Open 814: CultD3 CULT WINS

[Umlaut]

VOTE: Flea

Gottem

[Umlaut]

Pagetop

[Umlaut]

RVS Breaker: My vote was serious. Discuss.

No it wasn't. At least not beyond the trivial "all votes are to some extent serious" sense of the phrase. If I'm wrong and you have a real reason you're welcome to share it instead of inviting us to play 20 Questions.

[Umlaut]

Actually this opening salvo by Flea is so

prima facie

silly that only town could think it was a good idea.

VOTE: Lemons

[Umlaut]

Oh shoot I thought that was E-2, sorry

[Umlaut]

I get why y'all would find Flea's case unconvincing but I don't see how it's scummy at all.

[Umlaut]

Who's scum rn off the top of your head if not Flea?

No clue, I've got a bunch of townreads but no scumreads.

Sympathetic to this.

TRs now are Flea, Lemons, Raya. Maybe osuka too but that's more gut than anything I've thought about.

VOTE: Enchant

Don't see any reason to care enough about the question in 42 to reiterate it in 115. This reads like fake activity to me.

[Umlaut]

There are other slots who had done less (and have still done less) and yet you're not applying the same scrutiny to them yet. Strange.

WMFM

(This tell didn't actually work in my last game but I still think it has merit)

[Umlaut]

There are other slots who had done less (and have still done less) and yet you're not applying the same scrutiny to them yet. Strange.

WMFM

(This tell didn't actually work in my last game but I still think it has merit)

I don't know what this means.

Why Me = Fry Me

Responding to accusations by asking "why me and not [these other people]?" is +scum

[Umlaut]

Lol did MM actually include the co-mod on his list of suspects? Can't believe I missed that, it's self-defensive "please yeet anyone but me" finger-pointing if ever I saw it.

VOTE: Major Minor

Let's murder us a cultist, folks.

I still think Enchant's insistence on that particular question of "how did Flea know" is weird but pretty much agree with Raya in 128. MM is way worse,

(Incidentally, having played with Raya before, I regard mindmelding with her as a significant towntell)

[Umlaut]

Lol did MM actually include the co-mod on his list of suspects? Can't believe I missed that, it's self-defensive "please yeet anyone but me" finger-pointing if ever I saw it.

VOTE: Major Minor

Let's murder us a cultist, folks.

Hmmm.

Why is that more likely to come from scum than town, exactly?

Why is self-defensive "please yeet anyone but me" finger-pointing more likely to come from scum than town? Is that your question?

Because scum just want anyone yeeted but them, and town have higher priorities.

[Umlaut]

Incidentally, my day one accuracy in catching scum has been absolutely stellar as of late so I think I'm going to finally develop that infamous MafiaScum ego and declare unilaterally that everyone with a green role PM should sheep me if they like winning.

[Umlaut]

How you tell apart simple cultist from cultist-cop?

Or do converted remain their powerrole and flip as some "Cult Cop"? I think it simple "Cultist".

This is actually a good question. I would have assumed Cult Cop but I don't see anything that clearly states it one way or the other (though the lack of a sample flip PM saying 'Cult Cop' would suggest it would just be 'Cultist')

@mod: Can you answer as to whether a player who begins as Town Cop and then gets cult-recruited would flip as 'Cult Cop' or as 'Cultist'?

[Umlaut]

Enchant, I'd appreciate your stating some kind of opinion on the MaMi wagon. (Is that abbreviation any better?)

[Umlaut]

Mmmm. I know this is probably going to sign my death warrant, but whatever.

VOTE: Enchant

I believe this slot is independently scummy.

The opening "I claim Mafia Goon" is just cheeky enough that I could see cult doing it. This is purely conjecture, yes, but I actually think opening with that kind of joke is more likely to come from scum than town. Disagree? Okay, skip this point.

So much of what Enchant does early is split into two buckets: obviously farcical joking, or trying to direct town actions.

