Newbie 2076 [Game Over]

[T3]

Roden kmew exactly what I was doing and I think scum Roden would have questioned it more.

[Umlaut]

Vote Count 1.4

Clasko

(2): T3, LicketyQuickety

T3

(1): Clasko

alstroemerial

(1): Egix96

Not voting

(5): HockeyFan, MargotRosa, Roden, StrangeMatter, alstroemerial

With 9 alive, it takes 5 votes to eliminate.

Deadline:

(expired on 2021-08-20 23:48:00)

[StrangeMatter]

So I have a question for Egix, why did you make a throwaway vote?

[alstroemerial]

Regarding Hockey’s 296: it’s the phrasing of the vote post (216) which implies that a flip is not that interesting, combined with both no hard push on T3 or any conviction that it’s scum. There is their earlier 118, but in terms of both post # and time that’s a ways off.

The game has been so quiet that it’s hard to find someone that I feel super duper fired up about. But I get that we all want to save ourselves from a no elim and that countdown is making me a little nervous. Looking at Clasko again though I don’t really SR it? I don’t think scum would close the door on fakeclaiming tracker early like in 55, and it seems like they’re trying to solve. Curious how they answer my question.

I just don’t have enough SRs this game that I was kind of hoping I’d sus Clasko more when I looked but I don’t see it lol

[MargotRosa]

Sorry I've been out of it for a while. Catching up now.

[MargotRosa]

Locktown: Hockey, Strange, Roden
Town: LQ
POE: Everyone else

Agree with this partly.

Strange seems to be acting townie, and I had a slight suspicion that Astra would not have pulled out if she had rolled Scum (which is very metagamey, which is why I didn't bring it up earlier).

Roden is still a strong Town lean for me, but I don't think I'd lock town yet.

I don't know that LQ has done much to assuage my earlier suspicions. I feel like people backed down from the scum read mainly on the basis of it being a bit of a pile on, and the fact that once I spelled out what I saw as the difference between scum defensiveness and townie defensiveness it changed.

The team I can most easily imagine in my head (which is admittedly pretty wonky at present) still remains Alstro and LQ, but that's a long shot, and doesn't really mean much day 1. Plus, Alstro has been acting far more Townie than previously.

Clasko's an interesting one, though I don't see the slip as an actual slip. Just seems like unfortunate phrasing.

Still think clearest bet for me right now remains LQ.

[Clasko]

I’ll ask Clasko this. What would you make of a red T3 flip?

So, I'm not 100% sure of what the question is, so if you had something more specific in mind, let me knwo and i'll answer, but I think T3's red flip has a good chance of clearing me and Roden:

Me, because, assuming scum!Clasko and scum!T3, then after my slip (which, in this context, IS a scum slip), T3 has two options: 1) point out the slip immediately to gain max. distancing points, or 2) claim ignorance and go about as they were. The first option puts scum!Clasko at risk of a D1 elim, and following my elim, scum!T3 still has to get three townies elimmed for D2, 3 and 4 with one/two town power roles out there - this is heavily against scum!T3's wincon if we're both scum. T3 is a wildcard, but is competent, and competent scum always play to wincon, meaning option 2 is much more likely.

Roden, because of their play at the beginning of the game. Newbie games tend to be more focused on homing in on what looks surface-scummy, so immediately they both aren't doing themselves any favours by locktowning each other for intangible reasons that they refuse to elaborate clearly on, which, again, I think goes against wincon as it opens them both up for potential elimination. Too much risk for VERY little reward IMO.

As for everyone else, it's hard to judge based on the limited interactions, but something I will say, and this is more of a consensus thing, is that if T3 flips red, then LQ's scum equity with T3 increases by a fraction. Scum are likely to interact with their partner in the main thread in some form or other, whether it be through votes, arguments, pushes, busses, or what have you (to avoid being seen as a pair), and their vote towards LQ feels like a classic "pushing without pushing" to get some distance/seem busy with eachother, but this is based on consensus rather than the player's meta.

