Newbie 2062: The Hubble Telescope - End!

[fferyllt]

Vote Count 1-9

Hubble has the pointing accuracy of .007 arcseconds, which is the equivalent of shining a laser beam on President Roosevelt’s head on a dime about 200 miles away.

Andante

(3): RationalMadman, T3, Rathe

orctin

(2): Clasko, JacksonVirgo

Ivyeo

(1): Demainer

RationalMadman

(1): Andante

Not Voting

(2): orctin, Ivyeo

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to eliminate.

Deadline: May 8, Midnight US Eastern Time.

Countdown: (expired on 2021-05-07 21:00:00)

Mod Notes:

orctin v/la until 5/2
-

[Andante]

Are you assuming there is a roleblocker here

All I know is it isn't 2 goons, if you look at the setup, doc is only in 2 columns

[Rathe]

doctor is protective n works with town

[Rathe]

if u r actually the real doctor ur claim is anti town

[Rathe]

it was no need to claim

[Rathe]

u had 2 votes like orctin n rational

[Rathe]

it was selfish

[Rathe]

if ur mafia u r trying to get the real doctor to claim

[Rathe]

this will give u easy access to the other pr

[Rathe]

no worries about wasting a nightkill

[Rathe]

either way u being voted out is the best play

[JacksonVirgo]

if u r actually the real doctor ur claim is anti town

No shit sherlock

[JacksonVirgo]

either way u being voted out is the best play

Wrong, and you should be ashamed of yourself for thinking this way.

[Andante]

I mean, ideally I wouldn't have claimed there, but Rational's continuous pushing that I was scum was pissing me off so I said "fuck it" and claimed.

[Andante]

what's done is done, and voting me out after that when I'm definitely flipping doc is not the move

[T3]

I doubt that a real doc claims with 2 votes. This feels like scum knowing they wil die and drawing out PRs early.

[Andante]

What in the actual fuck is happening. all 3 voting me have acknowledged I claimed doc, and are still voting me...

[Demainer]

ivy can try preserving her universal tr status by not posting anything just like last time, but I'm not fooled.

Knowing Ivy's scum game, is it really likely she repeats it, knowing we're both in the game this time around? I think anyone with a grasp of mafia wouldn't do this.

There's an element of truth in this, but ivy has already shown her ability to subvert "traditional" mafia play.

Everyone was saying literally the same thing last time, "there's no way scum ivy can be playing like this", twtbaw. They were wrong.

[Demainer]

289 gives me good vibes. There's quite a few things to like about this post, especially the depth of analysis that was missing in her previous game as scum. It's not strongly ai, since it could simply be an attempt to improve her scum game, but some of the reads in that post don't feel forced like her reads last time, where she was clearly pushing an agenda with a defined conclusion.

[Demainer]

UNVOTE:

[Demainer]

whatever, I'm claiming, I'm the doctor, I'm literally dead tonight, so go find scum. thanks. I'm actually getting annoyed by the nonstop pushing on me from you

Umm why?

[RationalMadman]

Jammer Andante. Andante should townread how hard I am ohshing and offering to vote me off tomorrow. As Scum I'd want to night kill her, even if Cop would catch me it's safer to force Cop not to investigate outside me and potentially have a win D2.

I am telling you this. If Andante flips Doc, you vote me Day 2.

[RationalMadman]

Everyone hanmer Andante, she is not at all actung how she would as Doctor in this scenario. She isn't even insisting you all vote me, nor is she displaying further rage, she's maintaining a 'pity me' persona and waiting for a CC.

[T3]

Demainer looking townie. JV/Andante may actually be a viable scumteam.

[Demainer]

andante is reading slightly town to me, so I may be biased in this analysis. I'm inclined to believe her claim.

9 possible setups here:

Roleblocker - Cop/Doctor, Jailkeeper/Tracker, Mason/Mason
Rolecop - Tracker/Friendly Neighbor, Jailkeeper/Friendly Neighbor, Tracker/Doctor
Goon - Cop, Jailkeeper, Mason/Mason

The only roles that interact with Doctor are Cop (Roleblocker) and Tracker (Rolecop). Jailkeeper, Mason, Friendly Neighbor all don't interact with Doctor.

Roleblocker - Jailkeeper/Tracker, Mason/Mason
Rolecop - Tracker/Friendly Neighbor, Jailkeeper/Friendly Neighbor
Goon - Jailkeeper, Mason/Mason

On top of that, there's 2 setups involving a real Doctor: Cop/Doctor, Tracker/Doctor.

So, in 8 out of 9 setups, a fake Doctor claim will result in a cc, which leads to the fake claimer being elimed.

andante was nowhere near being elimed at this point, she was not universally sred, so the only reason for a fake claim is a gambit.

But it's also unlikely that scum would fake claim Doctor to goad the real power roles to out themselves as a d1 gambit, because in 4/8 situations where Doctor will be countered, the pr cc comes from a Mason or a Friendly Neighbor, which are hardly of any use to identify.

Roleblocker - Mason/Mason
Rolecop - Tracker/Friendly Neighbor, Jailkeeper/Friendly Neighbor
Goon - Mason/Mason

Outing the Mason is pointless, because scum need to bring the game to lylo to have a chance at faking Mason, which means before lylo is reached, as long as the other Mason claims, they immediately become conftown. Friendly Neighbor is not a meaningful role to out either, since in both cases where the role is outed, there is another pr more powerful than Friendly Neighbor in play (in the Jailkeeper's case, the Friendly Neighbor can avoid nk). So, this is not likely either.

In 2/8 situations, a Doctor fake claim will lead to the real Doctor cc, which is very useful for scum.

In 2/8 situations, the fake claim will lead to a Jailkeeper cc, which is useful for scum, but also incredibly dangerous. The remaining scum could be blocked at night before the scumteam have a chance to take out the Jailkeeper, leading to a complete rout.

So, claiming Doctor to just out a pr is not helpful at all, definitely not at the cost of losing scum. Only 2/8 scenarios definitively benefit scum here.

If scum were at a point where they needed to fake a pr, and did it as a gambit, there are better options. Claiming Friendly Neighbor would be better, because it only results in a cc 7/9 of the time, and 3/7 of the time the cc involves Cop or Doctor, both of which are amazing roles for scum to identify, as opposed to Jailkeeper or Mason or Friendly Neighbor. Claiming Tracker would be good as well, because only 7/9 situations result in cc, and 2/7 involve Cop claim, which is good, and further 3/7 involve Tracker, which is also good. Tracker and Friendly Neighbor make much more sense for a scum fake claim, compared to Doctor.

I don't see scum losing one of its own on d1 for the sake of it, it makes it much harder, for no probable benefit.