Open 822: Popcorn Mafia - Game Over!!


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Post Post #750 (ISO) » Fri Aug 13, 2021 11:04 am

Post by Lukewarm »

@Marci, I dont know if this will help you at all, but I tried my best to compile how everyone is being read

This is everyone, but for some people, if I could not find an expressed read, I plugged it in as "null reads"

Enchant is read as scum by 2 people, null by 3, town by 1

Vulture is read as scum by 2 people, null by 2, town by 2

Hectic is read as scum by 1 people, null by 3, town by 2

Hockey is read as scum by 2/3 people, null by 1/2 , town by 2

Toog is read as scum by 1 people, null by 1,
town by 4


I am read as scum by 2/3 people, null by 2/3, town by 1

Pav is read as
scum by 5
people, null by 1 , town by 0


Spoiler: Notes on who is reading where
Enchant: Pav(SR) Hec(SR) Hoc(NR) Luke(TR) Toog (NR) Vult(NR)
Vulture: Pav(SR) Hec(TR) Hoc(TR) Luke(SR) Toog (NR) Ench (NR)
Hectic: Pav(NR) Hoc(TR) Luke(TR) Toog(SR) Ench (NR) Vult(NR)
Hockey : Pav(TR) Hec(TR) Luke(SR) Toog(SR/NR?) Ench(SR) Vult(NR)
Toog : Pav(TR) Hec(TR) Hoc(TR) Luke (TR) Ench(SR) Vult(NR)
Luke : Pav(NR) Hec(SR/NR) Hoc(SR) Toog (TR) Ench (NR) Vult(SR)
Pav : Hec(SR) Hoc(SR) Luke(SR) Toog (SR) Ench (NR) Vult(SR)


Things I noticed compiling this:
  • Toog is fairly universally town read
    Pav is fairly universally scum read
    All of Toog, Enchant, and Vulture have very few expressed town reads, and I had to just plug in a lot of "null reads" on everyone out side of thier scum piles
    I am less widely town read then I thought I was x.x
(The partial votes are, Hectic's read on me, because he seems to be bouncing back and forth, and then Toog's read on Hockey because he said he should not make it to end game, but then was not in his most recent solve)
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Post Post #751 (ISO) » Fri Aug 13, 2021 11:07 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 750, Lukewarm wrote:Toog is fairly universally town read
Pav is fairly universally scum read
For both of these, it means that the scum are sitting with the same reads as the town on these slots.
All of Toog, Enchant, and Vulture have very few expressed town reads, and I had to just plug in a lot of "null reads" on everyone out side of thier scum piles
Can you 3 give like a full reads list?
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Post Post #752 (ISO) » Fri Aug 13, 2021 11:11 am

Post by Lukewarm »

I guess I am trying to decide if I think that implies that we are wrong on Pav, and scum team is riding it, or are his partners bussing / letting him sink :dead:
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Post Post #753 (ISO) » Fri Aug 13, 2021 11:17 am

Post by Pavowski »

In post 750, Lukewarm wrote:@Marci, I dont know if this will help you at all, but I tried my best to compile how everyone is being read

This is everyone, but for some people, if I could not find an expressed read, I plugged it in as "null reads"

Enchant is read as scum by 2 people, null by 3, town by 1

Vulture is read as scum by 2 people, null by 2, town by 2

Hectic is read as scum by 1 people, null by 3, town by 2

Hockey is read as scum by 2/3 people, null by 1/2 , town by 2

Toog is read as scum by 1 people, null by 1,
town by 4


I am read as scum by 2/3 people, null by 2/3, town by 1

Pav is read as
scum by 5
people, null by 1 , town by 0


Spoiler: Notes on who is reading where
Enchant: Pav(SR) Hec(SR) Hoc(NR) Luke(TR) Toog (NR) Vult(NR)
Vulture: Pav(SR) Hec(TR) Hoc(TR) Luke(SR) Toog (NR) Ench (NR)
Hectic: Pav(NR) Hoc(TR) Luke(TR) Toog(SR) Ench (NR) Vult(NR)
Hockey : Pav(TR) Hec(TR) Luke(SR) Toog(SR/NR?) Ench(SR) Vult(NR)
Toog : Pav(TR) Hec(TR) Hoc(TR) Luke (TR) Ench(SR) Vult(NR)
Luke : Pav(NR) Hec(SR/NR) Hoc(SR) Toog (TR) Ench (NR) Vult(SR)
Pav : Hec(SR) Hoc(SR) Luke(SR) Toog (SR) Ench (NR) Vult(SR)


