Mini Normal 2223 | Town Wins!

[Dwlee99]

Both scum could be off the wagon but t3 didn't put who isn't voting in his vote counts and I don't feel like cross checking the lkst

[Dwlee99]

I think we should look at who avoided the wagon for questionable reasons

[MathBlade]

How is it bad to have my top townreads as you Kyo and omo? I didn't include the conftown there for brevity's sake

You identified the problem now.

I don’t know if I buy the excuse now but that’s sus as fuck.

It's weird to say it was for brevity's sake, imo you exclude them because it is implied they are part of the townblock as conftown. I dont see this as a reason to SR Dwlee though.

I'm no longer doubting Math, now when considering Marci's DGB vote. I also think scum!Marci is TMIing her partners in RVS if it's {DGB, Marci, Salsabil}.

Titus was also suspicious of Dwlee/omo as a unit I feel like, though she did associate omo and Math, with omo being more likely. I think it's clear her Babysit was meant to be insurance to kill a scumread in the event of her death. I think scum!Math and scum!Dwlee might have been more careful in case Titus targeted one of them. I don't think the scumteam felt they were at risk of being targeted.

That really leaves 2 of Marci, Salsabil, N_M

I think Titus was a forced kill last night.

N1 they weren’t sure of what Titus and I were trying to communicate so they didn’t know who she would likely protect. So they shot Roden who was massively townread and probably just a townreads kill.

N2 Titus becomes a forced kill and with their vote on Owo not picking up traction it’s a safe kill.

I don’t think NKA gets us far unfortunately. I think it’s going to be a purely day play thing.

What do you mean by forced kill? Why were scum forced into it?

Okay maybe there's credibility to the Salsa/Marci solve if Salsa is going to say we are both suspicious and then vote me.

Yeah probably lmao. That's definitely sus. I've also never seen town!Salsabil give up the way she did D1 when she self-voted. She usually shows more effort, and she tends to ping me early when she's town.

And you gain a Townie dead? Until I conclusively find your partner that sort of question is kinda silly. If it’s you and Dwlee you gain a day to give them some breathing room. You and Salsa means that Salsa isn’t forced to give more content.

The what you gain is dependent on your partner.

ssbm_kyouko considered me part of their townblock thing

what do i gain from making a scummy hammer, and ruining my chances at that townblock..?
if i was scum surely i would want to milk the townblock for all it worth, hmm?

sacrificing how towny i seem, just to get a townie miselimed and then be sused right after is not a move i would make

Maybe you didnt know it was a hammer and wanted to get on with the wagon I was leading for appearances. Or it's just WIFOM.

argh, this feels like scm trying to direct a vote. We are too close to losing and too many people making bets on tomorrow if someone doesn't flip scum today.

I still want to look at Math from Day 1

but then ssbm_Kyouko + marcistar on both wagons.

not mafia just dodging the game.

known town roles are

me - informed child
titus - babysitter
manatee - friendly neighbour

that is it so far right?

Yes, speaking of roles, Dwlee beat me to it:

We should probably mass claim today BTW

We should mass claim, from the bottom up, since we're probably 1 ME away from MELO.
Salsa/Marci/N_M
Dwlee
Me/MathBlade

I think the exact order doesnt matter as long as we follow these tiers. Manatee/geraintm, would either of you reorder these tiers?

Regarding Dwlee by asking specific questions you can see what their thought process is. I don’t buy their explanation because they included the dead. If you’re excluding the conf town for expediency surely you don’t include the dead for expediency. So if Dwlee is town then they’re being careless and not watching for finer points and if they’re scum they aren’t thinking in terms of town blocks. Either way it gives me something. If Dwlee later starts becoming hyper careful that’s in contrast to the carelessness earlier.

Regarding the forced kill this is something you hinted at early. Titus literally was a ticking time bomb because she is town. I believe (redacted) about claims because of my experience on MS so answering this further means I run the risk of scum doing (redacted thing) so I would rather wait to finish answering this in completeness until my turn to claim. There’s a potential for a scum claim possibly so I would rather wait.

