Mini Normal 2211 || Summer Meet [Endgame]

[T3]

Sure, thanks.
I'm vt.
Egix might be last scum. Ivy being mason cuts down my poe to just Egix.

Can you explain your poe?

I townread everyone else to some degree.

[InsidiousLemons]

claim vt

claims so far + confirmed traitor are looking good to support the existence of a PT cop + mason pair, and i can believe the ivy crumbs. i really don't think they're scumbuds because as i've said, 1:3 is a pretty hefty ratio especially for such a weak-looking townside. the setup dunn linked was indeed run as a normal, so

if

there were 2 traitors they actually probably wouldn't know each other's identities. this further supports ivy+hem as masons rather than scumbuds, because for there to be 4 scum in a 12p i'd probably imagine 2 traitors (of which one would have to be either ivy or hem in a both-scum world)

i don't believe that VFP would think osuka is town because of setup speculation

they said "there's 1 reason i feel he could be town". that doesn't sound like a townread to me, it sounds like someone who has a doubt in their mind and thus thinks there are better options for the day's lim. i think you're confbiased.

I have information that makes me doubt both of the above [editor's note: VFP and hem] is town

would also like to hear what this is, especially in light of dunn reaffirming his vt claim

anya can you explain your thinking re: egix? i've had a really tough time reading that slot all game

and i'd still like an answer on this, i have no strong reason to believe egix is town but i don't believe i've seen a substantive scum case for him yet

[InsidiousLemons]

Final VC, Day Two

humaneatingmonkey (2): osuka, VFP
InsidiousLemons (1): Ivyeo
T3 (1): Egix96
VFP (1): Dunnstral

osuka (6) [HAMMER]: InsidiousLemons, Anya, Ivyeo, Umlaut, T3, humaneatingmonkey

With 11 alive it takes 6 to flip.

VFP is town.
Dunnstral is town.
LemonsI think was a townread from earlier I don't remember their play this game at all LOL.
Anya is town.
Also @MOD Ivyeo is counted twice in the eod votecount.
Umlaut was town.
hem is town.

Scum is between Ivy or Egix.

why did you leave out gerain? and what are you basing your townread of dunnstral on?

[T3]

Dunn was an early bugspray pushed and gerain hammered.

[InsidiousLemons]

bold of you to call 804 a push. it's true he never unvoted, but is that your only reason?

also gerain hammered after egix had already declared intent (1122). i really don't think that clears him at all. again, is this your only reason?

it's hard for me to believe that there's scum motivation behind townreading 2 of the most likely lims when there's likely only one scum left anyway, but your reasoning feels really arbitrary

[InsidiousLemons]

conversely, do you have any reason other than PoE for thinking egix is scum?

[InsidiousLemons]

okay let's have a look at who's left other than me

softcleared:

VFP

- claimed PT cop

Anya

- cleared via PT cop; second traitor unlikely imo

Ivyeo

- claimed mason

humaneatingmonkey

- claimed mason

so PoE leaves us with:

T3

- claimed vt

geraintm

- claimed vt

Dunnstral

- claimed vt

Egix96

- unclaimed

i've found most of these players difficult to read so it's hard to order them, but my attempt would be

geraintm > egix96 > dunnstral > t3

starting to lean away from dunnstral pretty significantly due to:

• the traitor flip meaning he had little reason to defend osuka if scum
  
• timing of his vt claim
  
• early adoption of the bugs wagon
  
• osuka's seeming attempt to convince me dunn was his partner

i neglected to properly consider the implications of the traitor flip on my dunn read when i voted him earlier today. egix as PoE is kinda starting to make more sense to me but i'd still like to know if anyone has hard evidence

UNVOTE:

[InsidiousLemons]

VOTE: geraintm

cook can you fill in the votecounts please

[T3]

bold of you to call 804 a push. it's true he never unvoted, but is that your only reason?

also gerain hammered after egix had already declared intent (1122). i really don't think that clears him at all. again, is this your only reason?

it's hard for me to believe that there's scum motivation behind townreading 2 of the most likely lims when there's likely only one scum left anyway, but your reasoning feels really arbitrary

Those are pretty much my only reason. I don't scumead egix otherthan that.

[humaneatingmonkey]

I will reconsider this game

[geraintm]

VOTE: geraintm

cook can you fill in the votecounts please

So you think that as scum i would in my first pust claim vanilla town?