Almost the ENTIRETY of Enchant's posting so far is sort of playing in this orbit

around

the game rather than engaging with the game itself. What I mean is... it's all jokes, or it's talking

theory

about what could

hypothetically

be the best play in any given scenario. Then we keep going with it... what is the ideal claim? Is it bad to reveal roles? Should we massclaim? All this stuff looks neat but... Enchant doesn't have to engage with the game at all when doing this.

Look at all of Enchant's posts thus far. None of them give reads or attempt to pressure anyone or press suspicious actions. But there sure are a lot of them! Because waxing poetic about theory and hypotheticals is a very neat way for scum to generate content without opening themselves up to much risk.

Why do you think this would sign your death warrant?

Enchant isn't a bad vote tbh

[Umlaut]

Kind of think the solve is just {Major Minor, T3}

[Umlaut]

It makes no sense why Enchant qwould pop in to a serious discussion and random.org vote someone as town.... like eiter that shows 0 motivation to play the game or they're scum.

What sense does it make as scum though?

One way or the other Enchant is doing senseless things so I don't see how they can't just as well be town doing senseless things.

[Umlaut]

Well this slowed down.

Is it possible Enchant is struggling to come up with reads because they're scum and know who town is? I thought Enchant was better than that but I can't remember specific meta off the top of my head.

It's possible, sure. I have no meta one way or the other with Enchant so I can't say whether they find it hard to fake reads. I'm inclined to say that randing their vote is so conspicuous I wouldn't expect it from scum, but blah blah wifom who knows.

[Umlaut]

Sadly i could't fight my VI nature and protect self, so:

Spoiler:

I am Town PR. I strongly believe we are toast without CL dead fast anyway. If you want exact role, then go ahead and ask. If other PR will claim, it would be sweet.

Uhhhh wtf

You had, what, two votes on you? This was completely unnecessary.

[Umlaut]

I hope this didn't jeopardize whole game and you are not pissed.

Either way, i changed my mind. Don't claim. I think it's already good other PR know who is me.

What the...

Everyone remember this for the day we actually do massclaim because if we have too many PR claims this will come off in retrospect as "real PRs, please don't cc me"

[Umlaut]

VOTE: Enchant

That's L-1, I recommend you fullclaim since you are so eager to do so.

[Umlaut]

Hard agree that you fucked this game up if you're town.

UNVOTE: Enchant

I can re-vote if there's a counterclaim, otherwise I'll likely go back to Major Minor.

PSA: If you are a Rolestopper, Jailkeeper, Friendly Neighbor, or Unrecruitable Townie, you can counterclaim Enchant. If you are a Cop, Tracker, or Vanilla Townie, you cannot.

I'm looking over the setup matrix now and every possibility has at least one role who could counter a fake Rolestopper claim, so barring a cc we should believe it.

[Umlaut]

Enchant, you should commit now to telling us all your rolestop targets (the next day, not in advance). It's generally pro-town to do so and it will force future cult!you to make up plausible targets, which might still give town some information. Of course cult!you could just renege on the promise but then we can all safely assume you've been brainwashed.

[Umlaut]

I think T3 saying in effect "now I believe Enchant's claim" makes it pretty obvious he doesn't have a counterclaim (and, in case anyone is still unclear on this, neither do I). At any rate if he tries to make a counterclaim later I'm certainly not going to believe it.

I don't think T3 keeping his vote on Enchant after the "I'm a PR" claim is scum-indicative at all. I voted Enchant after that and so did others so that's an odd thing to pick on T3 specifically for.

[Umlaut]

Shoot, I was just typing up a question for Lemons too ("why are you still voting the effectively-confirmed town PR")

[Umlaut]

Well it's better than keeping your vote on Enchant anyway, but I suppose you probably don't trust me then.

