Open 812 Guardians of the Fortress - Game Over

[Anastasia]

so you should want to jump in the wall with unwnd then?

[Anastasia]

I don't follow, I'm sorry.

[Anastasia]

I am simultaneously thrilled and extremely scared because it's finally happening!!

[Anastasia]

I'm likely town for her but this is not outside of my scum-range so she can't mail it in.

[Anastasia]

no snap votes please! <3

See you all on the other side.

[Anastasia]

I think my solve of SS-Infinity-Unwnd was right

[Anastasia]

I am willing to vote for Briar but I would caution her not to vote for me or anyone else as Infinity could scum-hammer to cut us off from the game.

[Anastasia]

I am kind of sad I didn't get to test my infinity-unwnd-ss solve yesterday and now we have to actually use an elimination on it :<

[Anastasia]

Unwnd who do you want to eliminate from the Wall?

[Anastasia]

yea I think Dunn is the only person you could make a case for

[Anastasia]

Dunn why did you hammer Wall?

[Anastasia]

if Unwnd/Luke are both town then he needs to jump on the wall to prevent an auto-lose

[Anastasia]

the town motivation he should've said was because he townread luke/unwnd and he wanted to go for the auto-win but he didn't say that :<

[Anastasia]

I'm pretty sure infinity has given up on this game to come here

[Anastasia]

the town motivation he should've said was because he townread luke/unwnd and he wanted to go for the auto-win but he didn't say that :<

I didn't say that because it's not true. I thought that there was 1 scum between unwnd/luke already.

oh I see.

ok

[Anastasia]

i mean if you're scum and unwnd/luke are T/T then you need to jump on the wall because if a townie jumps on the wall the game is over.

[Anastasia]

If I were scum and Briar/Ana were both town, I'd already be in the Keep

I'd treat this as a scumclaim

does infinity say this about a partner?

[Anastasia]

i mean if you're scum and unwnd/luke are T/T then you need to jump on the wall because if a townie jumps on the wall the game is over.

*the townie. any one of the 3 scum would have to go to the wall before the single townie did, and they'd need to do so in a way that doesn't look like a scumclaim... right?

SS are you TMIing catboi town?

[Anastasia]

SS are you TMIing catboi town?

No, that statement holds true if there are three scum in Dunn/catboi/S_S/Infinity as you are suggesting, regardless of who those three are.

catboi is already at the keep and you should know catboi is scum from your pov lol

[Anastasia]

i mean Catboi is already at the Gate and from your POV catboi is guranteed scum. Why do you still have him in your townie pool?

[Anastasia]

catboi is already at the keep and you should know catboi is scum from your pov lol

And I do. So?

so if Unwnd/Luke are T/T then the risk to Dunn is that YOU hammer wall before he does.

The way you put it, it's a hypothetical townie lol

[Anastasia]

@Catboi/SS

You two have a valuable piece of information none of the rest of us have.

You know for certain the identity of a mafia player between the two of you.

You should be trying to look at the ISO to use that information to help us solve the Wall <3

[Anastasia]

the way you two solve for the wall is pretty important for figuring out the right one between the two of you to flip

remember the scum on the Gate can't really bus the scum on the Wall if the Keep is already townsided.

[Anastasia]

Okay, Ana, hear me out...

I think that S_S might be town for how Infinity was pushing him versus catboi.

(I'm treating Infinity like she's flipped scum currently which, maybe is not the best method but it's the likely outcome here.)

that's a great point <3

I think we should keep hammering SS tho cuz Catboi is way smoother than him as scum and there's a chance we can get SS to towntell

[Anastasia]

I'm pretty sure I was far more hostile towards infinity-SS scum pairing than Absinthe was?

[Anastasia]

aaaaaah you are scaring me :<

[Anastasia]

Infinity does seem kind of burned out tho

I think she gets sent to the keep regardless of her partner?

[Anastasia]

Would this game have been harder if scum had scumclaimed and locked themself in the keep day 1, yes or no?

I don't see anyone here who would kamikaze as scum

That includes ana

I would. I would have locked myself into the keep. It's not like I was particularly townread.

That's also not what I asked, I asked if it would be harder, not if scum would actually do it

So what, like a feint? Scumclaim just to prove a point?

...Do you still not understand?

I'm saying that on day 1, mafia would have a greater chance of winning the game if they put someone in the keep.

It 'sacrifices' somebody, but

in reality, that player was lost anyway

, so they're not losing anything. If they don't do that, they'll have to send someone to the keep, and it's very unlikely that the person they send gets picked or even treated as anything other than mafia.

