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[Gamma Emerald]

Even if cop's not dead, as per my early game reasoning they absolutely shouldn't have waited this long to claim their result so I would not believe any cop claim now.

From the alive players, the bids I know of:
Imaginality: won 1-shot RB for 410, won 1-shot neighourizer 90, total 500
Ssbm: won 1-shot hitman for 426
S&M: won 1-shot AD 300, won 200, total 500
Gamma: won GF 499
Something_Smart: won 2-shot watcher 500
marcistar: won 2-shot gravedigger 225

The only players who could have won the 301 hitman are:
ssbm, marci, Gamma

So if Gamma flips town, and we manage to cram votes on Something_Smart tomorrow so we don't insta-lose, the other scum is either ssbm or marci

That said, I do think most likely it's Gamma + someone. And agree Gamma's vote should already be on Something_Smart.

The main doubt I have is why would scum not hide the watcher bid D3 and the hitman bid D4, if they weren't using them to frame Gamma?

tbh in this case I think the team is probably S_S and kyouko
I don't think the game plays out this way if marci is scum, so many different things I feel like should be different if that's the case
VOTE: ssbm_kyouko

[imaginality]

It's fine to look for the scum buddy but why you think anyone is voiting anyone outside of {you, Something_Smart} today I have no idea. That seems like a complete waste of a vote.

[imaginality]

The hides are indeed confusing but to me it looks like scum don't really know how to use it effectively, given how they didn't hide on two of the days and hid JK but didn't even win it.

My first instinct is that this points away from ssbm being scum, but it seems like imaginality is also good enough at mechanics, so it could just be them WIFOMing that they're bad at it.

I don't think there are any combinations of two scum left in the game where

neither

of them would notice the 499+301. If certain other players were still in the game, maybe, but as it is it just seems too dumb.

So for me that comes down to is it a frame, or an attempt to make it look like a frame?

[Something_Smart]

Or they just didn't care, and they were willing to lose Gamma today. Mastina was kind of an obvious kill, but also an important once since she would become a cop if scum were executed today. (And Gamma was possibly getting executed even without the guilty.)

...which I think would point toward you to some extent, because otherwise they might be scared of your roleblock. But not sure about that.

[Gamma Emerald]

kyouko is pretty much always scum here, no?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

do u remember what the claims for bidding on cop were? i could only find 2 claims but im not sure if theres more

I think we bid 365 and didn’t get it. We spent everything on 1 shot AD=300 + 1 shot tracker=200.

Speaking of, Gypyx just informed me that my “inno” on Kyouku was meaningless if he actually visited you.

I think it’s Kitty/Gamma/Kyouku.

Kyouku could push Gamma because prior to SS guilty, I tr him, so he was never in any danger.

Mastina kill confirms Marci town and probably was the intended NK, so us/SS/Marci=all town.

This is interesting to me because I could have sworn I recently asked a similar question regarding a jailkeeper and a voyeur and was told the voyeur would see actions that targeted the jailkept target. I think another player answered though and not a mod so I'll pm the mod about this. Jailkeeper should not make the target ascetic though, just block the kill, so if I had tried to visit her with a kill I think you should have seen it.

Also just because you TRed Gamma doesnt affect how much danger he is in. It only took 3 to lim yesterDay. Pretending that my push on Gamma was not genuine or was not intended to get him eliminated is just incorrect.

I think we bid 365 and didn’t get it. We spent everything on 1 shot AD=300 + 1 shot tracker=200.

tyty

im trying to use all my brain power to figure out numbers and whats more likely do you think distance couldve won 2shot ad?

If Distance won 2-shot AD it looks pretty likely that Cupcake won doc, and possibly flea won cop.

On a different note, the 301 bid for hitman. I think there are two possible scenarios:

1. Gamma is scum and bid that much, and other scum has 300 or less remaining (otherwise I think they'd bid higher) and Gamma either didn't notice that people would notice the 499+301=800 or thought a "scum are framing me" excuse would work
2. Gamma is town and scum bid 301 to likely win it while framing Gamma

If gamma is town and mastina wasn't lying about the range she won JK for to try to deceive scum, then 301 definitely outbids town.

So my notes were really thinking mastina was scum, so her flip kinda trashes what I had to say for the most part.

S_S, why did you choose to watch Mastina?

She claimed a jk on Marci and there was no kill yesterday.

Scum obviously wants to kill Marci and can’t if Mastina continues to jk her.

JK was one shot... it's possible Marci performed the kill because most people seemed to either TR her independently or accept that Distance crumbed an inno on her. That would also result in no kill.

[marcistar]

Mastina was kind of an obvious kill, but also an important once since she would become a cop if scum were executed today. (And Gamma was possibly getting executed even without the guilty.)

im confused, what does this mean?

[Something_Smart]

Which part?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

im thinking deeply of this tho, why wouldn't distance have just straight up claim the inno on me then..? cop only 1 shot, he has no reason to hide his action from us.

Well, it's possible that he didn't want scum to know he'd spent most of his money.

But yeah I'm not at all convinced that he really did have the cop;

it was just the first thing that came to mind when I read how confident he was in you being town

. It's a possibility, but not the only one.

This is a good reason for S_S/Marci to kill Distance

S_S, why did you choose to watch Mastina?

She was clearly town

and (essentially) confirmed to have the tracker.

