FGO: Mafia in the Lostbelt - 2 Game Over

[Servant Rider]

I mentioned it as a point in my breakdown, I believe. I feel like it'd be a strange move for scum. But at this point it's not an easy decision for me regardless. And I don't think it outweighs my other suspicions. In fact, it raises questions of plausible balance. Given what we now know of Assassin's role and Lancer's role, it's possible town could have had 4 clears on day 2 if Beast's claim is true. Does that make sense as being plausibly balanced? It doesn't to me.

I agree that this seems to be a bit overkill. And I feel like I mentioned this on Day 2 when I said I didn't think the game was capable of producing this many clears. Especially considering how the previous game seemed to be a townstomp.

I feel like I already know how this game is going to play out. Right now I'm leaning towards Beast being the remaining scum, and I'm fine being eliminated if that's what others really want.

I also don't feel like posting until Lancer comes back as we've been burning a lot of pages and there aren't many left before we exhaust ourselves.

[Servant Beast]

@Rider: I'll be fine. hopefully this town is good enough to see that I'm town in elo since I go ballistic there. But hopefully, I won't have to wear myself down. fwiw I am sorry for misreading you if you're town Rider. But Altar just bussed like a champ quite convincingly. Most of their play errors has to do with going over the top if they're scum and that's a compliment really.

@Alter, I'm pretty sure I have multiple posts saying this. Also, not really, it's more of a flight of fancy, obviously, I've been weighing a bunch of different narratives with varying explanatory power for you scum or Rider scum.
I find the ones for Rider scum are more convincing. But it's hard to argue with process of elimination. If Rider isn't scum, you are (barring unfortunate role issues) assuming Assassin dies. If they don't die, this'll be fun.

If they do, good match I'll try to show why you're scum and convince the other players in the game that you are.

I don't really know how this is going to go down until Rider or you flip.

[Servant Rider]

Beast, I don't understand who you really think is scum since you seem to be arguing against both of us.

It's also part of why I'm not huge on you being town here. Because I feel like you're mostly playing for two flips.

[Servant Beast]

I actually haven't been preparing that much for the possibility of Altar scum, I never made a real case against them, mostly, I've made cases for town them.

I think it's fairly clear that I think you're scum Rider and that I prefer your elimination. But that doesn't mean I'm not going to weigh the possibility that I'm wrong.

But I also know that all that matters is that I'm town and that if I convince the rest of the town of this then town wins 100% of the time (assuming one of you two is scum) regardless of who we flip first. I'm taking the long view and I haven't said anything to contradict that. I'm speaking very frankly.

[Servant Caster]

I am officially worried : (

[Servant Beast]

About?

[Servant Beast]

There are four pages left btw. I don't really mind it. We've collectively done enough today (or at least, I have. I've tried a lot this day phase, though, I wish I had spent more time hunting and less time arguing why I'm not scum, but I can't really justify the elegant approach when there's a much more simple way to win by just killing one town and one scum and dragging the town across the finish line, it's kind of cheese but, meh).

[Servant Beast]

Btw, I won't be able to post for about 12 hours or more due to a family thing.
Have a good one.

[Servant Caster]

I feel like it's important to try to show the thinking that was going on behind the scenes and my progression on players, because there were multiple times where I could have pushed him to wagon a town player instead of a scum player, and I didn't do that.

You know what's notable about Cabd's hood with Dunnstral? He didn't kill him after putting in all that effort.

He didn't kill Dunnstral because Dunnstral was a potential Mis-Elim, He had Dunnstral doing whatever he wanted Dunnstral to do, and also because every nightkill on that side of the board was already spoken for.

Cabd did kill Ffery/Bork as soon as Bork turned on him in their hood together despite all of his efforts to fake solve.

I guess I just don't understand why you got that mad at Foreigner.

Even when he was making the worst cases on me I still didn't feel any kind of anger at him? I snapped at him a few times but nothing to the level you did when he couldn't come up with a claim despite having days.

The emotions make sense if you are trying to help him but he is too lazy in your opinion to even try.

[Servant Alter Ego]

I feel like it's important to try to show the thinking that was going on behind the scenes and my progression on players, because there were multiple times where I could have pushed him to wagon a town player instead of a scum player, and I didn't do that.

You know what's notable about Cabd's hood with Dunnstral? He didn't kill him after putting in all that effort.

