In post 3848, gorilla wrote:okay, he opened the game with mechanical spec of trying to exploit the draft. But is that impossible to fake? no, and even if we could have coordinated ending defcon 5 it's not like scum can't just plan in the PT to be around then. I also get the feeling he might just be ore comfortable talking about mechanical things?
and sure, he outed that he was the sub, but that's an inevitability anyway due to the way defcon goes and not claiming it would be seen as a scumclaim really.
But when I look at that votecount I quoted earlier, I noticed he was on the wrong side of the VFP/Nexus wagons when they were relatively equal in strength.
While I think VCA is generally a fallacy, I feel like there probably was scum tryin to take advantage of the Nexus CW, as at that point in time there was not a particularly strong argument being made against VFP. And T3 and Cephrir are confirmed non-russian.
And so I looked back at his ISO, and in general, I felt like the signal to noise ratio was fairly low. This is a generalized thing but I feel like he wasn't pushing much in the way of scumreads. Yes, he had that big wallpost, but I feel like scum are more likely to contribute in that sort of big pre-constructed block form where they can get everything organized and not do it as frequeently, it's harder to imitate the town solving process of sporadic bursts. And in general the scumreads he has had have been not good. I don't like how he pushed nexus, in hindsight I don't like his church read as I think it may hav been trying to take advantage of my suspicion there, I don't like him trying to chip away at townreads on save the dragons for nuking koto.
and I looked back on his ISO, and here's what he had to say about flipped scum:
In post 544, joqiza wrote:also not to deflate the very spicy mastina wagon, but i'm pretty sure we don't lim anyone in defcon 4
In post 571, joqiza wrote:so @mastina to be clear the unnerving thing about your read was the fact that you said you townread me AND marry. She really has not been present enough to have much of an idea abt her alignment besides rand. it's not that I'm saying you're WRONG it's that I feel like as the resident marrytologist I haven't even given my professional opinion yet... it's all a bit premature.
Maybe I'm being unfair tho and what you're saying is that you're putting us both town cuz if one of us is scum at some point in the future you'll know about it cuz one of us will snipe the other... and that's true... probably.
Worth noting that marry is kinda busy rn I think so may not be the uh final occupant of her slot
In post 1392, joqiza wrote:im a bit distracted atm so wanted to review the game on my own time / at my own pace, but i don't think mastina is a terrible lim here. the way she townlocked us was a bit weird marry
In post 1394, joqiza wrote:okay well if i do end up voting mastina i want it known that i have no ill will against her! actually i loved a lot of your posts @mastina, your one about me and marry bouncing sound waves off each other was super cute and made me smile. i didn't get the sense you're a bad player or anything either, actually i vibed with a lot of your reads and content but my concern is actually that you know too much. some of the conclusions feel reached before i can understand how the underlying evidence led you there
In post 1451, joqiza wrote:i think i'm willing to hammer mastina, but i want to give her a chance to speak first
He passively accepts the mastina wagon, but is sort of awkwardly hesitant to vote for her and tries to stall the hammer. That was the post that started off the whole mognet debacle, but in hindsight, it feels like he mght have been reluctantly holding off on a bus?
Meanwhile, on day 2, he tries to clear VFP off mastina interactions. Being wrong isn't a crime but I really didn't like the way he talked about it on a look back. He asserts the defense confidently at first but gets quieter as the wagon grows (until church implies VFP's been guiltied and he votes there), it's not a full-blown defense like Titus.