[Clasko]

I guess I was expecting more of a kind of elaboration and an explanation for why they said "green flip." IDK maybe I saw it and it didn't register in my brain because I didn't see what I was looking for. "Doesn't tell us much" is literally sweeping the entire issue under the rug. Like, the whole reason people think it IS a slip is for that specific comment. So for them to just say, "It doesn't mean much" like why are we supposed to just buy that explanation? It's literally a non-explanation. I was looking for an explanation and didn't see one. :shug:

I don't have a defense to give you regarding the green flip comment, unfortunately. Margot's right in that it's just unfortunate phrasing and I didn't give it much thought, but in the context of this game, it's at least another angle of conversation.

Your #250 looks fairly decisive in that you're gonna keep your vote on me until EoD, is that the case for you rn? Am I likely to flip red in your eyes? Or is it more like you can't get away from the 'slip' in your mind when considering whether I'm scummy/towny?

[Clasko]

Slightly worrying that five people aren't voting right now, and No Votes don't tell us anything, so, maybe change that and stuff.

I'll probably rearrange/update my reads list in #267 next time I check in because that post was kinda scattered towards the bottom, there.

[Egix96]

^^ above message cut off, meant to say You can give them town points, sure, but it was just a bit weird to me, I think I take that read above but still think you're scum indivually. i think egix's scum equity has gone up too recently

If you were not an unCCed tracker, I would have been omgussing you so hard for offhandedly shading me like that.

So I have a question for Egix, why did you make a throwaway vote?

In my opinion, Clasko is more likely town than Alstro due to having reads that are more logically explained/seem less like trying to come up with something weak just to hide TMI. As I said, it could be that he's right and I'm wrong regarding Margot - although, using my own judgement alone, I would probably still yeet Margot if only for the fact that both of her votes so far (not counting re-votes) have been riddled with debacle. Still, I thought it would help to move my vote as I've often had issues in games with tying myself to a single vote for the entire D1.

[HockeyFan]

^^ above message cut off, meant to say You can give them town points, sure, but it was just a bit weird to me, I think I take that read above but still think you're scum indivually. i think egix's scum equity has gone up too recently

If you were not an unCCed tracker, I would have been omgussing you so hard for offhandedly shading me like that.

[HockeyFan]

Locktown: Hockey, Strange, Roden
Town: LQ
POE: Everyone else

Agree with this partly.

Strange seems to be acting townie, and I had a slight suspicion that Astra would not have pulled out if she had rolled Scum (which is very metagamey, which is why I didn't bring it up earlier).

Roden is still a strong Town lean for me, but I don't think I'd lock town yet.

I don't know that LQ has done much to assuage my earlier suspicions. I feel like people backed down from the scum read mainly on the basis of it being a bit of a pile on, and the fact that once I spelled out what I saw as the difference between scum defensiveness and townie defensiveness it changed.

The team I can most easily imagine in my head (which is admittedly pretty wonky at present) still remains Alstro and LQ, but that's a long shot, and doesn't really mean much day 1. Plus, Alstro has been acting far more Townie than previously.

Clasko's an interesting one, though I don't see the slip as an actual slip. Just seems like unfortunate phrasing.

Still think clearest bet for me right now remains LQ.

Who do you think is partners with LQ?

Slightly worrying that five people aren't voting right now, and No Votes don't tell us anything, so, maybe change that and stuff.

I'll probably rearrange/update my reads list in #267 next time I check in because that post was kinda scattered towards the bottom, there.

Why? we have 4 days left

[Egix96]

Jury's still out on StrangeMatter imo. Sure, there's the whole thing with not taking the tracker claim seriously, as well as the "effort" that T3 pointed out, but I'm not valuing those much because a) 208 was of little value, ultimately (COULD have been faked simply for the purpose of having something to make an entrance with), and b) the effort with finding meta is wasted if the conlusions are not worth more than "grains of salt" by their own admission.
As for anything I can see that's actually scummy, the "we cannot let slips just pass by" part in 279 does feel a bit like posturing, but that is a stretch even if I do say so myself.

[T3]

Town Clasko in 2071 quoted other players and usually quotewalled.

[Roden]

Strange saying "we cannot let slips just pass by" just feels like a shade attempt without having to commit to it. Which makes me they Strange + Clasko most likely isn't ever a pairing since Strange seems fine with suggesting Clasko is scum. If it was distancing I think it would be more overt.