[MathBlade]

Votecount:

• MaxTheFox (6): omo, Dwlee99, ManateeDude, Salsabil Faria, ssbm_Kyouko, marcistar
  omo (2): MaxTheFox, Titus
  Salsabil Faria (1): MathBlade

Day 2 will end in (expired on 2021-08-02 11:22:01).
With 11 alive, it takes 6 to eliminate.

Spoiler: Votes Since Last Votecount

VOTE: Owo
I think I like my vote here based on day play and will help me figure out if we are in scum Owo land or if we are in town Owo land which then has drastic consequences for the game as a whole imho

In fact,

VOTE: owo

Feel more confident here than Dwlee atm.

I said im lurking. salsa what r ur thoughts on max rn? you lay down a vote but im curious how serious it was

Said already, I think her lurking in this game is scum indicative, the vote on her is moderately serious. Like

Math

, I also think now we have at least one deepwolf (considering both

Dwlee

and

OMO

are town).

u said u think im town, so who does that leave as the deepwolf?
"considering both dwlee and omo are town" how do you know that..?

What if it’s

Max

and

geraintm

? 2 lurkers

i do think geraintm has a decent chance of being scum here, but max im kinda unsure on.

pedit: these wagons are giving me the spooks. omo and dwlee voting together, and Max and Salsa voting together, cross-voting
TvS wagons I think.

i dont think scum would wanna wagon together so openly. do you think they would?

1-5 Maricstar omo dynamic is interesting. Marci might be a wagon to save owo.

didn't think of this originally.

Looking at this VC here, assuming Titus town, I know I am town, then if there is scum in the wagon it is in Marci/Kyo/owo if the wagons are TvT as I suspect then a Marci Kyo wagon pops up again. I coulda sworn Kyo was the first voter on DGB though I am going to have to reread that.

i voted drippinggoofballs slot early on (i think in the first few pages..? not sure exactly) and just never moved off.


- -

out of 1333s vc,
i dont think owo would be a good move, they've felt generally towny to me this game.

max is a good vote, im not sure if i exactly trust theyre vt rn.
so is dwlee, they could be doing a lot more but they aren't doing much.

i really really really want geraintm today to give us stuff, they better not slide by like a slipperly snake

VOTE: Salsabil Faria

Hey Titus, how do you feel about flash wagon part two?

Marci brings up a good point and if y’all are all town and I am just paranoid then Faria is just buddying the shit out of me and I am wrong.

Didn't catch up fully but my reads are formed, might as well.

Weird bc I've been doing more discussion than you have. Sounds like youre your own obstacle to getting into discussion and you're projecting that onto me

Also what you claim isnt proof that is my intent nor does your analysis look at intent. Happy to dunk you if you keep this up.

What discussion have you been doing until page 10? Most of your posts up to that point were, as I said, question-dodges. What town intent could this possibly have? But honestly it's early and I'm not locking onto you yet. Do better.

Reads:

TOWN BIN

MaxTheFox - I'm town.
Salsabil - good tone and trying to solve the game early = town in my eyes.

TOWN LEAN

Saudade - at first I didn't like their tone but I don't really see scum being likely to be so nonchalant, if that's the right word.
Manatee - gut read. Trust me on this.
Not_Mafia - yes he is a troll but at the same time it looks like he's actually contributing and trying to solve. Unlike the other Miltank avatar in the game...

NULL

Everyone else, expect another list later in day 1 when there is more content.

SCUM LEAN

omo - trolled in an useless way, dodged questions, picked up the slack in the last page which is why I'm not binning them as scum,
DGB (Looker) - another gut read. I'll let DGB post before voting them though.

SCUM BIN

Nobody yet.

Reads (this is sorted within tiers):

TOWN BIN

MaxTheFox - I'm town.
MathBlade (this was Saudade) - his attempts at solving earn him a lot of good boy points.
Salsabil - kept up the good tone.