At one point I thought the team was {Major Minor, T3} but now they're voting one another and I'm not sure what to think. It could possibly be one of them with you, I kind of soured on Lemons (heh) when they just kind of did nothing including change their vote after Enchant's claim and the replace-out doesn't help either.

[Umlaut]

Sort of seems like there's no point in Major Minor making a case that I'm scum while voting his scumbuddy T3 so I think that team is likely wrong but I'm not sure which if either half is right.

[Umlaut]

They fucked around for most of the day, then started suggesting PRs should just come out and claim on Day 1, then explicitly claimed to have a PR when they had only two votes on them (though as I recall a lot of people agreed they were weird and null at best), then immediately said they changed their mind and no other PRs should claim. This was erratic and suspect enough behavior to get them pushed to L-1 and a full claim extracted; they're a Town Rolestopper. I'm assuming this claim is true since if it weren't someone would be able to counterclaim.

[Umlaut]

At its peak the Enchant wagon was {Major Minor, T3, InsidiousLemons, me}

[Umlaut]

Umlaut you voted with your initial solve onto Enchant (major minor + t3). Why?

I didn't really think about who was or wasn't on the wagon with me (and if I had I hope I still wouldn't have let it sway me). I didn't really have Enchant as anything like a townread in the first place, then 312 really pinged me and made me want to resolve that slot.

Having resolved it, I think there is very likely scum on the Enchant wagon. I can't make up my mind who is most likely but I sort of feel the most town about T3 out of the three now (meaning it's Major Minor and/or you).

[Umlaut]

They had already claimed PR in 299 after encouraging PRs to claim, and asked for other PR to claim as well, then suddenly reversed course in 312 and said "no, no one else should claim." At the time I thought this looked suspect, and specifically like trying to ward off potential counterclaims. Knowing their PR claim is legit I suppose it was just that they realized revealing themselves as a PR had been a mistake (and I agree it was!).

[Umlaut]

I was about to say "Beetlejuice tell" but Beetlejuice is paradoxically so well-known that for someone with a 2014 join date it's effectively an anti-tell

VOTE: Dwlee

I'm suddenly more interested in this than I am in the Major or T3. Lemons' jump onto Enchant is oddly timed in that based on their posts they

should

have voted Enchant pages and pages prior but

didn't

vote Enchant until it was safe (look at 290 basically asking Major's permission to join the wagon??) and then were oddly resistant to jumping back off; 333 seems to acknowledge that Enchant's claim most likely comes from town but still leaves the vote there, and 364

still

leaves the vote there (admittedly that was a "sorry I'm busy" post and devoid of content but it's not that hard to write the word "unvote")

Then Dwlee arrives, votes me, and immediately

reassures

me that I can talk them out of it. Something has rubbed me the wrong way about our interactions; it doesn't feel like they're talking to me the way you talk to a scumread. They also continue Lemons' habit of picking at things that are surface-level "bad" but not really scum-indicative: how is my answer to a question like 400 possibly supposed to help anyone sort me? It's just a make-work question, the kind of thing a person

thinks

they should read as scummy but in reality probably shouldn't care about if they actually care about finding scum.

[Umlaut]

Most likely unavailable today because of ~reasons~, will catch up tomorrow

[Umlaut]

Actually I'm going to go ahead and completely change my mind about Dwlee, they're likely town based solely on the strength of 405-406 in general (or else Dwlee is excellent at faking town motivation) and their indignance at my voting them seems genuine.

I got some town vibes from osuka earlier in the game (and this is from someone who just picked him out as scum in another game) but I don't really remember why anymore

Let's just stick to plan A.

VOTE: Major Minor

[Umlaut]

Honestly calling me lazy is fair, I've sort of lost interest in this day and I think proceeding to a flip will help. Also I actually feel pretty good about the Major wagon and don't really see the need to exert myself.

[Umlaut]

It would have been a lot easier to know you're evil if you didn't just make that post. Now it's complicated.

