Mini Theme 2222: Open Draft Mafia [Game Over]

[Dwlee99]

Something about infinity's mech talk in pinging me as townie here but also do you have more reads than the Dunn one?

I guess I had a scumlean on cyrus but I need to engage there. It might just be that I was annoyed with him. I like taly for town though, his posts have felt more manufactured when I played with scum!him.

PEdit: I was the first one to bring it up? And taly asked me specifically about it?? What are you on about

Cyrus being like this is actually very town-indicative for him to the point where I'm going to go out on a limb and say we should literally never eliminate his slot unless there's a guilty on it.

[Infinity 324]

*thumbs up*

[Bingle]

Dunn should probs not pick mason (we might can turn it into a parity cop), but I need to think on this.

I don't understand this

You have early town cred for claiming the card right off.

By passing it off to another player, that player can become confirmed town by actually using it, and it would lock town you (barring shenanigans) by enabling it.

... I think. I'm new to this kind of game, correct me if I'm wrong.

Nope.

As proposed, Dunn might get a cop inno at some point in the future (assuming that Dunn is town and that there is a second mason in the used cards, which, for the sake of argument is a 10/13 and a 60/99) (the 60/99 comes from Dunn's perspective of knowing that there is not a second mason in his pack, unless there is a second mason card in his pack in which case I'm ruining what was actually a pretty good gambit but I find that to be unlikely to be the case). This is positive utility, and a town thought process. However, scum can always choose to burn the role if they have it or shoot Dunn if they don't to make the mason card another VT card.

Alternatively, if we have two people claim to have mason in their pack come tomorrow, we can leash both people with packs to choose mason on N2 specifically. This has the following results:

If both packs are in the hands of mafia, mafia chooses whether to fake a 1v1 or fake a masonry, which either nets us a confirmed scum or means if one scum is killed the other immediately follows.
If both packs are in the hands of town, we have a publicly known masonry on N2 with a presumable ability to protect them in the setup.
If the packs are split between town and scum we have a public 1v1 between the two players if they survive the night, again, with the benefit of likely protective power in the hands of the town.

[Bingle]

Bingle does.

To be clear: the decision above is unilaterally Dunn's decision. Dunn should decide if he thinks half public masonry with him or going for a parity cop usage is better for town and announce that decision on D2. He should not announce it before then.

[Bingle]

Oh, whoops, I meant to respond to the A50 quote separately.

I'm a high priority kill for both mastina and A50, exacerbated by the fact that this is a mech setup and I thrive in mech setups. A50 is targeting the scumkill at me specifically because he doesn't want to deal with reading my alignment, there's a decent chance I die here regardless, and because doing so makes the scumteam think twice about actually shooting me if I'm town. He also knows I expect him to do this coming into the game.

Basically, monkey is leaning hard into the WIFOM from the word go which is a promising start from him.

[Bingle]

@cat what does the murdering

: Do packs flip with remaining roles when their holder is killed? I can't remember where we ended up on that.

[Infinity 324]

Alternatively, if we have two people claim to have mason in their pack come tomorrow, we can leash both people with packs to choose mason on N2 specifically.

Hmm. Scum can avoid giving dunn's pack to themselves, meaning this only actually benefits us if the other mason gets into scum's hands n2. If both are town, it's an outed masonry instead of a non-outed masonry, which isn't the end of the world but is a downside.

House may have been wrong but I still kinda like his idea too.

[Bingle]

Saving the masonry for scummier players is a decent idea, but it also presumes that the act of claiming mason is towny and I think Dunn is good enough AND likes to live dangerously enough that it isn't.

First of all, scum who knows their partner has the other mason role could easily take both mason roles and only claim one N1 as a grab for towncred. Second, we only have ~60% odds that the second mason role exists and I think that's a gamble scumDunn would be willing to take.

My hot take here, btw, is that townreading Dunn for outing the mason card is actually more town indicative than Dunn outing the mason card.

[Bingle]

Cyrus being like this is actually very town-indicative for him to the point where I'm going to go out on a limb and say we should literally never eliminate his slot unless there's a guilty on it.

How many games have you played with cyrus?

