Open 811 - Lovers and Losers (New Game+) [Game Over]

[yessiree]

VC 2.6

With 8 votes, it takes 5 to eliminate.

LlamaFluff (2)

- Anastasia, Bambi Jay

Bambi Jay (1)

- LlamaFluff

Note voting - T-Bone, Kerset, RationalMadman, Bingle, VFP

Day 2 ends in (expired on 2021-06-02 16:00:00)

[Bingle]

What does this mean, I thought I gave this already when being voted off.

You did, to an extent, but we have a very limited list of options to consider with more information available than we had yesterday and I'd like your thoughts on all of them.

From a RationalMadman PoV, if you're town the viable scumteams are:

LF/us
Bambi/us
LF/TBVFP
Bambi/TBVFP

I'd like you to look at each of those teams individually and say if you think they make sense, with as concise a set of reasoning as you possibly can.

[Bingle]

VC

CV

[Bingle]

Two, I'm deciding whether Bambi reversed pocketed me on Day 1, but the only person I can reliably discuss that with is VFP.

So... Where is this discussion?

Do you not realize that you discussing with VFP might inform the reads of those players who are also trying to determine if it's LF or Bambi? If you're town and you guess right, that literally doesn't matter if the other town pair doesn't guess right.

[Bingle]

TBone's townread of Bambi was very early and very underdeveloped, but he never actually addressed that when asked.

He did revaluate that it could be due to pocket.

I stopped my reread at like page 30, but if you could link it I'd be appreciative.

[Bingle]

I think there's a major misconception here. We're eliminating in LF/Bambi today, that much is true. There is absolutely no reason we shouldn't also be looking at the alignments of the other three pairs, because if we're right today we still have to win the rest of the game.

[VFP]

TBone/VFP, apologies if I missed it but do you agree that Ana/LF probably isn't S/S?

I wouldn't write it off.
My concern here is just the attempt to get people to defend Llama over Ana and hope for Bambi counter votes for RM and Ana to hammer.

Is not a high % chance, but its enough for me not to ignore it.
It also holds merit after I'm pushing that scum want to not bus at all, scum decide to go this route.

Losing scum Llama is something RM and Ana can continue, but I believe RM is in favour of Bambi? Maybe conflict of scum, or maybe scum trying to disagree to look towny.

Then again it could just be you, Kerset, and Llama like I originally said.

If I had to vote right now I'd choose Llama.
And probably still RM / Ana... on the spot, of course.

All I know is either you and Kersel, or RM and Ana want me and T-Bone to argue with the other pair to the death.

[Bambi Jay]

I'm ok with Bambi being elimmed here.

If she flips town i'll get to say i told you so

if she flips scum i'll get to avoid disaster and blame

I am so good at this game.

That is literally the opposite of a town mindset and you should feel bad.

For complaining about Ration atleast he's fighting to kill me with effort and spirit. If you garuntee scumread Llama over me switching vote is admitting to being scum because for town that's gamethrowing.

[Bambi Jay]

While I'm at it, since I kinda ignored ya in favor of bullying Ration, why did you vote so early in day 2? Me and Llama are excused because we know the other is evil, but you putting your vote out there and even contemplating switching over with Ration already saying his vote is on me?

Don't encourage people to vote your townread unless your partner is Llama.

[LlamaFluff]

Nope. Its now at best WIFOM. Its actually probably detrimental to an extent because a wrong read from me probably loses us the game right here. Scum get ammo, town can get paranoid or somewhat OMGUSy. As stated many times, any tells between VT pool and Lover pool are weak at best outside of maybe today where scum will take a win if they can.

Theory chain:

Today the motivation of {LF, Bambi} is to get {Bambi, LF} elimmed, regardless of alignment.
Whichever of {LF, Bambi} is town also has the motivation of being able to find scum in the outside pool.
Whichever of {LF, Bambi} is scum also has the motivation of being able to leave their partners as looking town if they are the elimination today.
Point 2 is a stronger motivation than point 3, as it will always be relevant to that player.
If today does not end in a scumwin, whoever is town in {LF, Bambi} will be the most trusted voice for the rest of the game, and, more importantly, will definitely be able to post.

Why should we not look at the sole aspect of the game where you and Bambi have inherently different motivations? Do you disagree with any of this?