This reaction is like +++town, scum almost certainly takes that moment to accuse me of "backpedaling" or something

[Umlaut]

I actually could do Osuka if Major is out of the question, I'd at least prefer it to Dwlee or Flea.

[Umlaut]

Major could you claim please?

Nope.

How are you still breathing 7 hours after this

[Umlaut]

There was literally no value to me claiming.

I was VT.

If I claim VT, I just get wagoned anyway and I'm dead.
If I don't claim VT and get wagoned anyway, I'm dead and it doesn't matter.
If I don't claim VT and the wagon falls apart, then at least I haven't given scum more info with which to make their night choices.

I'm not saying it would necessarily have been the case here but I have definitely seen wagons disintegrate because of a VT claim.

[Umlaut]

I keep forgetting and reminding myself that no one dies at night

I guess we have to presume we're in lylo (

l

et's

y

eet or

lo

se) though there's an outside chance cult either no-recruited or was prevented from recruiting.

[Umlaut]

Sorry how is this mylo?

Cult is capped at 3, you know that right?

This is another thing I keep forgetting

My first impulse today would have been T3 based on my assumption that

someone

on the Enchant wagon had to be cult, but the 584-586 progression is kind of town

[Umlaut]

So if we yeet town today then tomorrow is 3:4, and if we yeet a cultist (not leader) tomorrow is (probably)

still

3:4, lovely

[Umlaut]

Hold up, how do you know the cult leader is a him unless you know who the cult leader is?@Enchant

You can't possibly think this is a real slip. Rightly or not, it is very common to use 'him' generically like this.

[Umlaut]

I literally remember you saying you hammered because they didn't claim. That implies there was an element of SRing them

Kind of agree this looks bad now that you point it out; Dwlee's response seems to be responding to the claim that it implies a strong scum read but it still seems to contradict the idea that it was just "I don't like plurality yeets" (which is kind of a weird reason in the first place)

[Umlaut]

So you hammered them because they didn't claim which is antitown

but

you didn't actually scumread their lack of a claim

and

you would have hammered anyway because you don't like plurality yeet?

Do I have that sorted correctly?

[Umlaut]

Raya, talk to me about T3? He posted 584 asking for a claim and then immediately retracted that in 586, which struck me as towny (because I think a cultist would have no need to

really

reconsider and probably wouldn't make that post in the first place). If he's a cultist do you think this is just pure "post some stuff that looks town" faking or do you think it serves some scum agenda?

[Umlaut]

I'm okay with either of those too. Osuka maybe scummier by play but T3 was on the Enchant wagon so idk.

[Umlaut]

That post seriously makes me want to vote Osuka more than anything Osuka himself has posted.

[Umlaut]

VOTE: osuka

[Umlaut]

UNVOTE: osuka

Assuming this claim is true, and I do assume that, we're in B3. Cult consisted of a Leader and Rolecop as of last night, so most likely both of them targeted someone unless they were being extra sneaky. Meaning this is a flat-out clear of osuka (unless he got recruited which I also don't really believe)

It's

possible

Flea is Tracker-turned-Cultist who is just lying about results but I don't think that's what's happening here.

Fuck it, cult has 3 unless they held the recruit so I can't be recruited unless we hit one of them.

This is a point I hadn't thought of. It's actually better to yeet a townie than a cultist (unless CL) then, because we can at least be guaranteed to hold on to a PR in that case

[Umlaut]

It's

possible

Flea is Tracker-turned-Cultist who is just lying about results but I don't think that's what's happening here.

I threw this out here as an offhand "oh yeah I guess this is possible too" but now I'm making myself paranoid continuing to think about it

[Umlaut]

I really don't see cult no-recruiting because it means if they lose their leader d2 they're totally screwed. Rolecop could no-investigate but Osuka is still cleared as leader in that case.