He didn't kill Dunnstral because Dunnstral was a potential Mis-Elim, He had Dunnstral doing whatever he wanted Dunnstral to do, and also because every nightkill on that side of the board was already spoken for.

Cabd did kill Ffery/Bork as soon as Bork turned on him in their hood together despite all of his efforts to fake solve.

I guess I just don't understand why you got that mad at Foreigner.

Even when he was making the worst cases on me I still didn't feel any kind of anger at him? I snapped at him a few times but nothing to the level you did when he couldn't come up with a claim despite having days.

The emotions make sense if you are trying to help him but he is too lazy in your opinion to even try.

I looked back at the sequence in full. I said if he's town, he deserved to die for being worthless. He gave me a reply about "do it a few more times and enjoy your loss". That made me think, in that moment, he was the type of player who acts in a willfully obstinate way as town, simply because they don't like to do things when people ask them to. I've encountered that archetype a lot before. And in that moment I thought he was town who had sabotaged us out of stubbornness.

You're reading far too much into posts from someone who was already dead and flipping scum. Everything he said at that point is just wine. Plus, if I were in a PT with him...I'd just bitch him out for not claiming there, rather than here. The theory it'd "spill over" is silly.

[Servant Alter Ego]

And regarding the point about the kill, you'd have to believe Berserker had turned on me but only did so in the hood he shared with me, and not in yours, or

in the open game thread he was allowed to post in.

That's just wildly implausible.

To be frank it's borderline insulting you'd think I'd kill the potato IC I had a hood with over someone like you.

[Servant Alter Ego]

I wish you'd talk to me more.

[Servant Caster]

what would you like me to talk to you about? ^,^

I guess I am just overly paranoid by nature.

[Servant Beast]

And regarding the point about the kill, you'd have to believe Berserker had turned on me but only did so in the hood he shared with me, and not in yours, or

in the open game thread he was allowed to post in.

That's just wildly implausible.

To be frank it's borderline insulting you'd think I'd kill the potato IC I had a hood with over someone like you.

1. No, it isn't. They placed no suspicion on you until the day phase and this clearly came out of left field for you.

2. Also off the top of my head I can think of at least 10 games I've been in where a scum player avoided conflict in their scum PT when they had a disagreement with their partners or didn't like their play (or were frustrated with their activity levels) and instead passive aggressively insulted their play in thread and bussed. It's really common, you should know that, you seem fairly experienced at mafia. /:

Now, there are very good points for why you aren't mafia Alter, everything from Mooncancer being a really bad first player to bus given their power (even though they were viewed the most negatively, but as mentioned they were mega bussed with multiple town not on their wagon so I still dunno wtf happened there). But passive aggressively calling your partner a shit head in thread because they're too meek to discuss it with them in thread is a time-honored tradition of us awkward types everywhere.

[Servant Alter Ego]

what would you like me to talk to you about? ^,^

I guess I am just overly paranoid by nature.

Well, I asked you about the "pocketed me again" comment you made, because I didn't understand what you meant.

But aside from the Foreigner twilight posts, walk me through why you think it's me? I know you thought I was being sideliney earlier because my activity dropped, do you still have an issue now that I've gotten through rereading?

[Servant Alter Ego]

1. No, it isn't. They placed no suspicion on you until the day phase and this clearly came out of left field for you.

I'm not referring to her suspicion of me. I'm referring to the fact that she's clearly a sharper and more invested player than whoever was occupying the Berserker slot at the time. This is a completely underhanded interpretation of what I was saying.

2. Also off the top of my head I can think of at least 10 games I've been in where a scum player avoided conflict in their scum PT when they had a disagreement with their partners or didn't like their play (or were frustrated with their activity levels) and instead passive aggressively insulted their play in thread and bussed. It's really common, you should know that, you seem fairly experienced at mafia. /:

I'm hardly aware of such.

[Servant Alter Ego]

I've certainly cussed out teammates in the PT plenty of times before, though. In my experience people tend to keep things cleaner on the surface in the main thread even if there's a disagreement outside. But that's my experience vs. yours

[Servant Beast]

1. It's underhanded to say it was a borderline insult when it clearly wasn't.

2. Well, I am. I'm sure other players can chime in on their own experiences or just the general social difficulties of team chatter. People are polite, often times they feel awkward asking their partners to play better or do things a certain way. Passive in thread snipes are not uncommon (this is not the same thing as asking them why they're planting associatives on them in thread, and clearly, I don't have an issue with being forthright with people which is its own bag of annoyances when people have to deal with me, but there you go).

