vote Anya or George in your next post, I'm going to assume you are scum.

This applies to everyone.