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[VFP]

Just don't say how much you spend.
As soon as scum know who has spent their money it can influence the kill.

[imaginality]

Not much if you win your D1 bid, of course, but you get your money back if you're outbid.
If we get all four powers we still have six town players who can bid 400+ for other stuff D2.
I wouldn't recommend this for any mix of powers on D1, but in this case I think it's worth making sure we make these all pricey if scum want to outbid us, and this approach is the best I can see for ensuring we do that.

P-edit: yes, D2 it would not be smart to reveal who does/doesn't have money left.
Also that's why we should all bid 400+ on a random item today, as per my suggested approach, then scum can't gain any advantage by who they kill (beyond the usual factors).

[cyrus62]

Not much if you win your D1 bid, of course, but you get your money back if you're outbid.
If we get all four powers we still have six town players who can bid 400+ for other stuff D2.
I wouldn't recommend this for any mix of powers on D1, but in this case I think it's worth making sure we make these all pricey if scum want to outbid us, and this approach is the best I can see for ensuring we do that.

P-edit: yes, D2 it would not be smart to reveal who does/doesn't have money left.
Also that's why we should all bid 400+ on a random item today, as per my suggested approach, then scum can't gain any advantage by who they kill (beyond the usual factors).

that queston wasnt ment for you so scum points for you for helping.

[cyrus62]

Not much if you win your D1 bid, of course, but you get your money back if you're outbid.
If we get all four powers we still have six town players who can bid 400+ for other stuff D2.
I wouldn't recommend this for any mix of powers on D1, but in this case I think it's worth making sure we make these all pricey if scum want to outbid us, and this approach is the best I can see for ensuring we do that.

P-edit: yes, D2 it would not be smart to reveal who does/doesn't have money left.
Also that's why we should all bid 400+ on a random item today, as per my suggested approach, then scum can't gain any advantage by who they kill (beyond the usual factors).

that queston wasnt ment for you so scum points for you for helping.

my bad it was ment for you lol.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

On the powers: these all seem like pretty good powers for us to have or to keep out of scum hands. We can't block them since they have more cash. I think the best way to make sure they pay enough for them is if we all bid for exactly 1, bidding at least 401 for it, but randomly choosing which one to bid for (as in flip a coin twice, or use a 1-4 RNG). With 10 town players, that means there'd be a (3/4)^10 = 6% chance that no one bid for a particular power. So scum won't get any easy picks - if they want one they'll have to bid at least 402 for it, meaning we can outbid that player in future days.

I think that approach makes more sense than bidding for the one we individually decide is most important which could leave others 'easy pickings' for scum.

Numerically a good approach on days when all the powers are strong but hitman does not warrant 400 for a takeaway if the winning townie will live the day. This reminds me, under no circumstances (except extenuating deadline ones) should we hammer before claims in this game, even D1, as if a townie is going to be misexecuted, and they feel certain of it, they can potentially spend 500 on a scum role (today that is hitman) before they are hammered if they have not bid on anything yet.

It's also worth pointing out that based on the midday flip it appears that a single townie already bid their 500 dogebux by evenly spreading them amongst the 4 roles so our probability here is likely 8% rather than 6%, and that's only if all town follow the strat.

[Cupcake Butterfly]

Actually I think 7 pages in we've got a pretty solid gamestate. Reads are being developed, and we've got equal amounts of generic vs mechanical discussion going.

For 21 posts I haven't seen more than maybe 2 reads?

I'm going to be honest, I'm a bit soured by the confrontation between you, VFP, and Alisae -

(on a GAME level, NOT personal.)

I didn't see a point in confronting Alisae as much as directing your attention to someone who you wanted to support. It didn't vibe as genuine to me that VFP was quick to credit Alisae and follow em but doubled back onto you whenever Alisae wanted to gain control of the thread.

I'm experienced with Alisae. Ey almost always goes for control unless they flake out. I thought you would recognize this if you had prior experience with em. The interaction felt in bad faith.

I'm not excusing Alisae turning off players or insulting their intelligence. Your feelings are valid. But I don't know if they're directed in a protown angle yet.