[Umlaut]

If cult leader!osuka caught the crumb I guess it would make more sense to recruit flea than to no target, but then what if enchant rolestopped flea? It is implausible but certainly possible

It's not really possible, assuming that both claims are 'true' in the sense the players were assigned the roles they claim at the beginning of the game (but may have been culted last night) and that townies don't lie about their actions.

• If Enchant
  was
  culted, they may lie about their target but Flea is town and would tell us if they got a no-result last night. Instead Flea claims a "did not go anywhere" result.
  
• If Enchant
  wasn't
  culted, they're telling the truth and rolestopped Mark, not Osuka (I assume this is what you mean rather than "rolestopped Flea")

[Umlaut]

That post seriously makes me want to vote Osuka more than anything Osuka himself has posted.

what post

655

[Umlaut]

Honestly I think it's about a 2000% chance that Enchant got culted anyway so any line of hypotheticals that starts with "if Flea got culted" is probably not worth thinking too hard about

Do you disagree, Dwlee?

[Umlaut]

It's possible Flea misread your "yes" as "yes, I disagree" (or I suppose it's possible that I misread it as agreement and Flea read it correctly)

[Umlaut]

Raya (2) - Major, Enchant

Major is voting from beyond the grave?

[Umlaut]

VOTE: T3

It's better than the Raya wagon anyway.

Note: Raya and T3 are both one vote from yeet

[Umlaut]

VOTE: T3

It's better than the Raya wagon anyway.

Note: Raya and T3 are both one vote from yeet

Hang on, how so?

I suck at counting is how so

(I just mentally went "micro + day2 = 4 votes to yeet" and stopped there)

[Umlaut]

I feel like if T3 is town then going on a little longer after "hammer" could have spewed him town and that makes me wonder if cult!Enchant revealed he wasn't hammered just to keep him from doing that?

UNVOTE: T3

Game is hard :/

[Umlaut]

Hi

I still don't really believe Raya is scum but hitting town is probably the second best thing we can do after hitting CL.

That said, 805 and 845 are relatively convincing (at least on the point that the reaction doesn't clear T3)

VOTE: T3

[Umlaut]

Umlaut/Raya/Dwlee?

Why Umlaut (seems town af) and why not Enchant?

I thought T3 was just trying to get my attention here, didn't occur to me he was naming a team, which is it T3?

[Umlaut]

The more Raya posts, the more obvious it is that she is fixated on getting T3 elimed regardless of gamestate. She is clearly pushing me harder with her words but has pulled this new theory out of thin air that I am cult member defending CL!T3 to have a reason to keep trying to get the "easier" T3 lim even though it is utterly inconsistent with her posting

just lim this

Why is fixating on a T3 elim cult behavior? Fixating on eliminating one player you most think is cult leader is exactly what town should be doing here, whereas cult are just as happy to elim pretty much anyone

but

one player.

[Umlaut]

Yes voting with almost guaranteed cult member Enchant is sure to work.

[Umlaut]

im not v/la currently, but i am on my couch-bed

Couch-beds are fantastic, I have one too

[Umlaut]

Well they would hardly be your team read if they were voting for your top CL suspect over you.

[Umlaut]

Prodge

It's been a while but honestly I haven't had anything to say, nothing has changed for me in two days. Still think T3 is the best bet.

[Umlaut]

Bad day for me, I'm backing for a move, but T3 is still cult

[Umlaut]

packing*

[Umlaut]

Raya is almost confirmed cult FMPOV and I honestly don't trust you to lim Raya tomorrow if I flip town.

I for one am going to strongly reconsider on Raya if you flip town.

Do you really think I'm culted? That's a weirdly specific accusation. So you think I was town day 1?

[Umlaut]

It seems like no one has much to say. If y'all are going to lim Raya just do it, then tomorrow maybe we can try to get an actual cultist.

[Umlaut]

Honestly.

I believe Flea is town. Therefory, it would be good to simple sheep him.
If he was converted, then he would trade claim with CL and claim VT. I think so atleast.

