Open 814: CultD3 CULT WINS

[Korina]

2.7.1
T3 (2) - raya, umlaut
Raya (1) - t3
Dwlee (1) - flea

Name not listed = not voting
(expired on 2021-06-30 14:25:00)

[Enchant]

I can't convince you, because you already assumed me as cult and will ignore all statements/use opposite logic in them. If not Raya and T3, then who you consider CL? Dwlee99? Really?

[Korina]

Umlaut and osuka have been prodded.

[Umlaut]

Bad day for me, I'm backing for a move, but T3 is still cult

[Umlaut]

packing*

[osuka]

UNVOTE:

I'm stumped rn, not gona lie. I reckon we ought to be able to work out a fair bit from the Raya wagon tho if we think through it logically

i agree and i think i can trust you to a degree

what are you thinking

I honestly reckon at this point its worth trying to come up with the various scenarios, and then making an educated guess based on what is most likely

Scenario A: Raya is CL
-If we assume that Cult minions don't bus then cult minions must lie outside wagon ie within Flea/Umlaut/Dwlee
-So at least one of Umlaut or Dwlee would have to have been an original minion in this scenario
-Flea makes sense as a recruit target if cult were able to spot the crumbs, but Umlaut/Dwlee have both felt towny

Scenario B: Raya is not CL and cult has 3 members
-Optimum play here for the cult would be to hammer Raya as even if she is cult minion she can be replaced
-So lack of hammer would imply that all cult were already on the wagon and thus couldn't hammer, so cult from everyone else's POV would like within me/T3/Enchant/Osuka
-BUT enchant can't be CL and Osuka can't be CL in this particular scenario as in this scenario cult recruited last night and Flea isn't culted.
-So this scenario only makes sense from your point of view if CL is me or T3
-Also, it would be likely that Raya is town and not cult at all, as if she was minion she could self-hammer

Scenario C: Raya is not CL and cult has 2 members
-Tbqh I'd not really considered that the cult might only have 2 due to me being protected last night, mainly because that only works if the cult targeted me over Enchant, a claimed PR
-In this scenario, lack of hammer implies that either:
--Raya is minion and cult didn't want her to get hammered. This would probably (but not certainly) mean the other cult would be off-wagon
--Raya is town and both cult were on the wagon and thus couldn't hammer ie 2 of me/Osuka/T3/Enchant are cult

i think the odds of raya being CL are slim, because the odds of 1[umlaut, dwlee] + flea is unlikely. scenario 2 makes the most sense, but i cant imagine either you or t3 being cl.

i'm confused

[osuka]

i cant imagine that raya can be cl if enchant is cult. why would he bus raya so early? i even find it hard to imagine that both are cult as opposed to 1 or 0 of them

[T3]

Ugh.

Raya is very likely cult FMPOV. Lim this, then I'll face your wrath if this is town.

[Enchant]

Cult!me would push CL to give this impression.

[Marky Mark]

Hey, just catching up now. It's been a fairly hectic couple of days IRL sorry

[Marky Mark]

Seems I made you back down. Now you need to find someone else to push. Or we could just go for your cult leader, T3

You "made me back down"? How big is your ego lol.

[Marky Mark]

You could be CL who converted tracker and stoled his claim.
Osuka could do nothing. While it's unlikely, i see ways where cult do it.

Like how would cult know earlyish d1 what the town PR was for cult!flea to fakecrumb tracker in this scenario

[Marky Mark]

Enchant did not hammer T3. It might be smart of cult to not recruit enchant, because then if we don't hit cult leader today it's practically a free miselim for them.

I don't think T3 was ever at E-1? There was some confusion over how many votes were needed to hammer, which led to people thinking he was at one point when he was on 3 votes

[Marky Mark]

i think the odds of raya being CL are slim, because the odds of 1[umlaut, dwlee] + flea is unlikely. scenario 2 makes the most sense, but i cant imagine either you or t3 being cl.

i'm confused

What direction are you leaning in, in terms of most likely?

I want to hear more from Umlaut to try and get a better sort on him, as scenario A (Raya CL) requires either him or Dwlee to be OG cult, and dwlee has been ++town today, especially over the last few pages.

[Marky Mark]

i think the odds of raya being CL are slim, because the odds of 1[umlaut, dwlee] + flea is unlikely. scenario 2 makes the most sense, but i cant imagine either you or t3 being cl.

Thinking this through, if the cult actually was T3(CL)/Osuka/Enchant then I think Osuka would push either me or Raya hard here, as there is a very real risk of losing his CL.

[Marky Mark]

And he isn't doing that, so I'm leaning towards Scenario A with a potential solve of Raya/Umlaut/Flea. I thought Umlaut was v towny d1, but none of these scenarios make loads of sense, so at least some of my reads must be wrong

[Marky Mark]

I'm not gonna revisit those previous Raya points from a couple of days ago rn as I just can't be bothered to deal with her arrogance atm and people can make their own minds up, but she can re-raise them if she wants to

[Enchant]

Enchant did not hammer T3. It might be smart of cult to not recruit enchant, because then if we don't hit cult leader today it's practically a free miselim for them.

I don't think T3 was ever at E-1? There was some confusion over how many votes were needed to hammer, which led to people thinking he was at one point when he was on 3 votes

He was. I even pointed it out.

[osuka]

so ive been thinking ang heres a thought: to anyone who has more cult setup experience on MS, is it generally worth to get rid of a non CL cultist, or do we wanna try and find CL?

[osuka]

because i'm thinking raya is probably cult, but i dont think that slot flips CL. if we wanna go ahead with compromising on what is very likely to be a cultist instead of hunting for CL, i can be on board with that

[Dwlee99]

I think if Raya is cult you're overestimating the probability she isn't CL.

[Dwlee99]

To clarify though: if it is guaranteed cultist vs random elim, in this game state a random elim is better.

[Marky Mark]

Enchant did not hammer T3. It might be smart of cult to not recruit enchant, because then if we don't hit cult leader today it's practically a free miselim for them.

I don't think T3 was ever at E-1? There was some confusion over how many votes were needed to hammer, which led to people thinking he was at one point when he was on 3 votes

He was. I even pointed it out.

Oh wait yeah, sorry I was thinking of even earlier d2 when he was wrongly explained as being at E-1 (by Umlaut IIRC). There was also the fammer saga

[Marky Mark]

And yeah, what Dwlee said

[Enchant]

so ive been thinking ang heres a thought: to anyone who has more cult setup experience on MS, is it generally worth to get rid of a non CL cultist, or do we wanna try and find CL?

If we kill townie, either cult convert if didn't do it last night or remain with 3 people.
If we kill Cult PR/Recruit, cult will convert someone next night for almost sure.


Killing CL is our one option for win and we have 2 shots.