TOWN LEAN

Manatee - gut read remains.
Not_Mafia - read stayed.
Dwlee - 50% meta read on this, dubious, I'm not locked onto this in any way.

NULL

marcistar - barely there. Lurker.
ssbm - just generally doesn't ping me as

anything

.
Titus - same.

SCUM LEAN

geraintm - suggested no-lim day 1 which is usually considered a bad idea. Also lurking.

SCUM BIN

omo - see the previous list, except their accusation of a scumclaim is serious now apparently.

---

It's easier for me to townread than scumread people, I found.

Weewooweewoo sound the alarms
VOTE: Max

In actuality I skimmed her iso in the other games she posted and I think this is clearly scum!Max.

VOTE: maxthefox

I think it’s very antitown to look off wagon here unless you’re policying Not Mafia

The people who were off wagon (who are still alive) are me, Not Mafia, and G

G is confirmed town
Not mafia was inactive for most of the day
And me who defending Max the entire time.

Even if we assume Not Mafia scum unless you’re assuming a Me+Not Mafia team (something I know to be false) then we know there is scum on Max’s wagon and it’s where we should look.

[MathBlade]

I have to go back to work but I really want to see more from Manatee and G here. These two should be collaborating like masons in thread here and the game thread is their PT.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Also @geraintm, regarding myself and Marci being on both wagons:
Marci had been parked on Looker since RVS and when questioned by Roden about who she scumreads and why she was voting Looker/DGB still, she said of the 4 left over in her poe {geraintm, Manatee, Dwlee, DGB}, that Dwlee and DGB were who she would want to vote, but that she would feel bad voting Dwlee. That was her explanation for having an RVS-stage vote still on DGB. What's interesting though is even though the vote was placed during RVS, it is based on an actual scumread. I feel like Marci, partnered with Looker, was hyper-aware of her teammate and spotted something scummy by Looker and TMIed by locking her vote on him/his replacement DGB all day.

I think Math is right that when the wagon started very suddenly that Marci had no time to escape the wagon, because it would be suspicious that she was on DGB all day when there was no pressure, and suddenly when there was pressure, she moved off. Especially if someone else joined and DGB was hammered anyways.

With the context of the votes, I would not consider Marci as part of the voting block that was running up wagons on multiple players throughout D1 and landed on DGB. Yes she was on the end of day wagon, but not for good reason.

[T3]

The prod timer resets during the night and will be clarified in the OP.

[ManateeDude]

im really struggling with gamestate right now so im just going to give my thoughts on everyone so its out there and work towards a solve from there.

Not_Mafia - a lot of my feelings around his slot hinged around the belief that max was scum, so i feel a lot of those processes were disrupted with the green flip. i do think the post kyo made abt n_m noting saudade is ++ in town points for him but i'll be the first one to admit i have absolutely no clue how to read him. im tempted to default town for now, as i dont think flipping him anytime soon does us any favours. verdict: ????????????

MathBlade - generic strong townread /shrug i feel like whenever i explain my townreads it ends up being something regurgitated along the lines of "i like their thought process" which IS what it boils down to,,, i feel like im reading him on a very surface level and most have been happy to pass out townreads. posing dwlees lack of conftown in the block as something inherently scummy is weird to say the least, but thats the only thing i've really found myself disagreeing with after a brief iso skim. i DO think that MB is the most likely deepwolf here based on his ability to kind of skate along grabbing up townreads and i feel myself getting dwlees aforementioned heebie jeebies regarding his slot. verdict: probably town or the tiny voice in my head is right

geraint - verdict: town

dwlee - hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm. a quick iso revist prompts a lot of things i dont like, and at times i wonder how they stick out like a sore thumb so much and havent drawn an elimination. i do think maintaining their possible wolf view on kyo is a good sign, as at this point in the game scum is actively digging themselves in a hole to state that process. i think their heebie jeebies regarding kyo are genuine if misguided. i dont think they r a good elimination at all today, though if we get a green flip i wouldn't mind revisiting him tmrw if im alive. aditionally dwlee doesnt have as much teammate equity w DGB or any other potential suspects in comparison to a marci or salsa. i also dont know much abt dwlee specifically but i doubt they choose to protest DGB elimination with no backing and would be of the opinion bussing is the better option at that point. verdict: sorting pile for later

ssbm - verdict: town

i'll talk abt marci and salsa after ive made and served dinner for my family but i'd like it if everyone gave at the very least a basic readslist

[geraintm]

@manatee - why is ssbm town so certain tonyou?

