Happy Face Mafia (Game Over)

[Dunnstral]

VC 2.3

Dunnstral (6) - Flea The Magician, WhemeStar, samantha97, Andante, Raya36, Titus
jjh927 (2) - Esooa, Dunnstral
Titus (2) - T3 willow1
Raya36 (1) - VFP


Not Voting: (4) , PenguinPower, jjh927, Retti, Bear HUGS

Deadline is in (expired on 2021-05-07 05:05:29)

With 15 players alive, it takes 8 to fade away

Here is what the votecount looked like when they all stopped posting, which I believe further supports that some of them are dodging the thread here; sort of taking it easy.

[jjh927]

I just got a prod

Apologies for my low activity as of late- it has been a busy weekend

[samantha97]

apologize by explaining why at least 2 different people are mafia

[Dunnstral]

[jjh927]

Titus is just town fwiw

Why is Titus town?

I'm not agreeing with a number of the things she is saying, but there are other things where she absolutely makes sense, and I feel like she's always saying things that make sense from what I know of her thought process. This appears to be Titus' real outlook on the game, as opposed to her scumgame. I somewhat expect her to have a few things that I completely disagree with, but she's a lot easier for me to place now I think I know roughly how she thinks.

There might conceivably be some minor recent differences in meta that I'm tuned in on that other people who are scumreading her are not? Might be worth checking up on the team mafia game she was in, as I think this is extremely similar play.

[Dunnstral]

can you be more specific as to why you are heavily opposed to a titus vote flea

I strongly believe she's town. One of my strongest reads actually based on Meta and what she's done here so far.

Also the best drunk game is Mario Kart Double Dash with friends

Titus is just town fwiw

Why is Titus town?

I'm not agreeing with a number of the things she is saying, but there are other things where she absolutely makes sense, and I feel like she's always saying things that make sense from what I know of her thought process. This appears to be Titus' real outlook on the game, as opposed to her scumgame. I somewhat expect her to have a few things that I completely disagree with, but she's a lot easier for me to place now I think I know roughly how she thinks.

There might conceivably be some minor recent differences in meta that I'm tuned in on that other people who are scumreading her are not? Might be worth checking up on the team mafia game she was in, as I think this is extremely similar play.

For some reason the people who defend Titus are super vague about it and just say "what she's done here so far" and "there are other things where she absolutely makes sense."

At the very least I feel that these reads are just not very good

[jjh927]

Raya and Andante have both moved into my town pile

[jjh927]

I'll elaborate on Titus a bit then, hang on

[jjh927]

VC 1.3

VFP (6): Retti, Romance, Bear HUGS, samantha97, Enchant, willow1
Enchant (3): Dunnstral, Bamboozle, WhemeStar
samantha97 (3): Raya36, VFP, T3
Dunnstral (1): Titus
Raya36(1): jjh927
Romance (1): Bell
Bamboozle(1): Flea The Magician

Not Voting (2): PenguinPower, Hubble Bubble,

Deadline is in (expired on 2021-04-27 00:50:57)

With 18 players alive, it takes 10 to fade away

VC 1.4

VFP (6): Retti, Romance, Bear HUGS, samantha97, Enchant, willow1
samantha97 (2): Raya36, VFP,
Enchant (2): Dunnstral, PenguinPower
Bamboozle(2): Flea The Magician, WhemeStar
Bell (2): Esooa, Bamboozle
Dunnstral (1): Titus
Raya36 (1): jjh927
Romance (1): Bell
WhemeStar (1): T3


Not Voting (0):

Deadline is in (expired on 2021-04-27 00:50:57)

With 18 players alive, it takes 10 to fade away

VC 1.5

Bell (5): Esooa, Bamboozle, Enchant, PenguinPower, Bear HUGS
samantha97 (3): Raya36, VFP, Romance
Dunnstral (2): Titus, T3
Bamboozle(2): Flea The Magician, WhemeStar
Enchant (1): Dunnstral
FP (1): willow1
Raya36 (1): jjh927
Romance (1): Bell
PenguinPower (1): samantha97

Not Voting (1): Retti

Deadline is in (expired on 2021-04-27 00:50:57)

With 18 players alive, it takes 10 to fade away

VC 1.5

Bell (5): Esooa, Enchant, PenguinPower, Bear HUGS, Raya36
Raya36 (4): jjh927, Titus, Retti, Bamboozle
samantha97 (3): VFP, Romance, willow1
Romance (2): Bell, WhemeStar
Retti (1): Flea The Magician,
Titus (1): T3
Enchant (1): Dunnstral

Not Voting (1): samantha97

Deadline is in (expired on 2021-04-27 00:50:57)

With 18 players alive, it takes 10 to fade away

Given Retti and Bamboozle are town, scum were not trying to save Raya but merely gave up here. They went from not caring who was eliminated to resignation.

