Open 812 Guardians of the Fortress - Game Over

[Something_Smart]

I think a town-Catboi at the Keep would have made that mini harder for scum to win.

Maybe? I mean people would probably have still taken it as a scumclaim swap, no? So it just comes down to whether catboi guesses right between the two UTR's.

[absinthe]

Spoiler:

Okay, everyone cool with it? Cool.

VOTE: Keep

Let's get this.

WHY

Okay, everyone cool with it? Cool.

VOTE: Keep

Let's get this.

WHY

I'm town!

Do you assume you're going to be townread enough to be voted there? I don't understand the mindset.

Absinthe, do you think that scum! catboi would call out Briar for locking herself into the Keep? Like if Briar's goal was lock into town, then get town read hard enough to win it anyways, would her partner make it seem suspicious that she locked in early?

Every one of the 3 scum in this game has been playing from the get go with the knowledge that every scum flip comes with extreme pool-narrowing since 2 town also flip simultaneously, giving remaining town a huge opportunity to do a reset. I think judicious distancing had to be part of the plan. Briar was almost certain to be the first scum flip.

But, that whole interaction from both sides doesn't feel scum-scum to me.

[Something_Smart]

But, that whole interaction from both sides doesn't feel scum-scum to me.

is it going to be productive for me to engage you on this? because that exchange feels like bog-standard distancing to me, especially 169.

[absinthe]

I think a town-Catboi at the Keep would have made that mini harder for scum to win.

Maybe? I mean people would probably have still taken it as a scumclaim swap, no? So it just comes down to whether catboi guesses right between the two UTR's.

Yeah, I'm not saying he would have been townie enough to convince Ana (or me) to vote him, but he might have correctly voted not-Briar.

Anyway, I feel like you were mostly thinking about the Gate there, not the whole game.

[Something_Smart]

he might have correctly voted not-Briar.

I mean the same is also true for Infinity. I don't recall her having a strong leaning one way or the other?

[absinthe]

But, that whole interaction from both sides doesn't feel scum-scum to me.

is it going to be productive for me to engage you on this? because that exchange feels like bog-standard distancing to me, especially 169.

There was a whole drawn out follow-on exchange which would veer into masterclass level distancing IMO.

I'm not dismissing the possibility that I attended a masterclass distancing seminar on Day 1.

Any thoughts about the Dunn post I pointed up as possible TMI?

[Something_Smart]

Any thoughts about the Dunn post I pointed up as possible TMI?

Doesn't seem like a TMI to me. From the perspective of Keep being initially 0 scum, the choice was between all three of you.

[Something_Smart]

There was a whole drawn out follow-on exchange which would veer into masterclass level distancing IMO.

Is this the interaction that ends at 205 or does it go longer?

I don't see the masterclass, sorry. All I see is catboi awkwardly breaking it off after not knowing where to go with it.

[absinthe]

he might have correctly voted not-Briar.

I mean the same is also true for Infinity. I don't recall her having a strong leaning one way or the other?

catboi wasn't in Ana's day 1/day 2 solve. I think the starting place on seeing that swap might have been less certain in Ana's mind and I don't think Briar wanted Ana's mind jostled much.

Go ahead and argue the swap is equivalent, I guess.

Maybe my logic is bad, but I think your thought train on that point looked more likely to come from town.

[Something_Smart]

catboi wasn't in Ana's day 1/day 2 solve. I think the starting place on seeing that swap might have been less certain in Ana's mind and I don't think Briar wanted Ana's mind jostled much.

I suppose, although Ana's not really the one whom Briar needs to pander to.

[absinthe]

There was a whole drawn out follow-on exchange which would veer into masterclass level distancing IMO.

Is this the interaction that ends at 205 or does it go longer?

I don't see the masterclass, sorry. All I see is catboi awkwardly breaking it off after not knowing where to go with it.

1791

[Something_Smart]

here you go absinthe

it is a mess as promised

Spoiler: catboi case

I've half a mind to just jump to the gate right now - I actually didn't mind lukewarm's suggestion earlier that I be the third at the keep, because I don't see scum motivation in Anastasia's play and although briar's play didn't make a ton of sense to me I feel as though she's threadspewed from the townreads on her, but, selfishly, I want to stay in the game longer and I think the keep should be resolved first. I feel like I'm able to play better after flips are on the table.

So this logic is... bad. It's just flat-out not playing to wincon if true. "It might make sense to put me at the Keep... but I think Gate is more fun, so I'm just gonna pick it." And they did pick it. Because they want to be in the game longer.

I can't help but notice that at this point, Briar (flipped scum) and unwnd (top pick for third scum) had already locked into the other two locations. Surely that's just a wacky coincidence though, and not catboi inventing a flimsy excuse to guarantee a very early 1-1-1 split?

(And even if I'm wrong about unwnd, we will notice that Dunn jumped to the wall as soon as it was looking like he might not make it there. So Dunn being scum over unwnd doesn't sink this theory.)

Well, let's see if there's any way we can figure out whether this is catboi's real opinion or just an excuse. How about 1101, where they indicate the resolution order should be Keep > Gate > Wall. Why not Keep > Wall > Gate? What happened to selfishly wanting to stay alive as long as possible?

