DEFCON Mafia 5.0: GAME OVER - NEW AMERICA FORMED

[Equinox]

If you know me, you should know in every game I ever play, I always either claim outright, or drop crumbs.

Thanks for proving my point. Sorry for not knowing you so intimately!

[joqiza]

Warning:

I wrote a wallpost, tl;dr is I'm probs nuking in Titus/Vax, I saw Toog claimed Battleship while I was writing this so idk I'll re-think his inclusion in my PoE, I had Sam in PoE too but don't rly think I'm nuking her today.

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I think the following people are Just Town:

Bell

- Felt like he was sort of thread-spewed to not be group-scum pretty early on. Think his VFP thunderdome is unnecessary if they're aligned, he had the option to follow LLD onto Robert.

gorilla

- IMO the most active pro-town player in the game. In addition to general content, he has no reason to jump in front of me to take the Robert shot when I'd said I was willing to do it myself.

Innocent Villager / Mognet / Prism

- I've gone into this, but in a nutshell I think scum is unlikely to draft covert ops and then try everything in their power to get nuked. IV is also pretty towny imo.

Equinox / Entity

- I've gone over this in 3212 and 3463 / 3465

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I think the following people are not Russian and probably just town:

Cephrir

- Has small little expressions like 3322 that just ring towny to me because they're the same sentiments that I had. 2714 and 1969 are other examples. More concretely, I think his annoyance at people claiming is town-motivated, his scorn towards the Russian team reads genuine, and this interaction with VFP (1161) reads non-partnered to me.

Save the Dragons

- Nuked a Russian. Tbh, I do feel like Koto is the kind of player you hardbus, since he was apparently so afk that he didn't even bother to launch a retaliatory nuke. But I also found some points in 3190 convincing.

DeasVail

- I read him and I...

honestly don't think he's scummy at all?

(After reviewing a second time, I think his Nexus vote d2 and his initial TR on Koto/Merlot are points against him, but I still lean town anyway, for the following reasons.) Like I think he could be scum if he made no effort to control the gamestate to protect his partners, but also didn't push or distance them to gain towncredit, and instead basically opted to just chill in the back and serve up good vibes. Posts like 648 do the same thing for me that a lot of Ceph's posts did, where they just capture sentiments I felt around the time I was feeling them. I really like the tone of 3256. I also think he reads lightly non-partnered with mastina and Merlot. He mentions that he vibed with a lot of mastina's early readslists, but wasn't sure how to feel about it, and said in 650 that the pressure on her felt appropriate. I think the way Merlot treated him felt a bit non-partnered. Lastly I feel like his draft is slightly +town, and I liked how he mentioned that he TR Koto after StD launched the nuke that way, but also didn't shoot it down and instead was considering saving T3. Why TR Koto but not shoot down the nuke if you're partnered with him? Either distance him or save him, don't try to associate yourself with him right before the flip.

The Church of Skitter (Alisae/Menalque)

- Still weirdly conflicted on this slot tbh. Their EoD2 during twilight was towny, like super super towny? I don't see them partnered with VFP after that. At the same time I look at posts like 3332 and 2533 and I think to myself that they just sound so wolfy tonally. Idk how to explain it, and maybe I just auto-scumread really long run-on sentences, which Alisae uses a lot. Anyway, they're the top-poster and probably just town, but yeah.

marry

- just iso me for reasons. wish she would actually play the game tho.

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The following are slots that I'd (personally) like to see resolved:

Vaxkiller

- There are a couple posts I dislike from Vax. 2002 reads a bit forced tonally to me. His eventual case on Mognet in 2240, 2245, 2246 also struck me as a gish gallop. There's a lot of quotes from Mognet and Prism, but the overall logic doesn't seem quite there.

For instance,

So that was early on. I would not say prism was sticking thie neck out, because a mastina wagon did not have any momentum at that point.

But I think this isn't true, because people were literally trying to vote mastina before votes were even enabled--there was pressure on her from the first post she made.