[Servant Beast]

Like, I get it, "how dumb do you think I really am?" hell that's kinda townie as a response. But yeah.
Actually, scum do that. A lot. Dead weight is dead weight. smh and if there's a game that's going to result in being paranoid mafia is it.

....Also, it's kind of cute how you're complimenting them with your backhand. though, I don't really get it. Given the context of the rest of the post.

My position hasn't changed, your argument that I'm scum is disappointing and hopefully you're not scum that just knows who they should kill first during the day phase (for a lot of reasons),
but it's probably just Rider and I'd like to move forward with that.

[Servant Assassin]

Man, it's so sick.

I simply cannot read any of Beast/Alter/Rider as scum at all. Holistically you guys just look all town to me. Basically all the +ev's in Alter's assessment of both Rider/Beast to me are really strong ++++s compared to the minuses. The same could be said for Alter though no one did the +- ev thing for them (I just have a good idea in my own headspace).

Not that scum is necessarily incapable of it, but the sheer amount of critical thinking / solve Alter has displayed over the game makes it very unlikely that they are scum to me. I can't support that elimination.

Between rider and beast, I think overall Rider's posts are a bit more nuanced when they proactively analyze and form reads. There's definitely a few misses. For example reading that last interaction with Lancer is just flat-out wrong. Beast isn't uncapable either, but maybe it's just the snark mixed in that dilutes it occasionally for me here and there.

The biggest mitigating factor for me would be the fact that Beast effectively cleared Caster when I guarantee they would have been a juicy mis-elimination target for scum right now. Perhaps not a 100% clear that people wouldn't bypass but its a hard play to make if you're going to proabably fight ego/rider. Then again, Caster clearing me in that scenario might not have been expected. And I definitely was on the menu too until then.

I'm really sorry if people find this rather paltry summary not cutting it, but I really don't have amazing insights to point to to clear or condemn anyone. We are running out of time and I want to get my NP out efficiently and as effectively as possible. I would like Lancer to basically pick the elimination out of rider/beast while I NP the other. I truly am sorry for whoever gets the boot (even if you're scum!) because you guys really knocked it out of the park.

[Servant Beast]

That's fine Assassin, I kind of felt that this was going to be your approach for the day phase. (except for the part where you plan to visit me, that I did not expect. But I am extremely happy to prove town and make this easier on all of us by crunching out a way that you unambiguously visited me. Well, hopefully this won't matter.

You need to target one of us during the day phase yeah?

@Lancer: Please choose Rider. I'm town. *puppy dog eyes*

[Servant Lancer]

@assassin how much time do I have?

[Servant Assassin]

Realistically 12-24 hours.

This is what will happen.

Once the concensus is made I will post and then submit my target.
Cabd will deliver the invite asap to my target.
Target will need to post they received the invite and immediately accept.
Cabd will tell me asap if the target accepted or declined the invite.
I will post confirming if the invite was accepted or declined.

Hopefully this process will not take long and we will have time to adjust if something funky happens.

[Servant Beast]

How can I help you make the right decision Lancer?

[Servant Caster]

Well, I asked you about the "pocketed me again" comment you made, because I didn't understand what you meant.

But aside from the Foreigner twilight posts, walk me through why you think it's me? I know you thought I was being sideliney earlier because my activity dropped, do you still have an issue now that I've gotten through rereading?

Well I had hard townbinned you initially because I just liked the vibe of your posts and you've been fairly good at driving bad guy elimwagons and your reactions are so

good

Then I got the feeling today you were trying to avoid the conflict and let Rider/Beast just rip each other apart, and on an initial skim I found that exchange you had with foreigner kind of strange due to the emotional anger both of you threw at each other.

So I began re-reading your ISO for clues post by post and ended up feeling pocketed again, hence why I said you pocketed me again.

I guess the aggression both Beast/Rider had towards each other felt

more town

for me than you fence-sitting?

I'd think if there was someone on the scum team doing the hard-bus/deepwolf and could pull of the win it would be you?