Newbie 2066: Gelato 2 -- End!

[GuyInFreezer]

pagetop

[GuyInFreezer]

Though, T3 does have a very distinct meta; my only other completed game also had T3 in it and he got caught through meta on page 1. GIF's statement that T3 is an oddball adds up with what I know. He makes bizarre plays as scum and distances himself hard from a scum buddy, and tends to sacrifice himself Day 1 too.

Please do not "meta" with sample size of only one game.

[GuyInFreezer]

GIF occasionally has decent reads

My reads are pretty accurate most of the time actually.

vax's attempts to spin 116 as being a townslip or as being strongly +town hits me as wrong, as does the assertion that he's obvtown from a page ago

There are plenty of reasons to scumread Vax but this ain't it. Former is actually more of a townleaning move and randomly claming obvtown was a fad that existed (still exists? I dunno I took a long break and just came back) back then.

[Roden]

Though, T3 does have a very distinct meta; my only other completed game also had T3 in it and he got caught through meta on page 1. GIF's statement that T3 is an oddball adds up with what I know. He makes bizarre plays as scum and distances himself hard from a scum buddy, and tends to sacrifice himself Day 1 too.

Please do not "meta" with sample size of only one game.

Sorry, I should've clarified that four other games were analyzed to get the scum read on T3 in that game, so it's really a sample size of five. It's what convinced me to look for his tells here, since I was skeptical until it turned out that meta read easily won the game for town.

What locked T3 as town for you?

GIF occasionally has decent reads

My reads are pretty accurate most of the time actually.

vax's attempts to spin 116 as being a townslip or as being strongly +town hits me as wrong, as does the assertion that he's obvtown from a page ago

There are plenty of reasons to scumread Vax but this ain't it. Former is actually more of a townleaning move and randomly claming obvtown was a fad that existed (still exists? I dunno I took a long break and just came back) back then.

I actually kinda agree with Sang here. Vax sounds frustrated that his town slip wasn't convincing enough. I don't think town would react that way, but scum likely would.

[GuyInFreezer]

What locked T3 as town for you?

Plays too weird to be scum + 4D chess.
Some reads are just this simple.

I don't think town would react that way

Oh some defo do. See, there is this fancy thing called "town bias." Sometimes town fails to mentally grasp the concept that some things are done as scum/not as town because the thought that they are town is so drilled in their head. It's like a confirmation bias, but a bias that comes because they're town thus they cannot be scum. I think the way he reacted is kinda showing this. Now I said "townlean" because yes scum can obviously do this so it's not a strong tell. Arguably it's kinda hard to explain this because it's tied to my perception of ppl's emotion when making a post and if ppl go "I disagree" I can't really do jack about that. tl;dr the act itself sucks but I don't think the way he did it is scummy.

[GuyInFreezer]

So yeah my T3 read is really for his posts in general.
I just don't think scum plays the way he does.

[NotAJumbleOfNumbers]

Since you haven't voted yet, what's your opinion on the current game state? Between Vax, GIF, and Rock, who's coming off most town to you?

I'll just post my entire readslist as of now:
(Town)

Roden

GIF / Clasko

Sang
Johnny

T3
Rockhopper

Vaxkiller

(Mafia)

I'm going to be focusing on the three you wanted me to talk about:

We start from the top: GIF. I was kinda worried that their confident push for 5 TRs was just a ploy to sneak through the other scum and immediately back down, but they seem to have held on their reads, with rather great explanations to boot. And no, it's not because they townread me.

Next up: Rockhopper. I just don't see a lot of proaction in this slot. There are too many questions and not enough answers and reads. On top of that, there doesn't seem to be a lot of direction in their posts. Feels like a "trying to find something to criticize for the sake of it" kind of play.

@Rockhopper

Do you have a readslist? Could you explain some of the choices?

And finally: Vaxkiller. He was already pretty bad to begin with (see #243) but his insistence on the only kind of maybe towny thing he did (#116) being towny only dug him deeper in my mind. Not so much that he tried to defend it, but he was all "c'mon everyone knows this is obvtown" when it clearly wasn't. Look, not everything you say will look towny. You just have to make the towny parts outshine the scummy parts to look towny as a whole.

VOTE: Vaxkiller E-1

[Rockhopper]

@Rockhopper

Do you have a readslist? Could you explain some of the choices?

