In post 613, absinthe wrote:I wanted a player list I don't know super well since I wanted to play it on this account. unwnd joined after me, but I don't think we particularly vibe in games
I think that issue more comes with our circumstances. Last time we played I was trying to appeal to your sensibilities by undoing Bell's replacement. The other time (from memory) we were in separate threads and I eventually tilt-replaced out. I suppose there's that other game you won where I got limmed as your partner, but I digress.
I agree. There's also the Xeno game, but I was in that game for a very short day 1, and was posting in a 3 headed hydra. And as far as I knew/know that's the first game we've ever played.
The potential to mindmeld is there but it hasn't happened in a game so far. It doesn't feel like it's going to happen here, but it's early days, so.
In post 601, Infinity 324 wrote:Honestly I feel pretty good about my TRs on briar and ana, which means I think I like putting someone I also TR strongly at the keep. Absinthe would not be that player for me, but I do feel better about her than I did before.
The chances of any specific group of 3 being town is about 18% if I did my math right, which seems like something that's reasonable to try and go for. I also feel like it's reasonable to try and go for putting 2 scum in the same group (probably the wall) if we can. Then the gate could contain some null reads. Thoughts?
To be clear, this is what I think is optimal. Townreads at the keep, scumreads at the wall, nullreads at the gate.
In post 617, Infinity 324 wrote:@ffery You don't feel like you have a ton of drive here, it feels like you're applying a light touch. You had an early scumread on ana, but you didn't express it as "ana is definitely scum" or continued questioning. Another way I see drive manifest is extended analysis, but you didn't feel the need for that, instead you gave the thoughts that came to your mind and didn't feel the need to say more.
That read process got totally tangled up in my reaction to Anastasia's characterization of my scum game. It was a painful way to refine that eventual read, but here we are.
The level of analysis I've put into this game so far (whether it's entirely explicit or not) is miles beyond the Penultimate game. I don't expect town-you to be able to confidently read me off of 2 data points but holy shit you have to at least recognize there's very little room for comparison between these two games. Part of the reason I'm nowhere near townreading you here is because you don't seem to be drawing anything from that game with respect to this one.
In post 601, Infinity 324 wrote:Honestly I feel pretty good about my TRs on briar and ana, which means I think I like putting someone I also TR strongly at the keep. Absinthe would not be that player for me, but I do feel better about her than I did before.
The chances of any specific group of 3 being town is about 18% if I did my math right, which seems like something that's reasonable to try and go for. I also feel like it's reasonable to try and go for putting 2 scum in the same group (probably the wall) if we can. Then the gate could contain some null reads. Thoughts?
To be clear, this is what I think is optimal. Townreads at the keep, scumreads at the wall, nullreads at the gate.
I'm curious what made you decide scum reads should go to the wall? That is the one where we have to find the scum without an IC in there. If we put 3 people we are already suspicious of in there, wouldn't that increase the chances that we miselim there?
In post 620, Something_Smart wrote:I think the bottom line is that we want the Gate to have all the scummiest players after the swap (I THINK? I may try to math this out honestly because it's a costly thing to get wrong), and we want the Keep to have exactly one towny player after the swap. It's not totally clear what the best way to achieve that is, or even if there is a good way.
I'm not vehemently opposed to Infinity's idea, but I feel like I would prefer this: 2 townreads + 1 nullread at the Keep, any remaining strong townreads at the Wall, then fill out the Wall with the scummiest players and put the rest at the Gate.
The reasoning being: you need exactly 2 known townies to guarantee victory at the Keep. The third is superfluous, and we might as well put a hard-to-read player there instead. Putting a known townie at the Gate meanwhile makes it trivial for the scum to give us no information with the IC reveal. (At least make them work, if they want to do that.) So, we put other townreads at the Wall. Then, we don't want to stuff the Gate with scummy people because that gives scum more control over who gets IC'd, so we put the other scummy people at the Wall (which we would be happy to turn into a 50/50 since it's the hardest minigame) and the rest at the Gate.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
I'm personally wobbling back and forth between putting the null players at the Gate and the scummy ones, because I find it harder to sort in nulltown/unsure reads and having at least one cleared probably tells us a lot about what's happening, because those are the sorts of slots that I think? mafia try to position around the most, trying to uplift them because it's feasible while also like, keeping them as a potential miselim/push versus outright scummy ones where it's like, a bus or just hardpush. I think there's more nuance in how those sorts of former slots are treated and maybe they should go to the Gate.
In post 620, Something_Smart wrote:I think the bottom line is that we want the Gate to have all the scummiest players after the swap (I THINK? I may try to math this out honestly because it's a costly thing to get wrong), and we want the Keep to have exactly one towny player after the swap. It's not totally clear what the best way to achieve that is, or even if there is a good way.
I'm not vehemently opposed to Infinity's idea, but I feel like I would prefer this: 2 townreads + 1 nullread at the Keep, any remaining strong townreads at the Wall, then fill out the Wall with the scummiest players and put the rest at the Gate.
