FGO: Mafia in the Lostbelt - 2 Game Over


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Post Post #2425 (ISO) » Tue Jul 27, 2021 2:59 pm

Post by Cabd »

With 6 players alive, it will take 4 votes to burn a servant.

Rider (1): Beast

Deadline for Day 4 is set at: (expired on 2021-07-30 23:05:00)

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Post Post #2426 (ISO) » Tue Jul 27, 2021 3:02 pm

Post by Servant Lancer »

I don't have enough spoons to reread and post. it's one or the other.
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Post Post #2427 (ISO) » Tue Jul 27, 2021 3:04 pm

Post by Servant Alter Ego »

In post 2398, Servant Lancer wrote:to me it feels like he's just trying to widen the elimpool
But why do that if no one is actually going to follow him? It doesn't make sense, given the gamestate.
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Post Post #2428 (ISO) » Tue Jul 27, 2021 3:16 pm

Post by Servant Beast »

It doesn't make sense from a town perspective either Alter.
It just doesn't make sense at all. @_@.

The best you can say is that Rider can't be scum because their entire team would have been discussing Lancer's claim. So he wouldn't have missed it or failed to pay attention to the relevant information.
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Post Post #2429 (ISO) » Tue Jul 27, 2021 3:24 pm

Post by Servant Beast »

Actually, most of them would have been dead at the time, so nvm.
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Post Post #2430 (ISO) » Tue Jul 27, 2021 3:37 pm

Post by Servant Caster »

In post 2398, Servant Lancer wrote:to me it feels like he's just trying to widen the elimpool
I kind of doubt this

it feels more like he is trying to check every possible area we might have fucked up

its unrealistic for a scum to widen the elim pool onto a friend;y neighbor

im pretty sure its never happened before?
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Post Post #2431 (ISO) » Tue Jul 27, 2021 3:43 pm

Post by Servant Beast »

I'm pretty sure it has, but I don't agree with the premise. It's entirely possible he was looking to avoid being blind-sided by an abilities Lancer might've had for later and it's clear just from the discussion itself that Rider has more of an issue that Lancer is scum reading them than that their claim is suspect. Most of the case they dumped was arguing about Lancer's views more than the thing that actually matters, which is that they're clear.
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Post Post #2432 (ISO) » Tue Jul 27, 2021 4:09 pm

Post by Servant Alter Ego »

I'm going to keep summarizing the hood, because I don't know what else to do at this point:

Thread gets locked again because of mastina, we move to off topic discussion about our plans for the weekend (I thought about seeing a fireworks show but sadly did not end up going). When mastina made, I believe her last post against Saber, I decide her reasoning based on actual thread content rather than alt speculation isn't bad. With the force replace he says the slot is a top townread for him, and I say I trust his judgment as far as mastina's meta.

He makes a comment about how he was worried about Archer but a post he made was good (can't check which one here, obviously). I admit I didn't quite see the early townreads on Archer but if Saber were to flip mafia I'd call him town.

At that point I make mention to Berserker that I think Saber is mafia for their claim plus "other reasons" - the other reasons were based on my identity guess of it being Titus, and her posting a ton in other games while ignoring this one. I suggest a pivot to Saber, notscience says if he votes he ruins any hope for VCA but he's on board. I say I'll wait a moment to see how other people respond to the claim in the hopes of getting somewhat organic reactions, then vote Saber. He mentions he's curious how Beast reacts.

notscience mentions how silencing roles are usually scum roles, although Cabd might subvert expectations with his game design, he also didn't feel town was likely to feel such a role is strong. I make a comparsion to roles in the first game that had potentially anti-town sounding abilities, because I was sympathetic to the idea of not judging someone by a claim given my own role. But I felt like the idea the NP was somehow protown in its use was incredibly farfetched. notscience makes a note about how Beast more or less ignored Saber's role claim altogether and didn't comment on it, getting into an argument with Rider instead.