Anyway I felt his case was illogical at the time but didn't really think it was scum-motivated. More recently, I haven't liked his treatment of IV. It felt like he basically refused to re-eval with IV's new content, encouraged Nexus's nuke of the slot, but also

didn't seem interested in nuking the slot himself once Nexus recalled?

(I thought he might just have a troop at first, but I think he's said now he has a silo.) To be clear, I absolutely don't want him to nuke IV, but it's kind of surprising that despite hard-tunneling the slot he's not willing to go the last step himself--and yes, it makes me wonder if his read isn't genuine.

Aside from that he just doesn't have as much going as the other slots IMO. I kinda like 3273 for some reason, and I'm not sure the way mastina treated him reads like scum distancing. The second point in particular is something I'd want to go back and look at before firing a nuke.

Toogeloo

- Update: he claimed Battleship while I was writing this, which I think might be slightly +town given the bad guys targeted Pooky n1 and LLD/Et Al n2, possibly indicating they were trying to play around a save. I've found his tone kinda towny and I liked his vote/post on mastina back on the day she was limmed, but since then he's kind of faded to the background for me, and recently I don't like his scum-pool. The reasoning is fine as a starting point but kind of superficial, I obviously don't like my own inclusion, and I don't agree with the inclusion of DV/Ceph.

Titus

- Sigh, okay. I've gone into this one a bit too, and they may be my most likely target atm.

Pros: I liked their vote on mastina, they basically just said "I'll sheep LLD here" which seems valid and honest? I also think I find their tone in their response to me earlier slightly town-indicative, like they seemed to internalize and take personally my criticisms of their arguments, which might be more likely to come from town from whom the process was genuine than from scum for whom it would just be writing on the wall.

Cons: I still stand by some of my criticisms. When Titus and I were defending VFP yesterday, I took issue w/ some of Titus's logic, and it was those posts as well as the general atmosphere that made me start feeling like maybe I was on the wrong side of things. Tho I do think it would be quite bold of mafia to defend their partner as brazenly as Titus did, she basically stated that "I won't risk a VFP flip." Today, I took some issue w/ her StD read--after discussing w/ her, I actually find her argument convincing, but I worry now that it comes from a place of TMI, actually. I believe that at the time she made that read, StD had fired his nuke at Koto, but it hadn't landed yet. I'm wondering now if she went out of her way to defend with with the knowledge that he'd soon be responsible for limming a scum.

The nuke on Nexus is... I think it's OK, tbh, I think there are universes where Nexus/VFP was SvS, I don't mind seeing the slot resolved, but it wouldn't be my first choice in the pool, and I don't really understand the specific argument she's making of "no scum on his wagon." I don't necessarily disagree , but I don't really understand why that implies Nexus has to be scum, since scum could still be on a vanity wagon, not vote, or bus. I want to know the exact logical steps here, as I suspect I'll disagree w/ the logic somewhere.

samantha97

- I liked that one spicy post she made where she defended all the LHF's and I've liked her tone at points. Her vote history is also pretty decent I believe. Other than that, I can't remember any of her contributions except for tunneling DV all game, who I feel like is probs town now. Wouldn't be my first target in the pool idt, but can't see anything in specific that makes her not-Russian. Altho as I'm writing this I'm remembering that mastina put Sam really high in that initial reads list, which I wonder might be +town for her. Idk I might move her up--will revisit this, probably not nuking her myself.

[joqiza]

@std, joqiza, gorilla, bell please lmk if you object to this line, i don't really care what anyone else thinks

If by "this line" you mean nuking samantha, I don't really object, altho my preference atm in my own pool is towards Titus/Vax.

Mechanically speaking, though, might be optimal to wait at least until the nuke heading to Nexus is within <24 hours? I believe that gives you a chance to recall in case the Nexus flip changes a read. Idk if that's the case for sam but probably should be for Titus.

