Newbie 2066: Gelato 2 -- End!

[sang froid]

I don't like wagoning on Day 1,

it gives me zero information

and doesn't give me much room to pressure somebody else if they start pinging me. I like to let others wagon since it gives me more info on the game state. E-3, E-2, and E-1 votes are extremely telling and are what I'm going to be basing a lot of my reads on.

How does it not provide information? Surely it gives you information of a different sort, and how does it stop you pressuring anyone if you want to change your vote? You’re not beholden to keep voting on a wagon just because you did once?

And additionally, how is vanity voting someone (which is exerting very little pressure and is therefore unlikely to provide much information alone) better than helping put the squeeze on someone?

Also, why do you think E-3, E-2, and E-1 votes are especially important? Why are those more indicative of alignment fypov than wagon leaders or hammer votes?

Me putting my vote on a wagon means one less person is putting their vote on a wagon. When people vote, they're making their reads, suspicions, and alliances clear. I want to know who wants to put the most pressure on an E-2 wagon, and I literally cannot figure that out if I do it myself.

My "vanity" vote isn't a vanity vote at all if anyone else agrees with it. As much as you want

me

to vote with you,

you

are completely welcome to vote with me as well. You said you believed Jumble was scummy as well, so why focus on pressuring just Rock? It's not like I gave him a free pass, I've had plenty to say about him so far.

I think E-x votes are more AI because that's exactly where scum want to put their votes. Newbscum are terrified of looking suspicious, most aren't brave enough to lead a wagon they know will flip green, and doubly so for hammering a player they know will flip green. Middle votes generally just look and feel safe.

You're playing from an experienced perspective but you're forgetting this game style is specifically for people with little experience.

As for me being aggressive— yeah, sure, that’s not inaccurate but it’s more because I’m not particularly worried about getting limmed today and less about any level of confusion on my part. I was expecting to potentially pick up votes for my entrance because it was artificially scummy but I have every faith in myself to demonstrate that I’m town vía how I approach the game

You have three votes on you. I don't think your strat is working.

Right, but like, that’s applicable to every slot in the game, and the more people who refuse to get involved in wagons the harder it becomes to parse the game overall. Like yes, it’s useful to *you* to gain information playing like that, but it’s also useful for every other town player in the game for you to take such stances and positions on wagons to try and see what’s going on in your head.

And actually what I said was that the initial votes were scummy but that I don’t think there’s more than 1 scum in the two of them, which actually makes me lean jumble as town rn, in consequence of my rockhopper read. And there’s more to wha makes a vanity — yes, you’re voting there, but you’re not really like, canvassing much for votes or trying to make your case on why jumble is the best wagon here, you’re just sort of plopping a vote down and hoping it does something, instead of taking active measures to ensure it does. My argument is that your vote does more for the game by adding some danger through putting scum at e-1 and getting a claim

And ehhh, there’s something in the whole experienced perspective thing but that’s also just a bit too reductive? Think there’s something to the idea that newbscum can be reluctant but there’s daychat and SEs who can coach them, and then there’s newbies on this site who aren’t newbies to mafia, and then there’s just bold newbies. If it was as simple as “middle votes are scummier” the game would be a lot easier

~~

Also, seems to be working fine to me? My preferred wagon just became the leading one and I’m planning to get rock to e-1 by the end of irl today. Votes on me are kind of immaterial and especially as if I’m right then scum!rock doesn’t exactly have any incentive t unvote me lol

[sang froid]

Why exactly did you decide to enter like that?

This question alone gives me newbie town vibes. But at the same time, it conflicts with your earlier posts.

My only guess is that they were checking for reactions. That's why they're scum reading you and Jumble.

No, I asked because he's aware that there's always at least a couple of town who would read at the most surface level. I don't think the wagon with me/Jumble warrants a strong reaction with that kind of uncertainty, especially in a newbie game. That entrance does work better as PR bait because newbie PR reactions are much more noticeable, meaning there can be a significant amount of upside. The truth of his reasoning for why the downside outweighs the upside contradicts itself, leaving just a plain anti-town entrance, justifying the wagon on him.

