Micro 1010: Divide and Conquer: Round 2 - Game Over!

[Vanderscamp]

VOTE: not_mafia

I have lukewarm leaning scum and Norwegian leaning town.

[Lukewarm]

UNVOTE:

[Dunnstral]

I have reconsidered, and I think I am on now leaning towards voting from within the 6 player neighborhood now.

I think I have come to the conclusion that shooting in the 6p neighborhood is better even if we miss Day 1

If we hit the 6p mafia:
Day 1 - Town wins automatically
Day 2 - Town gains 2 confirmed town for Day 3

If we hit the 3p mafia
Day 1 - Town gains 1 Confirmed town for Day 2
Day 2 - Town gains nothing

There is just a much higher reward for hunting within the 6p Mafia

If we vote wrong the mafia kill likely lands in the group of 6, making it easier to figure out

I actually agree that getting out the 3-person hood mafia today makes the game harder than miseliming in the 6 person hood

Going to try to not respond to every single one of these but this stance is absurd

Why?

[Lukewarm]

My gut reaction to this set up, is that it makes more sense to eliminate from the 3 person neighborhood, unless someone from the 6 person neighborhood really stands out as a scum read.

We did the math last game on killing into the different pools and there was something like a 4% increase in win rate by going small pool first, practically I think it is even better because it ensures one mafia dead at some point in the game, which I think is a lot more valuable than the zero value that an assumption of random killing attributes to it.

But last game the scummiest person was the scum in the big pool and we just killed them D1 for an easy game.

So I looked back at the last game.

It is interesting that you site back that the math was done in the last game, without acknowledging that Bingle was the one that did the math, and that he was town that game, and that he also concluded that it was still better to shoot in the 6P pool.

I have been informed by a monkey that I should treat Bingle's mechanical talk as gospel, regardless of his alignment, but here I can clearly see that ConfirmedTown Bingle made the case that shooting from the 6P pool first is the better strategy.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Thank you Lukewarm.

[Lukewarm]

If anyone is interested in the math, but does not want to look back at the last game, here is a summary of what I saw from Bingle's iso last game.

The math Vandercamp is talking about was based on if we shoot completely at random with every single elimination. If that is the case, we get a 44% chance of winning by starting from the 3p pool, compared to a 40% chance of starting with the 6p.

However, Bingle also said that we gain a lot more information starting from the 6p pool, which should mean we stop shooting at random sooner, therefore making up the small difference between the fully random winrates.

[Lukewarm]

If anyone is interested in the math, but does not want to look back at the last game, here is a summary of what I saw from Bingle's iso last game.

The math Vandercamp is talking about was based on if we shoot completely at random with every single elimination. If that is the case, we get a 44% chance of winning by starting from the 3p pool, compared to a 40% chance of starting with the 6p.

However, Bingle also said that we gain a lot more information starting from the 6p pool, which should mean we stop shooting at random sooner, therefore making up the small difference between the fully random winrates.

[NorwegianboyEE]

I feel like N_M is more scummy than Bingle atm. Though my read on Bingle is far from as strong as i’d like it to be.
Though i’m never voting either of Bingle/N_M today.

[NorwegianboyEE]

I still get this paranoid feeling that Bingle could have looked at me as someone he can convince and therefore put me in a hood with him.

[marcistar]

I also think n_m is the scummiest person in the small pool so far for a pretty similar reason, I'm pretty sure he's posted more times so far this game than in the entire game we just played together, and if I thought he was tabled from contention today I would be very far from kind of glad about it.