[Flea The Magician]

Gotta love a "Loyal Neighbouriser" shot

[Dwlee99]

Cyrus being like this is actually very town-indicative for him to the point where I'm going to go out on a limb and say we should literally never eliminate his slot unless there's a guilty on it.

How many games have you played with cyrus?

One completed game but I've skimmed through some other ones as well.

[Infinity 324]

First of all, scum who knows their partner has the other mason role could easily take both mason roles and only claim one N1 as a grab for towncred. Second, we only have ~60% odds that the second mason role exists and I think that's a gamble scumDunn would be willing to take.

This seems like a bad deal to me. If dunn's buddies don't have the mason, it's slightly less than 60%, but 50% chance or so that you get guiltied is awful, even more so for a strong scum player.
Hoping that other townies would clear you and let you pass the mason seems like a bad thing to rely on too. If dunn's buddy does have the mason, they have to take it too based on dunn's plan, so then he's locked in to claiming masons with his partner. And there could be a third mason right? Seems like terrible play all around

[Infinity 324]

(if they only take 1 mason then whoever gets passed the mason knows that the person who passed it to them didn't follow dunn's plan)

[Bingle]

A thing to keep in mind when choosing your powers:

You will know the four options another player has to choose from after making your decision. Say I were to pass up a N2 cop, the player after me would always pick it if town. That player not immediately outing a result on D3 would thus be extra special suspicious on D3. Additionally, a player receiving a pack with a N2 cop in it on D3 would definitely want to claim that, because who the fuck passes up the N2 cop for any reason.

For that purpose, strongly consider choosing a role you'd like to keep out of scum's hands (Strongman, for example) over a role you actually want to use on N1. The exception would be something like N1 Tracker or Novice Psychologist where using the role early is very important.

There are no roles that require claiming them from your pack on D1.

[Flea The Magician]

Bingle I hate you, i'm just saying.

[Flea The Magician]

<3

[T3]

The townies: Bingle, cyrus, Dunn, Dwlee, T3

[Bingle]

This seems like a bad deal to me. If dunn's buddies don't have the mason, it's slightly less than 60%, but 50% chance or so that you get guiltied is awful, even more so for a strong scum player.
Hoping that other townies would clear you and let you pass the mason seems like a bad thing to rely on too. If dunn's buddy does have the mason, they have to take it too based on dunn's plan, so then he's locked in to claiming masons with his partner. And there could be a third mason right? Seems like terrible play all around

I mean... Assuming Dunn scum AND only one mason card in the scumteam AND a successful NK, the odds that town has a mason D2 are either 40/89 or 45/89 depending on whether we mislim or hit scum today. It's a high risk play, sure, but not one I think that would be beyond Dunn choosing to do. I'd definitely consider it, depending on the content of the scum packs.

If scum had both mason cards, committing to taking both mason cards N1 isn't a bad idea. It's literally the only time a mason card can be safely chosen by scum and it gives Dunn a pretty good early townread to leverage, while simultaneously denying town the ability to have a masonry.

[T3]

Fabricated a read on a naked RVS votw.

Mastina does this

As town or as scum?

[Bingle]

Bingle I hate you, i'm just saying.

Don't blame me because weird beard dude didn't make it clear enough that the roles changed in Draft Mafia. It was only my job as reviewer to make sure the setup info was clear enough.

[T3]

The scum: MURDERCAT

[Bingle]

As town or as scum?

Both. She gutwalls early reads as scum because it's a cornerstone of her townplay.

[Infinity 324]

I mean... Assuming Dunn scum AND only one mason card in the scumteam AND a successful NK, the odds that town has a mason D2 are either 40/89 or 45/89 depending on whether we mislim or hit scum today. It's a high risk play, sure, but not one I think that would be beyond Dunn choosing to do. I'd definitely consider it, depending on the content of the scum packs.

The upside seems nowhere near worth it to me especially since people wonder why you're still alive at the end of the game. Dunn is good enough to survive until lategame anyway.

[Infinity 324]

Fabricated a read on a naked RVS votw.

Mastina does this

As town or as scum?

As town at least

[T3]

UNVOTE: mastina.
I tunneled her the entire game in Townstumps and I don't want to make that same mistake.