Happy Face Mafia (Game Over)

[willow1]

My boozle requires assistance, VFP.

Because you're focus is going where I'm thinking.
Your questions aren't questions to look busy but actually want the answers.
164 is a decent take, even if some errors.

the quoted:

willow
Romance
Raya
Titus

-----NULL LINE-----

VFP
samantha
Enchant

-Bam

has an interesting readslist that iirc will remain mostly unchanged from bam? they might move vfp up later but considering bam was the scum nk might be worth digging deeper into that iso too, on the face of it shooting this slot makes a lot of sense if they're 2 for 3 still at EoD

[willow1]

vfp also gave 5 town as hardtown day 2 wo welp.

read on jjh is kind of sketchy:

219 shows no concern of the game, which could be because there's no pressure on them. 490 / 490 / 495 / 498 / 502 are posts just saying what people want to hear.
504 is jjh's first solid take for me, and is in favour of a town to scum post here. I like the Raya / Smantha scum leans as I don't favour either of these, the Retti being added just gives opportnity for a back lash.
The rest of the ISO seems like filler. I'm not so much as scum on this slot, but I don't favour them as scum over town if I had to pick.

there isn't a real point to this next quoted sequence it's just hilarious in hindsight, dunn a straight shooter

VOTE: jjh927

Anybody else want to do a sanity check and go over Andate's iso in relation to her stance on me?

Where did 1361 and 1368 come from?

Outside of Andante and jjh do you have any reads?
I can't see your stance on anyone else.

[willow1]

ok the second the titus lim starts happening i'm thinking vfp is town, stays on raya/titus for awhile over andante which isn't great but the whole time he's making it clear he doesn't feel good about a titus vote and actively fights a dunn vote. metas titus to argue for the no elim, arguably that's all just for cred but the second the guilty gets whipped out on andante the process he pulls out is super believable.

later he irons out the clears/extremely hard townreads and comes up with this the second andante flips

Even with me in the pool it should just be jjh, me, Raya, and Drapjon for last scum.

this dude really wants to lose the game as scum

[willow1]

i'm very wrong in my memory about bamboozle

hectic's got vfp as one of his strongest townreads (second 2 me tho~~) and is hardpushing raya at EoD

pretty close to just voting raya

[Raya36]

You sound weirdly defensive over that Raya, like I'm dismissing it and you're telling me to dismiss it after the fact...

That was a thought on the whole topic in general, not to you directly. I just quoted yours for context

anyway since flea claimed macho you should probably lynch me, since we may autolose even if there's only 1 mafia left

So if we elim you then we will also lose a town to the night kill but we won't lose a town to you. So it'll be 3 townies and 1 mafia if I'm not mistaken? Or 2 townies lost overnight and then 1 mafia and 2 townies for mylo

the only downside to lynching me is the potential for 2 mafia or 1 mafia+traitor to exist, so if everyone is confident it's just 1 person left then we should/we shouldn't if we're not confident

I think I'm town reading enough people that I feel good about this

I'd be ok with Sam or no-elim I think

[willow1]

ok i didn't get as much out of andante's iso as i hoped, and her interactions with jjh make me think i underestimated her to begin w/ even if that overreaction to me was hella rookie

[willow1]

so i think jjh's progression on raya is actually pretty telling

Aside from you being locktown
Bear hydra is locktown
Enchant is town
Bamboozle is town
VFP is town
Bell is town
Wheme looks town
Titus looked town but I'm not sure I can read Titus


Raya is a scumlean, as is samantha, and I'm torn on Retti

Raya's approach to sam just looked really strange, and I feel conflicted on Retti because I've liked the posts but they don't quite radiate town

these posts were made when jjh was the only vote on raya. vfp is the top wagon at this point but it's dying.

Bell's last post looked really bad

Does Bell have any inactive town games or is relative inactivity actually a scumtell? I'd be somewhat happy to vote there if so, and I have mixed feelings about the counterwagon forming on Raya.

now suddenly he has mixed feelings on the counterwagon, and the most recent vc is this:

3rd time is the charm lol
Bell (5): Esooa, Bamboozle, Enchant, PenguinPower, Bear HUGS
samantha97 (5): Raya36, VFP, Romance, willow1, T3
Raya36 (5): jjh927, WhemeStar, Titus, samantha97, Retti
Enchant (1): Dunnstral
Romance (1): Bell
Retti (1): Flea The Magician

yikes.

finally, the post that's most interesting to me is this one. it's right after robert has claimed seer and is obviously going to get yeeted out the window.

I think it's worth waiting for clarification on the claim before talking about multiball or even taking it seriously

On another note, I'm back to being happy with Raya votes. This can be another piece of evidence in favour of my lazy playstyle guiding the elim onto scum with minimal effort

what makes this post fascinating to me is that jjh is not playing to improve his own selfimage or position here. w/ the seer claim robert flip is now unavoidable, but instead of just taking the L and moving on and voting robert he returns to aimlessly voicing the desire for raya votes. this will obviously not look great when bell flips, and at a minimum he's not getting credibility to get a day 2 push on raya

if he's not trying to flip raya, and he's not trying to look better himself, whose position is he trying to improve by playing this way? my thought process is this benefits raya, or way, way later down the line himself if raya flips instead