[LicketyQuickety]

I keep feeling like alstro is not really doing much. I feel like they are just posting to post - like they know they have to post something so they do, but none of it is really convincing because of so much hedging language (which is usually a Scum tell).

[LicketyQuickety]

I guess I was expecting more of a kind of elaboration and an explanation for why they said "green flip." IDK maybe I saw it and it didn't register in my brain because I didn't see what I was looking for. "Doesn't tell us much" is literally sweeping the entire issue under the rug. Like, the whole reason people think it IS a slip is for that specific comment. So for them to just say, "It doesn't mean much" like why are we supposed to just buy that explanation? It's literally a non-explanation. I was looking for an explanation and didn't see one. :shug:

I don't have a defense to give you regarding the green flip comment, unfortunately. Margot's right in that it's just unfortunate phrasing and I didn't give it much thought, but in the context of this game, it's at least another angle of conversation.

Your #250 looks fairly decisive in that you're gonna keep your vote on me until EoD, is that the case for you rn? Am I likely to flip red in your eyes? Or is it more like you can't get away from the 'slip' in your mind when considering whether I'm scummy/towny?

After thinking about it a bit more, I don't think it being a slip is 100%, but I would probably put it at about 65% that it was actually a slip. I have some reservations about you being Scum like that you are still being somewhat counterintuitive with what you are saying, so you haven't actually broke that narrative yet. In that way, I can see the slip comment just coming from that narrative. Still, I'm more sure it is a slip than it isn't at this point. I mean, if you don't want to get lynched here, you have to make someone else look more Scummy than yourself. So I would suggest pushing someone else if you're Town here rather than just defending yourself.

[LicketyQuickety]

Locktown: Hockey, Strange, Roden
Town: LQ
POE: Everyone else

Agree with this partly.

Strange seems to be acting townie, and I had a slight suspicion that Astra would not have pulled out if she had rolled Scum (which is very metagamey, which is why I didn't bring it up earlier).

Roden is still a strong Town lean for me, but I don't think I'd lock town yet.

I don't know that LQ has done much to assuage my earlier suspicions. I feel like people backed down from the scum read mainly on the basis of it being a bit of a pile on, and the fact that once I spelled out what I saw as the difference between scum defensiveness and townie defensiveness it changed.

The team I can most easily imagine in my head (which is admittedly pretty wonky at present) still remains Alstro and LQ, but that's a long shot, and doesn't really mean much day 1. Plus, Alstro has been acting far more Townie than previously.

Clasko's an interesting one, though I don't see the slip as an actual slip. Just seems like unfortunate phrasing.

Still think clearest bet for me right now remains LQ.

If I have your reasoning right for why I am Scum it is because my defensiveness changed after you said I was being defensive? And that just because the wagon developed doesn't mean I am Town? I can still be reasonable sometimes just like I can be defensive sometimes. When I explained to alstro that defensiveness isn't a Scum tell for me, the reached the conclusion that it is person dependent whereas you still think me being defensive is a Scum tell. I'm just trying to tell you here that being defensive isn't AI for me. Make of that what you will but it's true.

[LicketyQuickety]

What I see from Alstro is mostly IIoA, which can be pretty good at catching Scum. If Alstro's posts were longer, then I would definitely think they were doing this tell. But they mostly make short, good sounding posts without a conclusion.

[LicketyQuickety]

In other news, I'm just not in the right headspace to play Mafia rn, but I have nothing better to do.

[alstroemerial]

Well, LQ, you basically got me pegged. I've been posting through some personal stuff from my phone over the weekend because I'm going to be doing a more "LA" V/LA later this week. The fewer conclusions are mostly because I've been posting reactions but not clicking back to earlier in the thread to think about it in conjunction with what's happened. But for at least the next few days I am here and back with a computer so let's see what I can do

[LicketyQuickety]

Well, LQ, you basically got me pegged. I've been posting through some personal stuff from my phone over the weekend because I'm going to be doing a more "LA" V/LA later this week. The fewer conclusions are mostly because I've been posting reactions but not clicking back to earlier in the thread to think about it in conjunction with what's happened. But for at least the next few days I am here and back with a computer so let's see what I can do

Even if that is true, it doesn't mean you are Town. I just got done with a game that went to F3 and the last Scum was giving IRL reasons all game why they weren't doing much, which was true, but they were still Scum. So it doesn't clear you.

