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Post Post #2900 (ISO) » Mon Jul 05, 2021 9:00 am

Post by northsidegal »

Votecount 5.1


TargetWagon
Dusa
(2)
Almost50 (), Titus ()
UNOwen
(1)
DrippingGoofball ()
Not Voting
(7)
FakeGod, Bingle, Save The Dragons, GuiltyLion, Dusa, Yuri Gagarin, UNOwen

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to eliminate. The Day 5 deadline is in (expired on 2021-07-15 21:10:59).
Last edited by northsidegal on Tue Jul 06, 2021 12:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #2901 (ISO) » Mon Jul 05, 2021 9:15 am

Post by Save The Dragons »

VOTE: Titus for now
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Post Post #2902 (ISO) » Mon Jul 05, 2021 11:12 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 2896, GuiltyLion wrote: UNOwen has been really low activity, especially as the game has gone on, and most of his ISO and play is asking questions towards people rather than advancing his own reads or pushes. What I'm missing from that slot is any sense of initiative, I feel his latest post was a bunch of townreads but then ambiguous/waffley conclusions about his POE suspect pool, and the question he asked me about DGB doesn't feel all that important or indicative either:
3 out of 4 executions have been on scum, how are you seeing lack of initiative fitting in as scum behaviour?
In post 2896, GuiltyLion wrote: I don't see why there's an expectation/assumption that DGB should have put up a fight for a different target. I felt similar feelings, T3 could be scum but I had doubts, I didn't feel much more strongly about other slots elsewhere and enough people were pushing/voting T3 that I doubted he was much longer for this world, so I just went with it. It feels easy to imagine reasons why town wouldn't push a vanity deepwolf read yesterday, so I don't vibe with the implication here
Those feelings don't sound similar at all, there are clear differences:

a) where you thought T3 could be scum but had doubts, DGB thought T3 could be town but had doubts
b) where you didn't feel much more strongly about other slots, DGB explicitly did

And yes it's easy to imagine a town mindset "well I think this is a misexecution, but maybe I'm wrong and enough players think otherwise that it needs to flip so I'll just let it happen and prepare to say "told you so" if it turns out I'm right" or something along those lines. Or maybe there's another mindset that I haven't thought about. But do you not see why I'd find this attitude inconsistent with DGB's play this game? The impression throughout has been of a player willing to have confidence in it's reads but the clearest example of what I'm talking about is that it
did
push a vanity read on me the previous day, in the face of the Lavar wagon which it actually agreed with. I don't think I'm being unreasonable in finding the passivity suspicious.
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Post Post #2903 (ISO) » Mon Jul 05, 2021 11:21 am

Post by UNOwen »

Re: Yuri/T3, in general I'd agree that their interactions indicated not partners. But T3 clearly expected and didn't try to prevent his execution day 4, maybe even expecting it as far back as day 3. So it's possible that was a planned bus, in which case the interactions would be complete WIFOM. I don't consider them worth a lot either way.
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Post Post #2904 (ISO) » Mon Jul 05, 2021 11:33 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 2898, DrippingGoofball wrote:Am I wrong?

The scum busses to have a NK.

They have a designated player to carry out the long game. This player might be widely townread.
This is exactly the wrong strategy to have as scum this game. The scumsidedness of the setup is HEAVILY mitigated by early scum eliminations. First of all, the more scum there are when we switch to neighborhood elims the more likely scum is to be able to setup a cascading kill control scenario. Secondly, the NKs being made later in the game make the early eliminations lower information eliminations and thus more likely to be on town. As the setup exists, there is very little benefit to taking the shots early as opposed to late.

Wanting to bus early is maybe a viable strat if scum isn't getting the venges later, but the overwhelming force of having a potential of 5 voices in each hood makes that a lesser concern than just having a bunch of towny voices. Bussing isn't impossible in this setup, but being bus happy is not a particularly good idea.
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Post Post #2905 (ISO) » Mon Jul 05, 2021 12:00 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 2901, Save The Dragons wrote:VOTE: Titus for now
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Post Post #2906 (ISO) » Mon Jul 05, 2021 2:13 pm

Post by Dusa »

Bingle's reasons for thinking Yuri could be town makes some sense! That increases my problem of players who are alive in the game needing to be good!

Titus! I don't know how to explain my feelings to you better! I'm so bad at explaining! I have seen you develop a plan for tricking others before! It was very devious! It was not very convincing to others, but you felt confident it would convincing to others! That is to say, when you are bad, you pick something to believe that you think people will believe, and you pick that thing based on how easy it is to believe, and then you add persuasion on top of that! When you are good, you come to believe all sorts of things, and some of them will be easy or hard to convince others, and no matter what you happen to get you try to convince other people of that!

