FGO: Mafia in the Lostbelt - 2 Game Over

[Servant Beast]

1000.

[Servant Lancer]

The part of your thought process that I’m trying to understand is,

given the option of simply not antagonizing alter which is always available and costs nothing and reveals no information and solves the situation just fine on its own, why would you instead choose to out Shielder,

after repeatedly telling everyone not to give unnecessary information?

And none of your responses have given me an understanding of this choice

You certainly answered the very last part of the question but seem to have ignored the primary question that I was asking.


I’m getting pretty frustrated rn and I told myself I would walk away if I felt my head getting hot, which it is.

I feel like the options are that you’re either not engaging me in good faith or you say things you don’t actually mean and then accused me of misreading it. Neither of which makes sense.

[Servant Lancer]

Why out over just ceasing with the provoking comments?

Because that would have added another point to the pointless antagonism score card.

The only possible interpretation I see of this is you chose to out Shielder rather than stop provoking Alter because you thought not provoking alter would have added more antagonism. which, obviously, doesn’t make sense to me as a reason to make the choice you did. now you’re saying I’m misinterpreting that. I don’t know how else I’m supposed to read this sentence.

[Servant Lancer]

I’m done. gonna go cool my head off before I start getting emotional.

[Servant Beast]

O...kay then.

Feel better Lancer.

[Servant Beast]

I don’t really care how you read me, I think it’s not very believable but that’s not really relevant. I’m more concerned with actually getting an answer from you that I can vibe with but you kind of seem intent on not giving me that and accusing me of misinterpreting you when I don’t know what other possible interpretation there was to what you said.

I'm going to quote this for posterity. @othertown, what do you think of this post?

@Lancer, sorry you're frustrated. I just think of grievances as being on a sliding scale and past a certain point I feel like the priority becomes to remove grief. I felt I had added oo much to the pile and just did whatever I could even if anti-town to remove some of i.

[Servant Beast]

Also, just as a general request, I'd prefer if I wasn't another casualty to the "must be one scum, one town pairing" fallacy.

[Servant Assassin]

I'm in the process of mulling over a couple isos, one of which is saber's. Before I take the dive there, there are a couple comments to address:

In 805, the first quote is me commiserating with alter, not yourself. As for the 2nd agreeing with someone does not a town read make. Observations like the one about rider are not exclusive stances that come from one alignment, and I'm not going to shy away from agreeing with someone I scumread. If you think I'm treating you like town it's because I don't treat scumreads like worthless gnats whose opinions don't matter, which a lot of other players do.

In 835 Mastina/Ruler asked why I'd think they were 100% town on a berserker scum flip. Simply, intuitively I highly doubt a scumbud takes this hard of a shit on their partner's reads in 509. Is it just 3 reads? sure. Would it tactically be beneficial to them to disagree with someone who was about to become confirm-scum? sure. But I don't believe it would happen on the eve of coronation.

As for ruler's force replace out. I haven't played with mastina in ages but from my memory, mastina as scum makes cases that are 100% grade-A bullshit. Misreps / flawed logic / baseless shit-flinging, the whole lot with a smug confidence with almost no rival. Obviously that's didn't happen here and I'm going to assume that's why people are happy to drop town reads on the slot. All I can say is: at least that's settled.

---------


On Saber:

I'm not sure how to preface this. Saber is a type of player I have trouble reading. They give off an aura of deep inexperience, are prone to faulty logic, heavy speculation, and paranoia. Is there a cutoff from which such behavior goes from possible of a town player to only being in the purview of scum? In my not particularly extraordinary mafia career, I have yet to see a bottom. There is no rabbit hole too deep from which any one townie will happily dive right into while the rest of everybody looks from the top down with shaking heads. And so, when I do see this happening, there are a good chuck of times I simply attribute it to town when in fact its just scum being audacious.