This is what happened here. They let absinthe take the slot, and then infinity got sent over and they confirmed absinthe as to have the least impact because it doesn't matter who of absinthe or infinty was scum if the keep was resolved first by choosing briar or ana, and then that reveals the alignment of infinity and gives an idea on absinthe.

If they had put infinity in during day 1, the day would have probably ended in a 1-1-1 split, or maybe some variation of 2-0-1/0-2-1. The wifom potential would be there, either way, making it a lot harder to figure things out.

Right now there's 2 people being considered in the Gate, 3 people being considered in the Wall, 1 person being considered in the Keep (as scum)

If somebody had sacrificed themself:

There would be 3 people being considered in the Gate, 3 people being considered in the Wall, 1 person being considered in the Keep

I think Dunn believes this to be true :3

[Anastasia]

Spoiler:

Would this game have been harder if scum had scumclaimed and locked themself in the keep day 1, yes or no?

I don't see anyone here who would kamikaze as scum

That includes ana

I would. I would have locked myself into the keep. It's not like I was particularly townread.

That's also not what I asked, I asked if it would be harder, not if scum would actually do it

So what, like a feint? Scumclaim just to prove a point?

...Do you still not understand?

I'm saying that on day 1, mafia would have a greater chance of winning the game if they put someone in the keep.

It 'sacrifices' somebody, but

in reality, that player was lost anyway

, so they're not losing anything. If they don't do that, they'll have to send someone to the keep, and it's very unlikely that the person they send gets picked or even treated as anything other than mafia.

This is what happened here. They let absinthe take the slot, and then infinity got sent over and they confirmed absinthe as to have the least impact because it doesn't matter who of absinthe or infinty was scum if the keep was resolved first by choosing briar or ana, and then that reveals the alignment of infinity and gives an idea on absinthe.

If they had put infinity in during day 1, the day would have probably ended in a 1-1-1 split, or maybe some variation of 2-0-1/0-2-1. The wifom potential would be there, either way, making it a lot harder to figure things out.

Right now there's 2 people being considered in the Gate, 3 people being considered in the Wall, 1 person being considered in the Keep (as scum)

If somebody had sacrificed themself:

There would be 3 people being considered in the Gate, 3 people being considered in the Wall, 1 person being considered in the Keep

I think Dunn believes this to be true :3

I think Dunn believes this to be true

+1

Am losing my general frustration at Dunn.

Reading this again, I also think he might believe this to be true as well, regardless of his alignment.

wouldn't him believing this to be true imply that he has to be town here?

[Anastasia]

I think his point is that two scum in the wall is better than two scum in the gate because it gives us an extra IC

[Anastasia]

his suspicion of you comes from you not playing optimally but I'm not sure you can be expected to play optimally.

[Anastasia]

the scum are forced to swap you into the 2 scum group.

if the 2 scum are at the wall, then you get swapped into the wall but dont become an IC, they must give us an additional IC at the gate.

if the 2 scum are at the gate, then you get swapped into the gate and become an IC.

[Anastasia]

I think his point is that two scum in the wall is better than two scum in the gate because it gives us an extra IC

I was not capable of forcing two scum in the wall

Well not by yourself you are not.


but by going to the wall, you made sure there was no way for 2 scum to end up at the wall.

[Anastasia]

I think what Dunn did was suboptimal for town but I kind of believe his thought process in getting there.

[Anastasia]

<3 Unwnd

I feel bad for you in so many ways and I wish I thought you were town

[Anastasia]

Well you don't need to "prove" it per se.

If you're town, you just need to correctly solve in the Gate and we shall win together.

[Anastasia]

I do feel awful though if I've been wrong about you all along sorry <3

[Anastasia]

I guess I feel bad about how conf-biased I am on your slot, I want to give you a fair shot but I think the other two have towntold a lot more than you and thats why I'm still holding out hope that you sweep me off my feet with an amazing solve that I know you are capable of <3

[Anastasia]

I agree that it's unfair to you that they are clearing themselves off mech nonsense.

[Anastasia]

lol you don't have to worry about us rushing this

[Anastasia]

See now you're just trying to win my heart, saying that in my time of need

I mean I've played plenty of positions sitting in the seat you are now where I'm being held to some absurd standard because my opponents happen to be able to clear themselves off things that shouldn't exist so I feel a great deal of sympathy for you.

[Anastasia]

Infinity,

I love you dearly but I just wanted to let you know that the odds of you making me feel an ounce of doubt in my heart that Briar is scum is roughly equivalent to the odds of a single raindrop landing on a blade of grass.

[Anastasia]

besides you don't actually need to convince either of us that the other is scum,

you can just vote for whichever one of us you believe is town.

that person will self-vote so it doesn't really even matter for us.