Jumble

GIF

T3

Johnny
sang

Roden:

Spoiler:

Personal read. My wagon gained too much traction too quickly with no resistance, so I'm fairly certain there was scum on it. I don't like how he insisted on pushing it till the end without responding to my defense/reasoning even though the case was surface level af ("rock scum cus he vote sang for being anti-town, also joke pocket sus"). I don't like how "tried to wagon Clasko" was part of his case since that was obviously rvs. I also don't like how he wanted to heavily reevaluate Jumble in case I flipped town, since that sounds like lining up miselims (fmpov mostly). Vaxkiller's jump from null to highest scumread simply from GIF stating their iso sucked gives him good partner equity since bussing is kinda the meta for scum rn and Vaxkiller's reluctance to respond properly about Radon/Clask adds to this. All of Radon's reads apart from the metaread on T3 seem surface level/consensus, so there isn't much reason for me to TR him.

Vaxkiller

Clasko

Gun to head solve: Roden, Vaxk

[sang froid]

My reads are pretty accurate most of the time actually.

When you bother to actually read the game and don’t just sheep, I guess

[sang froid]

Hm, turns out I’m still more irritated with GiF than I thought I would be

I’ll try to forget about it though

[sang froid]

Level with me jumble, are you scum? You’re increasingly beginning to feel like scum

[Roden]

What locked T3 as town for you?

Plays too weird to be scum + 4D chess.
Some reads are just this simple.

I don't think town would react that way

Oh some defo do. See, there is this fancy thing called "town bias." Sometimes town fails to mentally grasp the concept that some things are done as scum/not as town because the thought that they are town is so drilled in their head. It's like a confirmation bias, but a bias that comes because they're town thus they cannot be scum. I think the way he reacted is kinda showing this. Now I said "townlean" because yes scum can obviously do this so it's not a strong tell. Arguably it's kinda hard to explain this because it's tied to my perception of ppl's emotion when making a post and if ppl go "I disagree" I can't really do jack about that. tl;dr the act itself sucks but I don't think the way he did it is scummy.

Should Vax actually be at E-1 then if you think that was a townlean response...? I think keeping on the pressure here is a good idea regardless so I won't unvote, but that kinda changes things.

Since you haven't voted yet, what's your opinion on the current game state? Between Vax, GIF, and Rock, who's coming off most town to you?

I'll just post my entire readslist as of now:
(Town)

Roden

GIF / Clasko

Sang
Johnny

T3
Rockhopper

Vaxkiller

(Mafia)

I'm going to be focusing on the three you wanted me to talk about:

We start from the top: GIF. I was kinda worried that their confident push for 5 TRs was just a ploy to sneak through the other scum and immediately back down, but they seem to have held on their reads, with rather great explanations to boot. And no, it's not because they townread me.

Next up: Rockhopper. I just don't see a lot of proaction in this slot. There are too many questions and not enough answers and reads. On top of that, there doesn't seem to be a lot of direction in their posts. Feels like a "trying to find something to criticize for the sake of it" kind of play.

@Rockhopper

Do you have a readslist? Could you explain some of the choices?

And finally: Vaxkiller. He was already pretty bad to begin with (see #243) but his insistence on the only kind of maybe towny thing he did (#116) being towny only dug him deeper in my mind. Not so much that he tried to defend it, but he was all "c'mon everyone knows this is obvtown" when it clearly wasn't. Look, not everything you say will look towny. You just have to make the towny parts outshine the scummy parts to look towny as a whole.

VOTE: Vaxkiller E-1

I like these reads tbh, you're bringing up your own points and it's pretty consistent with your ISO. I get your scum lean on T3, though I'm surprised Sang is currently null. Did something ping you?

[Clasko]

Hello!

- Vax: I used the word "angered" earlier and honestly looking back I regret that and I was wrong to make that assumption.

---

I do disagree with Roden about the T3/Vax pairing. If T3/Vax are a scum pair here, I believe T3 has no reason to not distance given Vax's ISO.

---

Vax himself... IDK. I can see him being scum with Johnny (I guess?) to explain his lack of effort (in a sort of... giving in/waiting for Johnny sort of way?) but I feel scum!Vax, or any scum, tries harder than this. Whilst I don't necessarily buy that his townslip was intentional, at least T3 believes it, so it could be true ig, but this still feels like an easy elim rn.

Roden I'm still comfortable with. I think his play is too open to be scum here. He's given lots of reads and thoughts to look back on if he flips red.

The problem I have with GIF is that whilst I think his thought process is good, it's kind of an easy take to say that Vax is low effort and his read on T3 is flimsy given his considered read on myself yet somehow has the audacity to lock him in. I also think that using "I'm lazy - it's part of my game" (not the exact quote, but along those lines) tells me he's using his own meta to justify a backseat play near the beginning of the game which pings me as scummy. My vote stays there for now.

