Mini Normal 2209: Musicals II [Endgame]

[Dannflor]

VC 2.01

Apex Predator

votes

[3] Not Voting

:

InsidiousLemons, UNOwen, ChannelDelibird

[2] bloodhail

:

Anya, ItalianoVD

[1] ItalianoVD

:

T3

[1] UNOwen

:

bloodhail

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to eliminate

The Day 2 deadline is in

: (expired on 2021-06-06 03:04:10)

Mod Notes

:

[T3]

VOTE: bloodhail

[T3]

E-1.

[bloodhail]

can you not E-1 me 14 hours into the day, idiot

[bloodhail]

what is even with that vote, actually

[T3]

Using towncred to do nothing and votein the poe.

[bloodhail]

for the record i meant what i said about the boxxy kill: it was horrible and potentially game-losing for scum in a 9p, regardless of the fact that he was more or less obvious town

i don't think cdb makes that kill unless i'm badly overestimating him. beyond that, ehh. reads not very strong

[bloodhail]

Using towncred to do nothing and votein the poe.

who the fuck was giving me towncred besides you

do u rly think i was "doing nothing"

"vote in the poe", you mean right now, or yesterday? b/c i think theres a reasonable chance unowen is scum because his attempted case on boxxy was stinky dog crap and his reads outside that were lukewarm townreads on other peoples votes

[InsidiousLemons]

italiano is conftown. he friendly neighbour'd me last night. i was debating keeping this to myself but there is just no way it would be believable that i

wouldn't

be hard pushing italiano today given the strength and conviction of my opinions on him yesterday.

sorry for tunneling you italiano ^^;

[InsidiousLemons]

why is the boxxy kill "woefully bad" if it came from you or cdb, but you can believe it came from unowen?

[bloodhail]

whoever killed boxxy was likely someone intimidated by his reads and wanted him out of the way regardless of being a claimed vt because they didnt want him pushing them (this is also probably a good look for lemons)

i ~always shoot for a PR here night 1 after losing a partner

the easy answer is scum in italiano/unowen but T3's vote on me really sucks complete ass and makes me want to rescind that read

p-edit: well that makes things easier

[T3]

K, got it.
IUNOwen or bloodhail at this point. Outside of the nm flip bloodhail is a tr.

[bloodhail]

why is the boxxy kill "woefully bad" if it came from you or cdb, but you can believe it came from unowen?

because cdb has been around a while and would know shooting a claimed VT is pants on head stupid

unowen is new and might not know that killing a VT in a 9p when you've lost a partner potentially loses the game because there could be a town investigative or jailkeeper or something like that that can turn the game into a mechanical win

[bloodhail]

meh even in unowens newbie scumgame there was an attempt to pr hunt

but who else kills boxxy, really

[bloodhail]

K, got it.
IUNOwen or bloodhail at this point. Outside of the nm flip bloodhail is a tr.

do u think i 1. dont take hammer on boxxy when given the chance 2. hesitate to bus nm but dont do anything to save him

i said id vote him all day doesnt make me scum that i got beat to the hammer

[Anya]

VOTE: channeldelbird

sure i'll invest in some of this stock

i forgot boxxy claimed vt that is a strange kill then probably motivated by boxxy's recording of nightmares in his dream journal

[InsidiousLemons]

whoever killed boxxy was likely someone intimidated by his reads and wanted him out of the way regardless of being a claimed vt because they didnt want him pushing them

do we really think unowen would implicate himself this hard though? i get that he's new but it seems pretty obvious that killing someone you've been pushing all day and who scumreads you in return is a bad idea

[InsidiousLemons]

K, got it.
IUNOwen or bloodhail at this point. Outside of the nm flip bloodhail is a tr.

do u think i 1. dont take hammer on boxxy when given the chance 2. hesitate to bus nm but dont do anything to save him

i said id vote him all day doesnt make me scum that i got beat to the hammer

1. i don't believe you'd hammer boxxy without a claim because that looks scummy as shit, and T3 unvoted literally 3 minutes after the claim. you weren't really given the chance
2. saying you'll vote someone all day and never actually doing it is a scum tactic

[UNOwen]

VOTE: bloodhail

This feels pretty straightforward.