Point one yes
Point four yes
Two and Three are WIFOM unless you are actually trying to say that you feel you can accurately tell the difference between town pushing reads and scum faking a read assuming they are going to die and scum faking a read trying to win it right here. Remember scum have daytalk, they get to coordinate exactly what the Goon does here. Not only all of that but it starts getting into a threat area of what happens if my reads go against town pair reads? Like if I said that "I think its probably X, if not them Y as I am almost 100% sure its not Z" and Z is your top scum pick. If you are town do you think that actually has zero impact on your read of me? Its all WIFOM and its all stuff that scum can very easily manipulate. I need to prove I am town, and I think everyone knows that my reads on anyone else today are pretty much irrelevant. The ones who are probably most worried about them are scum, because if I lock in correctly today, they cant afford to bus.

Its why this setup is actually pretty flawed. Goon and Lover pair have absolutely zero loyalty to each other, and the fact that so many people seem to think otherwise is why scum pretty much was going to win last roll. This time I know that, so am not going to let scum play town the exact way that I was getting ready to last time.

[RationalMadman]

What does this mean, I thought I gave this already when being voted off.

You did, to an extent, but we have a very limited list of options to consider with more information available than we had yesterday and I'd like your thoughts on all of them.

From a RationalMadman PoV, if you're town the viable scumteams are:

LF/us
Bambi/us
LF/TBVFP
Bambi/TBVFP

I'd like you to look at each of those teams individually and say if you think they make sense, with as concise a set of reasoning as you possibly can.

LF makes less sense with Tbone and VFP.

Bambi makes sense with both but because of interactions, not Bambi herself but external interactions with Bambi, I think Bambi is scum with Tbone and VFP (not going to say 'if scum' that's pointless disclaimer, I believe Bambi is scum here).

The reason Llama as scum makes more sense with you and Kerset is not dorectly the unvoting of me at all, that is if anything a sign he's with Tbone and got scared, it's because you so readily pushed on S_S with him, split your votes with Kerset and he showed absolutely no issue with it.

Also, something very strange has happened to both you AND Llama. Day one I think I was the only member of this game that actively opposed the way people were grouping teams solely based on an assumption that Scum don't distance in this setup. I believe I was directly disagreed on this by both Tbone's pair (VFP especially) and you (but not Kerset). The only vanilla claim that directly agreed with me was S_S, Vex actually disagreed with me on this and when S_S said it would be stupid for the lone to buddy the pair it's what made me townread him even harder thsn I already did and want badly for the Bambi elim to happen instead of S_S.

This dayphase suddenly you and Llama both, as well as VFP have suddenly hard-dedicated to perceiving bussing and distancing. Seems like a convenient way to avoid townreading me and Ana despite you boyh saying if S_S is Town we are probably Town last day (not sure you explicitly said this but I am certain I recall it being strongly implied by you and explicitly stated hy VFP who has totally turned their reasoning.

[RationalMadman]

I'm ok with Bambi being elimmed here.

If she flips town i'll get to say i told you so

if she flips scum i'll get to avoid disaster and blame

I am so good at this game.

Why is Bambi Town, explain it. Your current attitude and hard push on Llama isn't helping anything. If Llama is scum, you are not helping at all. Explain why Bambi is townread by you please, you're reading with tunnel-vision and that isn't okay at such a crucial vote. Llama reads as Townier than Bambi to me.

[Bingle]

Two and Three are WIFOM unless you are actually trying to say that you feel you can accurately tell the difference between town pushing reads and scum faking a read assuming they are going to die and scum faking a read trying to win it right here. Remember scum have daytalk, they get to coordinate exactly what the Goon does here. Not only all of that but it starts getting into a threat area of what happens if my reads go against town pair reads? Like if I said that "I think its probably X, if not them Y as I am almost 100% sure its not Z" and Z is your top scum pick. If you are town do you think that actually has zero impact on your read of me? Its all WIFOM and its all stuff that scum can very easily manipulate. I need to prove I am town, and I think everyone knows that my reads on anyone else today are pretty much irrelevant. The ones who are probably most worried about them are scum, because if I lock in correctly today, they cant afford to bus.

Two and three are literally the point of mafia.