[InsidiousLemons]

claiming right off the bat is a gambit like any other. you even admitted you've done it before, which weakens its effectiveness as a tell considerably. the fact you're pointing to it now as proof of your innocence doesn't help your case.

[Dunnstral]

Egix is a friendly neighbor, they targeted me last night

I don't really buy that this setup has 2 masons + friendly neighbor + pt cop for power, plus whatever town role stopped the night kill (I don't think it's a gambit because osuka was a traitor)

I think the interaction between rolestopper and pt cop is interesting because as a traitor osuka would not show up as guilty, and he can also protect one of his teammates from being investigated (And he was informed, so if pt cop is town he could have been informed of that role existing)

So with that angle... pt cop starts looking plausible, actually. I still suspect it and think we should eliminate it eventually, and on play I suspect vfp a bit, but I don't think it's mechanically the right play to eliminate him today

[humaneatingmonkey]

I will lend Lemons my vote before I do my re-read. VOTE: geraintm Do good with it.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Egix, who did you target N1?

[InsidiousLemons]

right now, i have nothing to offer the game except my claim. i find it incredibly hard/impossible to find scum day 1. i do try and get better as the game goes on though...

for someone who fell back on this defense repeatedly, does it strike anyone else as strange that the overwhelming majority of gerain's posts are from... D1? look at his ISO. he's literally posted 11 times since EoD1 and we're on D3 now. does that seem like someone "trying to get better as the game goes on"?

gerain, you've managed pretty consistently to fly under the radar so far, so i think it's past due that you get your fair share of scrutiny and pressure. the only real thing going for you seems to be that you hammered bugspray, which happened after it was very clear egix was going to do it anyway. got other reasons i should believe you're town?

[humaneatingmonkey]

I'm doing my re-read and since we're talking about it, I'll bring it up early:

#124 & #126 & #132 could be early evidence that Andante is PR or at least trying to give the impression that they're PR.

But counter-argument:
It's so painfully obvious that I found it immediately as soon as I started looking for it, and the scum team is probably on the lookout for shit like this early on. The fact that he hasn't been the NK on Night 2 makes this evidence against him being PR.

[humaneatingmonkey]

I don't think it's a gambit because osuka was a traitor

It's a gambit because everyone has claimed (Egix remains, but you say he's a friendly neighbor), and I would think someone would claim it if they were actually the person responsible. There's no benefit to not claiming here because if you stopped the NK, the scum will know. osuka can't accidentally stop an NK because his role card says it doesn't stop factional kills.

[humaneatingmonkey]

But counter-argument:
It's so painfully obvious that I found it immediately as soon as I started looking for it, and the scum team is probably on the lookout for shit like this early on. The fact that he hasn't been the NK on Night 2 makes this evidence against him being PR.

Like, even if they haven't spotted this one,

he softed PR Day 2

.

[humaneatingmonkey]

It's also obvious that the mafia already knows that osuka is their traitor because osuka would have been the NK at N1. Unless osuka lied about protecting Lemons and instead protected himself.

[humaneatingmonkey]

But that would have not worked because he can't stop mafia kills.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Town Mason
Town Mason
Town Friendly Neighbor
Town PT Cop
Town Vanilla Townie
Town Vanilla Townie
Town Vanilla Townie
Town Vanilla Townie
Mafia Informed Fruit Vendor
Mafia Informed Traitor Personal Rolestopper
Mafia Non-Traitor with Multi-tasking Night Action?
Mafia Traitor with Multi-tasking Night Action?

Would this be a balanced setup?

[InsidiousLemons]

VFP isn't the kill N1 because of the no-kill gambit. VFP isn't the kill N2 because they came under heavy fire D2, and what better way to lock in a PR as the lim than to leave them alive after they softclaim?

i disagree that osuka would

necessarily

have been the kill N1 for similar reasons, but rolestopper is a very strong PR and i suppose there are several signs that point to the mafia knowing osuka was their traitor (bugspray's rather obvious distancing being one of them)

p-edit why are we back to assuming 3.5 scum in a 12p

[InsidiousLemons]

i cant say with certainty that the above is what actually happened, but it seems plausible to me that VFP might be left alive in hopes of getting him limmed today, no?

[humaneatingmonkey]

are you not considering it? why not? i dont think you would ignore the existence of a flipped Traitor, especially if you believe that all the claimed town PRs.