Mini 653 - Family Guy Mafia - Game over

[farside22]

[Peter and Brian have come across the destroyed news station to find Tom Tucker and Diane Simmons eating what appears to be ribs.]
Tom Tucker: So, what do you think, Diane? Can I cook, or what?
Diane Simmons: Delicious, Tom. I guess we should be eating her with chopsticks. [they both laugh]
Brian: Oh, my God! They're eating Asian reporter Tricia Takanawa!
Peter: That's crazy! They're just gonna be hungry again in an hour!

Vote count:

Not voting:

reborn537
LlamaFluff
Elvis_Knits
RestFermata
Save The Dragons

With 5 alive it will take 3 to lynch


Day 5 deadline is Oct 13, 9:00am PST

[RestFermata]

How's this? Today we lynch STD. Tonight I make myself into a Super Saint and E_K hammers me tomorrow, or vice versa. That way we've blown up all possible scum and there will be 1 person left. Would that work? I am not good at math.

[RestFermata]

It'd be just like 3-person SS3 on IRC, which I played yesterday.

[LlamaFluff]

That actually might work

[RestFermata]

If we do this, I will immediately self-vote in preparation for E_K to hammer me tomorrow. If she doesn't, we lynch her.

[RestFermata]

EBWOP. Thinking about it, I believe the plan is best if I convert myself into a Super Saint, because I am the only one who could be lying about the invention. By offering myself to be lynched, town wins whether I am scum or town. If I do not self-vote and allow myself to be hammered by E_K (or StD if that's who's alive!) then lynch me. Foolproof, unless you see any holes in it.

[Save The Dragons]

The only flaw in this plan is that it hands the game to reborn or LF if one of them are scum...or if RF isn't forthright about the invention she received. In fact, if she is scum, it is indeed a vigilante kill and I'm lynched, she's won the game. Although this scenario seems quite unlikely, because if I were scum with vig power, I wouldn't sit on it.

But other than that, I think it's a good idea (although I don't plan on voting for myself today). I personally would rather not die, because I know my alignment, and I worry that something unforeseen is going to hinder this plan, but since I guess I've warranted a lot of suspicion, I don't really think I have much say in this matter.

[RestFermata]

That's why I'm offering myself to be the Super Saint who is lynched. If I'm scum and not really a Super Saint, I die anyway, town wins with 2 alive. If the DR is a vig kill, I will have that power tomorrow night regardless. We are still lynching one of our top 3 suspects. That part of our strategy has not changed.

[RestFermata]

If LF or reborn are scum, I am afraid this game has already been lost. They are the most confirmed town we have. What can we do? We have to take out our prime suspects.

[Save The Dragons]

My point is that if you are scum and have another night kill, you lynch me during the day and off 2 people during the night. This means that you win, before we even have a chance to lynch you.

Even though it is a very small chance, for this reason, I'd prefer you as the first lynch, but I realize this ruins the plan as if we kill you, you cannot use supersaint powers.

[RestFermata]

What more can I say? I am telling the truth about the Super Saint device. I came right out the next day and admitted why I didn't use it. I don't think I could have foreseen this situation as scum.

But regardless, it's just my word. You don't have to believe it. If you lynch me, we still have a plan, but there's more chance involved. I believe this plan is the most foolproof.

Step 1.) Lynch E_K or StD
Step 2.) RF makes self into Super Saint
Step 3.) If RF lives through N5, she self-votes and forces E_K to hammer. If E_K refuses, E_K is lynched. If RF is killed N5, E_K is lynched.

[RestFermata]

EBWOP. I said Step 3 as if E_K would be the one alive, but it could be E_K or StD depending on who we lynch today. Personally, I prefer StD, but I'm willing to fluctuate.

E_K, what do you think about this plan?

I'll vote after everyone gets their opinions in.

[LlamaFluff]

I think Dragon is scum by interactions of other players in a few concise points

1) RF tried to shift a wagon to kloud late D1
2) EK seemed fine with a lynch of herself late D1

These actions dont make a whole lot of sense from scum to scum partner and as scum more accepting a lynch then anything else.

Whatever we do today though

RF has to hammer

[RestFermata]

I'm perfectly willing to withhold my vote to hammer.

I think StD's reluctance to accept my idea may not be genuine. I could see him being scum on his last leg, trying to resist an idea that leaves no more chance for a scum win. He himself admits that the chance of me being scum with a killing Death Ray that I've saved until this point is a small one, yet a 50% chance in endgame of lynching the wrong person and losing doesn't seem to bother him as much. I see flaws in those numbers. I see flaws in that logic. I detect scum. I think we should lynch him today to maximize our chances of winning early and not having to use the plan. But I won't cry if we end up lynching E_K because it doesn't really change much, except I think we will be less likely to win today. But I won't vote until the hammer. I also want to know what E_K thinks first.

