Newbie 2076 [Game Over]

[PenguinPower]

Vote Count 2.3

alstroemerial

(3): MargotRosa, Roden, T3

T3

(2): alstroemerial, Egix96

GrandpaMo

(1): Ythan

Not voting

(2): GrandpaMo, StrangeMatter,

With 8 alive, it takes 5 votes to eliminate.

Deadline:

(expired on 2021-08-30 03:48:00)

[Egix96]

I think my problem right now is that LQ has interactions involving several people in some way during this game, and I feel like going off interactions isn’t going to really be helpful, and is probably what scum wants if you ask me.

Hmmmm. I don't think I'll have another opportunity to re-read more of this game until deadline day anyway.

[alstroemerial]

Sorry for double quote

sorry alstro , you have to concede here buddy.

I don't think it would be responsible of me to concede on behalf of everyone

[alstroemerial]

Okay so seeing these last pages play out, there are two possibilities. One, T3 is scum but no one besides Egix is with me, and it seems quite unlikely that that will change before the deadline, so we'll have to wait until PoE or tracker catches him to resolve that. Two, T3 is town and I'm barking up the wrong tree, which would usually have a limited downside because it's still an interaction I can get info from, but in this case, it appears the more I push the more I get run-up, because I don't want to spell out what I think is happening behind the scenes and why I think it's less good than everyone else seems to think. Still, based on what I've read in the thread, I suspect I've likely inadvertently damaged the crap out of T3's plan if he is town. Let me try putting it this way, getting a little more direct without spelling everything out. To those tracking along with T3's gambit, if your understanding of it relies on key assumption(s) and WIFOM-ing the mafia a bit, what if the assumption(s) isn't correct? That's the trail I'm on.

[StrangeMatter]

Okay so seeing these last pages play out, there are two possibilities. One, T3 is scum but no one besides Egix is with me, and it seems quite unlikely that that will change before the deadline, so we'll have to wait until PoE or tracker catches him to resolve that. Two, T3 is town and I'm barking up the wrong tree, which would usually have a limited downside because it's still an interaction I can get info from, but in this case, it appears the more I push the more I get run-up, because I don't want to spell out what I think is happening behind the scenes and why I think it's less good than everyone else seems to think. Still, based on what I've read in the thread, I suspect I've likely inadvertently damaged the crap out of T3's plan if he is town. Let me try putting it this way, getting a little more direct without spelling everything out. To those tracking along with T3's gambit, if your understanding of it relies on key assumption(s) and WIFOM-ing the mafia a bit, what if the assumption(s) isn't correct? That's the trail I'm on.

Ok I have a problem with this. My problem with this is that nobody on Town can guarantee they know if their assumptions are wrong. In fact, it’s really hard to know what assumptions are wrong until it can be proved that the assumption is wrong, and often this probably won’t happen until after the game ends.

And if the assumption is wrong and someone can provide why it’s wrong, then I’ll just go from what I know is right and try again in a different way. Your post reads kind of paranoid the assumptions made are wrong, but also seems to me as if you don’t want this plan even happening in the first place.

[Roden]

I don't think prolonging the day has gotten us anywhere. We need to come together on a vote before EoD in case the person we run up ends up claiming something other than VT.

Alstro, if you're town and you genuinely believe T3 is scum, you need to come up with a better case than "What if your assumption is wrong?" because even if we are wrong, scum!T3 doesn't ever win at end game anyway. So what exactly makes you think he's scum besides being secretive about his plan? And who else do you think is the second scum if you're wrong about T3?

[Ythan]

I need to post. I'll try to tonight.

[GrandpaMo]

ok i claim doc, lets vote already.

[GrandpaMo]

Okay so seeing these last pages play out, there are two possibilities. One, T3 is scum but no one besides Egix is with me, and it seems quite unlikely that that will change before the deadline, so we'll have to wait until PoE or tracker catches him to resolve that. Two, T3 is town and I'm barking up the wrong tree, which would usually have a limited downside because it's still an interaction I can get info from, but in this case, it appears the more I push the more I get run-up, because I don't want to spell out what I think is happening behind the scenes and why I think it's less good than everyone else seems to think. Still, based on what I've read in the thread, I suspect I've likely inadvertently damaged the crap out of T3's plan if he is town. Let me try putting it this way, getting a little more direct without spelling everything out. To those tracking along with T3's gambit, if your understanding of it relies on key assumption(s) and WIFOM-ing the mafia a bit, what if the assumption(s) isn't correct? That's the trail I'm on.

alstro honestly i think ur town kek

[GrandpaMo]

im scared to read t3 because t3 had pocketed me that one game...

honeslty i just wanna get a revenge vote on him

VOTE: T3

go go go gas this

[StrangeMatter]

ok i claim doc, lets vote already.

Why would you claim doctor?? Does anyone have a CC?

Also this wagon on T3 just feels like most of it is just policy which I don't think is really a good thing.