In post 2083, joqiza wrote:FWIW i didn't get the sense that the dcl/VFP slot was aligned with mastina I just think he's off base here
I don't really have a big lead here but I want to see what shakes out. nexus has seemed like he's been hunting more for 3P today, and his vote yesterday seems compatible with a bus to me.
not 100% sure what the VC is but for transparency i'd consider switching to t3 too.
i don't read vfp as aligned with mastina rn. she seemed interested in possibly limming his slot and he was also striking a course both yesterday and today that's very visible and gains him no favor if he's scum. i feel like his pushes/shades are just gonna end with him getting nuked
In post 2179, joqiza wrote:prismognet, bell, entity, marry, cephrir, lld, gorilla, and robert m are in my town* bin
* town here being simply not russian. i've no idea how to look for terrorist tbh. in terms of info and alignment they just seem like spicy town rn.
deathnote, deasvail, vfp, toog, titus, sam, and vax i also kinda think are town but im not as confident as the aforementioned
i want to clarify this because this thing often happens in games where i end up defending my townleans more than my actual townreads. it's just a function of consensus and who ends up pressured.
In post 2190, joqiza wrote:Bell fwiw I acknowledge 2187 and I do think vfp's 2060 was a bad post. i'll noodle on it. the underlying activity read doesn't speak much to me.
In post 2576, joqiza wrote:Bell idg where the confidence comes from and I'm still stuck on VFP. I took another look and I really.. don't think the slot is aligned with mastina.
- his call-out of cephrir for being scum if mastina is town felt uninformed of mastina's alignment
- I think he believes his marry read
If he flips scum I think he flips terrorist. Which would be hype but that feels like a lottery ticket read to me. This is the kind of situation where I'd usually offer a quid pro quo to resolve the deadlock, i.e. you lead my vote today, if it flips town I lead yours tomorrow, but I don't think that'll work in this setup cuz tomorrow is gonna be about the nuking.
That said on rr I also felt like this was a better representation of where my head's at rn:
VOTE: Church of Skitter
There's a lot of people suspicious of this slot but no one's quite taken the step to vote them, so let me be the first.
If the dueling wagons remain between Nexus/VFP my vote is still spiritually on Nexus ig but tbh after the rr I don't care for either. Nexus is sort of like +scum above rand versus Church which is an actual scumread. I don't TR T3 either. I think my stance on Robert is clear.
In post 2588, joqiza wrote:I don't think anything VFP did is unfakeable either. He is a townlean, not a townread. Idm if the wagon goes through I just don't care to be on it.
And then he basically just says...nothing about merlot/koto at all before that slot is killed? Like not an attempt to read it, not a suggestion of its alignment, nothing. He doesn't even mention koto's name before he's dead.
And then there's stuff like this, the way VFP spoke to him:
In post 2078, marry wrote:EM was nuked we cant share the game but i in fact do love to bus partners the second its viable for me, ill just confirm it. use it if u want
In post 2067, joqiza wrote:well i've seen her play mafia before and she knows how to bus. actually she's hardbussed several times before and she rarely defends her partners as directly as she did w/ mastina against LLD. i think her frustration with LLD was genuine too altho the frustration is less AI.
also like i said earlier i really doubt the mastina wagon was some big shock to scum. there was a fair amount of pressure on her the day before. also LLD wasn't even the first vote on the mastina wagon. she was the one that actually effected the lim but i believe she was the third or fourth vote. so the wheels were already starting to spin at that point.
Care to share the game?
LMFAO i can't literally my whole site (EpicMafia) got nuked and i have no records
on god though it happened i'll cite the games from memory:
- marry bussing Luciokek in Werewolves vs. Mafia 1.5
- marry hardbussing dia d1 of some game nbt hosted
- marry hardbussing Flygon slot d1 of the game I hosted before SPF subbed in for Flygon
prolly others that i can't remember. i actually can't prove it but i think you'll believe me, it would be absurd for me to be lying about this i think
That's fair enough. I'm not going to argue true or not, but I'm also not going to change my read as different situations matter.
I'll consider it though.
i feel uncomfortable knighting for marry so hard and i think if she's town she will be able to demonstrate she's town on her own
i think she's just town who thought the mastina wagon was weird, tried to engage, engaged with LLD, realized what LLD was saying, then went "welp" and realized she was boutta look scummy af if mastina did end up being mafia
it's just my 2c
I would believe this more if Marry still didn't believe their town read.