[Anastasia]

I had a dream Ana was scum. ;_; Never posting right before bed again.

<3

[Anastasia]

100%, no doubts.

I have no doubts <3

[Anastasia]

I'll be honest I've been sleeping like a baby thinking I've had the game solved already for the last three nights.

[Anastasia]

But that's why I <3 you unwnd, you have dedication I could not even aspire to reach!

[Anastasia]

but you can't run from who you are.

[Anastasia]

In the interests of not having half this table informed tiptoeing around my identity/meta when I’m not actively hiding it: I’m Ydrasse.

I felt like your tone was off from normal ydrasse, huh.

You also said you were playing league not TFT. You trickster.

Well she was playing league that night

[Anastasia]

She's literally pocketed me twice

I have scars

I've never been pocketed by her, I want at least one time.

[Anastasia]

You can tell me if I'm right about this guess in the postgame.

Spoiler: Why Infinity Came Back

The original scum plan was for infinity to pretend to be a tree in order to give as little information as possible.

As the evening wore on, the scumside realized that infinity's continued silence meant that me and briar would both be psuedo-ICs and could stay in the thread for longer, leaving Keep unresolved and weighing down the game state.

Realizing that this would be bad for them, they asked infinity to come back to the game to cast doubt on the Keep again in an attempt to reduce Briar/Me's influence on the game state.

This implies that I'm on the right path and my solve is indeed correct. Unwnd is scum and he needed Infinity to come back to salvage the situation or at least resolve Keep early so that he has the room to operate.

[Anastasia]

It's a desperate move that implies the scum are really on the back foot in this game, the reason for it happening was Lukewarm/Dunn beginning to townread each other based on mech and unwnd finding his position more untenable.

[Anastasia]

Can someone who knows ana tell me if she's, like, out of her scumrange? She's a strong scum player but the way she's approaching this feels so pure

I have an infinite scum range

you don't have to worry about me because I'm just gonna vote for Ydrasse like 100% of the time when it comes to that time.

[Anastasia]

I think you at least owe me the ability to vote first.

Sure infinity I'll let you vote just for the sake of completeness.

[Anastasia]

Ana if my dream was right I still love you.

Briar I love you no matter what <3

[Anastasia]

I think as soon as our collective minds are made up about how we want the rest of the game to play out we can resolve the keep.

I have my preliminary solve down but I want to give the players in gate/wall a chance to sort themselves before I put something down for final.

[Anastasia]

tbh your scum and town metas are very divergent for me, jarringly so.

[Anastasia]

there's this thing about motivation.

You see if we are decided on unwnd as the flip for the wall - he will die 100% of the time first.

However this is where the divergence happens:

Unwnd must make a "solve" for the gate before he dies.


(A)
For Town!Unwnd, he knows that he will flip town, and the solve for the gate will be the one that either wins or loses the game for the town. So he will feel the weight of the responsibility to come up with the correct answer and he will pour his soul and effort into it, to come up with a solution that he is certain is correct or at least as close to it as possible.

(B)
For Scum!Unwnd, he knows he will flip scum, the Keep will resolve townside and the game is effectively over, it does not matter what solve he creates. He has no need or motivation to fool anyone.


Can Scum!Unwnd muster the same effort and determination in Scenario (B) as he would in Scenario (A)? When all his effort and thought would ultimately be fruitless and pointless?

This is something very hard to fake. To pour yourself into something that is completely futile and pointless for you to do.

[Anastasia]

I think you at least owe me the ability to vote first.

Sure infinity I'll let you vote just for the sake of completeness.

I feel like an idiot for doing this if you're scum because now you have a chance of winning when you didn't before, but sigh

You can always punt the decision to me I don't care, I'll vote for Briar no problem.

[Anastasia]

well I do hope you sweep me off my feet <3

[Anastasia]

I think you're trying to put doubt into my heart but my heart is closed and she has me completely.

[Anastasia]

I do appreciate you trying though! <3

[Anastasia]

I don't actually need to try very hard at all since I am certain Briar is town.

[Anastasia]

Then why did you go through all the effort of making up your theory?

When scum is guiltied town doesn't need to think of "hmm what could the scum being doing here?" You just ignore their posts because they're all WIFOM.

You taking effort to justify why I'm scum means you know in your heart I'm town.

because your effort implies something about the rest of the game state?

I've already laid out why you were absent yesterday and came in today.

[Anastasia]

But why isn't it just WIFOM?

Only if you have the foresight to know what I would think of your move.