[willow1]

going down your list retti for vfp some of these stuck out to me

- Andante barely acknowledges his existence

i think andante actually did a better job than we originally thought w/ partner interactions, go back and look at her/jjh and her/enchant.going down your list retti for vfp

- jjh calls him town earlier and buddies Esooa for "challenging the VFP wagon", otherwise calls him town with nothing attached, mentions him as a scumlean late with no reasons attached to it

fair enough but i read this as jjh being very afraid of esooa and wanting to get on her good side; see post of him explicitly saying "you're already in my townpile". it's weird to insert himself here and try so hard for an esooa townread while she's already swooped into save a partner VFP and is actively championing him. this is someone afraid of being cornered by a strong town w/ correct reads (esooa) imo

- wants Titus over andante (1432) but otherwise barely acknowledges her existence (1813 also looks weird on a revisit)

this wasn't that bad i think given his meta on titus+him making it clear he wasn't enthused with the vote to begin with.

the things you brought up that i need to chew on b/c they're valid concerns are that VFP didn't weigh in as much on scum slots, which is a problem if it holds on all the flipped scum

[willow1]

vfp, i'm been using "him" but this is incorrect and i should be using they/them. i am very sorry for the mistake and will try to correct it moving forward and i am especially sorry i didn't notice until after the reread

[willow1]

tl;dr of all my conclusions

-raya softdefending scum like it's her fulltime job
-jjh scared of esooa nailing vfp town and defusing that 1v1
-jjh raya progression some ass
-vfp had a pretty town d2 with resisting all the large townwagons+i liked their reaction to andante d3 even if arguably null

i wanna no elim into vote raya

[willow1]

also important one i missed

-bam had vfp town and was hardpushing raya at end of day 1

hypothetically if jjh wants a raya wagon at some point - whether he's the one driving it or not - this makes no sense

[samantha97]

I'm not macho ^_^

I just realized I was thinking macho was reverse-weak anyway

[Retti]

ok the second the titus lim starts happening i'm thinking vfp is town, stays on raya/titus for awhile over andante which isn't great but the whole time he's making it clear he doesn't feel good about a titus vote and actively fights a dunn vote. metas titus to argue for the no elim, arguably that's all just for cred but the second the guilty gets whipped out on andante the process he pulls out is super believable.

later he irons out the clears/extremely hard townreads and comes up with this the second andante flips

Even with me in the pool it should just be jjh, me, Raya, and Drapjon for last scum.

this dude really wants to lose the game as scum

I feel like you're assuming some amount of optimal play from scum which is, uh, not an assumption I would be comfortable making

But I'll look your stuff over later tonight, don't have time to think it over right now

[Retti]

Meh I was going to see if there was an argument for fading today and yolo'ing the dice roll but the math doesn't add up even if I think there's a practical case for it

[Raya36]

tl;dr of all my conclusions

-raya softdefending scum like it's her fulltime job
-jjh scared of esooa nailing vfp town and defusing that 1v1
-jjh raya progression some ass
-vfp had a pretty town d2 with resisting all the large townwagons+i liked their reaction to andante d3 even if arguably null

i wanna no elim into vote raya

If majority wants that then just elim me now instead so we have another chance next day.

[Retti]

In practical terms, if we're wrong now on someone, 1/4 chance they die overnight and we get to re-evaluate, while if we vote someone today it's 1/3 chance we get a lucky die roll and the scum kill stacks with the vig.

But I don't feel like gambling, and if no fade is the direction people want to go I think it's best to stop talking altogether at this point.

[Raya36]

If we no fade, then it'll likely be mylo right?

[samantha97]

If we no fade, then it'll likely be mylo right?

6 today

if nolynch there's 3 tomorrow (my poison death + my vig + mafia nk), unless my vig and nightkill overlap

we're already there, the point of doing it would just be to hit you if you're town basically

the downside is we auto lose if 2 mafia

but uh I think we lost already if you're town anyway

[samantha97]

oh yeah I forgot if I ever said this but how my mask worked was I had to be out of shots and could only wear it at night + had to wait a full day after wearing it before it was usable

i.e. n1 vig -> n2 put on mask -> n3 could use mask

reason I'm saying this (again?) is because the poison mask could have the same kind of delay

[Retti]

If there were 2 mafia it would be almost impossible for town to actually win but I know that's not the case so

[samantha97]

know how?

as you can tell from the post above, I'm not sure what has been said anymore

[Retti]

Because the first thing I learned from my ability was that there are 4 mafia in the game. But even if that were a lie and there were 2 mafia remaining I just lol selfvote and we get 3 NKs and probably win the game regardless

(not to mention 13:5 would be EXTREMELY fucked with something as antitown as your mask)

[Raya36]

If we no fade, then it'll likely be mylo right?

6 today

if nolynch there's 3 tomorrow (my poison death + my vig + mafia nk), unless my vig and nightkill overlap

we're already there, the point of doing it would just be to hit you if you're town basically

the downside is we auto lose if 2 mafia

but uh I think we lost already if you're town anyway

Right, so it would be a gamble, hoping the vig hits me.

And if we elim me instead of no elim then 4 town would die total and scum win.

I think no elim is the safest. I don't think I can convince everyone to vote elsewhere and I wouldn't even trust myself enough to pick the right person.

I do just think it's VFP. Everyone else has been very obvtown or basically clear. But I don't trust that enough to elim instead of no elim.

[Retti]

VOTE: no fade

[Raya36]

VOTE: no fade