Open 820: The Siege of Aurelia — Game Over!

[skitter30]

I think that keep is probably easier to solve over gate honestly

[skitter30]

I'm going to not have time to properly reread until the morning, but in particular I want skitter/implo to reread and solve in the other locations now that they have a confirmed scum from their POV.

I dont have a full solve bur i'm p sure t3 is town in keep so the scum there isnf super relevant so long as the other town votes him

I have to review/resort wall, i'm p sure penguin is town but i need to resolve my read on the other 2

[T3]

implo-unwnd makes that swap plausible but still very ??? as to why they'd put skitter in the gate, rather than someone more likely to lose a 1v1. I really hated that move from implo.

My thoughts exactly. I have a townread on skitter so maybe to confuse us?

[T3]

Either skitter/{SS/Peng} or implosion/unwnd I think? This swap makes no sense unless there isn't a 2-0 or 0-2 in wall or gate.

[T3]

I think Keep should flip first because I think catboi's alignment is high info.

[catboi]

I think Keep should flip first because I think catboi's alignment is high info.

Explain?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Honestly i'm feeling p good abt my reads. I think uwnd was planning on 1v1ing me if i had gone to gate yesterday, which would imply the swap was gonna be betwewn wall and keep

That probably says something abt the town-scum distribution at wall-keep at the time but i havent figured that out yet

It means there were 2 or 0 scum at Keep if this pov is town and the assumption that scum!unwnd was going to 1v1 you are correct.

Mm.

I felt like the weird way unwnd was acting toward skitter made them somewhat more likely to be partners.

Which makes this swap very interesting.

If they are partners, Dunn is likely scum for hammering Keep as it guarantees they can't be sequestered at Wall with him by POE.

Sorry to clarify the sentence abt unwnd: i'm trying to sort out if the swap lets me read anything into his alignment from my pov and i dont think (?) I can

I wasnt trying to say i think he's town

That's correct, I looked at this for a while, the only information we could have gained comes from if scum swaps the IC into gate from another location, then we know part of the pre-swap distribution of scum at the swapped from location.

I'm going to not have time to properly reread until the morning, but in particular I want skitter/implo to reread and solve in the other locations now that they have a confirmed scum from their POV.

Everyone else can do this too by making parallel solves: a scum!skitter and a scum!implo solve. I think that would be helpful

I think Keep should flip first because I think catboi's alignment is high info.

I think I want Wall to flip first as they're the most high risk and they were all "pushed" into Wall, meaning we can discern nothing about their alignments by knowing the alignment of Dunnstral who hammered the first location. I would hate to see the game come down to Wall. Also, I think unwnd is more high-info than catboi, and that of the scumreads that could do the most damage to town if they are town, unwnd ranks the highest. If he's actually town here I think he's an easy mislim for Wall so Wall carries a high risk and should be first.

I think what I want from skitter and implosion are two sets of solves: one that assumes unwnd is scum, and one that assumes he is town.

[Dunnstral]

It always comes down to the wall

[ssbm_Kyouko]

It always comes down to the wall

Meaning?

[Dunnstral]

It always comes down to the wall

Meaning?

Same as last run of this setup.

Either skitter/{SS/Peng} or implosion/unwnd I think? This swap makes no sense unless there isn't a 2-0 or 0-2 in wall or gate.

Why those pairs?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Here are the 3 possible scum pairings (ignoring Keep) depending on the pre-swap scum distribution at G-K-W.

Town!skitter:
2-1-0: [unwnd, implosion]
1-1-1: [penguin/s_s, implosion]

Town!implosion:
2-1-0: [skitter, unwnd]

Town!implosion knows we were 2-1-0 before the swap so we can eliminate the 1-1-1 in his section.

Town!unwnd can look at the above poe and know that he cannot scum with skitter, which leaves no possibilities for town!implosion and guarantees scum!implosion on a town!unwnd flip.