[Anastasia]

I feel like scum!dunn would try to find a way to get more influence about the game rather than talking about theories everyone disagrees with. If he's scum here, he played pretty inflexibly and he's better than that.

see this is wifom where you try to say someone who we think is town, is town.

[Anastasia]

You give away valuable information about who your partners are?

[Anastasia]

Well I have no expectation that you'd be honest with me.

I guess I think you coming back to the thread feels like an act of desperation?

It would be far easier for you to just ghost/troll but for you to actually somewhat put up an effort implies that the scum side is losing and needs to throw a hail mary of sorts?

[Anastasia]

Like there's no way for you to convince Briar or me to vote for you.

I for one would never vote for you.

Briar would never vote for you because she knows I'll vote for her and she trusts herself over you no matter what.

So there's no situation where scum you thinks you can actually dislodge the block on the keep.

Hence it makes sense that you're coming back to re-introduce "doubt" as its too oppressive for scum outside the keep to operate with me/briar as psuedo-ICs and removing room for them to operate in.

For that to make sense as a motive, they must be constrained already.

[Anastasia]

If I trust my partners, I let them figure it out.

If I don't trust my partners, I wouldn't swap into the keep to begin with.

I'm guessing you trusted your partners at the beginning to carry the other 2 mini-games but something happened last night to move this significantly into doubt so now you are throwing a hail mary in hopes of reviving their chances.

I'd guess dunn/lukewarm psuedo-reconciliating was the impetus as that was the only significant event of last night.

[Anastasia]

I was about to say 'is it possible that we're all town at the wall' but then I realized no lol

unwnd you are precious and I do not deserve you <3

[Anastasia]

I am really not sure what I'm doing to get compliments and I've felt that way this whole game

I appreciate your effort despite the overwhelming odds against you - it is heroic and dashing <3

[Anastasia]

I appreciate your effort despite the overwhelming odds against you - it is heroic and dashing <3

Your condescension, however, is neither of those things.

I don't think I've been condescending

[Anastasia]

I don't think I've been condescending

Maybe I misunderstood that post but it read as though you were extremely confident unwnd was scum but wanted to commend them for trying, which feels patronizing. I would have been upset if a post like that had been directed at me.

I have tremendous respect for unwnd as a player, I think the world of him, and patronizing/condescending to him would not be something I would consider doing.

[Anastasia]

Ana what was the purpose of 1399? Are you going to reconsider unwnd (or ask dunn/luke to reconsider him) if he puts in a lot of effort?

the purpose is to create readable dispersion,

demotivate him if he's scum from efforting and motivate him if he's town into efforting.

[Anastasia]

nope because if he is the elimination at the wall so it wouldn't matter how good his case for the gate is.

[Anastasia]

nope because if he is the elimination at the wall so it wouldn't matter how good his case for the gate is.

Wait but what's the point in reading unwnd if he's going to be the elim anyway

his case for the gate could win or lose the game for the townside if he is town

[Anastasia]

Please stop talking about the stupid fucking mechanics

Both of your arguments are just hearsay and me needing to believe what you would do in accordance to how the night played out

Not what you've organically gained from it

How is unwnd not obvtown to everyone

why can't this just be scum!unwnd who is annoyed that Dunn/Lukewarm are townreading each other off some random bad mech interpretation?

[Anastasia]

I can remember many times of me being wrong, I wouldn't bet the farm on me :<

[Anastasia]

The more I talk about this though the more I understand why other people wouldn't see what I'm seeing, I hope you take it into account once I'm conftown though.

If you're town people should definitely throw everything I said out the window because I am waaaaaaay offf base

[Anastasia]

I mean the idea that I would jump into the keep as scum when I could just go to Wall/Gate and fight 1v1 for a mis elim is silly.

Also since Keep will resolve first you can see my alignment before you consider my solve so it would be completely pointless for me to construct a fake solve in the Keep.

[Anastasia]

I actually like knowing that Briar is town much better

[Anastasia]

why would infinity need to prove anything to you?

infinity says she will vote for you

I said I will vote for you.

Neither of us really needs to prove anything to you.

The flip will speak for itself.

[Anastasia]

You believe what you want Ydra but the fact is that the whole game hates me should tell you either that I'm just a very popular guy or scum is just riding the trend

I think you are very p o p u l ar

I just believe you're scum and I'm quite loud and I should stop doing that.

[Anastasia]

I think unwnd cares too much about self-preservation at the wall and not enough about getting the 50:50 at the gate right and that feels like a scum mindset to me.

[Anastasia]

I am also horribly confbiased in my unwnd-infinity-ss solve :< sorry

[Anastasia]

But I feel really iced out and it's fucking with my ability to solve

I think it shouldn't because if Keep resolves town and Wall flips for scum, your solve at Gate will still be taken very seriously. If you get Gate right town still wins and you will deserve a large amount of the credit.