It's more likely a part of his scum agenda because he buries wifom with more wifom while tunneling down on me/Jumbo for being

surface level

.
Idk why this kind of play would come from experienced town.

Point is that scum want to sheep onto a viable wagon to give the illusion of scumhunting. And like, how is certainty relevant? I have a model of what I expect from scum, which is that they want to look town. How do you look town? You try to look like you’re looking for scum. But then there’s a level missing which is that scum often just think “oh yeah, that looks bad, I can push that” and hop onto the thing. Now *sometimes* (more than is wonderful) town do that too but town are more likely to think about *why* person x did the thing and the answer of “oh scum are just trying to WIFOM or look too scummy to be scum” is rarely a satisfying answer because, again, a lot of the time it’s not worth the trouble of the risk of getting limmed

For me to decide that’s my best option as scum, I have to figure that (1) I’ll get useful info on who’s a PR (2) I’ll be able to fend off the negative attention it’s liable to bring easily and (3) I probably have to think that I won’t be able to find the PRs without it/that it will be significantly more difficult. None of those things really sync with what I’ve done other than admittedly I don’t generally worry about getting limmed on D1.

So that leaves me needing to think I’ll get useful info which — maybe! But this doesn’t fit with... the fact that newbie PRs are like fairly notoriously not great at hiding? So it makes it unnecessary for me to do as scum.

Feel like you’re having to try to fit the facts into the narrative you want instead of looking for the explanation that makes most sense which is that I’m town who felt like doing that and then leveraged the reactions into reads. Whereas your conjecture requires me being scum doing some cost/benefit analysis of how likely I am to get PRs outed vs whether that even helps me a lot considering general ease vs whether it’s worth looking scummy intentionally just for WIFOM vs how easily I can dismiss negative attention and it’s just... like nah fam

Also, I’m not tunnelled? Yes I want you dead but I’m not like certain you’re scum, that’s just my best guess, which I can’t do much more than

[Vaxkiller]

Do you have a reads list sang?

[Clasko]

Sorry everyone. Sunday was a busy day for me, but I'm here now and ready to play.

Just going through the thread rn - will post very soon.

[T3]

Current reads, most are gut.
Me: me
Town: sang, Vax
Lean town: Roden, gif
Null: Clasko
Scum: Rockhopper
If I forgot people then I probably don't have a read on you yet. Jumble idk yet.

[Clasko]

Okay, I intend to keep my vote on Rock (non-RVS now). He's probably neutral for me - he hasn't done anything particularly AI, but if he flips red, then me, Sang & T3 will most likely flip green which helps for the following day phases.

And if he flips green then I'll cross that bridge when I come to it.

Not much has pinged me when I looked back at the thread just now, but:

VOTE: sang froi
Works better as PR bait imo

yeah seriously wth
VOTE: sang froi

This post from Jumble just sheeps Rock's previous post IMO but could just be a knee-jerk reaction.

[Clasko]

Small reads list, which I'll elaborate on later as I have to leave for a couple of hours.

Roden
Sang

=====
T3
Rock
Vax/Guy
Johnny
=====

Jumble

[Vaxkiller]

Why are Guy and I next to each other?

[sang froid]

Do you have a reads list sang?

its broadly the same as last time only I think now I TR jumble, partly off his own posting partly because I still think rock has good equity

also T3 has gone up so it's like

roden, clasko, you, jumble

T3
--townline
GIF, Johnny
--scumline
rockhopper

but I will say that one of my TRs is one I have misgivings with that might flip to a SR but I want to keep that under wraps for a bit while I see what the slot does as game goes on

[sang froid]

yo T3, what in GiF's posting has pinged you as town?

[Clasko]

but I will say that one of my TRs is one I have misgivings with that might flip to a SR but I want to keep that under wraps for a bit while I see what the slot does as game goes on

I'm pretty sure it's me, given my recent posts, but that's okay.

Sang is a town lean. His aggressive play isn't what I see scum doing, and his argument with Rock helped progress the gamestate IMO. Even if anyone scumreads Sang, which I am not currently, you have to acknowledge their posts have been helping the town.