[Cupcake Butterfly]

i think flea the magicians town, i would want to vote them as market owner but 52 seems like they wouldn't be confident enough with that ability.

i dont like distance and mistyx so far, but i dont really have anything i can put into words on them yet. i think for distance what stands out is 76 77 78..? not sure why but those feel weird

im a bit wary of ssbm_kyouko (for like no reason other then paranoia) but 108 makes them feel more likely to be town.

i wanted to have feelings on gamma emerald, but i dont really have anything for them sadly ;-; 109 is something ill keep in mind tho

so i think ssbm_kyouko is who i would currently consider best as market owner, but im unsure

VOTE: distance

gj youre town

Were you ~intending~ to accrue suspicion from the posts Marci proposed?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

On the powers: these all seem like pretty good powers for us to have or to keep out of scum hands. We can't block them since they have more cash. I think the best way to make sure they pay enough for them is if we all bid for exactly 1, bidding at least 401 for it, but randomly choosing which one to bid for (as in flip a coin twice, or use a 1-4 RNG). With 10 town players, that means there'd be a (3/4)^10 = 6% chance that no one bid for a particular power. So scum won't get any easy picks - if they want one they'll have to bid at least 402 for it, meaning we can outbid that player in future days.
I think that approach makes more sense than bidding for the one we individually decide is most important which could leave others 'easy pickings' for scum.

Why did you decide to include Hitman amongst the roles we should roll for?

Actually I think 7 pages in we've got a pretty solid gamestate. Reads are being developed, and we've got equal amounts of generic vs mechanical discussion going.

I've been on a bit of a high from how MO is going and thinking about the setup strategy but game is kinda stagnant otherwise actually and the pink cloud is fading. Got any juicy scumreads? (I don't think MO candidates should discuss TRs today as it may influence scum to vote an MO that could be more likely to designate a scum replacement)

i think flea the magicians town, i would want to vote them as market owner but 52 seems like they wouldn't be confident enough with that ability.

i dont like distance and mistyx so far, but i dont really have anything i can put into words on them yet. i think for distance what stands out is 76 77 78..? not sure why but those feel weird

im a bit wary of ssbm_kyouko (for like no reason other then paranoia)

but 108 makes them feel more likely to be town.

i wanted to have feelings on gamma emerald, but i dont really have anything for them sadly ;-; 109 is something ill keep in mind tho

so i think ssbm_kyouko is who i would currently consider best as market owner, but im unsure

VOTE: distance

Marci, what part of 108 made me feel more likely town? Meant to ask this before bed but forgot. The post was split into two parts I considered separating into a double post and ofc someone replies and I can't tell which part they're addressing :/

[cyrus62]

On the powers: these all seem like pretty good powers for us to have or to keep out of scum hands. We can't block them since they have more cash. I think the best way to make sure they pay enough for them is if we all bid for exactly 1, bidding at least 401 for it, but randomly choosing which one to bid for (as in flip a coin twice, or use a 1-4 RNG). With 10 town players, that means there'd be a (3/4)^10 = 6% chance that no one bid for a particular power. So scum won't get any easy picks - if they want one they'll have to bid at least 402 for it, meaning we can outbid that player in future days.
I think that approach makes more sense than bidding for the one we individually decide is most important which could leave others 'easy pickings' for scum.

Why did you decide to include Hitman amongst the roles we should roll for?

Actually I think 7 pages in we've got a pretty solid gamestate. Reads are being developed, and we've got equal amounts of generic vs mechanical discussion going.

I've been on a bit of a high from how MO is going and thinking about the setup strategy but game is kinda stagnant otherwise actually and the pink cloud is fading. Got any juicy scumreads? (I don't think MO candidates should discuss TRs today as it may influence scum to vote an MO that could be more likely to designate a scum replacement)

i think flea the magicians town, i would want to vote them as market owner but 52 seems like they wouldn't be confident enough with that ability.

i dont like distance and mistyx so far, but i dont really have anything i can put into words on them yet. i think for distance what stands out is 76 77 78..? not sure why but those feel weird

im a bit wary of ssbm_kyouko (for like no reason other then paranoia)

but 108 makes them feel more likely to be town.

i wanted to have feelings on gamma emerald, but i dont really have anything for them sadly ;-; 109 is something ill keep in mind tho

so i think ssbm_kyouko is who i would currently consider best as market owner, but im unsure

VOTE: distance

Marci, what part of 108 made me feel more likely town? Meant to ask this before bed but forgot. The post was split into two parts I considered separating into a double post and ofc someone replies and I can't tell which part they're addressing :/

i was thinking any one could use any role was hoping if i got hitman i could take out scum.