The reasoning being: you need exactly 2 known townies to guarantee victory at the Keep. The third is superfluous, and we might as well put a hard-to-read player there instead. Putting a known townie at the Gate meanwhile makes it trivial for the scum to give us no information with the IC reveal. (At least make them work, if they want to do that.) So, we put other townreads at the Wall. Then, we don't want to stuff the Gate with scummy people because that gives scum more control over who gets IC'd, so we put the other scummy people at the Wall (which we would be happy to turn into a 50/50 since it's the hardest minigame) and the rest at the Gate.
I think that this thought process is the one I most vibe with on a cursory read through.
Having a nullread at the Keep seems dangerous, because assuming that Ana is town, a nullread has a 3/7 chance to be scum and if they're not scum, and assuming we don't somehow go 3/3 mafteam in another group, I'd most likely get switched out to another group for a different nullread which basically fucks over the Keepgroup and how easy it's supposed to be.
I mean if Ana is the other consensus townread at the Keep then we can just tell the two people who end up there to vote for her and presumably at least one of them will.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
I am actually leaning towards locking myself in to the Wall at the moment.
Now that Briar + Ana are already locked into the Keep, I think the strategic benefit of me going there is a bit lost. And I do not want to go to the Gate, because I would prefer not to be the IC if possible.
@ffery I don't really agree that your analysis is miles beyond the penultimate game accounting for the activity of the thread. I don't see a reason to expect you to be incapable of faking this level of analysis as scum, because you seem like an analytical player in general. But that's not to say I didn't take into account the penultimate game--that's part of where my expectation of warmth came from, along with the interactions I've had with you out-of-game. You played well in that game and I was townreading you there by the end, and that game just doesn't really give me much useful data (especially without a town baseline really). I don't expect your scumgame to be blazing obvtown but besides that yeah.
In post 634, Anastasia wrote:i would think town ss would jump at the chance to untunnel me
you clearly don't know me at all, then
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
I'm not the kind of person who will do an impulsive suboptimal thing just to prove a point.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
There's just a small part of me that doesn't trust her despite everything because as a player I feel this is the sort of thing she would do as scum so holding her accountable to her willingness to vote someone who's not herself makes me more comfortable with her. Like, I'm pre-emptively neutering her as scum.
But I guess that her willingness to do that only extended to me/absinthe I think?
I guess I'm not sure what I made of that response S_S because you were talking about gambits earlier and in that theoretical where Ana is now with two unknowns who aren't me/absinthe you're kind of like "yeah, well, we vote Ana" and that's... it feels? At odds with what you've been positing, but I don't know if you just said Ana gets voted in that situation basing it off of /my/ read of Ana?
I've held my tongue a bit when it comes to coordination around who chooses what. I briefly touched upon my own ideals and why I chose my decision, but there a few things that ping me when it comes to everyone's assumptions.
For one, S_S earlier said something along the lines of 'giving reads are bad/help scum' and I never got the chance to understand why he felt that way. I think mechanical talk turns more into an obligation instead of something we can potentially use, so I'm not really getting a good read on the people who are focusing their attention on it (S_S/Lukewarm)
In post 640, Briar wrote:There's just a small part of me that doesn't trust her despite everything because as a player I feel this is the sort of thing she would do as scum so holding her accountable to her willingness to vote someone who's not herself makes me more comfortable with her.
Sure. But in that case, she would be the nullread at the Keep, so we'd need another townread there.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
In post 629, Lukewarm wrote:I'm curious what made you decide scum reads should go to the wall? That is the one where we have to find the scum without an IC in there. If we put 3 people we are already suspicious of in there, wouldn't that increase the chances that we miselim there?
I think the wall is the best place to aim for 2 scum so that scum can't put an obvtownie at the gate. I think we shouldn't put a ton of thought into the case where we can't get 2 scum in the same place, since scum have a lot of influence over the groupings in that case anyway.
I've spent, like, my last three posts disputing this and you're just glossing over them
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
In post 612, Lukewarm wrote:Wall: Me, Unwnd, Absinthe (aye, a repeat of our last game together )
We're not doing this if I have anything to say about it.
I am curious why you would be adamantly against it.
Like the one game the 3 of us played together in, was also my first game with you or unwnd (and my first game on this site period). If we were doing a repeat grouping, I would be a bit more equipped to handle it I think. I would be going in with two players that I have experience with personally, and 2 players I have seen interact together as well. Which is better then me going to the gate (and being IC'ed) with two people I have never played with imo
I really don't need the trauma. Given the reads on the table in that game, I recognise it probably wasn't town-winnable, but it was the first game in over 5 years that I was miselimed in elo, and I'd have to go back nearly another 5 years for another game where I was the game-losing miselim.
You're not townreading me here, so why should I expect a better outcome?
I like this game design because 1) I can't be N1K'd and 2) there are two minigames that don't involve the standard ELO.