Rockhopper I've talked about already but I will add that I doubt Rock/Sang are W v. W as this doesn't look like a false narrative that scum present to the town.

Why are Guy and I next to each other?

You and Guy have very similar ISO's that contain one-liners and maybe the odd vote. There isn't much between you IMO. Prior to your V/LA you left two naked votes and GIF's posts have been lacking in information outside of his town reads; this is why I both have you in my neutral bracket and both together. As time goes on, I'm sure this will change.
Do you believe you shouldn't be ranked together, out of curiosity?

Roden is my biggest town read right now. I can see clarity and reasoning with his opinions of posts, other people, and the gamestate. I feel if you ask Roden a question, you'll get an above-and-beyond answer. His vote on Jumble, for example, was well-articulated and far from a naked vote.

T3 is a wild card for me. I've noted his placement of me to E-1 earlier even if it was a jokey vote but I've liked the latter half of his posts, particularly 78, and in general he just seems to be asking good questions and gaining information. Neutral but knocking on the door of town lean I'd say.

Jumble I struggled to place because I feel for the guy, but I'm sticking by my opinion that #62 pinged me and it felt like he was latching on to Rock here. I hope they stay in the game until the end, because it won't be the same without them.

---

I'll answer any questions if anyone has them.

[T3]

btw I have both T3 and rockhopper as town

This mainly pinged me as town.

[GuyInFreezer]

I hope you’re not townreading me just for townreading you lol

[GuyInFreezer]

Sry, you guys deserve better. I should have marked myself VLA over the weekend. Some weeks are better than others, but last week end was really busy. But I'm here now on the weekdays!

Btw I have no excuses.
One liners will be all y’all get from me unless I feel a big need to post longer which is basically almost never.
Why drag it out in paragraphs when I can say two lines to say what I need amirite

With that said now I have pretty strong 5 townreads. I can prob really solve this in 4 days.

[Roden]

I don't like wagoning on Day 1,

it gives me zero information

and doesn't give me much room to pressure somebody else if they start pinging me. I like to let others wagon since it gives me more info on the game state. E-3, E-2, and E-1 votes are extremely telling and are what I'm going to be basing a lot of my reads on.

How does it not provide information? Surely it gives you information of a different sort, and how does it stop you pressuring anyone if you want to change your vote? You’re not beholden to keep voting on a wagon just because you did once?

And additionally, how is vanity voting someone (which is exerting very little pressure and is therefore unlikely to provide much information alone) better than helping put the squeeze on someone?

Also, why do you think E-3, E-2, and E-1 votes are especially important? Why are those more indicative of alignment fypov than wagon leaders or hammer votes?

Me putting my vote on a wagon means one less person is putting their vote on a wagon. When people vote, they're making their reads, suspicions, and alliances clear. I want to know who wants to put the most pressure on an E-2 wagon, and I literally cannot figure that out if I do it myself.

My "vanity" vote isn't a vanity vote at all if anyone else agrees with it. As much as you want

me

to vote with you,

you

are completely welcome to vote with me as well. You said you believed Jumble was scummy as well, so why focus on pressuring just Rock? It's not like I gave him a free pass, I've had plenty to say about him so far.

I think E-x votes are more AI because that's exactly where scum want to put their votes. Newbscum are terrified of looking suspicious, most aren't brave enough to lead a wagon they know will flip green, and doubly so for hammering a player they know will flip green. Middle votes generally just look and feel safe.

You're playing from an experienced perspective but you're forgetting this game style is specifically for people with little experience.

As for me being aggressive— yeah, sure, that’s not inaccurate but it’s more because I’m not particularly worried about getting limmed today and less about any level of confusion on my part. I was expecting to potentially pick up votes for my entrance because it was artificially scummy but I have every faith in myself to demonstrate that I’m town vía how I approach the game

You have three votes on you. I don't think your strat is working.

Right, but like, that’s applicable to every slot in the game, and the more people who refuse to get involved in wagons the harder it becomes to parse the game overall. Like yes, it’s useful to *you* to gain information playing like that, but it’s also useful for every other town player in the game for you to take such stances and positions on wagons to try and see what’s going on in your head.

