FGO: Mafia in the Lostbelt - 2 Game Over

[Servant Alter Ego]

[Servant Beast]

The last, and only, specific reason to scumread Alter came from post 238. I don't find it convincing. How has that read matured over time and what specific posts can you point to as to support your conclusions?

That read has not changed. It is fully based on the early posts on Alter Ego having more evasive words in their posts than any normal townie. And no post of Alter Ego after that time has caused me to reconsider.

I think we have gotten everything we could have before the first elimination. We should move on.

Wasn’t I pretty evasive in my answers too? What’s the difference between alter and I in terms of this?

I’d still rather go for foreigner I think. Rather than saber. I Don’t like thinking this way, but I have doubt there because they qualify for the too weird to be scum read. I should probably think more deeply about this.

[Servant Foreigner]

I am pretty sure it is.

What are your thoughts on Saber? You expressed a dislike of the lack of resistance to the master vote on them but haven't weighed in on the wagon on them.

haven't?

My NP is to shut down excessive stupid and pointless T v Ts by limiting the posting of one of the parties involved. Using it early ensures we get good focus and communication between town. It prevents scum from starting drama and trying to pin us against ourselves. Fighting amongst ourselves is how town lose games. I've seen it happen too many times over the years.

imagine being scum, who can claim anything and claim this crap or townie who thinks that this is the best thing for master
idk it feels like there would be some background plays in neighborhoods that no one informs us about, which caused this

There are enough better scums to burn but ppl prefer to follow them

[Servant Alter Ego]

So you think they're scummy but there are better votes? I don't understand why you're referring to background plays there. The statement you quoted makes you sound like you think they're dumb but not necessarily scum.

[Servant Lancer]

The last, and only, specific reason to scumread Alter came from post 238. I don't find it convincing. How has that read matured over time and what specific posts can you point to as to support your conclusions?

That read has not changed. It is fully based on the early posts on Alter Ego having more evasive words in their posts than any normal townie. And no post of Alter Ego after that time has caused me to reconsider.

I think we have gotten everything we could have before the first elimination. We should move on.

What exactly have you "gotten" from this phase? you don't appear to have tried to engage, like, anyone.

[Servant Lancer]

@assassin it feels weird to me that I’m still in your scumpile but you say things to me like this which imply that you are treating me as town:

Hey sorry, I know it'll feel like shit seeing the red if it comes to pass. But at the same time, for me, things really didn't feel right, and at least this offers an explanation and its a good wake up call.

and this:

As for me - I don’t necessarily disagree that his early ISO is lacking in content but I think most recently him being surprised at not being put in preferred-elim piles is gut-towny-feeling to me.

I agree with this. I'd add that his entire ISO feels slightly over the null line into town territory.

[Servant Foreigner]

So you think they're scummy but there are better votes? I don't understand why you're referring to background plays there. The statement you quoted makes you sound like you think they're dumb but not necessarily scum.

more like null, while others are scum

[Servant Lancer]

I'm back here: VOTE: moon cancer

I think foreigner is town.

I think foreigner and saber both voting moon cancer and then both becoming counterwagons to moon cancer is probably town-indicative for them and scum-indicative for moon cancer, on average. (although saber could still be scum, I think moon cancer is most likely of the 3 to be scum regardless of saber's alignment). I thought saber's NP stuff was a bit oblivious and have no idea whether that's intentional or not, but on second thought I don't think I think it's inherently scummy.

[Servant Lancer]

updated-ish reads

our lord and savior: Berserker
probtown: Alter/Archer/Caster/Shielder/Rider/Ruler/Foreigner
null-ish: Assassin/Saber/Beast
probscum: Avenger/Moon Cancer

[Servant Beast]

@avenger, would you claim Miller as scum? No meta. Just on a personal level. Do you think that as scum you would claim Miller out the gate?

[Servant Lancer]

Pretty much everyone has Avenger in their nullscum tiers (except for like, Saber, which I feel like could be partner-indicative for Avenger & Saber) and yet no one has voted him. So I'm fine voting there too.

Saber also had some fencesitting hesitation over voting moon cancer so I could easily see that be a bussing vote.

[Servant Lancer]

that should probably drop Saber down at least a half-tier, I think.

[Servant Saber]

Sorry been busy. Will try to catch up tonight. I'm demotivated a bit but still confident we can win.

[Servant Avenger]

@avenger, would you claim Miller as scum? No meta. Just on a personal level. Do you think that as scum you would claim Miller out the gate?

No, I wouldn't.
But given I give this same answer as town or scum it has no impact.

[Servant Avenger]

Let's put it this way though, how often are millers dealt with?
More than not. I personally think that the general meta should be Miller claims do not make MyLo unless confirmed town.
I also think that a vig should always shoot a miller claim regardless of what has happened. Therefore, it's actually a stupid play from scum to claim (hence why the meta should remain regardless).

I don't survive to end game, and I'm not going to be pushing back on that later.
I have 2 additional roles though, 1 is either for or against scum (and low key ironic for me to get), and 1 is anti scum in this setup.
Both of these are also provable, the first at any point in the day and the second at the end of the day.