Rock I feel is coming into his own after a, not necessarily shaky start but an underwhelming one. I said before I thought the way he posted under pressure was good but not ironclad as ofc scum!Rock has an incentive to act calm. I'll have to see more to justify a TR.

I'm seeing a different Sang now to the one that opened up the game. I still maintain his strong opening justifies my town lean but I currently have not much to add here.

but I will say that one of my TRs is one I have misgivings with that might flip to a SR but I want to keep that under wraps for a bit while I see what the slot does as game goes on

Are you still keeping this under wraps?

Jumble I'm so up and down on. Dropping Vax as a TR between posts 213 and 243 pinged me. My case for them being town is flimsy (some good posts that read tonally well, being open with reads) but ultimately they're probably my next elim after GIF as I feel there's a lack of consistency with that slot and 243 could be a way to justify re-opening an easy vax elim so that he isn't immediately seen as jumping from a TR to a SR so blatantly.

T3 I think I would have preferred as town if they didn't just give a readlist based on gut rather than explaining their reads, but their posts haven't overly pinged me as scummy. Their stance on Vax is an interesting one.

Johnny I obviously have no opinion on. Waiting for that slot to speak is irking me because I can't get as full a picture as I would like.

[Clasko]

I still think sang's scum, but it's better to scumhunt outside rather than tunnel especially when he's pretty much consensus town, don't you agree?

sang

Also I forgot to add to my above post, can you explain your shift from sang as scum to neutral on your reads list?

[Roden]

@Rockhopper

Do you have a readslist? Could you explain some of the choices?

Jumble

GIF

T3

Johnny
sang

Roden:

Spoiler:

Personal read. My wagon gained too much traction too quickly with no resistance, so I'm fairly certain there was scum on it. I don't like how he insisted on pushing it till the end without responding to my defense/reasoning even though the case was surface level af ("rock scum cus he vote sang for being anti-town, also joke pocket sus"). I don't like how "tried to wagon Clasko" was part of his case since that was obviously rvs. I also don't like how he wanted to heavily reevaluate Jumble in case I flipped town, since that sounds like lining up miselims (fmpov mostly). Vaxkiller's jump from null to highest scumread simply from GIF stating their iso sucked gives him good partner equity since bussing is kinda the meta for scum rn and Vaxkiller's reluctance to respond properly about Radon/Clask adds to this. All of Radon's reads apart from the metaread on T3 seem surface level/consensus, so there isn't much reason for me to TR him.

Vaxkiller

Clasko

Gun to head solve: Roden, Vaxk

Well, I was waiting until you'd try to make a case against me but uh, I wasn't expecting this. I don't really know how to address a Vax/me pairing because I honestly don't know how you came to that conclusion. If you want to invest in this case Day 2 then I'd be more than fine to meet you on that. I can only guess you're claiming it because my assumed hero solve at this point would probably be Vax/you (it actually isn't) and you want the distancing points. Because I honestly believe you'd have a more compelling case pairing me up with literally anyone else.

Gonna address your one and only personal read:

-Your wagon didn't "gain too much traction without resistance." It was in counter to Sang's, and both your wagons died around the same time. Mainly because I took my vote off of you

twice

and acknowledged I was possibly tunneling. Vax notably was voting

with

you against Sang.

-I'm not pushing you "till the end", I'm still currently pushing you. And it's weird that you're lying and saying I haven't responded to your defense or reasoning when I explicitly had to make a post asking you to do exactly that. A good portion of my ISO is just me responding to you and making reads that involve you. I don't know how you can claim that I've in any way ignored you without thinking that sounds even a little bit scummy to lie about. It's so easy to go back and fact check my dude.

-The case wasn't surface level, and those weren't the only things I or multiple other people brought up. You had four votes on you and several people laying out their reads and reasonings for you, but all you can remember is post 160?

-The potential Jumble reevaluation is less likely now to be fair, since I feel like I've got a better read on him now than I did a few days ago. But I'll give you that, I can understand why you think it looks like a Day 2 miselim set up, it wasn't meant to be though.

-Vax isn't my highest scum read, he's about tied with you. You and GIF both go up to a town lean though if Vax flips red. The reason I put my vote on Vax has a lot more to do with than them having a shitty ISO, and this is something I've already stated several times. Why do you keep lying about very basic things that take five minutes to fact check?