Then notscience makes a post asking if we can have mastina back, in reference to new Ruler (Momrangal) coming into the game with wildly bad takes. I say it's annoying to have a slot that's almost 99% town making such bad takes. notscience actually doubts his read on the slot because he feels the replace in is tanking it. I say I don't want to jump to conclusions, mainly because I didn't think mastina would make arguments so grossly against the spirit of the anonymous game as scum.

At that point I throw my vote down on Saber to see who bites, I remark that I like the wagon composition. I felt like Beast and Avenger reacted poorly to the votes. notscience comments how they wouldn't both react the same way, he makes a comment about how moon's vote on Saver looks like a bus vote.

I ask if it's even worth the time ISOing Saber at this point, as I feel like I'm okay with them being the vote. I then begin transferring/updating the ISOs of players I've done. I do Assassin, Avenger, and Archer. I won't summarize everything but I felt slightly more doubtful on Assassin after rereading him but still townleaned him, disliked Avenger a lot, and felt Archer was town but not a top town read unless Saber flipped scum.

At that point I say I thought about ISOing Caster but didn't have much to add. I felt like scum wouldn't have spent the master phase overtly dumping on a town wagon, but I was starting to become concerned that her input to the game was fading. notscience is more aggressive, says Caster needs to catch up and weigh in or die. I say to see how things go now that the holiday is over. I feel like I might have had my mind hung up on this conversation when I voted her later in the day.

I make a comment about how I feel Saber is avoiding the thread. Activity tell on Titus.

I do a Lancer ISO and conclude they're still my top townread.

I look at the remaining group of Foreigner/Moon Cancer/Rider/Ruler/Saber/Shielder/Beast. I didn't feel Shielder or Moon had enough content to be worthwhile ISOs and my reads were settled on them, didn't want to reread mastina's posts, felt Saber was pointless if the elimination was going to be on them at that point, and was dubious how useful even trying to read Foreigner would be, which left Rider and Beast, an I settled for doing Rider because his ISO was shorter.

At that point, I take note of how Moon was totally willing to vote Saber with me despite me supposedly being his top scumread. I actually felt like Moon might be a better vote simply because it was hard to get a wagon going on him despite him having an absurdly low amount of content.

I also remark that Avenger claiming is odd but felt we might be better off giving him some time to allow him to prove himself. I had thought, based on his claim, that he should have a chance to prove himself. I had mistakenly assumed at the time he claimed that his actions were night actions.

notscience had been away for a few days because of the holiday weekend, but came back. He had started to doubt Saber a bit because of the AtE she was putting out in thread, and felt it was worth giving the claim a night. I suggest we might want to move the wagon back to Moon Cancer, he agrees, and at that moment he alt-slips in the game thread and I have a meltdown in the PT.
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Post Post #2433 (ISO) » Tue Jul 27, 2021 4:13 pm

Post by Servant Alter Ego »

And I just want to add on: if you think I kill Berserker with this volume of content in the hood where I pass on opportunities to push town wagons and drive scum ones instead, you're out of your mind. If you think I kill him to fabricate this level of detail and specificity, you're also insane. Realistically the only reason there's been any consideration I could be scum today is because Berserker is dead and none of the hood content can be verified. I literally never kill him as mafia here.
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Post Post #2434 (ISO) » Tue Jul 27, 2021 4:14 pm

Post by Servant Beast »

I really don't think we need more hood stuff. Nobody doubts that you were hooded with Berserker.

Pedit:
@Alter, get on Cabd's level. He had like a 35 page PT of fake solve with Dunnstrall in Tenet.
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Post Post #2435 (ISO) » Tue Jul 27, 2021 4:18 pm

Post by Servant Beast »

Though yes, I mostly just think it's Rider. @_@. I am unhappy that you made that case on me.
Also, if we're playing the confidence game, why would I ever kill Archer. He pretty much killed all my partners and was town reading me. Nobody could have argued against it and I had active threats against me with players that were widely or roughly equivalently town read.
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Post Post #2436 (ISO) » Tue Jul 27, 2021 4:20 pm

Post by Servant Rider »

If there's worthwhile analysis to share, I don't mind the hood stuff.
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Post Post #2437 (ISO) » Tue Jul 27, 2021 4:20 pm

Post by Servant Alter Ego »

I feel like it's important to try to show the thinking that was going on behind the scenes and my progression on players, because there were multiple times where I could have pushed him to wagon a town player instead of a scum player, and I didn't do that.