You mentioned that you pushed the same person for a long time and no one joined you! That's an example! If you were bad, you would just pick a different product to sell! That's what Charon does when I don't buy anything...
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Post Post #2907 (ISO) » Mon Jul 05, 2021 2:19 pm

Post by Dusa »

VOTE: UnOwne!
I will unvote if I need to share the neighborhood so that everyone has connections to talk!

If I had to pick a second mafia, I think I might would have to pick DGB! Some of its moves feel more opportunistic lately! That's weak... because I'm not sure who is bad right now..

UnOwen and Save The Dragons are both the quietest two players! It feels so hard to have feelings about them at the same level of the players who have many more posts! LavarManos and T3 felt like that too! It is so frustrating!
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Post Post #2908 (ISO) » Mon Jul 05, 2021 7:02 pm

Post by Yuri Gagarin »

Sup, still think I want VOTE: A50 today
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Post Post #2909 (ISO) » Mon Jul 05, 2021 11:20 pm

Post by DrippingGoofball »

Why
Paraphrasing a role PM takes seconds, fabricating a good fakeclaim takes an eternity.

"Metadiving DGB is like playing Roblox" - T3
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Post Post #2910 (ISO) » Tue Jul 06, 2021 12:02 am

Post by Almost50 »

In post 2896, GuiltyLion wrote:I think UNOwen is my vote right now. I'm not really understanding where the Dusa suspicion is coming from - it feels like A50's main point/argument (Dusa switching from A50 to Cupcake on D2 because scum gave up on the A50 miselim) is assuming scum!Dusa first and then explaining the narrative where her play makes makes sense coming from scum. Which is certainly possible, but doesn't feel especially more likely than worlds where she is town.
That's not my case on Dusa though. My case is she has ALWAYS been voting the counterwagon of Scum. except for the Gamma wagon which she started while another Scumster was being wagoned and she -probably- didn't expect the Gamma wagon to blow at that point, but she -again probably- hoped the town would be split between the two (with a couple of former Gamma voters rejoining- to make way for a mislim compromise.

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Post Post #2911 (ISO) » Tue Jul 06, 2021 2:44 am

Post by DrippingGoofball »

VOTE: UNOwen
Paraphrasing a role PM takes seconds, fabricating a good fakeclaim takes an eternity.

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Post Post #2912 (ISO) » Tue Jul 06, 2021 4:51 am

Post by Titus »

I like the idea of counterwagons even if neither is my favorite. I need more VCA info before shots fly.

If we can pass votes through hoods, that would be great.
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Post Post #2913 (ISO) » Tue Jul 06, 2021 5:06 am

Post by FakeGod »

you probably enjoyed my antics then

I drove counterwagons all over the place

I'm also going to tell you that there will be no more useful information with VC, so you'll have to get accurate VCA done with what you have now.
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Post Post #2914 (ISO) » Tue Jul 06, 2021 5:13 am

Post by Titus »

In post 2913, FakeGod wrote:you probably enjoyed my antics then

I drove counterwagons all over the place

I'm also going to tell you that there will be no more useful information with VC, so you'll have to get accurate VCA done with what you have now.
I am suspecting but not certain you are town. You, DGB, and Dusa are competing for townbeard status in different ways.
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Post Post #2915 (ISO) » Tue Jul 06, 2021 5:26 am

Post by Titus »

To be clear, you all have characteristics of that but I doubt you are all town but it's possible.
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Post Post #2916 (ISO) » Tue Jul 06, 2021 5:58 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 2902, UNOwen wrote:3 out of 4 executions have been on scum, how are you seeing lack of initiative fitting in as scum behaviour?
Maybe I'm misunderstanding your question here, but I feel like 3/4 executions on scum
should
indicate that town is generally the more active ones driving the game and correctly blocking/working together? My assumption is that scum would not want so many of theirs to go down this early and so they haven't had control deciding most of the eliminations, therefore I want to press more closely on slots that haven't steered much. I feel if both the remaining scums were influential voices, we would have had at least one more miselimination.