So what is the case for Saber? Firstly, right off the bat, I am positive Saber claimed their true power. If they were scum with a different one, well I do not think anyone would have the imagination to decide to blast off into being forced to defend the one claimed, which as anyone (normal) can see, is complete shit. However there is a case to be made (and I am leaning this way and will offer it) that Saber may very well have taken this power, and mentally decided to treat it as the next best thing to sliced bread. This is still insanity. No one of us would ever do this, but if Saber's proven anything, they have proven they are insane.

I can't actually show from their posts that saber doesn't think their power is the bee's knees when used early. Almost all are frighteningly consistent on that point. Arguably the very first few posts, like 35 are the only cracks there as Saber's other posts tend to signal that they think they are well-suited to the power (see 77, 205, 206, and 218) which would suggest they do in fact like the power. The context for 208 is actually what's happening right now, judgement time, but it is also consistent with someone who knows their power isn't all that good and less likely to come from someone who believes their power is good, for would we reasonable people not find Saber's oversell completely justified given the godlike power they claim to have? Why should Saber worry at all?

There are a couple posts in the iso I don't like but can't make up my mind if they are AI or simply make it clearer that Saber is selfish. Namely, 206 and more recently 909. The first is quite unsympathetic and the 2nd one really just discounts the fact objectively scum would have more to fear from a 100% guaranteed cop check than the mystery option. What moves me over the edge though is a couple of perspective inconsistencies: The paranoia of buddying. It exists in posts 235, 468, 472, and 520. By itself, possibly just overused diction stolen from 2015er newborns. But it really doesn't jive with posts like 316, 474, and to a lesser extent 909. That is, one cannot be both scared of buddying and argue that scum is trying to push over town by not supporting/advancing Saber's bid. Individually, each stance might be plausible to Saber, but I don't see a way to reconcile these.

I know I've basically thrown the kitchen sink here at Saber but I'm being as thorough as I can. And even still I'm not sure there isn't a better elimination option.

[Servant Foreigner]

good, maybe new ruler is going to have better reads

[Servant Foreigner]

My NP is to shut down excessive stupid and pointless T v Ts by limiting the posting of one of the parties involved. Using it early ensures we get good focus and communication between town. It prevents scum from starting drama and trying to pin us against ourselves. Fighting amongst ourselves is how town lose games. I've seen it happen too many times over the years.

imagine being scum, who can claim anything and claim this crap or townie who thinks that this is the best thing for master
idk it feels like there would be some background plays in neighborhoods that no one informs us about, which caused this

[Servant Foreigner]

the only logical explanation for this gamestate is second game thread, where decisions are being made
someone like avenger should be at L-1 right now

[Servant Foreigner]

I would like a readslist with some explanations, Avenger.

It's irrelevant.
I think Foreigner is scum here.
I think scum voted you but max if 2.
I don't think both Assassin and Sabel are town.

I think you're town and I have a very small town pile.

like wtf is this? People are fine being at the same wagon as this guy

[Servant Foreigner]

I don’t really care how you read me, I think it’s not very believable but that’s not really relevant. I’m more concerned with actually getting an answer from you that I can vibe with but you kind of seem intent on not giving me that and accusing me of misinterpreting you when I don’t know what other possible interpretation there was to what you said.

you are just dragging TvT, you won't vibe because you argue

[Servant Avenger]

like wtf is this? People are fine being at the same wagon as this guy

I guess your scum game isn't as good as you think?

[Servant Alter Ego]

On Saber:

I'm not sure how to preface this. Saber is a type of player I have trouble reading. They give off an aura of deep inexperience, are prone to faulty logic, heavy speculation, and paranoia. Is there a cutoff from which such behavior goes from possible of a town player to only being in the purview of scum? In my not particularly extraordinary mafia career, I have yet to see a bottom. There is no rabbit hole too deep from which any one townie will happily dive right into while the rest of everybody looks from the top down with shaking heads. And so, when I do see this happening, there are a good chuck of times I simply attribute it to town when in fact its just scum being audacious.