-Why would I bus Vax if GIF gave three options for his scum read? In fact, why do I not just jump on GIF since nobody trusted him and he already had two votes? Nobody had jumped on any of his reads yet, and I was only the second vote on Vax. I voted with you here in fact. What makes even less sense is that I'm the one who pushed the most for GIF to explain his reads! Are you saying I saw a shady looking town player scum read my partner with no explanation, practically begged him to explain his reads when he kept saying no, then unnecessarily bussed my partner? I just don't understand how this makes sense to you.

-What about my reads are surface level or general consensus...? I've been pretty open with my thought process the entire time and I've tried to reply to people and update my stances on every page. I've been giving reads even on days where the thread's inactive. A general consensus didn't even

exist

for a little while until I started asking for more people to start giving their thoughts on the game.

-Why is Sang null on your reads list now? You said multiple times that you believed they were scum, but now you've dropped that for a Vax/Roden pairing? What's the thought process behind this, because that wasn't gradual at all.

[Roden]

Interesting to see Clasko and I diverge a lot a more from our earlier shared mind set, but I don't see anything wrong with his updated reads. I actually agree that Vax feels like an easy elim, but I think part of it is that it's just not hard to justify a vote on them. Vax isn't doing a lot to gain town points, only giving us a "town slip" that doesn't really guarantee much of anything.

[Roden]

Side tangent thing before I go to bed because Jumble seems to be pretty controversially read.

Sang and Clasko are scum reading Jumble. Rock, GIF, and I are town reading Jumble. T3 and Vax appear to have Jumble as null. Not sure what to make of this or if it even means anything, but it's interesting that none of my town reads are reading Jumble as town.

Sang also surprisingly dropped down to null for a few people now. I feel like I'm missing something.

[sang froid]

it's because I haven't been so present the last few days since I repped in, it's very normal

[sang froid]

Are you still keeping this under wraps?

spent a bit considering whether I should answer this, but actually yeah, fuck it, I'll out it: it's Roden

it's a gut thing and I'm not really sure I want to follow it through with a hard push today bc my gut has mixed success when I feel ambivalent, pushing into decent when I feel very strongly about something

but I think that something feels off there, although I can't quite put my finger on what

maybe that I feel like he's taking quite uncontroversial opinions consistently and is making it very clear why he thinks what he thinks etc

the most recent thing that bothered me is the "why are you lying about things that can be confirmed?" which is something that I think often comes from scum when they think town has said something that's like, ambiguously true or in a grey area, and that can be pushed as falsehood

I also found the back-and-forth with me over voting rock weird, I think bc the initial insistence on independence and doing his own thing then came round to getting on board? it almost felt like someone who *wanted* to be persuaded to me, and the fact that he's now also joined on vax is... disquieting

on the other hand, I struggle to read sincere newbie townplay as distinct from newbie scum play (like newbies trying very hard to make sure they're understood and being super logical is something that's more common than in more experienced players I think, who are more likely to act and then explain later)

I think I'm still leaning on a vax lim today, bc I think if vax is scum then that looks good for Roden and this is most likely paranoia from the day taking a while. if vax town then I'll be looking at Roden more closely while I read overnight

[GuyInFreezer]

nd his read on T3 is flimsy given his considered read on myself yet somehow has the audacity to lock him in

you mad bro

[NotAJumbleOfNumbers]

I get your scum lean on T3, though I'm surprised Sang is currently null. Did something ping you?

If it weren't for that confusing opening then I'd probably townlean him but said opening has just muddied the waters a bit for me.

[NotAJumbleOfNumbers]

on the other hand, I struggle to read sincere newbie townplay as distinct from newbie scum play (like newbies trying very hard to make sure they're understood and being super logical is something that's more common than in more experienced players I think, who are more likely to act and then explain later)

We don't actually know if they're a newbie to Mafia or not, given that they never answered the RQS questions. It couldn’t hurt to ask.

@Roden

What is your Mafia experience?

[Rockhopper]

@Rockhopper

Do you have a readslist? Could you explain some of the choices?

Jumble

GIF

T3

Johnny
sang

Roden:

Spoiler:

Personal read. My wagon gained too much traction too quickly with no resistance, so I'm fairly certain there was scum on it. I don't like how he insisted on pushing it till the end without responding to my defense/reasoning even though the case was surface level af ("rock scum cus he vote sang for being anti-town, also joke pocket sus"). I don't like how "tried to wagon Clasko" was part of his case since that was obviously rvs. I also don't like how he wanted to heavily reevaluate Jumble in case I flipped town, since that sounds like lining up miselims (fmpov mostly). Vaxkiller's jump from null to highest scumread simply from GIF stating their iso sucked gives him good partner equity since bussing is kinda the meta for scum rn and Vaxkiller's reluctance to respond properly about Radon/Clask adds to this. All of Radon's reads apart from the metaread on T3 seem surface level/consensus, so there isn't much reason for me to TR him.

