Open 812 Guardians of the Fortress - Game Over

[Dunnstral]

Almost certain you said the exact opposite of the bolded during Day 1. Will go back to cross reference once I am caught up

I want you to go back to 769 and tell me what you think I was saying

You said that if Birar+Ana were town, and you were scum, then you would have already locked yourself into the Keep. You continued the argument to the conclusion that "I sort of doubt briar + ana as town." Then you went on to say that "logically" there must be a scum in the 3 of [Briar+ana+absinthe]

But that you felt like people were missing some other point you were trying to make.

I then dedicated many posts to trying to understand this so called "misunderstood point." And you stopped responding.

Spoiler:

I am asking what is the incentive to a scum locking themselves into the Keep.

If they lose the Keep minigame if they lock in early AND they lose the minigame if they don't lock in early

Then how are you using the fact that they did not lock in early to draw any conclusions?

I don't think we should discuss optimal scum strategy for them lol

He is claiming, that based on his logic there is most likely 1 scum between you+Briar.
We are considering hanging the Keep's minigame on collectively town reading you+Briar.

If his logic makes sense, then we absolutely should discuss it, because that would mean we need to re-examine our town reads on you+Briar
If his logic is flawed, then we are giving the scum team flawed advice anyways, so it does not matter.

If you + Briar are both in the keep, and both town read, the scum have lost this minigame - unless they can make us doubt the town read on Briar+you.

So imo, either dunn is scum, trying to cast doubt on you+Briar being town, or he is town and has figured out some reason we should not trust the town reads on you+Briar that the rest of the lobby missed.

Either way, I want to hear from him.

If you guys still think I'm throwing doubt at the players already in the keep you don't fundamentally understand what I'm arguing

It's not bravado, this is a continuation of me saying what I'd do if I were scum here, and why I sort of doubt briar + ana as town

:roll: :roll:

That there's scum in those 3? Logically yes, but it feels like nobody understands what I'm getting at, so actually no.

I got only eyes for you, and I am dying for you to enlighten me.

I left a clear possibility that you were town who had figued something out that everyone missed, and that I very much wanted to understand your point, and you just never came back :(

...Did you completely miss where I said 'but actually no'?

Look at 1170

[Something_Smart]

Do you feel like your scum game is weaker than Infinity's?

My scumgame is highly inconsistent. I haven't played versus scum-Infinity in a very long time; iirc her game was fine but nothing special, but that was before her hiatus so I have no idea if it looks the same nowadays.

[Marashu]

Official Vote Count 2.02

---

Gate

catboi (0):
Something_Smart (0):
absinthe (0):
Not Voting (3): catboi, Something_Smart, absinthe

Wall

unwnd (0):
Lukewarm (0):
Dunnstral (0):
Not Voting (3): unwnd, Lukewarm, Dunnstral

Keep

Briar (0):
Anastasia (0):
Infinity 324(0):
Not Voting (3): Briar, Anastasia, Infinity 324

Deadline:

(expired on 2021-05-22 23:00:54).

Mod notes:

You may only vote within your location

[Dunnstral]

The last thing I wanted to do yesterday was explain in great detail how this was actually an optimal move for scum to make, only for somebody to finally clue in and actually execute it

I started explaining that I thought ana and briar were suspicious because of the lack of such a move, but because nobody seemed to understand what I was talking about, I concluded that I was dealing with a scum team that wasn't thinking about this sort of thing

[Something_Smart]

Not true because I literally have to read both of you

Well you don't

have

to but sure, it's a worthy goal. Is it really harder for you to wrap your head around a scumread on you than it would be for a different scumread?

[catboi]

Is infinity fairly inexperienced as scum?

In limited experience she ran out of steam after an ok start

[Lukewarm]

...Do you still not understand?

I'm saying that on day 1, mafia would have a greater chance of winning the game if they put someone in the keep.

It 'sacrifices' somebody, but

in reality, that player was lost anyway

, so they're not losing anything. If they don't do that, they'll have to send someone to the keep, and it's very unlikely that the person they send gets picked or even treated as anything other than mafia.

This is what happened here. They let absinthe take the slot, and then infinity got sent over and they confirmed absinthe as to have the least impact because it doesn't matter who of absinthe or infinty was scum if the keep was resolved first by choosing briar or ana, and then that reveals the alignment of infinity and gives an idea on absinthe.

If they had put infinity in during day 1, the day would have probably ended in a 1-1-1 split, or maybe some variation of 2-0-1/0-2-1. The wifom potential would be there, either way, making it a lot harder to figure things out.

Right now there's 2 people being considered in the Gate, 3 people being considered in the Wall, 1 person being considered in the Keep (as scum)

If somebody had sacrificed themself:

There would be 3 people being considered in the Gate, 3 people being considered in the Wall, 1 person being considered in the Keep

There would be 2 people under suspicion either way at the Gate, because of the innocent child.
There was going to be 1 person under suspicion either way at the Keep, either the scum-claim-insta-lock-in or the person swapped in.
And you said yourself that there are 3 possibilities at the Wall in both scenarios.

What you are claiming here is simply not true. The number of people under suspicion in each area is the same either way.

[unwnd]

Not true because I literally have to read both of you

Well you don't

have

to but sure, it's a worthy goal. Is it really harder for you to wrap your head around a scumread on you than it would be for a different scumread?

My heightened feeling probably has to deal with the circumstances instead of a natural cause of things

I don't mind when people scumread me, but it's not that simple this time

[Dunnstral]

What you are claiming here is simply not true. The number of people under suspicion in each area is the same either way.