So what is the case for Saber? Firstly, right off the bat, I am positive Saber claimed their true power. If they were scum with a different one, well I do not think anyone would have the imagination to decide to blast off into being forced to defend the one claimed, which as anyone (normal) can see, is complete shit. However there is a case to be made (and I am leaning this way and will offer it) that Saber may very well have taken this power, and mentally decided to treat it as the next best thing to sliced bread. This is still insanity. No one of us would ever do this, but if Saber's proven anything, they have proven they are insane.

I can't actually show from their posts that saber doesn't think their power is the bee's knees when used early. Almost all are frighteningly consistent on that point. Arguably the very first few posts, like 35 are the only cracks there as Saber's other posts tend to signal that they think they are well-suited to the power (see 77, 205, 206, and 218) which would suggest they do in fact like the power. The context for 208 is actually what's happening right now, judgement time, but it is also consistent with someone who knows their power isn't all that good and less likely to come from someone who believes their power is good, for would we reasonable people not find Saber's oversell completely justified given the godlike power they claim to have? Why should Saber worry at all?

There are a couple posts in the iso I don't like but can't make up my mind if they are AI or simply make it clearer that Saber is selfish. Namely, 206 and more recently 909. The first is quite unsympathetic and the 2nd one really just discounts the fact objectively scum would have more to fear from a 100% guaranteed cop check than the mystery option. What moves me over the edge though is a couple of perspective inconsistencies: The paranoia of buddying. It exists in posts 235, 468, 472, and 520. By itself, possibly just overused diction stolen from 2015er newborns. But it really doesn't jive with posts like 316, 474, and to a lesser extent 909. That is, one cannot be both scared of buddying and argue that scum is trying to push over town by not supporting/advancing Saber's bid. Individually, each stance might be plausible to Saber, but I don't see a way to reconcile these.

I know I've basically thrown the kitchen sink here at Saber but I'm being as thorough as I can. And even still I'm not sure there isn't a better elimination option.

At a minimum, I feel as though Saber's knowledge of past games that they reference suggests they are not an inexperienced player. The overdone paranoia about buddying is another very good point, though.

[Servant Caster]

It almost feels like Saber is trying to get townread by claiming a really useless and anti-town NP, I can't really understand how anyone would think this type of NP is strong?

If a TvT got toxic/heated we could just tell the two players to take a 24 hour break? Why would we even use an NP it's just kind of crazy.

[Servant Shielder]

@Shielder, okay.

I really like Assassin's analysis of Saber.

[Servant Beast]

*pokes shielder* There's no real way to answer that. Sometimes we see things or misreads things and that's really all there is to it.

[Servant Shielder]

Maybe Beast is just town

[Servant Foreigner]

I am pretty sure it is.

[Servant Ruler]

We should at the very least let saber claim who they are

/prod

Totally didn't spend the entire day doing life things

[Servant Assassin]

I don't find Moon Caster's iso nearly as bad as others but I want some more.

Alter Ego has been in the bottom of my reads for a very long time. Check my ISO for reason(s).

The last, and only, specific reason to scumread Alter came from post 238. I don't find it convincing. How has that read matured over time and what specific posts can you point to as to support your conclusions?

[Servant Alter Ego]

I am pretty sure it is.

What are your thoughts on Saber? You expressed a dislike of the lack of resistance to the master vote on them but haven't weighed in on the wagon on them.

[Servant Archer]

Where is the president?

I would like him to weigh in on the three wagons

[Servant Moon Cancer]

The last, and only, specific reason to scumread Alter came from post 238. I don't find it convincing. How has that read matured over time and what specific posts can you point to as to support your conclusions?

That read has not changed. It is fully based on the early posts on Alter Ego having more evasive words in their posts than any normal townie. And no post of Alter Ego after that time has caused me to reconsider.

I think we have gotten everything we could have before the first elimination. We should move on.