Vaxkiller

Clasko

Gun to head solve: Roden, Vaxk

Well, I was waiting until you'd try to make a case against me but uh, I wasn't expecting this. I don't really know how to address a Vax/me pairing because I honestly don't know how you came to that conclusion. If you want to invest in this case Day 2 then I'd be more than fine to meet you on that. I can only guess you're claiming it because my assumed hero solve at this point would probably be Vax/you (it actually isn't) and you want the distancing points. Because I honestly believe you'd have a more compelling case pairing me up with literally anyone else.

There's no reason for scum!Vax to be so laid back unless his partner is fairly (pro)active. And like I said, your insistence on eliminating me based on bad reasoning and your weird hop on Vaxk make you seem like the most likely choice for his partner. Why would I assume that when you literally say the opposite in 242

Gonna address your one and only personal read:

-Your wagon didn't "gain too much traction without resistance." It was in counter to Sang's, and both your wagons died around the same time. Mainly because I took my vote off of you

twice

and acknowledged I was possibly tunneling. Vax notably was voting

with

you against Sang.

Given that I tr Jumble and Vax's vote was possibly rvs, I maintain that there's a good chance scum was on my wagon. Sang's wagon was feeble to begin with, and mine reached E-1 when it died (150)

-I'm not pushing you "till the end", I'm still currently pushing you. And it's weird that you're lying and saying I haven't responded to your defense or reasoning when I explicitly had to make a post asking you to do exactly that. A good portion of my ISO is just me responding to you and making reads that involve you. I don't know how you can claim that I've in any way ignored you without thinking that sounds even a little bit scummy to lie about. It's so easy to go back and fact check my dude.
-The case wasn't surface level, and those weren't the only things I or multiple other people brought up. You had four votes on you and several people laying out their reads and reasonings for you, but all you can remember is post 160?

Till the end of Day 1, like you said. And what did I lie about? You maintained your scumread on me and never commented on what I said in 110.
As far as I can tell, the reasons were: 1) that I was opportunistic, which is a weird buzzword to throw around because you could say the same for any vote anybody makes even if it came from a town perspective (which is the case here), 2) that my vote was based on flimsy reasoning, which I already disagreed with in 110, 3) that the joke about clearing each other for having the same tastes didn't read right, to which I say I'm awkward in general, and 4) that it's scummy to think an experienced scum player would blatantly post PR bait like that, which kinda contradicts itself.

-The potential Jumble reevaluation is less likely now to be fair, since I feel like I've got a better read on him now than I did a few days ago. But I'll give you that, I can understand why you think it looks like a Day 2 miselim set up, it wasn't meant to be though.

-Vax isn't my highest scum read, he's about tied with you. You and GIF both go up to a town lean though if Vax flips red. The reason I put my vote on Vax has a lot more to do with than them having a shitty ISO, and this is something I've already stated several times. Why do you keep lying about very basic things that take five minutes to fact check?

-Why would I bus Vax if GIF gave three options for his scum read? In fact, why do I not just jump on GIF since nobody trusted him and he already had two votes? Nobody had jumped on any of his reads yet, and I was only the second vote on Vax. I voted with you here in fact. What makes even less sense is that I'm the one who pushed the most for GIF to explain his reads! Are you saying I saw a shady looking town player scum read my partner with no explanation, practically begged him to explain his reads when he kept saying no, then unnecessarily bussed my partner? I just don't understand how this makes sense to you.

Whatever your reasons maybe, the fact that Vax did shift to being your scumread after GIF's statement doesn't sit well with me. You said it yourself that it was hard to discern scum!Vax's partner which is all the more incentive for you to bus at first chance, assuming you are his partner. And GIF was bound to explain his reads anyway (5 day solve or whatever), regardless of whether it was you or anyone else who would push him to do so. As for why Vax given the 2 other options? You expressed a strong townread on Clasko already and Johnny is yet to post. GIF's reasoning was good enough to keep him alive for today, and pushing him before wouldn't have made any sense.

[GuyInFreezer]

And GIF was bound to explain his reads anyway (5 day solve or whatever)

tbh I wasn't gonna until I remembered that this is a newbie game and thus I should play more constructively

[Rockhopper]

And GIF was bound to explain his reads anyway (5 day solve or whatever)

tbh I wasn't gonna until I remembered that this is a newbie game and thus I should play more constructively

Point being ppl were gonna push even if he didn't.