[cyrus62]

fyi the rules dont say you cant

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Hitman only modifies the scum's factional kill so it ignores abilities that would stop it such as doctor or bulletproof protection

[imaginality]

On the powers: these all seem like pretty good powers for us to have or to keep out of scum hands. We can't block them since they have more cash. I think the best way to make sure they pay enough for them is if we all bid for exactly 1, bidding at least 401 for it, but randomly choosing which one to bid for (as in flip a coin twice, or use a 1-4 RNG). With 10 town players, that means there'd be a (3/4)^10 = 6% chance that no one bid for a particular power. So scum won't get any easy picks - if they want one they'll have to bid at least 402 for it, meaning we can outbid that player in future days.
I think that approach makes more sense than bidding for the one we individually decide is most important which could leave others 'easy pickings' for scum.

Why did you decide to include Hitman amongst the roles we should roll for?

Because it's a potentially powerful role for scum in later days, lets them override any protective powers we may have. We shouldn't cough it up for free or low cost.

[imaginality]

On the powers: these all seem like pretty good powers for us to have or to keep out of scum hands. We can't block them since they have more cash. I think the best way to make sure they pay enough for them is if we all bid for exactly 1, bidding at least 401 for it, but randomly choosing which one to bid for (as in flip a coin twice, or use a 1-4 RNG). With 10 town players, that means there'd be a (3/4)^10 = 6% chance that no one bid for a particular power. So scum won't get any easy picks - if they want one they'll have to bid at least 402 for it, meaning we can outbid that player in future days.

I think that approach makes more sense than bidding for the one we individually decide is most important which could leave others 'easy pickings' for scum.

Numerically a good approach on days when all the powers are strong but hitman does not warrant 400 for a takeaway if the winning townie will live the day. This reminds me, under no circumstances (except extenuating deadline ones) should we hammer before claims in this game, even D1, as if a townie is going to be misexecuted, and they feel certain of it, they can potentially spend 500 on a scum role (today that is hitman) before they are hammered if they have not bid on anything yet.

It's also worth pointing out that based on the midday flip it appears that a single townie already bid their 500 dogebux by evenly spreading them amongst the 4 roles so our probability here is likely 8% rather than 6%, and that's only if all town follow the strat.

Two things:

First, the risk with designating a scum role as 'for the person who's about to be convicted to bid on' is:
- other townies don't bid on it, the convicted person gets quick-hammered, and scum get the role for cheap
- other townies don't bid on it, the convicted person is scum, and other scum get the role for cheap

Second, I agree it's reasonable to assume it was a single person who bid 125 on all four roles... but why do you assume they must be townie?

[cyrus62]

On the powers: these all seem like pretty good powers for us to have or to keep out of scum hands. We can't block them since they have more cash. I think the best way to make sure they pay enough for them is if we all bid for exactly 1, bidding at least 401 for it, but randomly choosing which one to bid for (as in flip a coin twice, or use a 1-4 RNG). With 10 town players, that means there'd be a (3/4)^10 = 6% chance that no one bid for a particular power. So scum won't get any easy picks - if they want one they'll have to bid at least 402 for it, meaning we can outbid that player in future days.

I think that approach makes more sense than bidding for the one we individually decide is most important which could leave others 'easy pickings' for scum.

Numerically a good approach on days when all the powers are strong but hitman does not warrant 400 for a takeaway if the winning townie will live the day. This reminds me, under no circumstances (except extenuating deadline ones) should we hammer before claims in this game, even D1, as if a townie is going to be misexecuted, and they feel certain of it, they can potentially spend 500 on a scum role (today that is hitman) before they are hammered if they have not bid on anything yet.

It's also worth pointing out that based on the midday flip it appears that a single townie already bid their 500 dogebux by evenly spreading them amongst the 4 roles so our probability here is likely 8% rather than 6%, and that's only if all town follow the strat.

Two things:

First, the risk with designating a scum role as 'for the person who's about to be convicted to bid on' is:
- other townies don't bid on it, the convicted person gets quick-hammered, and scum get the role for cheap
- other townies don't bid on it, the convicted person is scum, and other scum get the role for cheap

Second, I agree it's reasonable to assume it was a single person who bid 125 on all four roles... but why do you assume they must be townie?

i wonder who that was.

[cyrus62]

i should out bid one of those oh wait i cant cuse im broke lol.

[cyrus62]

truth is one scum could out bid all four easy. but will they if a scum is broke by doing so look for buses.