VOTE: Dwlee99

That's a lot of words to say "anyone but T3 plz"

[Umlaut]

It would have been a lot easier to know you're evil if you didn't just make that post. Now it's complicated.

This reaction is like +++town, scum almost certainly takes that moment to accuse me of "backpedaling" or something

I stand by this and have zero interest in a Dwlee wagon, for the record

[Umlaut]

My PoE puts me at Umlaut at the moment.

Can you explain this PoE in detail? Given that there must be something wrong with it I'm hoping if I see it laid out explicitly I can figure out what exactly that is.

[Umlaut]

Dwlee, thoughts on Mark?

if T3 is cult then based on my understanding the other original cultist has to be within you or Mark (with an outside chance of Raya), and Mark is looking pretty town to me so it seems like I must be making a mistake somewhere.

[Umlaut]

I mean if T3 is one of the original two cult members, whether leader or not.

[Umlaut]

• I'm not cult (really)
  
• Enchant and Flea aren't OG cult
  
• I just don't believe Osuka is cult who didn't use their action last night, so Osuka is innocent ior Flea was recruited (and I don't think Flea was recruited)
  
• That leaves {you, Mark, Raya} as possibilities once T3 is flipped
  
• ...actually I
  suppose
  I should consider the possibility where T3 and Raya are cross-busing too? Do you think that's more likely than Mark being scum?

[Umlaut]

I can still use elimination to say that (granting the assumptions) there's at least one cult member in that pool though?

I guess you'd say you disagree with my assumption that Flea wasn't recruited, in which case you would posit an original team of {T3, osuka}?

[Umlaut]

I mean it's possible scum!osuka saw Flea's crumb. I can't gauge that because I'm hopeless at picking up crumbs myself, but I might notice one if it had my own name in it like that.

[Umlaut]

I haven't seriously tried to evaluate Flea's play because I was working on the assumption they were all but conftown, I need to think about that.

[Umlaut]

Flea currently trying to push two of the biggest TRs in the game

Am I seriously one of the biggest TRs in the game and, if so, how did that happen, because honestly my play (if you can even call it that) has been garbage so far.

[Umlaut]

Ah, fuck it

VOTE: osuka

If nothing else it will resolve any paranoia about Flea.

[Umlaut]

Oh.

[Umlaut]

Not going to be around til this afternoon/evening so please don't quicklim but I think Raya is most likely CL, would have died yesterday otherwise.

[Umlaut]

EBWOP: Omit "til" above, I mean I won't be around this afternoon or evening at all.

[Umlaut]

Arguing Flea could be scum is just absurd now tbh.

I kind of just want to lim Raya and worry about the rest ifwhen tomorrow comes. Really I don't see how anyone else is voted out today unless we let scum mess with our heads.

[Umlaut]

Raya is obvscum, I get we have to lim CL and there is some question of whether she is that but given that her teammates didn't bus her to death when a cultist lynch was optimal for them I would be very surprised if she's not. Don't see what else there really is to talk about, if we're wrong let's at least get it over with instead of spending IRL days trying to solve the rest of the game only to lose instantly over that.

[Umlaut]

VOTE: Raya

[Umlaut]

I didn't even think of the self-hammer point but that pretty much settles that Raya is CL from my perspective. It's a good chance at least one scum was voting Raya, could be Enchant for reverse psychology reasons since we all at least half-believed him scum yesterday.

Sorry, I appreciate your wanting to think it through but I see no good reason to prolong the day.

[Umlaut]

Well, if it's wrong we'll know soon enough! I don't see any realistic path to becoming more sure, particularly since Raya has no motive to even appear to coöperate with any investigation efforts today.

[Umlaut]

My bad with not reading Raya right at a single point in the entire game (went from town to CL and was wrong on both). Not so much sorry for the quick vote, I think honestly I would have voted Raya in the end anyway so it really didn't matter.