Dogs Vs. Cats Mafia | Endgame

[flow trap]

It was redacted?

[MURDERCAT]

Redirects are less likely probabilistically, you have to multiply the 1/gamesize chance with the accuracy in hitting scum, 3/gamesize. Or 2, however many scums were alive. For overlapping kills, you only must apply the 1/gamesize coincidence

Well the dog kill was face up, so that makes it slightly more likely. Also whatever, I'll just say the thing that I was thinking earlier, I think Pooky is responsible for the kill on dwlee either through redirection or 3p.

How do you reconcile thinking 3p is more likely and thinking Titus claim is not true?

[Farkran]

The missing N2 dog kill though really points to kdowns being a real dog cop that was protected, let's not paranoia over that

VOTE: toadette

Chara what's your input on pops?

i have some reasons to believe she is town that are less than i have to be worried about her being scum, are you voting her on a partner tell thing?
i think town Isis also wants to vote Titus here because i still do, so i wouldn't scumread her for that.

the murdercat vote from her is kind of ? though? like i see why she did it but it seems very reactionary and i don't remember seeing a murdercat SR from her.

I am voting her because VCA which is partner-ish to cats but also scummy in a vacuum given how days have ended

I think she's pushing a lot of people for not so valid reasons.

That being said, Shiro voting brave is also appealing

[MURDERCAT]

It was redacted?

I think it is possible, but probably not worth hanging a hat on.

[UC Voyager]

Vote:Brave

This will lead to the light

What light?

[Farkran]

VOTE: brave let's put some more weight on this actually

[flow trap]

It was redacted?

I think it is possible, but probably not worth hanging a hat on.

What part?

[Raya36]

Yes, the initial anything with that slot was due to beeboy, nothing else. But Titus since then has been... something. The more she gets no actual results, the more I'm perplexed by what she's doing here. I don't want to find out this is Titus scum again, I really like Titus town. I don't know if her play in general is just kinda like this, or if this is actually a scumtell for her.

I mean couldn't the alien cop claim thing have been a desperate attempt to not be the elim as she was set up to be?

I find it extremely unlikely that there are an alien cop and a dog cop without a cat cop though

That would put dogs at an extreme disadvantage compared to other enemy factions - maybe cats have a traitor to compensate? Maybe titus is a cat traitor or sk? Maybe kdowns is a dog rolecop that checked andante because of the pr claim?

I'm just trying to redefine associatives rn, taking notes about plausibility.

Anyways, based on the d1 VCs and vote patterns i think Toadette could very well be a cat. @pops tell me why you are not a cat?

I agree but I'm just starting to think aliens aren't even a thing at all. I thought differently when Andante was supporting it but now there doesn't even seem to be a basis for that support.

Why don't you like the Titus push, MC? I can't think of anything that makes sense for town!Titus right now

Statistically there are fewer worlds where Titus is scum as Titus is now confirmed not dog. I don't like that Isis seemed to continue the push without evaluating that information at all the way, Cake, Pooky, and myself did. I'm far from clearing Titus, but it feels like there is an agenda to push Titus beyond evidence that she is scum.

Maybe I'm wrong but there is 0 evidence of anything alien and it just doesn't make sense. I'm also not liking the way Isis is pushing. UNVOTE: for now

[Chara]

Why can't Titus just be a cat..

norwee voted her

Norwee didn't vote Titus? not as far as i can see in his ISO.

[Chara]

It was redacted?

i feel like if we start assuming partial reveal then there will only be madness the farther we search.

[Chara]

Raya: what don't you like about Isis? it seems you agree about the Alien thing.

[Save The Dragons]

i don't know if Titus is a cat or an alien or a french horn but i can't say i believe the claim suddenly just because she's not a dog

[Raya36]

Raya: what don't you like about Isis? it seems you agree about the Alien thing.

I'll explain later. It's not about who is being pushed which I think I agree on, it's what's being pushed

[Chara]

VoteCount 1.49

Murdercat [ 12 ]

farkran, pooky, firebringer, sircakez, brave heart lion, kdowns, ivyeo, norwegianboyEE, kazyan, flow trap, unwnd, andante

NorwegianboyEE [ 4 ]

shiro, raya36, nero cain, anya

Titus [ 3 ]

toadette, flea the magician, MURDERCAT

firebringer [ 2 ]

titus, save the dragons

anya [ 1 ]

dwlee99

raya36 [ 1 ]

chara

Not Voting [ 1 ]

xofelf

With 24 alive it takes 13 votes to be executed.