[imaginality]

Acutally, I'm going to follow up and VOTE: ssbm_Kyouko for post #179. Between that possible scum slip, and the downplaying of hitman... on which note, also if ssbm_Kyouko expects MO to draw the NK (per post #31) why didn't he suggest MO bid for scum powers like hitman instead of no-bid? I feel like he's scum hoping to pick up hitman for cheap.


And HEAL: imaginality

[ssbm_Kyouko]

On the powers: these all seem like pretty good powers for us to have or to keep out of scum hands. We can't block them since they have more cash. I think the best way to make sure they pay enough for them is if we all bid for exactly 1, bidding at least 401 for it, but randomly choosing which one to bid for (as in flip a coin twice, or use a 1-4 RNG). With 10 town players, that means there'd be a (3/4)^10 = 6% chance that no one bid for a particular power. So scum won't get any easy picks - if they want one they'll have to bid at least 402 for it, meaning we can outbid that player in future days.

I think that approach makes more sense than bidding for the one we individually decide is most important which could leave others 'easy pickings' for scum.

Numerically a good approach on days when all the powers are strong but hitman does not warrant 400 for a takeaway if the winning townie will live the day. This reminds me, under no circumstances (except extenuating deadline ones) should we hammer before claims in this game, even D1, as if a townie is going to be misexecuted, and they feel certain of it, they can potentially spend 500 on a scum role (today that is hitman) before they are hammered if they have not bid on anything yet.

It's also worth pointing out that based on the midday flip it appears that a single townie already bid their 500 dogebux by evenly spreading them amongst the 4 roles so our probability here is likely 8% rather than 6%, and that's only if all town follow the strat.

Two things:

First, the risk with designating a scum role as 'for the person who's about to be convicted to bid on' is:
- other townies don't bid on it, the convicted person gets quick-hammered, and scum get the role for cheap
- other townies don't bid on it, the convicted person is scum, and other scum get the role for cheap

Second, I agree it's reasonable to assume it was a single person who bid 125 on all four roles... but why do you assume they must be townie?

First:
-Any quickhammers outside of extenuating deadline circumstances in this game are mechanically incorrect and should be treated as a scumclaim
- I hadn't considered this, I do think this is a valid point. It also occurs to me that caught scum can quickhammer themselves if town are withholding bids so we should not ever vote someone to E1. Instead, at E2 we should

intent to E1

and wait for another player to intent to hammer, and try to give time.for everyone to post so that it can be assumed they have had time to bid

Second: I thought it was the simplest assumption, but now that you question it I think it makes more sense for it to be 1-3 scum posing as town (likely 1). By quarter-bidding all 4 slots they would be able to test if any town were currently outbidding them for anything at midday. The one scum would not have enough left (300) to 500 outbid for cop and doctor, but if they split the 125 votes amongst 2 players it is damning to an auction detective
later on. The reason to split he bids is then both players have 550 left and can outbid the other roles while still potentially getting the cheaper ones.

I'll say this now to everyone: if you bid exactly 125 on ONE OR MORE, but NOT ALL of the roles before midday today, you should confirm you did that in your next post after reading this, or it should be treated as a hard guilty by the auction detective later on. It is already highly suspect to have bid exactly 125 on anything at this stage.

If you do confirm it there is no need to identify which role(s) you bid on or how many role(s) you bid on.

[cyrus62]

well it will cost him atleast 126.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

And I didnt suggest it because I intend to bid on one or both of the scum powers if I get MO which I think is likely. I would have suggested it if I thought I was not going to get MO, and have already hinted at it previously when i said MO candidates should abstain from bidding today

[cyrus62]

hey i was hoping i could win all 4 and become all powerful now i find out if i win hit man i cant use it shame.

[cyrus62]

note to self d2 wait to bid.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I want to see where people side on this as we're stalled out anyways and dont have long for Day phase

VOTE: Imaginality

[cyrus62]

@mod can i get a vote count so i can heal some one else

fyi my vote hasn't change from rvs i real should. UNVOTE: it till after i find a better scum

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Acutally, I'm going to follow up and VOTE: ssbm_Kyouko for post #179. Between that possible scum slip, and the downplaying of hitman... on which note, also if ssbm_Kyouko expects MO to draw the NK (per post #31) why didn't he suggest MO bid for scum powers like hitman instead of no-bid? I feel like he's scum hoping to pick up hitman for cheap.


And HEAL: imaginality

Btw "downplaying hitman" is echoing VFP in a not-so-transparent attempt to turn him on me as I voted him earlier