[alstroemerial]

Oh I know, I know. The game would be pretty pointless if everyone could clear themselves by being like "s*** happened."

I’ll ask Clasko this. What would you make of a red T3 flip?

So, I'm not 100% sure of what the question is, so if you had something more specific in mind, let me knwo and i'll answer, but I think T3's red flip has a good chance of clearing me and Roden:

Me, because, assuming scum!Clasko and scum!T3, then after my slip (which, in this context, IS a scum slip), T3 has two options: 1) point out the slip immediately to gain max. distancing points, or 2) claim ignorance and go about as they were. The first option puts scum!Clasko at risk of a D1 elim, and following my elim, scum!T3 still has to get three townies elimmed for D2, 3 and 4 with one/two town power roles out there - this is heavily against scum!T3's wincon if we're both scum. T3 is a wildcard, but is competent, and competent scum always play to wincon, meaning option 2 is much more likely.

Roden, because of their play at the beginning of the game. Newbie games tend to be more focused on homing in on what looks surface-scummy, so immediately they both aren't doing themselves any favours by locktowning each other for intangible reasons that they refuse to elaborate clearly on, which, again, I think goes against wincon as it opens them both up for potential elimination. Too much risk for VERY little reward IMO.

As for everyone else, it's hard to judge based on the limited interactions, but something I will say, and this is more of a consensus thing, is that if T3 flips red, then LQ's scum equity with T3 increases by a fraction. Scum are likely to interact with their partner in the main thread in some form or other, whether it be through votes, arguments, pushes, busses, or what have you (to avoid being seen as a pair), and their vote towards LQ feels like a classic "pushing without pushing" to get some distance/seem busy with eachother, but this is based on consensus rather than the player's meta.

This is the type of thing I was looking for, yes. I think your argument about LQ is interesting. I looked back at their combined ISO and ended up just getting confused by T3's read progression on LQ. They have that light push on LQ that you mention, and then pivot to a town read with 217 and immediately switch to Clasko. But it's unclear what that's referring to. The most recent stuff LQ says about T3 is how he's waiting for something spectacular but I don't see what's potentially fake about that or anything.

I do agree that you and T3 are a highly unlikely pair.

[StrangeMatter]

bruh

Why do u TR people that hold info, still dont get it

Well, hiding information like that can be useful to not give information that may benefit scum, but sometimes it’s absolutely necessary to explain otherwise you leave everyone that’s Town with less information. Now about Roden not giving information to scum, was just not needed since Roden was obviously already doing that. Idk that to me can seem like they’re trying to get towncred as scum. I can’t really think of that being something Town says unless for some reason they care about correcting or self conscious about how town thinks about them.

I'm not sure how you reached this interpretation. I can understand why town might be suspicious of me from holding information, but trying to continue to push when I'm making it clear doing so is anti-town is just not a good look. Continuously drawing attention to it is not a good look. Trying to shade me into spilling the beans is especially not a good look.

Hockey claimed Tracker and isn't getting counterclaimed, so I can only assume they're conftown and because of that I won't scum read them. But anyone else who tries to push this when I keep warning against it is gonna get priority of my vote going forward. Trying to get info out of me or T3 about his plan is just a scum move now.

I read this and got confused, who are you even talking about with the first part of this post? It seems like you are talking about Hockey but also sounds like you mention me and this is just confusing for me to read. I've already stated from what I interpret from post #79 you already say you weren't giving away the information, then in #83 and #91 you talk about hiding information involving T3. My problem is that it gives off that feeling that you're doing it to look town when scum is often self conscious about the people around them.

[alstroemerial]

For now, I'm going to VOTE: Egix to try to squeeze some more content out. Question for you: Has your read on LQ changed since 111 given that they've been particularly active, and since the whole slip discussion?