This points to PP scum as I TR everyone else on the Bell wagon.

PP Dunn T3 is my new answer.

[jjh927]

if anything the votes point to vfp being mafia if penguin were mafia

immediately before the bell votes vfp was at 6

So you're suggesting scum bussed Bell over VFP. It's a valid theory but I disagree.

I townread all the names on the VFP wagon. That's a sign you're correct. Yet no scumreads jumped on the wagon. I would expect some scum to jump on a scum wagon. If we do postulate VFP scum, then he must be either a higher PR role or more likely to go deep. This is where tin foil Retti scum goes.

Given the wagon participation rate (most sitting alone), I would feel that they generally ignored wagons on town and rushed to get on scum wagons. This is why PP's empty ISO is key. He was around but chose to vote Bell and not VFP. The VFP wagon was meant to hang around like DGB and LLD wagons did in the large normal.

Tldr, I think your read is townie but incorrect with a possibility that I am wrong.

Can we just vote where we agree though?

VOTE: PP

Raya is. I think it was all town on the Raya wagon, so scum could have tried to move pressure away from the Bell wagon and they didn't

Counterpoint, as much as Raya is my backup.

They may not have had time to do so given the gladiate.

Do you have a reason for T3 scum that is not related to him voting you?

His unreasoned defense of lurky players, his utter lack of scumhunting (no discussion of anyone but me) and his chainsaw on behalf of Dunn.

[Dunnstral]

So where do you think scum are voting in vote count 1.5 above?

[jjh927]

That's probably enough posts

Titus is looking to try and push wagons on people she thinks are scum, especially when people are voting for people she does not think are scum
She is engaging with people to the end of convincing them of her viewpoint

This is Titus' towngame

[samantha97]

apologize by explaining why at least 2 different people are mafia

pls

[Dunnstral]

That's probably enough posts

Titus is looking to try and push wagons on people she thinks are scum, especially when people are voting for people she does not think are scum
She is engaging with people to the end of convincing them of her viewpoint

This is Titus' towngame

I can buy that, sort of

I think the places she actually landed for her are kind of garbage. I think her pool of 3 is more likely to be all town than not.

[willow1]

here's some of my quotes on titus, very trimmed so as to be somewhat readable

i would dayvig titus if i could, not even remotely trying to use the wagons or vote patterns a divining tool other than this awkward defense of bell (bell should be null at best, but pooky/retti are right on meta. i thought he siteflaked but he's still in for defcon)

ik people had questions for me, will circle back in a sec

it's tough to capture in quotes, where sometimes those votes/wagons happen to wind up on scumreads anyway, but take a look at games like flavor leaf vs. hectic, where she happily joins a wagon suggested by FL, and warehouse-13. idk maybe someone in those games can give context b/c i don't really want to quote from games i was actually in

actually after reading this post i would 100% vig her lol

I agree Titus is probably town which means she’s gonna say I suck at working together no matter what despite me in prior games actually being good town and she was in scums pocket so hard I deviated at the very end.

What caused your read change on me?

I’ve had a town read on you.

Your townread is conditional on Dunn because you want me to stop pushing my top scumreads of Cakez and Pooky and consolidate super early.

I am going to be blunt with you.

I am using the Dunn wagon to get reads. Such static reads aren't good. Use the wagon as a way to check your reads rather than supposing you're right. Let yourself and others solve the game over time.

How to host a murder isn't solved round 1.

did you expect scumwillow to shove you for your love of vca or something

Yes. Scum Willow would do that. Scum willow would push me knowing our playstyles crash. I don't see that as your rationale for pushing me. Your push is melodramatic and overblown though.

Sure I was wrong on Bell/RMH. Sure I should be investigated because I was wrong.

Your responses to me are out of line proporionally though.

It's quite obvious that Bell was bussed particularly after that gladiate claim. No one thought Bell was living through that. It effectively shut down counter wagons though.