[InsidiousLemons]

i think we are actually getting shockingly close to a gamesolve here.

consider the following:

• italiano is conftown via his friendly neighbour night action. you can disbelieve me if you want, but unless there's 3 scum in a 9p there is no reason for me to lie about this
  
• anya is all but conftown for 352 (the third vote out of five on n_m's wagon), 374, 386 and 388. scumpartner anya has absolutely no reason to work this hard to get others to vote him
  
• channeldelibird isn't
  necessarily
  clear, but he makes a valid point in 403 that his play would be pretty atrocious coming from scum. he voted n_m in 345 (only the second vote on the wagon) and left the door open to moving his vote (didn't give a strong reason for voting in the first place and said he "may move it in a bit"), and then just... didn't, even though he was in the thread in the hours leading up to the n_m elim. that's pretty compelling, no?

so that narrows it down to owen, t3, bloodhail, or me.

as i said above (466), i don't think the case for scum!owen is very strong. anya's point about he and n_m voting boxxy together being negative equity is valid too. i could be wrong, but unless someone brings new evidence to the table i don't see it.

i don't really think it's t3 based on his play this game. see my 312 -- this is a weak townread, so again, i could be wrong, but i don't see a convincing reason why this is scum. his play feels organic enough, and he was the one who put N_M down to E-1. what reason does scum!T3 have for the change of heart in 397?

i'm obviously not going to advocate for my own elimination, so we come to bloodhail.

while posts like 154, 157, and 324 point away from a n_m-bloodhail partnership, he never really makes a concerted push in not_mafia's direction and it would be very hard for him to switch tracks after saying "you will probably need to policy him at some point" (154). it's wifom-y, but i get the sense that he didn't really expect not_mafia to be the lim D1 (hence "at some point") -- when he said this, there were only 2 votes on N_M. only 6 posts after this:

im either giving someone a free pass when i shouldnt be or not_mafia is scum

he switches his vote to... cdb. does this not read like bloodhail sensing the n_m momentum picking up and deciding to push the next most prominent wagon as a counter? and do 395 and 400 not look like covering his tracks when it was all but decided (and, in the case of 400, literally already decided) that not_mafia would be the lim?

tell me what you guys think. am i reading too much into some of bloodhail's posts? maybe. but i do think he's the most likely partner.

[bloodhail]

on further reflection T3 is bad at this game so he might make that kill

[bloodhail]

VOTE: bloodhail

This feels pretty straightforward.

how much are you willing to bet on it, fucko

[bloodhail]

he switches his vote to... cdb. does this not read like bloodhail sensing the n_m momentum picking up and deciding to push the next most prominent wagon as a counter?

if i sensed there was momentum on not_mafia id have voted him lmao

but half the people day 1 were stupidly resistant to it

additionally cdb was an actual scumread because he wasn't producing things resembling solving where not_mafia is literally a shot in the dark. a vote on cdb is likely to produce some level of useful response

not hard

[InsidiousLemons]

you're basing your solve almost entirely on who is "bad enough" to NK boxxy rather than on yesterday's dayplayt. you are either scum or are too hyperfocused to see that scum may have doubted boxxy's vt claim, or may have weighed the options and decided a boxxy kill was worth it anyway, or may have killed him to implicate another player, or may have simply forgotten about or not paid adequate attention to the claim, as anya did. hell, i've played more than my fair share of 9p games, but if you asked me whether shooting a vt after losing a partner d1 substantially increases scum's chances of losing the game, i'd have said no. it's entirely possible that whoever shot boxxy may just not have had the awareness to know that it was a bad idea, nevermind all the examples above where they did know and decided to do it anyway.

[InsidiousLemons]

fwiw the large normal ended overnight, in that game i was scum with t3 and bussed him day 1

single game meta is terrible but his play that game was absurdly scummy with bizarre overconfident pushes with terrible reasoning and blatant opportunism

granted i had an insider perspective on his play that game so the qualities may have been more noticeable in my mind

dont think hes playing like that here altho i did have a brief moment of doubt when i made a list

on further reflection T3 is bad at this game so he might make that kill

look, you did it just now. what is the rationale behind disregarding the townpoints from your meta knowledge of t3 in favour of the idea that he's bad enough at the game that he may indeed have made the kill? i understand that 443 is far from an endorsement of t3, but the "on further reflection" suggests that you're at least partially rescinding what you've already said about him today. why does the revelation that t3 is "bad at this game" outweigh the fact that he isn't playing the way he did when he was scum?