I am hoping for a good entrance from not mafia.

People expecting me to lead today....I don't think I have the confidence to do that by myself. I've just come off a game where I got burnt badly as town.
When I do look at people, it will be looking at votes and people's reasons and if I think their explanations are chappy or not.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

[Reminder I need to post reads for Manatee]

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I'll be V/LA this weekend, might find time to post, but might be busy. In all likelihood will probably read and post shorter posts from my phone, but nothing deep

[MathBlade]

@Manatee I don’t really do readwalls. I find them misleading. I can do how likely I think each pairing is after work with a keyboard.

@Geraintm I don’t want you to lead by yourself I want you to work with manatee. You may have come off a bad game but the only way to get better is to try again. I would rather lose 100 times over and have people get better than win 100 times over and keep only a few players perceived as good town. By you leading we know that the wagon is town driven and then scum have to try to defend it or not. I am not trying to tell you how to hunt I am just asking you and Manatee to be the dominant force here before nightfall.

[Dwlee99]

Individual reads:

Me
(for math)
Conftown people

Math/Kyo

Salsa/Marci

NM

Together reads: my gut is telling me NM + a deep wolf, but obviously this doesn't match with the individual reads in a quantifiable way. Might be as simple as NM + one of Marci/salsa. I don't really think that Marci and salsa are scum together though? Based on what I've seen?

[MathBlade]

Ordered list by confidence
Dwlee + Marci 65% OR Salsa + Marci 65% ==> That hammer was really bad. I don't see Marci making it unless her other buddy was posting though but (maybe) from a weaker position.
Kyo + Marci 55% ==> It's possible Kyo + Marci decided to steal a hammer where they could but in every world where this is possible I flip Marci first.
Not Mafia + Dwlee99 Odds 50% ==> Not Mafia lurking makes his stock as scum go up but I think only with everyone but Marci because of the hammer. I townread Kyo more than Dwlee/Salso so that's the percentages.
Not Mafia + Salsa Odds 50%
Not Mafia + Kyo Odds 40%
Dwlee + Kyo 35% ==> I think that Dwelee + Kyo or Kyo + Salsa is possible with how Kyo has focused on Not mafia rather than Dwlee/Salsa I think again this is worth a revisit if Marci flips town though.
Kyo + Salsa 35%
Dwlee + Salsa 10% ==> I don't see a path to victory here for this duo. This group would have both probably voted Marci right away and how hard they're going at each other I don't see this as likely.
Not Mafia + Marci Odds 10% ==> I don't think Marci sneaks that hammer when she'd have to be defensive when her partner would be gone all game.

Like I'd put Marci at 80% scum here because of the hammer and her reaction afterward and how D1 happened. The others are all dependent on her flip and how it happens and whos on it and where. Consider me spiritually on Marci I just don't want to have a runup immediately when I am out.

I'm going to have a busy weekend but will snipe in when I can.

[ManateeDude]

obligatody drunk post

[Dwlee99]

That doesn't add to 100%

[ManateeDude]

That doesn't add to 100%

yra i also thought this LMAO but

[Salsabil Faria]

@Math

, your theory-talk is booooooooooriiiiiiiiiiiiinnnnnnngggggggg

And I'm lurking, FYI

[MathBlade]

That doesn't add to 100%

It’s not meant to.

It’s more of a “could I see this be right level”.

[Not_Mafia]

I will tunnel the person who makes the post that comes 27 after this one

[geraintm]

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[geraintm]

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