The mafia would have been able to use the swap for wifom, and there would be less content to go off of as to where everyone else placed themselves (i.e. S_S wanting infinity at the wall, and catboi locking into the gate early would both matter much less if there was also scum in the keep)

[catboi]

Is us both scumreading you going to make reading us harder somehow? IDGI

[Dunnstral]

Anyways, last two scum are Lukewarm and catboi

I don't think Luke is scum. To me, the wall comes down to you or unwnd.

All Luke talks about is:

-Keep Mechanics
-My briar/ana read
-my mech talk about scum going into the keep and how that relates to my briar/ana read

[unwnd]

Is us both scumreading you going to make reading us harder somehow? IDGI

Yes because you're both going to be cagey with me given that you believe I'm scum

[Dunnstral]

I think I can see your worldview but I'm going to be honest

Thinking about mech in less conventional ways usually fucks with my head. I can work with reasoning being applied to mech but the reason I've retracted my read on S_S is that his content is almost all mech and I shouldn't just give it a pass because it sounds interesting

So you need to explain how you're ruling out Luke here

[unwnd]

I think I can see your worldview but I'm going to be honest

Thinking about mech in less conventional ways usually fucks with my head. I can work with reasoning being applied to mech but the reason I've retracted my read on S_S is that his content is almost all mech and I shouldn't just give it a pass because it sounds interesting

So you need to explain how you're ruling out Luke here

I read Luke's mech as in over his head instead of carefully placed like S_S would do it

[Something_Smart]

Yes because you're both going to be cagey with me given that you believe I'm scum

I don't think I will. At least I'll try not to.

[Dunnstral]

I don't understand how everybody is looking at Luke write paragraphs on mech and thinking that they're either over their head or not a bold player

It seems obvious to me that they have some experience

[catboi]

Is us both scumreading you going to make reading us harder somehow? IDGI

Yes because you're both going to be cagey with me given that you believe I'm scum

I don't get it

[unwnd]

Scum doesn't need to work with people, they just need to pretend their arguments and convictions are town-motivated. You both don't really gain anything from being considerate of my slot, therefore I'm going to give less valuable information compared to someone you had to at least fake townread

[Anastasia]

Would this game have been harder if scum had scumclaimed and locked themself in the keep day 1, yes or no?

I don't see anyone here who would kamikaze as scum

That includes ana

I would. I would have locked myself into the keep. It's not like I was particularly townread.

That's also not what I asked, I asked if it would be harder, not if scum would actually do it

So what, like a feint? Scumclaim just to prove a point?

...Do you still not understand?

I'm saying that on day 1, mafia would have a greater chance of winning the game if they put someone in the keep.

It 'sacrifices' somebody, but

in reality, that player was lost anyway

, so they're not losing anything. If they don't do that, they'll have to send someone to the keep, and it's very unlikely that the person they send gets picked or even treated as anything other than mafia.

This is what happened here. They let absinthe take the slot, and then infinity got sent over and they confirmed absinthe as to have the least impact because it doesn't matter who of absinthe or infinty was scum if the keep was resolved first by choosing briar or ana, and then that reveals the alignment of infinity and gives an idea on absinthe.

If they had put infinity in during day 1, the day would have probably ended in a 1-1-1 split, or maybe some variation of 2-0-1/0-2-1. The wifom potential would be there, either way, making it a lot harder to figure things out.

Right now there's 2 people being considered in the Gate, 3 people being considered in the Wall, 1 person being considered in the Keep (as scum)

If somebody had sacrificed themself:

There would be 3 people being considered in the Gate, 3 people being considered in the Wall, 1 person being considered in the Keep

I think Dunn believes this to be true :3

[Something_Smart]

I think Dunn believes this to be true

+1

[Lukewarm]

...Did you completely miss where I said 'but actually no'?

Look at 1170

My issue is that during Day 1, you did not explain the "but actually no." And then multiple people asked you to explain it better, and you just didn't. Instead you dropped out of the conversation until you could lock in the set up.

I am going to go back and read 1170 again, and try my best not to tunnel you over this, but you locking Day 1, without comment, after I asked you ever so nicely to explain it to me, is not a great place for us to be starting today off. Because now, if you are town, the only way we win this game is if you can convince me to over look all of that.

Like, I really wanted to understand you during Day 1

That there's scum in those 3? Logically yes, but it feels like nobody understands what I'm getting at, so actually no.

I got only eyes for you, and I am dying for you to enlighten me.

[unwnd]

Scum doesn't need to work with people, they just need to pretend their arguments and convictions are town-motivated. You both don't really gain anything from being considerate of my slot, therefore I'm going to give less valuable information compared to someone you had to at least fake townread

Therefore I'm going to get* less valuable information

[Lukewarm]

The last thing I wanted to do yesterday was explain in great detail how this was actually an optimal move for scum to make, only for somebody to finally clue in and actually execute it

I started explaining that I thought ana and briar were suspicious because of the lack of such a move, but because nobody seemed to understand what I was talking about, I concluded that I was dealing with a scum team that wasn't thinking about this sort of thing

Okay....
So I think this is the first time I have seen something from you that makes sense as to why a town!you might have handled it this way. Like I read all of your other posts in Day 2, and still did not see a reason, but here is a reasonable one.

Spoiler:

Trying. Not. To. Tunnel.

[catboi]

Scum doesn't need to work with people, they just need to pretend their arguments and convictions are town-motivated. You both don't really gain anything from being considerate of my slot, therefore I'm going to give less valuable information compared to someone you had to at least fake townread

Therefore I'm going to get* less valuable information

But town should have a genuine interest in sorting you, right? Can you not try to distinguish that? You're confusing me here

[Lukewarm]

I don't understand how everybody is looking at Luke write paragraphs on mech and thinking that they're either over their head or not a bold player

It seems obvious to me that they have some experience

Absinthe, unwnd, and catboi have all watched me very boldly be very wrong in prior games, so I do have a reputation in this lobby