[Cephrir]

i will probably wait for nexus to flip, i guess

[Save The Dragons]

@std, joqiza, gorilla, bell please lmk if you object to this line, i don't really care what anyone else thinks

i think you should nuke who you want to nuke

sam sticks out for a couple of reasons:

-voting against total war in some misguided attempt to get less scum kills. it's pretty ballsy as scum especially when it's proven wrong so easily. I don't think it comes from scum but could come from terrorist wanting to make sure they get kills in

-targeting DV since the beginning of the game. I'm not sure what to make of this as I'm unsure where I stand with DV. but i'm not sure i like the case, it comes across as "i decided DV was scum, now here are some reasons" but it might not be like that.

-she probably would have nuked DV by now if she could

-she was on nexus but switched to vfp somewhat early

ultimately i don't think she's scum but could be terrorist. maybe we should focus on trying to wipe out scum today if we can.

[Toogeloo]

and this interaction with VFP (1161) reads non-partnered to me.

These aren't exactly difficult to pull off.

Did it here in my last game as mafia with my partner, Dannflor.

[samantha97]

cephrir let me tell you a secret

there is no universe in which I will ever help a mafia wagon grow as mafia, unless that person is just doomed

it's so illogical to me that it's a borderline trust tell lol

also

when it's proven wrong so easily

skip 3+2 = 1 lynch 2 non-town nks on first voting cycle
defcon 3 = 1 lynch 1 non-town nk (sk) on first voting cycle

it's +1 town as a baseline since mafia get 1 less nightkill (only time it wouldn't be is if mafia were to hit terrorist)

[Nexus]

Titus could do the right thing and withdraw her nuke.

[Toogeloo]

That doesn't even take into consideration all the blind nukes fired, and scum being able to fire their nukes more openly as a result. Total War gives even less info to work with.

[Titus]

The nuke on Nexus is... I think it's OK, tbh, I think there are universes where Nexus/VFP was SvS, I don't mind seeing the slot resolved, but it wouldn't be my first choice in the pool, and I don't really understand the specific argument she's making of "no scum on his wagon." I don't necessarily disagree , but I don't really understand why that implies Nexus has to be scum, since scum could still be on a vanity wagon, not vote, or bus. I want to know the exact logical steps here, as I suspect I'll disagree w/ the logic somewhere.

Sure. When I look at my VCA, I'm asking myself "What are scum doing?" and "What do they want here?"

What they want, on the surface, is a living VFP as the having more members is better. This is doubly true after losing mastina day 1.

This suggests there should be scum on the Nexus wagon.

Then I get to the other question. "What are scum doing?"

I look at the wagons and see that I don't feel anyone who is scum is voting Nexus. That means my reads, and the largely consensus reads, are off or scum didn't want to vote Nexus.

If scum didn't want to vote a town Nexus over VFP prior to the allegations that Bell copped VFP, I would be surprised.

Nuking Nexus proves either S v S wagons or that the reads in the game need a major shakeup and I'm ok with that being my contribution.

[Save The Dragons]

is there an ELI5 version of why i'm wrong about total war

[Titus]

Titus could do the right thing and withdraw her nuke.

You could give reads and give me a reason to recall my nuke.

[Save The Dragons]

That doesn't even take into consideration all the blind nukes fired, and scum being able to fire their nukes more openly as a result. Total War gives even less info to work with.

irrelevant all i care about is whether this statement is true or not and I thought it was disproven, if that's not the case let me know

unless I'm missing something total war just gives mafia more nightkills?

[samantha97]

I wasn't 100% sure at the time (and thought people could just outvote me if I was wrong) but yeah it's as I said

defcon 1 (total war) enables both nks instead of 1 during the first phase of voting

[Nexus]

Titus could do the right thing and withdraw her nuke.

You could give reads and give me a reason to recall my nuke.

You could take the stick out of your ass and do something useful rather than wishy washy nonsense about VCA, but I guess neither of us are getting what we want.

[Titus]

Titus could do the right thing and withdraw her nuke.

You could give reads and give me a reason to recall my nuke.

You could take the stick out of your ass and do something useful rather than wishy washy nonsense about VCA, but I guess neither of us are getting what we want.

I've been doing that for all three days now. Just because I based my decision on VCA and what would help me scumhunt doesn't mean I have ignored the rest. Second, my VFP read was wrong so my play based reads don't have much confidence.