Things I noticed compiling this:
  • Toog is fairly universally town read
    Pav is fairly universally scum read
    All of Toog, Enchant, and Vulture have very few expressed town reads, and I had to just plug in a lot of "null reads" on everyone out side of thier scum piles
    I am less widely town read then I thought I was x.x
(The partial votes are, Hectic's read on me, because he seems to be bouncing back and forth, and then Toog's read on Hockey because he said he should not make it to end game, but then was not in his most recent solve)
This is the kind of analysis I felt I needed to do but really didn't want to do. Thanks Luke.
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Post Post #754 (ISO) » Fri Aug 13, 2021 11:37 am

Post by marcistar »

what if i just meme shoot if nobody wants to help hehe :oops:
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Post Post #755 (ISO) » Fri Aug 13, 2021 11:41 am

Post by marcistar »

luke

:? r u scum yes or yes
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Post Post #756 (ISO) » Fri Aug 13, 2021 1:44 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 755, marcistar wrote:luke

:? r u scum yes or yes
I'm town :good:
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Post Post #757 (ISO) » Fri Aug 13, 2021 1:45 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Do you have any questions for me? I don't actually know how to help you right now :/
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Post Post #758 (ISO) » Fri Aug 13, 2021 1:56 pm

Post by HockeyFan »

In post 750, Lukewarm wrote:@Marci, I dont know if this will help you at all, but I tried my best to compile how everyone is being read

This is everyone, but for some people, if I could not find an expressed read, I plugged it in as "null reads"

Enchant is read as scum by 2 people, null by 3, town by 1

Vulture is read as scum by 2 people, null by 2, town by 2

Hectic is read as scum by 1 people, null by 3, town by 2

Hockey is read as scum by 2/3 people, null by 1/2 , town by 2

Toog is read as scum by 1 people, null by 1,
town by 4


I am read as scum by 2/3 people, null by 2/3, town by 1

Pav is read as
scum by 5
people, null by 1 , town by 0


Spoiler: Notes on who is reading where
Enchant: Pav(SR) Hec(SR) Hoc(NR) Luke(TR) Toog (NR) Vult(NR)
Vulture: Pav(SR) Hec(TR) Hoc(TR) Luke(SR) Toog (NR) Ench (NR)
Hectic: Pav(NR) Hoc(TR) Luke(TR) Toog(SR) Ench (NR) Vult(NR)
Hockey : Pav(TR) Hec(TR) Luke(SR) Toog(SR/NR?) Ench(SR) Vult(NR)
Toog : Pav(TR) Hec(TR) Hoc(TR) Luke (TR) Ench(SR) Vult(NR)
Luke : Pav(NR) Hec(SR/NR) Hoc(SR) Toog (TR) Ench (NR) Vult(SR)
Pav : Hec(SR) Hoc(SR) Luke(SR) Toog (SR) Ench (NR) Vult(SR)


Things I noticed compiling this:
  • Toog is fairly universally town read
    Pav is fairly universally scum read
    All of Toog, Enchant, and Vulture have very few expressed town reads, and I had to just plug in a lot of "null reads" on everyone out side of thier scum piles
    I am less widely town read then I thought I was x.x
(The partial votes are, Hectic's read on me, because he seems to be bouncing back and forth, and then Toog's read on Hockey because he said he should not make it to end game, but then was not in his most recent solve)
I think you misread cuz I sr Pav
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Post Post #759 (ISO) » Fri Aug 13, 2021 1:57 pm

Post by HockeyFan »

In post 749, Pavowski wrote:I mean he's wrong, but I was way wrong on Marci so I guess I can't be mad about it. The question is if he's wrong because he's scum or because I don't know how to not sound scummy.

Actually, I guess it could be both.