You know, this might be just me, but I'm not seeing any other references to that.

Oh hey, they talked about their motivation for going to the Gate:

My feeling was that, assuming the two townreads already at the keep were correct, me going there would ensure it was all town and force the mafia to swap with one of us. Being that I was not as townread as the other two, I'd likely be left there and I could just vote my townread and win a point. However it seemed almost superfluous to me - they were likely to get voted without my help regardless, and I'd end up removing myself from the game before being able to do much. Like I said in the post you quoted, I feel like I'm able to contribute a lot more effectively once there's been some flips and I can analyze based on interactions. Granted this way I have to convince people I'm town myself, which is not always easy for me, but I still feel as though I'm more valuable this way.

And this just seems like a lie. Like, this isn't the justification they gave when they locked it in! They said that the Keep would be fine, but they wanted to stay alive longer.

And there's also 1710, which I touched on before. It's clearly wrong (omg catboi made 2 posts supporting ana and only 1 supporting briar, obviously they would automatically trust ana over briar and surely the scum were able to deduce that !) and while the motivation for it doesn't

have

to be malicious, it seems to just be the judicious townie thing to do to actually, like check this before posting it? especially since catboi is clearly trying to project this deliberative vibe (even though as I think I've previously said, it really isn't even pro-town to be that way).

And 1719 is like... arguably a perspective slip. They're trying to frame my flailing and freaking out as a scum response to an unusual thing happening, even though if I were scum I would have known the Briar scumflip was coming a mile away and indeed my reaction was only so disorganized because I am town and WAS caught off balance. (Absinthe was I believe the one to first point this out. It was a good point.)

[Dunnstral]

I was only going off what Dunn was saying which was practically you cleared another as town in your mech interactions. That made me lash out a little bit

I apologize

I need to catch up on my sleep as it does make me a bit irrational

Wow, that's the opposite of what I said, in fact

[Something_Smart]

1791

ok... what's non-partnery about that? why is it harder for Briar to write that post to a partner than to a townie?

like it's impressive analysis to fake, no doubt, but I don't see why her knowing the read is right makes it any harder to write that than knowing it's wrong. (I would think it would actually make it easier?)

[unwnd]

Dunn I find it very unlikely you're town here regardless of the fact

[absinthe]

1791

ok... what's non-partnery about that? why is it harder for Briar to write that post to a partner than to a townie?

like it's impressive analysis to fake, no doubt, but I don't see why her knowing the read is right makes it any harder to write that than knowing it's wrong. (I would think it would actually make it easier?)

She wrote it knowing her flip was likely to be the first scum flip. Either way it's fake analysis from her, it just a question to me of how deeply I want to venture into the house of mirrors going through her iso.

[Something_Smart]

I mean if it's WIFOM either way then what makes it masterclass distancing but just regular scum play if it's S -> T

I really don't understand that. Like yes it was good scum play by her and yes it was probably excessive, but why was it more excessive/more risky if catboi is scum? If anything it seems like it makes MORE sense S/S because they're trying to make interactions that look genuine... but ultimately yes it is WIFOM.

[Dunnstral]

This is interesting because it's positing a decision between me vs Anastasia as the IC as opposed to Briar. TMI?

My thinking was that Anastasia was likely to vote for something_smart while I wasn't sure what the intention of swapping you in would be

[unwnd]

I have a lot of frustratingly null players I want to figure out however. I think the pairing of (You/Absin/Briar) definitely has one scum but that being said one of you has partners. I'd like to see what catboi has to say to my retort and go from there

I hate when I do this

[absinthe]

I mean if it's WIFOM either way then what makes it masterclass distancing but just regular scum play if it's S -> T

I really don't understand that. Like yes it was good scum play by her and yes it was probably excessive, but why was it more excessive/more risky if catboi is scum? If anything it seems like it makes MORE sense S/S because they're trying to make interactions that look genuine... but ultimately yes it is WIFOM.

Assuming you're town, then you're looking at that interaction knowing that catboi is scum.

I can't do that. I have to look at it from both perspectives. It didn't ring false when I read it originally -- it read like real thoughts she was having about his play. Looking at it from the now-perspective, I know it's false from her side, but it still doesn't spew catboi as either alignment to me.

Thanks for your case. I've read it and I'm cogitating.

[unwnd]

Absin I am again fine with going first, but you seemed to be caught up in something else

[Dunnstral]

I still think that catboi latching on to me talking about ana-briar on day 1 is a scum tell

And then one of either Luke or Unwnd, who were also latched onto that, is the other

[unwnd]

I still think that catboi latching on to me talking about ana-briar on day 1 is a scum tell

And then one of either Luke or Unwnd, who were also latched onto that, is the other

I don't even remember what you're talking about

Why is it a scum tell?

[Something_Smart]

Looking at it from the now-perspective, I know it's false from her side, but it still doesn't spew catboi as either alignment to me.

Yeah I mean that's perfectly fine. I'm not expecting you to see everything from my POV, but you said before that it was masterclass level distancing which I thought implied that you thought it was not likely to be distancing.

[Dunnstral]

catboi is close to null but leans scum because he was focused way more on talking about how I was shading ana/briar than what I was actually talking about.