Here's some food for thought though, and I've been thinking this over for the last day to if I should say or not, and I've decided I want to since Lancer and Foreigner are shading and most likely contain 1-2 scum.
In addition, my power up power thing is the same Sabres. Originally I read Sabres comment as it's better late game, and that is my view on it.
So my thoughts here are
A) if anyone else at all has this power, then its plausible to be town or at least irrelevant to thought right now and I think Sabre is town anyway.
B) if only me and Sabre have this power then it's likely 1 of us is scum and 1 of us is town. Obviously in this situation, I would claim the town.

If its A, I'm probably going to use my first power on Foreigner if the votes are not going there.

[Servant Alter Ego]

I'm not interested in moving off Saber when they haven't really responded to the votes on them or being wagoned at all. Also, the narrative of them being a "counterwagon" to Moon Cancer doesn't really track - 3 of the voters on Saber were common ith the ones on Moon Cancer - Me, Lancer, and Rider.

[Servant Alter Ego]

It is, however, notably ironic that I'm apparently Moon Cancer's biggest scumread but they have no probably sheeping me on both Berserker and Saber.

[Servant Alter Ego]

So you think they're scummy but there are better votes? I don't understand why you're referring to background plays there. The statement you quoted makes you sound like you think they're dumb but not necessarily scum.

more like null, while others are scum

...but if they're null, why did you have a problem with them getting the master vote?

[Servant Alter Ego]

Let's put it this way though, how often are millers dealt with?
More than not. I personally think that the general meta should be Miller claims do not make MyLo unless confirmed town.
I also think that a vig should always shoot a miller claim regardless of what has happened. Therefore, it's actually a stupid play from scum to claim (hence why the meta should remain regardless).

I don't survive to end game, and I'm not going to be pushing back on that later.
I have 2 additional roles though, 1 is either for or against scum (and low key ironic for me to get), and 1 is anti scum in this setup.
Both of these are also provable, the first at any point in the day and the second at the end of the day.

Here's some food for thought though, and I've been thinking this over for the last day to if I should say or not, and I've decided I want to since Lancer and Foreigner are shading and most likely contain 1-2 scum.
In addition, my power up power thing is the same Sabres. Originally I read Sabres comment as it's better late game, and that is my view on it.
So my thoughts here are
A) if anyone else at all has this power, then its plausible to be town or at least irrelevant to thought right now and I think Sabre is town anyway.
B) if only me and Sabre have this power then it's likely 1 of us is scum and 1 of us is town. Obviously in this situation, I would claim the town.

If its A, I'm probably going to use my first power on Foreigner if the votes are not going there.

Why claim now? It's not like anyone was voting you.

[Servant Saber]

I know I've basically thrown the kitchen sink here at Saber but I'm being as thorough as I can. And even still I'm not sure there isn't a better elimination option.

I'm not responding to the full ISO but I will comment in general that I have to have a certain amount of confidence, some would say arrogance, to make the play that I did. However, I have read up on the prior stump games and I know intimately what made them work and what makes them fail. That combined with the ability to silence scum/toxic players is a near guaranteed victory. The problem is I can't use my points of reference to prove these points without outing myself.

So when Berserker came in running for master and things seemed to coalesce around him, I felt compelled to sort that. That became doubly true when I had to decide to double down on fighting a scum master, fighting an anti-town master, or realize that I lost a political fight which I needed to win. If it was the latter, I had to back off for thread health or risk becoming the very thing that loses games. Ironically, I would have been a good use of my NP if that was the case.

[Servant Lancer]

I'm not interested in moving off Saber when they haven't really responded to the votes on them or being wagoned at all. Also, the narrative of them being a "counterwagon" to Moon Cancer doesn't really track - 3 of the voters on Saber were common ith the ones on Moon Cancer - Me, Lancer, and Rider.

It is, however, notably ironic that I'm apparently Moon Cancer's biggest scumread but they have no probably sheeping me on both Berserker and Saber.

ah, I didn’t look at wagon comp at all.

I’m fine with yeeting any of my bottom 4 reads, I don’t have that strong of a preference for moon caster. I just feel like that slot has done nothing town at all and deserves more pressure at least.

[Servant Saber]

the only logical explanation for this gamestate is second game thread, where decisions are being made
someone like avenger should be at L-1 right now

Why Avenger?

[Servant Saber]

It almost feels like Saber is trying to get townread by claiming a really useless and anti-town NP, I can't really understand how anyone would think this type of NP is strong?

If a TvT got toxic/heated we could just tell the two players to take a 24 hour break? Why would we even use an NP it's just kind of crazy.

You obviously have not seen game changing T v Ts or are pretending not to. Rarely do such players "take a break". They each have to have the last word. They drown out other posters in the game.

One of the most memorable was Civilization mafia which had hydra dissonance and T v Ts so bad scum won flawlessly.

[Servant Saber]

@Shielder, okay.

I really like Assassin's analysis of Saber.

He didn't reach a conclusion on me though.

[Servant Saber]

We should at the very least let saber claim who they are

/prod

Totally didn't spend the entire day doing life things

I'll fullclaim if Berserker determines it necessary, not before then. If that means I don't fullclaim, so be it. It's his town now.