Realising what LLD is saying would be a response of "Yeah mastina has a good chance as scum". Not "what i've said about mastina's reads list stands" just before voting there.
I get it probably just looks like a small petty reason, but it was a small reason that made me happy with mastina scum as well.
It's plausible I'm wrong, something just doesn't add with the responses.
Either Marry did cave in and just go along with LLD or Marry didn't change their read and went along with LLD.
I feel the vote would have more confidence if the second one. Even more so how Marry is being described.
maybe it will help if i kinda share my perspective
i basically don't know any of you other than marry, i don't play here very much. actually i've been doing this thing where i play on different sites w/ different communities because i've been trying to better figure out tells that transcend personal meta
when playing in different communities for the first time i've noticed there's sort of a "web" of meta that already exists among people who know each other
when a bunch of people on d1 start SR'ing another person for meta reasons, it's often a decent climate for a scum flip
even if i can't see too well myself, i can sort of read the gamestate in this fashion
i believe marry's attitude may have come from a similar place here. personally i wasn't 100% sure on mastina, but i did think the atmosphere was conducive for her to flip scum because of the people who knew her SRing her. i think marry had similar comments and i think this could explain her position on mastina's wagon while independently TRing her.
does that make any sense @VFP?
Okay, maybe I find this harder to understand as nothing was meta for me yesterday.
But I think I get what you are trying to say? Meta normally suggests alignment in situations like that to players that know them, so you know it's probably a good lead, but don't see the scum side yourself?
My opinion doesn't change even with this information though.
For my money, it looks like scum talking to scum. There's no tension here, the tone is diplomatic, VFP never tries to read joqiza.
There's also the bit of merlot. Look at how merlot describes her townread on marry:
In post 816, Merlot wrote:okay so on a skim of marry: +town because i think that she is more likely to be this comfortable as town rather than scum and would more likely be unwilling to be so buddy buddy especially knowing joqiza is in the game, he was like the only one here who knew her meta before i joined and he’s well aware she is a very charismatic/social player so doing something like she is in the absence of friends is more beneficial to her then in this game where i feel she’s just vibing
Fairly detailed, I feel like this is a "genuine" read with real reasoning. Her read on joqiza?
In post 817, Merlot wrote:also i think joqiza is +town for his reps of marry obvi
Much shorter.
Like in general I'm just thinking...this guy has absolutely no russkie scalps, why should I be considering him as an american?
In post 3848, gorilla wrote:
He passively accepts the mastina wagon, but is sort of awkwardly hesitant to vote for her and tries to stall the hammer. That was the post that started off the whole mognet debacle, but in hindsight, it feels like he mght have been reluctantly holding off on a bus?
I want to respond to this, as I feel it's inaccurate. I didn't stall the hammer, I just didn't rush it. The atmosphere of how that D1 went made me uncomfortable--although I thought mastina had decent odds to flip scum, you can never be sure about a D1 lim, and in the case that she flipped town I felt like participating in a speedlim would essentially be taking part in concentrated bullying. So I took 24 hours out of professionalism, but I don't think the outcome was ever in doubt.
The rest of your post I don't really have anything to say about, other than you're probably picking out the parts that make me bad and disregarding the things I have going for me. Over the course of a 4000 post game there's going to be some of both. I can't control how the scum team talks about me, and I don't think my calls have been particularly good this game. Although I did get RMH right.
W.r.t. Merlot, I actually was slightly curious about some of her posts when she subbed in, but didn't really have enough of a lead to go anywhere with. Then Koto came in and was basically AFK the whole time. I didn't have much to say about them as I figured they'd be cleared out in the initial salvo.
In post 3848, gorilla wrote:in hindsight I don't like his church read as I think it may hav been trying to take advantage of my suspicion there, I don't like him trying to chip away at townreads on save the dragons for nuking koto.
I don't feel this is a fair comment either, as the way I remember it I mentioned my scumread on Church and then you agreed with me, not the other way around.