And actually what I said was that the initial votes were scummy but that I don’t think there’s more than 1 scum in the two of them, which actually makes me lean jumble as town rn, in consequence of my rockhopper read. And there’s more to wha makes a vanity — yes, you’re voting there, but you’re not really like, canvassing much for votes or trying to make your case on why jumble is the best wagon here, you’re just sort of plopping a vote down and hoping it does something, instead of taking active measures to ensure it does. My argument is that your vote does more for the game by adding some danger through putting scum at e-1 and getting a claim

And ehhh, there’s something in the whole experienced perspective thing but that’s also just a bit too reductive? Think there’s something to the idea that newbscum can be reluctant but there’s daychat and SEs who can coach them, and then there’s newbies on this site who aren’t newbies to mafia, and then there’s just bold newbies. If it was as simple as “middle votes are scummier” the game would be a lot easier

~~

Also, seems to be working fine to me? My preferred wagon just became the leading one and I’m planning to get rock to e-1 by the end of irl today. Votes on me are kind of immaterial and especially as if I’m right then scum!rock doesn’t exactly have any incentive t unvote me lol

I understand it's kinda selfish of me to not vote someone but then expect others to, but I am trying to alleviate it by at least explaining why I think said person still deserves a vote while wanting to know who else agrees/disagrees with the sentiment. And I think I have learned something: a lot of people seem to be scum reading Rock now, but he's still only at E-2. It makes me think scum don't want this game state to progress, if nothing else.

Part of my reasoning for my vote was to see if anyone would follow it or agree with me. I'm seeing a couple scum reads for Jumble but no votes. Rock didn't hop over either, so he does seem invested in tunneling you.

I can understand if you don't buy into middle votes being scum indicative. It's just something I've noticed in Mafia/Werewolf style games in general. Regardless no one else seems to want to be the E-1 vote anyway, so,

VOTE: Rockhopper

If nothing else, this should advance the game. Let's see if scum panics.

[Roden]

I also agree with Clasko that Sang vs Rock isn't scum vs scum. It just doesn't make any sense to do in a slow game.

[Roden]

Sry, you guys deserve better. I should have marked myself VLA over the weekend. Some weeks are better than others, but last week end was really busy. But I'm here now on the weekdays!

Btw I have no excuses.
One liners will be all y’all get from me unless I feel a big need to post longer which is basically almost never.
Why drag it out in paragraphs when I can say two lines to say what I need amirite

With that said now I have pretty strong 5 townreads. I can prob really solve this in 4 days.

It would help everyone get a better read on you if you did drag it out since you have no detailed reads and note vote on the table. You're just coasting right now.

[Roden]

*no vote on the table, sorry

[T3]

I hope you’re not townreading me just for townreading you lol

Nah, it was the take about me and rockhopper as a pair.

[NotAJumbleOfNumbers]

Sry, you guys deserve better. I should have marked myself VLA over the weekend. Some weeks are better than others, but last week end was really busy. But I'm here now on the weekdays!

Btw I have no excuses.
One liners will be all y’all get from me unless I feel a big need to post longer which is basically almost never.
Why drag it out in paragraphs when I can say two lines to say what I need amirite

With that said now I have pretty strong 5 townreads. I can prob really solve this in 4 days.

This pings me as possibly scummy. The first part I can get as like a meta thing, but why say you have a bunch of townreads and then not elaborate on it at all? I just don't get it.

[NotAJumbleOfNumbers]

Also, how in the world do you get five strong townreads in six pages?!?!?!? This feels like 100% coast material, like what Roden said.

[NotAJumbleOfNumbers]

And uh UNVOTE: because we're out of RVS and also because I don't think we should be taking out our votes when it's still a bit early and one of the players still hasn't posted yet. Now with that being said I'm still not feeling great about sang (still do not feel good about that PR RVS post), Rockhopper (mostly a gut read, he does feel inconsistent at times), or GuyInFreezer (see above posts.) I'm pointing fingers at all of them.

[fferyllt]

e vai!

[fferyllt]

e vai!

[fferyllt]

allez