You know what's notable about Cabd's hood with Dunnstral?
He didn't kill him after putting in all that effort.
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Post Post #2438 (ISO) » Tue Jul 27, 2021 4:23 pm

Post by Servant Alter Ego »

In post 2435, Servant Beast wrote:Though yes, I mostly just think it's Rider. @_@. I am unhappy that you made that case on me.
Also, if we're playing the confidence game, why would I ever kill Archer. He pretty much killed all my partners and was town reading me. Nobody could have argued against it and I had active threats against me with players that were widely or roughly equivalently town read.
Archer was un-eliminatable after his main scumreads were correct, and could easily have been a valuable PR (and as it turns out, his jailkeep might have been a difference-maker, had he lived). He was also an active and vocal leader who proved willing to be dynamic in his evaluation of the game. Gamma-zerker was...not that.
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Post Post #2439 (ISO) » Tue Jul 27, 2021 4:27 pm

Post by Servant Lancer »

I read through some ISOs and still townread alter, so the elimination is still between rider & beast for me.

I don't think I have the energy to do a full wallpost, but here are some highlights:
- moon cancer had alter at the bottom of his readslist forever. alter stayed as the top scumread even when moon cancer changed the order of his readslist almost completely to fit what I felt like was the general consensus/read momentum.
Spoiler:
In post 226, Servant Moon Cancer wrote:Archer
Saber
Shielder,Lancer,Rider,Ruler,Avenger,Foreigner
Caster,Beast
Berserker
Assassin
Alter Ego

VOTE: Saber
In post 462, Servant Moon Cancer wrote:Archer
Ruler
Beast,Caster,Berserker
Shielder,Lancer,Rider,Avenger,Assassin
Saber
Foreigner
Alter Ego

VOTE: Servant Berserker

- no way moon cancer just puts all of his buddies in the POE??
Spoiler:
In post 464, Servant Moon Cancer wrote:
In post 463, Servant Berserker wrote:
In post 226, Servant Moon Cancer wrote:Archer
Saber
Shielder,Lancer,Rider,Ruler,Avenger,Foreigner
Caster,Beast
Berserker
Assassin
Alter Ego

VOTE: Saber
In post 462, Servant Moon Cancer wrote:Archer
Ruler
Beast,Caster,Berserker
Shielder,Lancer,Rider,Avenger,Assassin
Saber
Foreigner
Alter Ego

VOTE: Servant Berserker
It seems like your entire readslist has flipped, can you explain what changed for each of-
Saber, Ruler, Beast, Caster, me, Assassin, and Foreigner?
A night of sleep and a fresh look at my reads.
Servant Ruler gave great reasons for many people. Ruler is terribly wrong on Ego, and the reasons for the reads on Ego, Rider and Lancer are too weak for me.
With these three, Saber, Foreigner and Alter Ego the rest of my reads indeed flipped. My reason to scumread Berserker was not as good as I thought yesterday. Caster looks more and more like a townie stumbling in the dark. Ruler is conditional on Saber and Foreigner being scum, but I believe that the POE of {Alter Ego, Foreigner, Saber} has three scum. That obviously leaves one scum but I am sure we can find that one eventually.

