FGO: Mafia in the Lostbelt - 2 Game Over

[Servant Beast]

Why would I just wait to stop bussing on Day 2 then?

I don't know what this means

If I'm scum, why do I devote my energy to bussing my partners or letting their eliminations happen and then suddenly decide Day 2 was the time to flip the script and hard defend my buddy.

Aside from Moon Cancer, the flipped scum's roles were trash.

Also, I was more than happy to flip to Saber off of Foreigner and was actually the catalyst that brought it up to Alter Ego. So what is my scum motivation there?

I don't have a good answer as to why either of you bussed so hard. If one of us is scum, and that's probable, than the last scum was on at least 2 of the scum wagons and pushed fairly convincingly for each.

@Rider, if they visit town they can probably tell them something. It's going to be very difficult for the scum player to fake having been visited by Assassin.

[Servant Rider]

Why would I point out how hard my scum partners were being bussed by my scum partners before anyone else had voiced this concern btw?
I'm genuinely curious why you think I would frame the game that way.

This is the post that I'm struggling with.

I did voice some concerns in 2367. If Alter Ego responded to it, I missed it.

[Servant Beast]

Pretty much if Assassin's ability is real and we miseliminate today Assassin will hopefully crunch out a way to to tilt the win in town's favor on his death in the night PT.

If they visited scum, the town's person will know they weren't visited and they can very convincingly (I hope) argue that they didn't visit them so the other player must have been visited and they would, likely not be able to justify having been visited nad leave a message.
I tend to think when town is dead certain that scum is scum, they tend to win the 1v1.Maybe I'm just being an optimist.

[Servant Beast]

Thanks for acknowledging how ridiculous that is, even if you are scum Rider. It makes me feel better.

*sigh*

[Servant Rider]

I do my best.

[Servant Rider]

I'm pretty sure Assassin said scum would still receive an invitation.

[Servant Beast]

They get the invite, but they wouldn't be able to (unless Alter is getting his practice in, LOL) fake the conversation so most likely they would just deny getting the invite and they would certainly kill Assassin in most situations.

[Servant Rider]

I asked if this was auto win and people told me no.

[Servant Beast]

Well yeah, because if Assassin visits scum both the town and the scum player will deny it and it's gunna be up to the town player to convincingly argue that the fact of the matter was that Assassin visited the other player and they're lying.

That's the most plausible scenario or probably the lowest -EV in this situation. If Assassin visits town though it's going to be very difficult for the scum player to argue against that.

[Servant Beast]

Part of me thinks that Alter weighed the costs and benefits of who to kill today and who he would rather be in elo with and just slap-dashed together a case.
I have enough activity and wim that if Assassin visited me the entire town would know it.

[Servant Rider]

@Rider, it is almost autowin. Sadly scum have a single out. They accept the invitation, then kill me in the night, so I never get the chance to tell the town if a PT was created.

Unless this person tells me it's autowin, I have no reason to treat it as such.

[Servant Beast]

Yes, I just said it isn't auto-win but it's just hard for the scum player to win if they don't get visited. It's uphill, but not impossible.

[Servant Rider]

I'm primarily confused why both of you are arguing so hard when one of you knows that none of this matters because Assassin will probably find some way to confirm the player they visit tonight.

What's the point of this conversation?

"I don't know why you're playing so hard when it's basically won."

"It's not autowin."

?????????????

[Servant Beast]

Because if town does get visited the scum player is fucked and even if they do get visited it will be difficult. It's demotivating. I'm not sure why neither of you are demotivated.

[Servant Rider]

That's not what you said. You didn't ask why we were demotivated. You asked us why we were arguing so hard.

[Servant Rider]

Oh I misread that. Why do you want us to be demotivated?

[Servant Rider]

Also I very clearly said it was a bit of a killjoy so ???

[Servant Beast]

Yes, because I would assume one of you would be demotivated and it would come off with unenthusiastic arguments and reduced wim.

[Servant Rider]

Yes, I've had some bouts of unenthusiasm. But I don't understand why you think that means one of just gives up.

Have you given up? Are you scum for not giving up? If not, then ?????

[Servant Beast]

Also I very clearly said it was a bit of a killjoy so ???

A little I guess, I mostly think it puts us in a better place than we would otherwise be because it adds another coin flip scum has to win.

[Servant Beast]

Yes, I've had some bouts of unenthusiasm. But I don't understand why you think that means one of just gives up.

Have you given up? Are you scum for not giving up? If not, then ?????

I can't really answer this question without getting into the weeds of my mindset which could alt out me. Sorry.
Suffice to say, that I'm just applying what I might be feeling in scum's position to you and wondering why one of you (which is likely to be scum) isn't feeling that way.

[Servant Beast]

I guess it might just be that it's alter who hard bussed all game and because they're in a fantastic position to win all those coin flips they have little reason to despair. But maybe I'm just jealous that they were the better scum hunter this game.
I still think they're more likely to be town than you.

[Servant Rider]

Considering I'm scheduled to flip first and you're screwed either way, joke's gonna be on you regardless of your alignment.

[Servant Alter Ego]

I also ask at that point in time, in light of notscience's scumread on Beast, whether he outs that clear on Shielder at the moment he did. I felt at that point in time that Shielder was obvious burn-bait if they were town due to their low level of contribution. The fact that it was a hard roleclaim seemed to me like an utterly insane and possibly game-losing gambit for scum to make at the time.

Do you still believe this? Or has your stance on this changed?

I mentioned it as a point in my breakdown, I believe. I feel like it'd be a strange move for scum. But at this point it's not an easy decision for me regardless. And I don't think it outweighs my other suspicions. In fact, it raises questions of plausible balance. Given what we now know of Assassin's role and Lancer's role, it's possible town could have had 4 clears on day 2 if Beast's claim is true. Does that make sense as being plausibly balanced? It doesn't to me.

[Servant Alter Ego]

Part of me thinks that Alter weighed the costs and benefits of who to kill today and who he would rather be in elo with and just slap-dashed together a case.
I have enough activity and wim that if Assassin visited me the entire town would know it.

I guess it might just be that it's alter who hard bussed all game and because they're in a fantastic position to win all those coin flips they have little reason to despair. But maybe I'm just jealous that they were the better scum hunter this game.
I still think they're more likely to be town than you.

It feels like you're keeping yourself open to both angles here. First post would seem to suggest you think it's me, but then you go back on it in the second post and say you think it's more likely to be Rider.