FGO: Mafia in the Lostbelt - 2 Game Over

[Servant Beast]

What reason do people have for suspecting Beast?

My avatar is red.

[Servant Rider]

Like, people have said "I am surprised how many clears this set up can make" --- but like, having both a player immune to investigations and a player who is a miller is the counter to that.

On top of a 'friendly neighbor', neighborizing-cop, PT cop, and 'informed townie'?

Berserker being immune to investigations seems plenty enough as a counter to investigative actions across the board.
Who is the 'miller' countering?

[Servant Caster]

What reason do people have for suspecting Beast?

I don't believe his informed role claim.

He supported Saber and tried to push it through fairly early.

Fairly shallow reads throughout the game - not a lot of agency during the elimination phase from what I can remember.

[Servant Rider]

Well, I don't believe the informed townie claim either.

But the Miller claim doesn't fit anywhere. My role doesn't care about the Miller. Assassin's doesn't seem to think their role cares about it either.

[Servant Caster]

I'm tempted to support Archer though on Foreigner.

My thoughts about Foreigner were that it seemed townie that he kept trying to hit me with random made up lies but that thing he said about Saber catching Moon Cancer does seem awful in retrospect.

[Servant Archer]

Catching up.

My issue with the Avenger-scum hypothesis is that for it to be true, it supposes Titus was doing nothing but bussing on day 1 (she jumped on Avenger in the duel and pushed fairly hard on him), and I'm not sure why that is somehow more plausible than all 3 wagons day 1 being on scum. To dismiss one of those as implausible but not the other seems like questionable logic.

What would be the issue with Titus bussing all her partners on Day 1? Her goal was to be elected and be removed from the game.

Do you think it's more likely that town will just listen to all her reads after they know she was scum all along, or question the validity of her reads?

@Rider -- Day 0 came before Day 1

So no, none of her Day 1 plays were built around the idea that she might get elected

(I get the feeling that maybe I am not the one with a poor grasp of the game state)

[Servant Rider]

@Rider -- Day 0 came before Day 1

So no, none of her Day 1 plays were built around the idea that she might get elected

(I get the feeling that maybe I am not the one with a poor grasp of the game state)

Day 0 can arguably be considered part of Day 1.

Don't act like you twisting semantics around is a reason to argue me having a poor grasp of the game state.

[Servant Beast]

To be fair, you do have a poor grasp of the game state if you're town rider.
and you did just ask investigatives to out themselves which is anti-town.

Can we reset relations, Rider is clearly an abrasiveness chap. I'm not sure if he's scum though, since town tend not to think they need to make friends, while a subset of scum do think that.

[Servant Beast]

Also just in general, maybe we shouldn't set up speculate a game designed by Cabd.

[Servant Shielder]

I don't believe his informed role claim.

Well, I don't believe the informed townie claim either.

If I say that my noble phantasm soft-clears myself, does that make it more or less believable?

[Servant Archer]

Look back at your post 1824...

Alter Ego talked about things that Saber did Day 1.

You responded that those things made perfect sense because Saber planned on getting elected. -- Which clearly does not line up with the actual order of events.

Maybe it is less of your grasp on the game state (that was more of a light jab, in response to you completely dismissing my ideas as fantasy) and more that you just did not read Alter's post too closely before you decided to disagree with it.

[Servant Rider]

and you did just ask investigatives to out themselves which is anti-town.

There are

two

scum left.

Two

.

If someone has a valid reason to think Avenger is a Miller, they should definitely out it. And if not, we can eliminate Avenger and squeeze out the last with the remaining Days and Night Actions.

Acting like we can't afford to out some very specific investigative role (that probably would've challenged Assassin on Day 1 when Assassin claimed Cop mind you) with what we already have on the table is very silly.

[Servant Shielder]

With 4 scum in a 14 player game, I'm not seeing why one informed town clear is unbelievable?

[Servant Archer]

@Avenger -- can you expound upon your miller ability? Like, is it just for cop results, or?

[Servant Rider]

Look back at your post 1824...

Alter Ego talked about things that Saber did Day 1.

You responded that those things made perfect sense because Saber planned on getting elected. -- Which clearly does not line up with the actual order of events.

Maybe it is less of your grasp on the game state (that was more of a light jab, in response to you completely dismissing my ideas as fantasy) and more that you just did not read Alter's post too closely before you decided to disagree with it.

Yes, but Saber also immediately pushed Moon Cancer early on in Day 0 (and for reasoning I found to be suspicious). So yes, Saber probably did plan on bussing to some degree (and that's why I read Alter Ego's post in the manner that I did).

Moon Cancer originally supported Saber before backing down and flipping their reads, which makes me think that Moon Cancer was not really on board with that plan, at least not initially.

With regards to what happened on Day 1, who really cares? It's not like Saber made it there without a heap load of suspicion on her, especially after we found out what her Noble Phantasm really was.

[Servant Archer]

Archer, do you have any abilities that would prevent you from being added to a neighborhood?

@Shielder, is there a reason you asked me this?

[Servant Beast]

Lancer cleared themselves as well, they're a friendly neighbor.

[Servant Shielder]

Archer, do you have any abilities that would prevent you from being added to a neighborhood?

@Shielder, is there a reason you asked me this?

Yeah, I was just confirming what happened with my own role. It's not something you need to worry about.

I plan to claim my role before the end of the day, but don't want to jump the gun and potentially influence other claims depending on who is claiming today.
@Berserker ^?

[Servant Archer]

Rider, you seem more against a Foreigner flip then I would expect from just about anyone.

Like, I know I came out saying I was hard against an Avenger flip -- but I have since softened to the idea that if I am wrong, you are probably right.

I find it interesting that when I asked you if Avenger flipped town, where you would look next, that you were not equally interested in looking into the other option presented today (foreigner)

[Servant Shielder]

I think both Archer and Rider have made good points today.

[Servant Archer]

I think both Archer and Rider have made good points today.

So, my proposed plan is that we kill both !!!

[Servant Beast]

I like this plan.

[Servant Archer]

I think both Archer and Rider have made good points today.

So, my proposed plan is that we kill both !!!

Obviously stopping if the first one flips scum.

And also, with a preference that we start with Foreigner

[Servant Shielder]

VOTE: Foreigner

Ultimately it comes down to voting on play or voting on mech
Foreigner is based on play, Avenger is a mix of mech/play with the gladiate

Right now, I'm leaning towards Foreigner

[Servant Rider]

Rider, you seem more against a Foreigner flip then I would expect from just about anyone.

Like, I know I came out saying I was hard against an Avenger flip -- but I have since softened to the idea that if I am wrong, you are probably right.

I find it interesting that when I asked you if Avenger flipped town, where you would look next, that you were not equally interested in looking into the other option presented today (foreigner)

While I admit I may be wrong on Foreigner (and I'm pretty sure I even said I wasn't completely convinced), you've still failed to convince me that Foreigner is scum, even if Avenger is town.

But it's also probably because I don't really think I'm wrong on Avenger right now?