Anyway, refresh my memory? Your solve is me + ?
You,Enchant plus possible deep wolf in Luke, although that one can be Hectic. Togeloo probs my only TR rn
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Post Post #760 (ISO) » Fri Aug 13, 2021 2:36 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 758, HockeyFan wrote:I think you misread cuz I sr Pav
I have you down as scum reading pav? I think you are not understanding my chart.
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Post Post #761 (ISO) » Fri Aug 13, 2021 2:49 pm

Post by HockeyFan »

In post 760, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 758, HockeyFan wrote:I think you misread cuz I sr Pav
I have you down as scum reading pav? I think you are not understanding my chart.
In post 750, Lukewarm wrote:@Marci, I dont know if this will help you at all, but I tried my best to compile how everyone is being read

This is everyone, but for some people, if I could not find an expressed read, I plugged it in as "null reads"

Spoiler: Notes on who is reading where
Enchant: Pav(SR) Hec(SR) Hoc(NR) Luke(TR) Toog (NR) Vult(NR)
Vulture: Pav(SR) Hec(TR) Hoc(TR) Luke(SR) Toog (NR) Ench (NR)
Hectic: Pav(NR) Hoc(TR) Luke(TR) Toog(SR) Ench (NR) Vult(NR)
Hockey :
Pav(TR)
Hec(TR) Luke(SR) Toog(SR/NR?) Ench(SR) Vult(NR)
Toog : Pav(TR) Hec(TR) Hoc(TR) Luke (TR) Ench(SR) Vult(NR)
Luke : Pav(NR) Hec(SR/NR) Hoc(SR) Toog (TR) Ench (NR) Vult(SR)
Pav : Hec(SR) Hoc(SR) Luke(SR) Toog (SR) Ench (NR) Vult(SR)

What is that supposed to mean?
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Post Post #762 (ISO) » Fri Aug 13, 2021 2:50 pm

Post by HockeyFan »

o wait i should probs remove spoiler
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Post Post #763 (ISO) » Fri Aug 13, 2021 2:50 pm

Post by HockeyFan »

Whatever, I just bolded the part where is says Hockey: Pav(TR)
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Post Post #764 (ISO) » Fri Aug 13, 2021 3:32 pm

Post by Pavowski »

In post 752, Lukewarm wrote:I guess I am trying to decide if I think that implies that we are wrong on Pav, and scum team is riding it, or are his partners bussing / letting him sink :dead:
Put another way, scum would be happy to give me the gun :shifty:
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Post Post #765 (ISO) » Fri Aug 13, 2021 3:44 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 763, HockeyFan wrote:Whatever, I just bolded the part where is says Hockey: Pav(TR)
The chart was a list of how people were being read.

That means I have pav as town reading you. Not the other way around
Pav : Hec(SR)
Hoc(SR)
Luke(SR) Toog (SR) Ench (NR) Vult(SR)
I was trying to get a feel for if there were any consensus town or scum reads
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Post Post #766 (ISO) » Fri Aug 13, 2021 9:12 pm

Post by Enchant »

Considering Pav scumreaded by everyone else, i think he is town.
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Post Post #767 (ISO) » Fri Aug 13, 2021 11:30 pm

Post by Hectic »

I should've played like a jester so I could get the gun early this game

Pav is a consensus scumread because he's scum and his 2 partners aren't gonna defend hum when very single other town player scumreading him. Otherwise, his partners would look like his partners
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Post Post #768 (ISO) » Fri Aug 13, 2021 11:33 pm

Post by Hectic »

I find Luke's analysis up there +scum, since he makes factual observations but doesn't try to draw any conclusions from it, which I think town!Luke likely would

outlines the possibilities with regards to Pav, but is very non-committal and he doesn't aim to express which he thinks is most likely
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Post Post #769 (ISO) » Fri Aug 13, 2021 11:38 pm

Post by Hectic »

In post 764, Pavowski wrote:
In post 752, Lukewarm wrote:I guess I am trying to decide if I think that implies that we are wrong on Pav, and scum team is riding it, or are his partners bussing / letting him sink :dead:
Put another way, scum would be happy to give me the gun :shifty:
In post 766, Enchant wrote:Considering Pav scumreaded by everyone else, i think he is town.
Honestly I could be wrong on Pav just because of the fact no matter how much I scumcase whatever he posts he comes back and gives more takes and reads, like it doesn't seem to phase him at all. I have caught myself scumreading town payers similar to Pav with waffly (nice?) tones, so it might be that again

I feel more confident in a Luke shot at this current time

: This is also scummy from Enchant

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Post Post #770 (ISO) » Fri Aug 13, 2021 11:41 pm

Post by Hectic »

In post 711, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 710, Hectic wrote:
In post 289, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 286, Pavowski wrote:
In post 284, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 282, Pavowski wrote:Ugh everybody alive has a 50/50 shot at being scum, do not like
What do you mean, everyone alive has a 50/50 shot at being scum?