As for the rest of your post, that's fair. I keep having this dynamic with you where you say something that sounds off to me, I push on it, then your subsequent explanation does make more sense / is easier to see from town mindset. I think I'm struggling a bit sorting you or feeling good about your slot because it still feels like you have been primarily talking with me and I don't remember a lot of instances of back and forth or engagement between you and other players.
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Post Post #2917 (ISO) » Tue Jul 06, 2021 6:09 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 2907, Dusa wrote:VOTE: UnOwne!
I will unvote if I need to share the neighborhood so that everyone has connections to talk!

If I had to pick a second mafia, I think I might would have to pick DGB! Some of its moves feel more opportunistic lately! That's weak... because I'm not sure who is bad right now..

UnOwen and Save The Dragons are both the quietest two players! It feels so hard to have feelings about them at the same level of the players who have many more posts! LavarManos and T3 felt like that too! It is so frustrating!
This is a terrible vote, we have a long way to deadline and it's the last time that will be the case. Talking about neighbourhood composition looks like you've already settled on wanting me executed. Why do you think I'm scum? Do you even think I'm scum or is it just hard to read? Please answer earlier questions too.
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Post Post #2918 (ISO) » Tue Jul 06, 2021 6:11 am

Post by Dusa »

I'm bad, but that's not why!!!!!!
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Post Post #2919 (ISO) » Tue Jul 06, 2021 6:12 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

idk team my scumdar is just not giving me any strong signals right now

part of me wants to focus a bit more closely on the Oka kill. He was only in the D1 hood, that is not a great use of venge if scum is trying to get closer to hood parity across the board unless they think they can get enough influence in the D1 hood to drive a useful kill in the later hoods.

The D1 hood right now is:

Dusa
DrippingGoofball
GuiltyLion
Save The Dragons
Yuri Gagarin
FakeGod

Do we think there are two scum in there currently? If scum killed Oka to cause WIFOM around a town!Yuri slot, who is trying to take advantage of that to push a Yuri miselimination right now - it seems only A50 has jumped on that.
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Post Post #2920 (ISO) » Tue Jul 06, 2021 6:13 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 2918, Dusa wrote:I'm bad, but that's not why!!!!!!
?????
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Post Post #2921 (ISO) » Tue Jul 06, 2021 6:24 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 2920, UNOwen wrote:
In post 2918, Dusa wrote:I'm bad, but that's not why!!!!!!
?????
actually am I crazy for thinking this post likely comes from town

I think if scum!UNOwen and town!Dusa he'd know for sure Dusa is being weird/trolling and he wouldn't immediately act so confused about it

but maybe I'm desperate to latch onto something indicative from UNOwen
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Post Post #2922 (ISO) » Tue Jul 06, 2021 6:25 am

Post by FakeGod »

I'm looking at my A50 push in d2, and assuming A50 is town, it's an attractive wagon for scum to join in order to save their teammate Cupcake Butterfly.

Dusa was already on it before me, and Lavar flipped town. DGB I think is town because how she dismantled the wagon afterwards. Two remaining votes are Yuri and UNOWEN.

I guess I will push an execute between Yuri and UNOWEN today.
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Post Post #2923 (ISO) » Tue Jul 06, 2021 6:26 am

Post by Titus »

A50 jumping on Yuri is also a strech given his push on Dusa. Hood 1 could be agency captured though.
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Post Post #2924 (ISO) » Tue Jul 06, 2021 6:33 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 2916, GuiltyLion wrote: Maybe I'm misunderstanding your question here, but I feel like 3/4 executions on scum
should
indicate that town is generally the more active ones driving the game and correctly blocking/working together? My assumption is that scum would not want so many of theirs to go down this early and so they haven't had control deciding most of the eliminations, therefore I want to press more closely on slots that haven't steered much. I feel if both the remaining scums were influential voices, we would have had at least one more miselimination.
No that makes sense, the passive scum theory was part of my suspicion of Lavar. I guess I feel that if I was scum then I'd have actually tried to push a miselimination, rather than just floating around and crossing my fingers that town made mistakes on their own.
In post 2916, GuiltyLion wrote: As for the rest of your post, that's fair. I keep having this dynamic with you where you say something that sounds off to me, I push on it, then your subsequent explanation does make more sense / is easier to see from town mindset. I think I'm struggling a bit sorting you or feeling good about your slot because it still feels like you have been primarily talking with me and I don't remember a lot of instances of back and forth or engagement between you and other players.
Back and forth requires two players, and you've been mostly the player who's actually pressed me for follow up opinions. Also, the previous two days have featured inevitable + agreeable executions, so I wasn't very motivated to try and provoke discussion with my posts. Obviously that's not very helpful but it's hard to see the point in speculating when I knew we'd be moving to a more informed game state soon anyway.

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