Why was she clearly town? I'm town and from looking at the VFP flip and the auction claims it seemed clear to me she was scum. I feel it would be difficult to have the same info as me on the numbers and still consider mastina town. It is odd that you 1) did not use your watcher ability when there was a seemingly obvious kill (sheeping mastina on this as I didnt think it was obvious at the time, but I now know there was no malicious intent), 2) failed to watch the obvious target 2 Nights ago, and 3) watched a less obvious target who looked like scum after the VFP flip last Night, AND happened to see Gamma visiting. I find it odd to think that Gamma would perform the kill as his potential partners, if you are town, are all more TRed than him and would be less likely to be tracked or roleblocked.

S_S, why did you choose to watch Mastina?

She was clearly town and (essentially) confirmed to have the tracker.

You mean jk, we had the tracker.

You had the 1-shot tracker but mastina won the 2-shot yesterday unless someone else bid 200 before she did. She claimed to be the one bidding 200 at midday, and it was won for 200.

I just hate the assumptions being made

I do agree with this sentiment-- if you're trying to base logic on assumptions, you'd better understand that the logic is only as valid as the assumptions are.

That said, we should be taking some things on probability.

All things considered, marci looks pretty likely to be town, so it's probably better to just accept the loss in the rare case where she isn't than to continue to worry about her.

This is also something that S_S says if partnered with Marci. Imo from a town pov it only made sense to see mastina as scum after seeing the flip and the bids yesterDay. All signs pointed to marcistar being shot last night. Yet, not only was she not shot, S_S did not watch her. Likely because he is partnered with her.

[marcistar]

Which part?

"become a cop"?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

You bid 499 on GF correct?

So how does rb affect SS’ result?

yes

I'm talking about rb because I'm hoping they can block the scum NK tonight

If you flip town, scum use their hitman power.
What's your view on who won the hitman power if not you?

not sure
who would have wanted mastina dead? that's probably the best lead

Lmao, only answer is Marci after the mastina flip. Wait a minute.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Marci is confscum fmpov unless S_S is bussing Gamma

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Nobody else can afford hitman after seeing mastina flip

[ssbm_Kyouko]

So fucked off that I didnt bid on a neighborizer, I could have cleared myself in everyone else's pov as well

[ssbm_Kyouko]

The last 2 scum are 100% amongst S_S, Gamma, and Marci.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

This is good because I was starting to doubt s&m again

[marcistar]

Why was she clearly town? I'm town and from looking at the VFP flip and the auction claims it seemed clear to me she was scum. I feel it would be difficult to have the same info as me on the numbers and still consider mastina town.

whys everything so about numbers with you..?

This is also something that S_S says if partnered with Marci. Imo from a town pov it only made sense to see mastina as scum after seeing the flip and the bids yesterDay. All signs pointed to marcistar being shot last night. Yet, not only was she not shot, S_S did not watch her. Likely because he is partnered with her.

huh weird...

You had the 1-shot tracker but mastina won the 2-shot yesterday unless someone else bid 200 before she did. She claimed to be the one bidding 200 at midday, and it was won for 200.

thats so weird how all signs point to me being "an obv nk" and it being "weird i wasnt killed"! when i quite obviously didn't win a bid and had no investigative powers left... and mastina had an investigative power?? wow i wonder why i wasnt nked thats such a hard one..

[Something_Smart]

Why was she clearly town?

Her whole play surrounding the JK was very genuine, even discounting the fact that she was the only explanation for the missed kill.

[Something_Smart]

"become a cop"?

Tracker is effectively a cop with one scum alive, because if you track someone and they don't visit the person who dies, they have to be town.

[Something_Smart]

Marci is confscum fmpov unless S_S is bussing Gamma

Nobody else can afford hitman after seeing mastina flip

Couldn't Gamma have it?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Marci is confscum fmpov unless S_S is bussing Gamma

Nobody else can afford hitman after seeing mastina flip

Couldn't Gamma have it?

Oh you're right yeah... I think? Yeah, gamma or Marci could have it. Hmm thought I had something

[ssbm_Kyouko]

So if Gamma is scum his partner can still be anyone, numerically speaking

[Gamma Emerald]

feels like kyouko just slipped that I'm town

[ssbm_Kyouko]

feels like kyouko just slipped that I'm town

No, I was just really in the mindset that 301 was a bid made by scum!marci to frame you in a marci/mastina team and wasn't looking at my notes on the auction amounts when I posted that cuz I was on the toilet.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Interesting point to note is Gamma/Marci could have bought both Hitman and the 2-shot AD for 450. If that were the case, Marci would have only had 75 left after AD and would not have been able to outbid on Tracker. By killing mastina and buying hitman, it allows scum to scoop up hitman to dodge the roleblock, and kill the tracker to prevent investigations.

In this situation, Gamma performs the kill using Hitman so that if Imaginality blocks him, it appears to Imaginality that he has an inno on Gamma. Imaginality may block Gamma in this situation because Ima was voting Gamma at EoD. Gamma can even claim to be being framed by Marci, and on the red flip, it may appear that marci is scum that tried to frame Gamma by paying 301 for the hitman. There's a lot of towncred to be had in bussing D1, not moving off of the wagon onto later confirmed to be town, and then getting "framed" by flipped scum!Marci in mlimlo.

I think in this case that Imaginality would be NKed toNight and I would be the mlim target in the following round of mlimlo.