Everyone is a null read?

No I mean in a vacuum there are 4 scum to 8 shootable slots
I was getting ready to accuse you of tmi'ing how many scum there are, but double checked it is in the OP from the mod, and apparently I just missed it lol

4 seems like a lot for an 11 player game, but probably makes sense since we are nightless
Hmm, did you forget we were playing an open game

and did you look at the setup page when signing up in the queue?

I never looked at the setup from the queue. ArcAngel modded the last game that all of Me, Marci, Pav, and T3 played in, and she asked us to sign up for this on in the post game of that one, and I did just because she asked lol

And I already knew how popcorn worked, because in a discord conversation like a week before I in'ed Notscience, LLD, and Cabd were talking about the set up when aa9 first signed up to mod it. So, I understood the gun mechanic even before aa9 asked up to join her game

So, yeah, I missed the town / scum split :oops:
I can't say much on this, because these specific events are probably true

What I don't understand is how town!Lukewarm forgot we were playing an open game that he signed up for in the open queue

It does say "Open 822: Popcorn Mafia" up there
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Post Post #771 (ISO) » Fri Aug 13, 2021 11:45 pm

Post by Hectic »

I seriously do not mind getting shot right now btw, I welcome it

I just really don't want to be shot if marci misfires given that would lose the game
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Post Post #772 (ISO) » Fri Aug 13, 2021 11:54 pm

Post by Hectic »

In post 746, Pavowski wrote:
In post 740, marcistar wrote:gib ur team prediction
Really difficult but I'll do my best.

My elim pool is Luke, Hectic, Vulture, and Enchant right this second. Hockey seems unlikely and Toog is gutpinging me hard as town over their recent posts.

Problem is I don't see a ton of scum equity among those 4, although this setup doesn't necessarily lend itself to the scum team showing a lot of equity. I also have a hard time thinking Luke and Hectic could be teamed, though I don't think I could articulate a good reason for that.

So... Enchant, Vulture, Luke/Hectic.

I go back and forth on Hectic. On one hand I feel like he's reading me unfavorably at almost every opportunity to try and get me shot. On the other he could be genuinely scum hunting and I just look bad for him. I know I was all gung-ho shoot Hectic this morning but honestly he's still one that could flip either way and not surprise me at all. (I double-talk myself a lot, which is probably the source of most of the scumreads against me, but I am what I am.)

Gun to head, I'd shoot Hectic over Luke. Ask me again in a couple hours and that could change.

But tomorrow's Saturday so I'm planning to re-read the game and see if my gutfeels line up with a look back.
In post 747, Pavowski wrote:Also sorry if I'm being extra-thick again but I dunno what pog means?
In post 749, Pavowski wrote:I mean he's wrong, but I was way wrong on Marci so I guess I can't be mad about it. The question is if he's wrong because he's scum or because I don't know how to not sound scummy.

Actually, I guess it could be both.

Anyway, refresh my memory? Your solve is me + ?
This is what specifically made me rethink Pav

His read on me ever since I started pushing him as been fairly complex. I can tell he goes back on forth on me, replying in good faith whenever I answer him questions, but expressing how he doesn't like my push. He's also aware on some level that he "sounds scummy". Like it's a lot better than just a standard OMGUS reaction or just "you're town and wrong", and that underlying thinking might make him town

Toogeloo's advice columns to marci have slightly rubbed me the wrong way, but I can't articulate why. Or maybe I'm just starting to think that because I think Pav may be town so someone needs to take his place as scum lol
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Post Post #773 (ISO) » Sat Aug 14, 2021 12:09 am

Post by Hectic »

Inspired new solve:

Lukewarm + Enchant + Toogeloo

I reread Hockey and Vulture both again but I still think they're both town. T3 whiteknight of Hockey is a big factor for him. While, Vulture's 1v1 with Luewarm (assuming I am correct on Luke) is a big factor for him. Which leaves Toogeloo
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Post Post #774 (ISO) » Sat Aug 14, 2021 12:40 am

Post by Pavowski »

Hectic you have me cracking up this morning. You go from absolutely certain I'm scum in 767 to pretty sure I'm town in 772 with zero input from outside sources.

I'm not even saying it's scum-indicative or anything -- I'm barely awake and hardly thinking yet so I'll decide that later -- but you made me laugh and I APPRECIATE YOU

Now watch as the rest of the lobby uses this as evidence we are scum together.

Let's grab a beer after this game!

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