You want me not to nuke you. Meet me half way.

Right now, you might as well post you do not wish to die a painful death because you are giving nothing to work with.

[Titus]

Can we ELI5 why we're talking setup mechanics?

[Nexus]

I don't trust you so whatever.

[Nexus]

If it's annoying you so much I'm definitely going to eke this out.

[Vaxkiller]

I think Vax might be scum.

You don't mention me much except this. What's your current thoughts?

[joqiza]

Sure. When I look at my VCA, I'm asking myself "What are scum doing?" and "What do they want here?"

What they want, on the surface, is a living VFP as the having more members is better. This is doubly true after losing mastina day 1.

This suggests there should be scum on the Nexus wagon.

Then I get to the other question. "What are scum doing?"

I look at the wagons and see that I don't feel anyone who is scum is voting Nexus. That means my reads, and the largely consensus reads, are off or scum didn't want to vote Nexus.

If scum didn't want to vote a town Nexus over VFP prior to the allegations that Bell copped VFP, I would be surprised.

Nuking Nexus proves either S v S wagons or that the reads in the game need a major shakeup and I'm ok with that being my contribution.

Okay, I want to try to follow you, so let's break this down.

Here's the Nexus wagon at what I believe is its largest point.

Votecount 2.6

Nexus (6) - Titus, joqiza, T3, DeasVail, Cephrir, Save The Dragons
VFP (5) - Bell, gorilla, Nexus, samantha97, Toogeloo
Robert M Hunter (4) - Lady Lambdadelta, marry, Robert M Hunter, The Entity
innocentvillager (1) - Vaxkiller
marry (1) - VFP
Titus (1) - innocentvillager
Koto (1) - The Church of Skitter

Not Voting [3] - Koto, DeathNote, Et Al

(expired on 2021-05-22 17:52:00) remain until day end

With 22 players alive, it takes 12 to reach a majority.

So, of the people on the Nexus wagon outside of us, I agree w/ the reads on them. So, I guess my main question is: do you read Vaxkiller as town? Since he was off the VFP wagon too, but just not as actively present on Nexus.

I think if Vax is town, then my brain actually goes to scum bussing before I consider VFP/Nexus SvS. Do you think it's impossible for scum to bus? I think it's unlikely, but there's a chance. Was VFP ever going to endgame? Probably not--if town!Nexus flips, VFP probably gets nuked and then limmed today. Although, as I type this, scum may have felt it worth the risk. VFP having to be limmed gives them an extra vote, and they might win the D1 nuke battle and have enough votes to control the thread. Idk. I'll have to think about it. I think one other thing to consider is that they felt they didn't have enough thread control w/ Koto basically AWOL yesterday to push through a town lim.

Part of the issue rn, I think, is that for this "wagonomics" issue I can just pencil in a you/Vaxkiller scumteam and be on my way. Altho writing this out has made me nervous about my Ceph/DV and even StD townreads. Like at first I was thinking, "VFP wasn't a critical game piece," but now I'm wondering if scum might've elected to go all in to save him, in hopes of having enough votes to win after all the nukes get fired.

[Titus]

The problem with the scum bussing theory is two fold

1) Why would scum bus after just losing mastina?
2) Who's the busser? It's not Bell or gorilla. If we buy Toog's claim it's not Toog. So that leaves Nexus or Samantha. Nexus bussing in an S v S scenario makes some sense. Sam bussing might be true, but we get into the question of why?

Vaxkiller is a spot I waffle on by play, but I think he's just too out there to be scum.

[Titus]

I'm thinking it's Nexus and Equinox personally.

[Titus]

I could go Sam but I waffle there. Like by play I get it but the data doesn't support it

[Vaxkiller]

Just because VFP bussed early, you think everyone bussed early? What if VFP's plan was to just vote and hope it goes away, but if anything happens later, he gets cred for being early on? He had no reason for voting.

Do we know of anyone else with no reason for voting? I have my reasons, clearly laid out. In fact my reason was like the only fucking legitimate reason.... ugh, im getting off topic.