Attempting to discern the motivations of other players while some of those other players are genuine and some of those players are not is literally the definition of the genre of game we're playing.

I'm not asking you for "TBone is town." I'm asking you to provide reasoning behind "TBone is town" that I can look at and go "Oh, hey, this makes sense." or "I could see why a town player might think that" or "There's no way anyone actually comes to that conclusion, he's full of shit."

If you need to prove you're town, how are you going to do that without saying things that can, you know, actually be analyzed?

[Bingle]

Also, something very strange has happened to both you AND Llama. Day one I think I was the only member of this game that actively opposed the way people were grouping teams solely based on an assumption that Scum don't distance in this setup. I believe I was directly disagreed on this by both Tbone's pair (VFP especially) and you (but not Kerset). The only vanilla claim that directly agreed with me was S_S, Vex actually disagreed with me on this and when S_S said it would be stupid for the lone to buddy the pair it's what made me townread him even harder thsn I already did and want badly for the Bambi elim to happen instead of S_S.

Distancing and Bussing are very different from Buddying.

This setup encourages distancing and bussing because it doesn't actually change the number of necessary miseliminations for scum to win.
This setup doesn't encourage buddying a scumpartner.

Also, I don't recall doing much partner analysis yesterday, although what I've done today does actually lead me to believe you're town. (Which should be evident from the last few pages.)

[LlamaFluff]

Two and Three are WIFOM unless you are actually trying to say that you feel you can accurately tell the difference between town pushing reads and scum faking a read assuming they are going to die and scum faking a read trying to win it right here. Remember scum have daytalk, they get to coordinate exactly what the Goon does here. Not only all of that but it starts getting into a threat area of what happens if my reads go against town pair reads? Like if I said that "I think its probably X, if not them Y as I am almost 100% sure its not Z" and Z is your top scum pick. If you are town do you think that actually has zero impact on your read of me? Its all WIFOM and its all stuff that scum can very easily manipulate. I need to prove I am town, and I think everyone knows that my reads on anyone else today are pretty much irrelevant. The ones who are probably most worried about them are scum, because if I lock in correctly today, they cant afford to bus.

Two and three are literally the point of mafia.

Attempting to discern the motivations of other players while some of those other players are genuine and some of those players are not is literally the definition of the genre of game we're playing.

I'm not asking you for "TBone is town." I'm asking you to provide reasoning behind "TBone is town" that I can look at and go "Oh, hey, this makes sense." or "I could see why a town player might think that" or "There's no way anyone actually comes to that conclusion, he's full of shit."

If you need to prove you're town, how are you going to do that without saying things that can, you know, actually be analyzed?

You actually cant read either me or Bambi without first having us tell you who we think is scum outside of our pool, who at least for me at least is probably going to be heavily influenced by the way they act today? Its pointless to look ahead right now. All that going to do is create more noise and potential conflict, which pretty much is all scum needs to win.

If you are so interested in reads, just go back and compare me coming up with pushing things and Bambi doing the same. There is a pretty distinct lack of ever trying to push something from one of us, as one tended to just sheep the other all of D1.

[Bambi Jay]

To Ration, Bingle, and Kerset... Ana too I guess

Do all 4 of you agree I'm most likely to be partnered with Tbone and VFP? Genuine question because that'll tell me the course of action I gotta take.

[RationalMadman]

To Ration, Bingle, and Kerset... Ana too I guess

Do all 4 of you agree I'm most likely to be partnered with Tbone and VFP? Genuine question because that'll tell me the course of action I gotta take.

First answer my question to you.

[RationalMadman]

Distancing and Bussing are very different from Buddying.

Identical spectrum, opposite ends.

[Anastasia]

That is literally the opposite of a town mindset and you should feel bad.

For complaining about Ration atleast he's fighting to kill me with effort and spirit. If you garuntee scumread Llama over me switching vote is admitting to being scum because for town that's gamethrowing.

At some point winning a game matters less to me than preserving my sanity.

I passed that point a long time ago.

whatever will be will be.

[Bambi Jay]

Okay. My other question for ya then I asked the others, but from your perspective am I more likely to be a team with Team Tbone or team Bingle?