- same reaction as me to Avenger's gladiate in real time. I don't think the emotion and frustration from alter was faked because I was feeling the exact same things.
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Post Post #2440 (ISO) » Tue Jul 27, 2021 4:30 pm

Post by Servant Beast »

In post 2438, Servant Alter Ego wrote:
In post 2435, Servant Beast wrote:Though yes, I mostly just think it's Rider. @_@. I am unhappy that you made that case on me.
Also, if we're playing the confidence game, why would I ever kill Archer. He pretty much killed all my partners and was town reading me. Nobody could have argued against it and I had active threats against me with players that were widely or roughly equivalently town read.
Archer was un-eliminatable after his main scumreads were correct, and could easily have been a valuable PR (and as it turns out, his jailkeep might have been a difference-maker, had he lived). He was also an active and vocal leader who proved willing to be dynamic in his evaluation of the game. Gamma-zerker was...not that.
Nope, an ally would have been a lot more important there, you're arguing post-facto why it was a good kill from my perspective, I wouldn't have known what their abilities were, which from my perspective there would have been a whole lot of people that I also didn't know the abilities of, you, lancer, who were much less charitable in their interpretations of me.
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Post Post #2441 (ISO) » Tue Jul 27, 2021 4:31 pm

Post by Servant Rider »

I have some doubts on Beast being scum.

But I'm still struggling to see Alter Ego being scum. And if they're town, I feel like them having to go to the lengths they've gone through to explain themselves is a bit of a travesty with how they've played this game.
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Post Post #2442 (ISO) » Tue Jul 27, 2021 4:33 pm

Post by Servant Beast »

And were also confirmed from my perspective. Lancer would have been shot last night, not archer and it would have remained that way based on my kills. Since I have sole power over my kills. You continue to argue that my arguments aren't enough for why I'm not scum. But the fact that there are a million reasons why it isn't me and the one that really still gets me, is the one where you argued that I spoke to my buddies in thread about how they were creating associations on me because it would make me look town to do so. @_@
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Post Post #2443 (ISO) » Tue Jul 27, 2021 4:34 pm

Post by Servant Lancer »

Alter's reaction to notsci trolling us at the master flip also felt genuine

not that I think it matters much at this point but I also found what I think is decent evidence for caster and assassin to be town, I'm falling asleep on my keyboard so more posts will have to wait until tomorrow if those reasons are needed.
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Post Post #2444 (ISO) » Tue Jul 27, 2021 4:36 pm

Post by Servant Beast »

Please, no more voodoo with reads list placement from a player that dedicated entire posts just so they could have a reads list to be looked back on to fool the town. :facepalm:
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Post Post #2445 (ISO) » Tue Jul 27, 2021 4:37 pm

Post by Servant Rider »

In post 2420, Servant Lancer wrote:
In post 2418, Servant Rider wrote:Why would I just wait to stop bussing on Day 2 then?
I don't know what this means
If I'm scum, why do I devote my energy to bussing my partners or letting their eliminations happen and then suddenly decide Day 2 was the time to flip the script and hard defend my buddy.

Aside from Moon Cancer, the flipped scum's roles were trash.
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Post Post #2446 (ISO) » Tue Jul 27, 2021 4:39 pm

Post by Servant Rider »

Also, I was more than happy to flip to Saber off of Foreigner and was actually the catalyst that brought it up to Alter Ego. So what is my scum motivation there?
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Post Post #2447 (ISO) » Tue Jul 27, 2021 4:39 pm

Post by Servant Rider »

Moon Cancer*
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Post Post #2448 (ISO) » Tue Jul 27, 2021 4:47 pm

Post by Servant Beast »

In post 2441, Servant Rider wrote:
I have some doubts on Beast being scum.

But I'm still struggling to see Alter Ego being scum. And if they're town, I feel like them having to go to the lengths they've gone through to explain themselves is a bit of a travesty with how they've played this game.
Voice them.

I'm primarily confused why both of you are arguing so hard when one of you knows that none of this matters because Assassin will probably find some way to confirm the player they visit tonight.
This game has been very confusing also, just in general, the scum team was insane, even ignoring Alter, all of the scum team were bussing each other.
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Post Post #2449 (ISO) » Tue Jul 27, 2021 4:51 pm

Post by Servant Rider »

Assassin already said they can just be nightkilled. It's a bit of a killjoy really. I'm a little depressed they even brought it up.

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