I have lukewarm leaning scum and Norwegian leaning town.

do u have any fresh takes

[GuiltyLion]

I really dislike the last line (and not just because I dislike the notion of refusing to vote into the 3p pool)

I also think n_m is the scummiest person in the small pool so far for a pretty similar reason, I'm pretty sure he's posted more times so far this game than in the entire game we just played together, and if I thought he was tabled from contention today I would be very far from kind of glad about it.

can you be explicit/clarify for me your thought process here:

are you saying that you think Lukewarm is scum with N_M, and is cheekily using the "vote in the 6pool" logic to distance from his buddy while claiming he's glad he doesn't actually have to vote there? Do you really think that's a likely comment to come from scum!Lukewarm paired with scum!N_M - I think scum are usually pretty self-conscious about talking about their buddy, I generally don't think they're likely to say "I'm glad I don't have to vote there today". If he's going to distance from his buddy, why would he not take a more strong stance? what scum agenda did his post actually serve here?

I find the alternate explanation - that town!Lukewarm feels N_M is a hard slot to effectively sort and is somewhat relieved he doesn't have to correctly evaluate him today - to be a lot more natural and likely. It kinda feels to me like you found a convenient reason to shade Lukewarm ("he says he's 'kind of glad' he might not vote his scumread, that doesn't sound like a townie thing to say!!") rather than you're actually thinking about how and whether his posts indicate his alignment. Not to mention the odds of a NM/Lukewarm team are generally low in a vacuum, so tying them together in this way is always going to be specious reasoning.

[GuiltyLion]

as an addendum to the above, I could vibe with your sentiment more if you are saying the comment from Lukewarm is scummy in the town!N_M world. But given that you're voting NM and claimed him as your strongest scumread, I don't see how that comment from Lukewarm pings you as partner-y. I would think it's better evidence for potential T-S alignment than shared S-S alignment.

[Not_Mafia]

None of GL’s reads feel sincere to me

[NorwegianboyEE]

oh lmao you're right, I read that the setup was Mountainous and assumed that meant no NKs for some reason

fully disregard that point then

@N_M do you think this is a staged towntell or genuine?

[Lukewarm]

oh lmao you're right, I read that the setup was Mountainous and assumed that meant no NKs for some reason

fully disregard that point then

@N_M do you think this is a staged towntell or genuine?

I think I would like the answer to this question from you and bingle as well.

[Not_Mafia]

oh lmao you're right, I read that the setup was Mountainous and assumed that meant no NKs for some reason

fully disregard that point then

@N_M do you think this is a staged towntell or genuine?

That does look genuine tbf

[Bingle]

Hoppy, when did you talk to FL about norwee?

[Bingle]

oh lmao you're right, I read that the setup was Mountainous and assumed that meant no NKs for some reason

fully disregard that point then

@N_M do you think this is a staged towntell or genuine?

I think I would like the answer to this question from you and bingle as well.

Full NAI.

I think mountainous->night less is a term replacement equally likely to be misread as town and scum.

[NorwegianboyEE]

oh lmao you're right, I read that the setup was Mountainous and assumed that meant no NKs for some reason

fully disregard that point then

@N_M do you think this is a staged towntell or genuine?

I think I would like the answer to this question from you and bingle as well.

Full NAI.

I think mountainous->night less is a term replacement equally likely to be misread as town and scum.

Do you think the same when considering that scum would get a lot of time beforehand to think about the setup and how they are to plan out the neighborhoods/the game?

[Lukewarm]

@Norwee, how do you feel about it? Staged towntell or genuine?

[NorwegianboyEE]

Genuine.

[Lukewarm]

There was something interesting with GL that happened in the Neighborhood as well. He devised a plan to trick the mafia in the 3p neighborhood, but someone had to tell him that mafia had daytalk. Which he said he had not realized.
.
So he either really misunderstood what mafia could do in this game. Or he bluffed twice, in both chats, about different mechanics.

[NorwegianboyEE]

GL is very likely town.

[NorwegianboyEE]

I feel like Lukewarm is town, but i’m also hesitant to townread because i don’t know how good they are as scum.

[Bingle]

Do you think the same when considering that scum would get a lot of time beforehand to think about the setup and how they are to plan out the neighborhoods/the game?

Fair point. I hadn't considered the intersection of planning NK's and neighborhoods in the context of that post.