[Anastasia]

Why is Bambi Town, explain it. Your current attitude and hard push on Llama isn't helping anything. If Llama is scum, you are not helping at all. Explain why Bambi is townread by you please, you're reading with tunnel-vision and that isn't okay at such a crucial vote. Llama reads as Townier than Bambi to me.

because their response to the offer of a BoP shot felt more like scum scrambling away from a hot poker than town eager to take up the sword and stab the shit out of a bad guy.

[RationalMadman]

I am literally the only person in this game who thinks you are scum other than the person you are death-dueling and who you are confirmed scum to.

Saying that this path is harder for you to take than eliminating me/RM is laughable.

Why would you not want to keep RM alive when he's hard-deathtunneling the person you need to eliminate?

Work the other way around.

Imagine Llama is Town there and Bambi is Scum, things add up even more so in my opinion.

Why did Bambi scumread you and I in the first place? Bambi didn't justify the vote at all other than finding me annoying to play with. I have never seen a more scummy series of voting patterns and reasons for voting than Bambi had in Day Phase 1.

You're only focusing on Llama, focus on Bambi and then try and read the situation backwards and think which is more probable.

Llama unvoted you and me and led on S_S so hard, why? I don't know the reason if he is Scum except for fear of our flip putting his team and himself in danger.

I want Bambi and Llama to fully justify why they voted us. No quoting themselves, rewriting any and all reasoning in a fresh post.

Since Bambi is refusing to comply with my clear request to answer this post, I am physically voting her without any hesitation or unvoting until she does answer it. If Ana votes her and the scum pair hammers and she is Town, I will feel absolutely no regret now.

Scum is less afraid than real vanilla to be voted off here, not complying this long is a scumtell, not a towntell.

VOTE: Bambi Jay

[RationalMadman]

I made it even clearer by putting in bold to my reply to Llama's answer, that I wanted Bambi to answer/explain.

[RationalMadman]

I want Bambi and Llama to fully justify why they voted us. No quoting themselves, rewriting any and all reasoning in a fresh post.

Because Ana.

They did nothing the entire game really. The closest they came to actually scumhunting was talking about how that they apparently (note this was after I had been calling VV scum) give me the shot to take out a VT, and if I was wrong I go next. That was really bothering me and still actually does, its the only reason I dont 100% buy your two as the town pair. Also their entire attack on me up until I voted for them seemed to be "they are trying to take control of the game like they did as scum".... when you have no meta on both sides, it starts becoming somewhat flawed without additional context, as in again (which Ana still refuses to confirm) how I said bussing is optimal as scum if you feel it wins the game.

Ana did pretty much nothing until under immense pressure to do something or die. What they did do

knowing I am town is really suspect as it starts trying to give them free outs

if they are wrong. When you couple that with them just trying to befriend Kerset (which mirrors their near absolute lack of content in scum topic last game), it felt very wrong. So yeah. It was pretty much entirely Ana.

This is actually all true except the part I have in bold as that's loaded logic.

It also adds up because Ana only actually outed her full reads and theory while we were on our way to get voted off.

However, I'd like to clarify that this 'only active when under pressure' is not a scumtell. It implies to me that Ana was simply bored with the game and only felt a need to do something when the pressure got intense, I admit I know Ana is Town so I'm biased. Ana's ethos and psyche could be equated to a chronic procrastinator, some people regularly cram things for when the pressure is intense, it's just how they're wired, I reckon Ana is that way and feels this game is more of a chore than fun so approaches it that way. I think she does this ireespectit of alignment so I can't say it's a Towntell but it surely isn't a Scumtell.

If Ana is Scum (from your POV) and only reacts to pressure, why is she still very active and desperate to vote you? What pressure is there if her and I are scum (in this case, from your Town POV we'd now be guaranteed to have Bambi as our partner). Scum pair are more inclined to wait for 3 votes on the real VT and then go for the kill if both are online.

Regardless, I now Townread you enough to place a vote

after Bambi explains why she voted our pair

. I am genuinely sure now. Your thought process as described makes a lot of sense. I just want to see if there is actual logic hidden in Bambi's thought process that I missed. I've reread near the vote and don't understand it.

There is absolutely no way that Bambi failed to understand that I wanted her to answer this.

[Bambi Jay]

Ah Ration made his move, this'll be much easier.