Overall, I think you're town but I'd feel more reassured if you hunted some other slots as well (even if voting me). I'm an easy place to sit at the moment. Scum!you is capable of just making noise about me alone and then just going whoops.

exactly zero of my vote on you depends on bell's flip.

i am arguing that you fundamentally do not do things like hold off voting wagons while not having a solid footing of the game to work with, and that you would instead have been happy to throw your vote around readily just to see what happens

you were not trying to read into the bell wagon as it was developing and there's little to no evidence you're using the flip at all even now

VC 1.5

Bell (5): Esooa, Enchant, PenguinPower, Bear HUGS, Raya36
Raya36 (4): jjh927, Titus, Retti, Bamboozle
samantha97 (3): VFP, Romance, willow1
Romance (2): Bell, WhemeStar
Retti (1): Flea The Magician,
Titus (1): T3
Enchant (1): Dunnstral

Not Voting (1): samantha97

Deadline is in (expired on 2021-04-27 00:50:57)

With 18 players alive, it takes 10 to fade away

Let's look at Raya's wagon. Retti is likely town and we're assuming he's town for purposes of this exercise. JJH encouraged the Raya vote based on the case I made. I don't think he spends his little capital doing that if he knows Bell/RMH is scum unless Raya also is. So we can rule out jjh scum, raya town.

That means if scum were trying to save Bell by sheeping my wrong case, it would have to be Bamboozle. If my Raya case is right, the Raya wagon is all town.

Tldr: One of Raya/Bam should flip scum.

I'm also assuming singleball.

this is the main wagon analysis you do, on the Raya wagon you started, where one of bam/raya will flip scum.

you've backed off of raya citing the romance kill changing your view.

i don't see any attempt to analyze the bell wagon, either before or after the gladiate, and dunn making a snarky remark on two town prs dying is aimless commentary and not scum indicative

i don't find basic reactions & vca with little to no depth town ai sorry jjh

[jjh927]

So where do you think scum are voting in vote count 1.5 above?

That's quite open tbh and not my preferred kind of spec

That Bell wagon looks like all town there

The Samantha wagon includes VFP
Dunnstral wagon includes T3
Bamboozle wagon has Flea

and then there's all the vanity wagons at that point

If I had to pick from the actual wagons, I think the order listed (VFP, T3, Flea) is order of likelihood of being scum, with the unmentioned players on those wagons (now mentioned as Raya, Titus, and Wheme) being town. I don't think there's a lot we can get from these wagon comps at this stage

[willow1]

1198 has some depth in its analysis but still doesn't do it for me

excuses to vote for the lowest hanging fruit on the wagon are pretty yikes to me

[jjh927]

Willow, check out Titus' iso from the large normal in team mafia, or look at her in pokemon battles

I think Titus looks a bit different in recent months

I also think people who would otherwise be able to read her have recently ended up scumreading her incorrectly as a result of this- see myself in pokemon battles or mastina in the large normal

[jjh927]

Samantha, sorry I keep ignoring your request to give 2 scumcases but that's gonna be some effort and I need to get my reads in order again

If you want a scumcase at all or more than 1 confident scum I need to engage and stop being lazy, which was actually my plan for this day phase and hopefully there is still time

[willow1]

i have seen a lot of recent titus lol, and that wall uses recent town titus in two different games as an example of why that day 1 wagon avoidance was bizarre in comparison

[Dunnstral]

19 hours is the deadline for Retti to use their ability. They also need to get claims and process them in that time, plus their own availability could cut that time shorter

[Titus]

I got prodded. I'll catch up this afternoon. Lots of work drama, personal drama and illness.

[Dunnstral]

IMO whemestar should be considered today

[Raya36]

My thoughts:

PenguinPower is clearly missing internet here. I think he's probably town for the following reason:
He claimed to have not noticed getting the day start pm in posts 454 and 455. This is believable; as a list mod, he deals with other pms besides game pms. If he were scum, he'd have very likely made an ego post in his scum pt, and would have been more likely to notice that the game had started if his teammates had talked at all. I think it is unlikely that he pretended to have not known the game started.

Titus, WhemeStar, jjh927 are all super low activity here around the point where Retti is deciding on who to gladiate. (And that's suspicious, among other reasons to suspect them.)

[Andante, Titus, Whemestar, jjh927]

My solve is 2-3 mafia in the above pool, and 1-2 townies. I recommend killing everybody in that pool.

That's decent reasoning on Penguin. I don't see him faking that either. I want to wait until he gets back or there's a replacement anyway.

jj felt town since his return.

I want to go back here VOTE: T3

[WhemeStar]

My vote is just being wasted at this point and I think Titus is more likely as scum than Andante.
I'll end up changing back to Titus unless anyone convinces me otherwise.

Why not dunn?