[Save The Dragons]

I'm not saying I don't accept your idea. I'm trying to point out the flaws in the plan, which exist regardless of my alignment.

I don't want to get too comfortable with this plan so that we start thinking like this:

If LF or reborn are scum, I am afraid this game has already been lost.

I'd rather be sure that we take the best course of action, not find one that seems good and ignore all others.

1) RF tried to shift a wagon to kloud late D1
2) EK seemed fine with a lynch of herself late D1

Well, since I'm not scum,

a. one of those things must have happened
b. I can think of reasons why scum would do either. D1, imo, is a poor indicator of this sort of thing, because probability is on the side of the scum.

[reborn537]

RF -

I'm shocked you haven't used the death ray. I'm also shocked that LF didn't use a power and there were no deaths

[RestFermata]

Why are you shocked that I haven't used the death ray yet? Making someone into a Super Saint is a risky move. I couldn't think of a way to use it that couldn't have had drastic consequences for the town. Now that the player pool has diminished a bit I think it is more useful because we don't care so much if town dies anymore, just as long as the last scum dies at the same time. There's a lot less to lose.

[elvis_knits]

How's this? Today we lynch STD. Tonight I make myself into a Super Saint and E_K hammers me tomorrow, or vice versa. That way we've blown up all possible scum and there will be 1 person left. Would that work? I am not good at math.

I think this is a good plan. I'm willing to go with it. I don't really think RF is mafia, although LF's suspicions are causing me to give her another look. This plan would kill her, so if she's mafia, she's dead and town wins. So, that would be fine, even if I have to die by supersaint. Blaze of glory!

Actually, the fact that RF is willing to do this makes me think she's not mafia, because it makes it impossible for her to win. And makes me more confident that STD is scum.

I do want to think on this for a bit, because we have to accept that LF and reborn are town, and basically hand them the game if they are scum. I don't really think that either are scum, but I want to think a bit more. The invention that reborn gave me leads me to believe that he is trying to help the town, and that he wanted it to be used during the day. However, the machine does not work as he intended, not during the day, and not the action it seems he was looking for.

Also, the invention may have some bearing on tomorrow, if STD is not scum and the game is not over. I don't think I should claim what it does as I want scum to be in the dark. But it's a pretty powerful action.

[elvis_knits]

I also am wondering how LF and reborn feel about each other. Do they have any reservations about the other one?

[reborn537]

If LF is scum I say good game. BUT why was there no death last night?

[LlamaFluff]

Im confident enough about reborn being town to go through with the plan

[elvis_knits]

If LF is scum I say good game. BUT why was there no death last night?

I think because scum chose to no kill since they thought LF was using a block last night and hoped that would implicate someone else had been blocked to stop a kill.

[RestFermata]

I think that reborn and LF are the most confirmed players we have. I believe the scum must be among StD and E_K, probably StD because he strikes me as squirming scum right now, opposing my plan in an illogical, half-ass way because that's all he

can

do at this point.

[Save The Dragons]

...did you even read my last post?

[RestFermata]

Yes, I did. And you might indeed be genuinely pointing out the flaws in my plan, which I appreciate. I don't want anything to go wrong. I'm listening to what you're saying. I am afraid of the consequences if we do this and reborn or LF is scum. But think of it this way. If you

were

scum, how would you react to a plan like this? if we go through with it, you know your game is over. If you oppose it

too

strongly, you run the risk of revealing yourself. So you have to push against it a little without going overboard. My point is that between you and E_K, you are reacting to my plan in a way that is more likely to be scum.

The thing is, I have no reason to believe reborn is scum. I have no reason to believe LF is scum. If you can give me grounds to suspect either of them--or grounds to believe there is a scum inventor or scum JOAT

along with

a possible scum tracker (we don't know if Kloud was telling the truth, but his flavor rolename

was

Stalker)--then please do. But saying "anything's possible, so I'd prefer that we lynch you instead" doesn't cut it for me. If your top suspects aren't E_K and I, or if you have a good reason why you don't think we should kill off all the top suspects, I'd like to hear it.

Through all of this, I want you to know that I'm not blindly sold to my plan. I'm just saying that StD's supposed "flaws" in the plan don't satisfy me. Especially the one about me being scum with an extra kill. I KNOW that's not true, so of course I'm not going to agree with that.