Countdown to deadline: (expired on 2021-05-17 20:33:31)

VoteCount 1.50

Murdercat [ 10 ]

farkran, pooky, sircakez, brave heart lion, kdowns, norwegianboyEE, kazyan, flow trap, unwnd, andante

NorwegianboyEE [ 8 ]

shiro, raya36, nero cain, save the dragons, anya, firebringer, ivyeo, MURDERCAT

Titus [ 2 ]

toadette, flea the magician

firebringer [ 1 ]

titus

anya [ 1 ]

dwlee99

raya36 [ 1 ]

chara

Not Voting [ 1 ]

xofelf

With 24 alive it takes 13 votes to be executed.

Countdown to deadline: (expired on 2021-05-17 20:33:31)

i think catscum ivyeo is more unlikely given this timing.

and while murdercat and norwee are definitely not aligned, i'm not seeing anything around that time from Norwee or from Titus that would indicate they are not aligned. in fact Norwee explicitly didn't want to eliminate Titus and was asking for other wagons. which, yes, is maybe too obvious for them to actually be partners given Norwee's position at the time.

[Toadette]

Redirects are less likely probabilistically, you have to multiply the 1/gamesize chance with the accuracy in hitting scum, 3/gamesize. Or 2, however many scums were alive. For overlapping kills, you only must apply the 1/gamesize coincidence

Well the dog kill was face up, so that makes it slightly more likely. Also whatever, I'll just say the thing that I was thinking earlier, I think Pooky is responsible for the kill on dwlee either through redirection or 3p.

How do you reconcile thinking 3p is more likely and thinking Titus claim is not true?

I think a 3p with a gun is more likely, and Titus is explicitly claiming the presence of a faction that does not have unlimited gunshots. Making a faction, calling it "aliens" which traditionally have 0 shot or one shot, giving it two shots, then telling Titus she is looking for aliens without telling her she is looking for modified aliens is a type of bastard that is outside the scope of what tsq seemed to be indicating was possible in his forewarnings and disclaimers.

So it actually pushes against Titus's claim since there's a limit to how many third parties can be in the setup.

The most likely scenario where Titus is town is not a redirector, but an alien faction with one kill per game that holstered night one for reasons we don't know. I can't rule that out but I don't think that possibility is good enough for Titus to live on

[Chara]

Raya: what don't you like about Isis? it seems you agree about the Alien thing.

I'll explain later. It's not about who is being pushed which I think I agree on, it's what's being pushed

sure.

i'm not sure how much stock i'm willing to put in the idea given the flips we've had, but my thinking on toadette is i can see why she is getting some suspicion and it's for things i feel she would not have done as scum, such as the behavior of sniffing around everywhere and pressing at everything to see what sticks. responding to my questioning of the murdercat vote with "i don't think cat's scum really i'm just annoyed" seems more of a town Isis thing to do.

also she made a good point earlier about how i had reason to be more afraid of her given what happened last time. not sure what she thought of my answer though.

[Chara]

The most likely scenario where Titus is town is not a redirector, but an alien faction with one kill per game that holstered night one for reasons we don't know. I can't rule that out but I don't think that possibility is good enough for Titus to live on

i kind of want her to live today though. unless you think Norwee refused to vote his scumpartner for wifom? or is this a dumb question to ask.

[Toadette]

I think Pooky's reaction to the flips was weird

Pedit: Chara to be honest idk how you know I'm town this game or how anyone could. I think some of the reasons for suspecting me are bad though

[Toadette]

I guess we could kill pooky maybe pooky will flip alien

[Raya36]

Yeah, there's a good chance I'm wrong based on that but I do want to let it sit for a bit then I'll come back to it later just in case

pedit: this was at Chara's response to me

[Chara]

I think Pooky's reaction to the flips was weird

Pedit: Chara to be honest idk how you know I'm town this game or how anyone could. I think some of the reasons for suspecting me are bad though

i don't know you're town, i said why i think you are, do you think the assessment of why is wrong?

it's hard to conceive of scum Isis playing this lackadaisically.

[Raya36]

I'm not opposed to pooky

[Chara]

I think Pooky's reaction to the flips was weird

Pedit: Chara to be honest idk how you know I'm town this game or how anyone could. I think some of the reasons for suspecting me are bad though

Pooky saying that Norwee voted Titus as a reason for Titus not being a cat is weird when the opposite happened.

[Chara]

i just responded to both halves of the same quote in different posts........

[MURDERCAT]

What part?

The possibility of traitor when assessing partner tells