It's not necessary for you to preserve your life at Wall if you're town for town to win.

[Anastasia]

I started a 10 page derail about anime just to fill the thread with fluff.

you are adoorbs and I appreciate you <3

[Anastasia]

Absin I owe you less belly-aching so I'll get around to that

I would just like to hope that you (and everyone else) consider what I have to say

I feel sometimes I break my own style down like this because I worry nobody wants to read my walls lol

Gate will be the last to flip so your alignment will be known by then.

Your walls absolutely will get read and strongly considered if you're town.

[Anastasia]

Deadline: 8 days, 23 hours, 26 minutes.

I think we should have a decent time table setup so that we can have time in case one of our preliminary assumptions is wrong.


I'm proposing this:

6 Days left in Deadline: We resolve Keep.

3 Days left in Deadline: We resolve Wall.

We can maybe go over by a bit but I don't think it would be wise to stray too far over?


let me know if there's something I'm missing or this is wrong?

[Anastasia]

Also, hm.

I think we should try? To resolve the Gate first because there’s higher odds of hitting scum in there than the Wall, right? If absinthe feels confident enough at least I think we could just win like that.

I'm kind of thinking Keep -> Wall - > Gate.

If Keep fails then Wall/Gate need to get completely redone in terms of the assumptions that we've made.

I really don't think Keep will fail.

I think holding gate last allows the IC to have the most influence over the entirety of the game.

[Anastasia]

I have a lot of faith in unwnd!town to solve the gate correctly, so that's why I want the wall to turn over prior to the Gate.

because if I'm wrong about unwnd, then having his solve be legitimized prior to Gate decision would be massively +EV I Feel for the town.

[Anastasia]

I think a large part of why I scumread Unwnd is that I feel a lot of his play this game has been driven by a desire to preserve his own life rather than to adequately solve for the game.

And that's just a product of game design. If Keep is definitely won for the town, then Scum!Unwnd can't die at the wall, if he does then his team will lose the game and it will not matter how convincing the case he makes for the gate is, that case will not matter because the game is over.

For town!unwnd however, if he is the victim of a mis-elim at the wall, it still matters a great deal that he get the correct solution for the gate, because that solution can play a large part in determining whether the town wins or loses the game.

So when I see him fustrated with the game state and not really solving for the gate, I feel he's more likely scum than town as town!him has motivations that scum!him simply can't replicate if he feels his slot is doomed.

[Anastasia]

Whereas I feel like I've taken a lot of angles and approaches to this game and if there's one thing I'm not good at as scum it's being dynamic... like I changed my tune about what was optimal multiple times, I tried to take into account people's changing reads, we juggled a lot of different mechanical plans, and I also stood my ground really hard against Ana when I could have just like... not said anything and let it drop. If the team really is me/Infinity/unwnd then there's no way that I would expect that arguing back against it as hard as I could would be the right way to make it look like that wasn't the team; and if it isn't that, then why am I drawing attention to myself at all?

uh if you didn't argue against it and I force that team through don't you just lose if that's the team?

like someone has to argue against it no?

[Anastasia]

Man, imagine how nice it would have been if we'd put Ana/Briar/absinthe at the Wall instead of at the Keep.

you mean imagine a world where unwnd didn't lock wall immediately?

[Anastasia]

gg unwnd <3

you were just as dashing as I had hoped

[Anastasia]

I am so sorry for messing things up Luke.

Mea Maxima Culpa.

[Anastasia]

I think everyone played very well and this was a thrilling game to be a part of.

[Anastasia]

You fought your way out of the pressure I was applying to you brilliantly.

[Anastasia]

You fought your way out of the pressure I was applying to you brilliantly.

I think I deflected some of the pressure.

If I'd figured out who you are (assuming I'm right!) more quickly I don't think I would have gotten nearly so offended.

I think you missed the point I was making originally that it was suspicious of unwnd to accept your explanation and that I was not actually suspicious of you <3

and you are of course correct.

[Anastasia]

I think you played very well Lukewarm, I had you very high in my town section.

You can nominate the scum team for a scummy here in this thread:

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=86107


Congrats again @Ydra/CatB/Unwnd

it was a beautiful victory <3 - I think I'm still stuck somewhere deep in Ydra's pocket.

Which is something because I've literally seen her do this and I still fell into it head first - mea maxima culpa.

Thanks to Marashu for modding, everything was amazing and the setup is a delight to play.

Sorry to my fellow townies for being so stubbornly wrong ayayaya.