If we kill unwnd at Wall:
town!unwnd: we lose wall but auto-win Gate because he's town and we know his town POV locks implosion in as scum, resulting in 1-1 ending at Keep.

Scum!unwnd: we win Wall and dont know who is scum at Gate. Town is up 1-0 and we solve from there.

Any objections? Any holes in this logic?

[T3]

What I don't get is why I wasn't swapped out of Keep. Because at this point I'm likely being voted in -> scum lose Keep so obviously scum are going to swap me out. If the scum are 1-1-1 then they effectively have to swap me out.

[T3]

That makes me think scum were forced to do a Gate/Wall swap.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Also it is proven that unwnd and skitter are not SvS, so we know at least one side of their interactions around catboi are real

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Tbh I'm leaning towards skitter being scum which means unwnd is town, but if I'm wrong we're down 0-1, and we have a guaranteed outcome of 1-0 or 1-1 as it is, so I'll take the guaranteed outcome over my read 10/10 times.

[Something_Smart]

it is proven that unwnd and skitter are not SvS

How so?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

What I don't get is why I wasn't swapped out of Keep. Because at this point I'm likely being voted in -> scum lose Keep so obviously scum are going to swap me out. If the scum are 1-1-1 then they effectively have to swap me out.

That makes me think scum were forced to do a Gate/Wall swap.

I think this stands from town!T3 POV, but it's wifom:

scum!you thinks catboi will be forced to wield the hammer and that he is likely to choose you over town!dunn who recklessly hammered Keep. So scum!you doesnt swap out of Keep.

Dunn also said he'd vote for catboi so idk if you're as sure a shot as you think

[skitter30]

Town!implosion knows we were 2-1-0 before the swap so we can eliminate the 1-1-1 in his section.

Sorru this bit i'm not following
(Tallikng from your pov, not mine)

How does town-implosion know that, say, me/ss or me/penguin is impossible

Lets just say me/ss: its 1-2 prior to the swap, and me going to gate makes it 1-1-1

That universe does necessitate town-unwnd tho so i think the rest of the post does follow (?)

[skitter30]

Tbh I'm leaning towards skitter being scum which means unwnd is town, but if I'm wrong we're down 0-1, and we have a guaranteed outcome of 1-0 or 1-1 as it is, so I'll take the guaranteed outcome over my read 10/10 times.

Why?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

it is proven that unwnd and skitter are not SvS

How so?

Oh nm you right. If it's TvT though we can go into 1-1 at Keep and examine the interaction to see who is fanning the flames

Pedit: just my gut feeling right now, I wouldn't have even posted that if I wasn't confirmed and didnt have a mechanical way to gain advantage or parity already

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Neither of you will convince me to vote the other before Wall flips, so it would behoove the Town at Keep to wait for the wall flip for the best chances at victory. And any scum at Keep wont vote early either because they would have to hammer a townie.

[skitter30]

Also i think from your pov me/unwnd are possible still?

If unwnd is scum it was 1-1-1 yesterday, and swapping me for him doesnt change that distribution in that universe

[ssbm_Kyouko]

So what's important now I think is for Wall to lay out their reads on the Keep. Also skitter if you're town, you should invite so that implosion cannot self-hammer and cut your time to post reads short, because if unwnd is scum he will certainly do that

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Also i think from your pov me/unwnd are possible still?

If unwnd is scum it was 1-1-1 yesterday, and swapping me for him doesnt change that distribution in that universe

Yes I realized that when S_S questioned it

[skitter30]

Neither of you will convince me to vote the other before Wall flips, so it would behoove the Town at Keep to wait for the wall flip for the best chances at victory. And any scum at Keep wont vote early either because they would have to hammer a townie.

Ok sounds good. I'm gonna work on re-solving wall
Fwiw (from my pov at least) for me it is between ss/unwnd rn:
- i townread penguin's anger at implo's hammer (dunno why he would be mad that his partner did that as presumably that would be a good outcome for them)
- implo repeatedly wanted a me/him/penguin oairing and idk why he wants his own partner in the mix