[T3]

I hammered lq though.

[StrangeMatter]

Also, I'm not getting this since if Ythan targets T3 tonight and GrandpaMo targets Ythan (if there isn't a CC) if he's scum he can't NK (if I'm right about how doctor works).

[T3]

GM targets Ythan, Ythan tracks whoever, GM ded, 2 IC's in elo assuming we mislim.

[Egix96]

2 IC's in elo

That doesn't seem right?
If we misyeet today:
Mo gets NKed, but Ythan and his track target survive: 2ICs at f6.
Misyeet again, Ythan dies to NK: 1 IC at f4.

[T3]

I forgot no one died.

[alstroemerial]

Wow a lot to respond to but I'm going to start by tossing out maybe it doesn't make sense for the doc to CC unless we are pitting Mo against someone, etc. Mo has fakeclaimed PR as town in prior games, or it could be scum!Mo trying to fish out the doctor. The way for scum to save this, I think, is to find the doctor to kill both the PRs ASAP. If Mo is actually doctor, well, I don't think it made sense to claim at all, but Mo's meta adds enough WIFOM that I'm dubious.

tl;dr: if Mo is fakeclaiming doc I don't think that's enough for doc to CC because he has done this as town and would just draw out the actual doc for a nk

[alstroemerial]

Okay so seeing these last pages play out, there are two possibilities. One, T3 is scum but no one besides Egix is with me, and it seems quite unlikely that that will change before the deadline, so we'll have to wait until PoE or tracker catches him to resolve that. Two, T3 is town and I'm barking up the wrong tree, which would usually have a limited downside because it's still an interaction I can get info from, but in this case, it appears the more I push the more I get run-up, because I don't want to spell out what I think is happening behind the scenes and why I think it's less good than everyone else seems to think. Still, based on what I've read in the thread, I suspect I've likely inadvertently damaged the crap out of T3's plan if he is town. Let me try putting it this way, getting a little more direct without spelling everything out. To those tracking along with T3's gambit, if your understanding of it relies on key assumption(s) and WIFOM-ing the mafia a bit, what if the assumption(s) isn't correct? That's the trail I'm on.

Ok I have a problem with this. My problem with this is that nobody on Town can guarantee they know if their assumptions are wrong. In fact, it’s really hard to know what assumptions are wrong until it can be proved that the assumption is wrong, and often this probably won’t happen until after the game ends.

And if the assumption is wrong and someone can provide why it’s wrong, then I’ll just go from what I know is right and try again in a different way. Your post reads kind of paranoid the assumptions made are wrong, but also seems to me as if you don’t want this plan even happening in the first place.

kdfjsdal;kgjslfg this is why it is painful to have the secret gambits be a major topic of conversation. If the sentence didn't mean anything to you then it probably means that you aren't thinking what I'm thinking after all. There is, I'll clarify, ONE specific assumption if people are interpreting T3's thing the same way I did. And the WIFOM becomes the likelihood of if that assumption is true or not. And this could be scum T3 setting up for another gambit later down the line closer to endgame, or town T3 trying to protect the doctor, as people have interpreted more generously. I felt it was more likely that it was the former. I don't know what else I can say without laying all the cards on the table, which everyone has agreed we shouldn't do.

[alstroemerial]

I don't think prolonging the day has gotten us anywhere. We need to come together on a vote before EoD in case the person we run up ends up claiming something other than VT.

Alstro, if you're town and you genuinely believe T3 is scum, you need to come up with a better case than "What if your assumption is wrong?" because even if we are wrong, scum!T3 doesn't ever win at end game anyway. So what exactly makes you think he's scum besides being secretive about his plan? And who else do you think is the second scum if you're wrong about T3?

Alright, I'm sleep-deprived so maybe saying too much, but here's another hint-eroo regarding my earlier posts. Recent conversation offers evidence to readers that my first hypothesis (T3 setting up for endgame) is more likely.

I have said multiple times that my main PoE pool is T3 and Egix. Thus I would most like to move to Egix if not T3. However, again as I have said before, T3 and LQ's interactions on Day 1 can come off as SvS and distancing, especially with the hammer once it was a foregone conclusion that LQ was going to get eliminated.

[alstroemerial]

alstro honestly i think ur town kek

cool B)

but I wish you believed in the T3 E-2 vote for like any reason other than revenge

[alstroemerial]

I hammered lq though.

We were so close to deadline with multiple people away from the game that LQ being the elim was the only realistic option besides a no elim, making a hammer more nai especially if you preface it with this is town

[alstroemerial]

Also this wagon on T3 just feels like most of it is just policy which I don't think is really a good thing.

Egix and I have both given reasons that aren't policy; the only person who seems more dubious in the reason is mo

[alstroemerial]

agh agh agh actually I should have gathered my thoughts instead of posting each one individually. Having thoroughly processed the catchup and in the absence of any cc I find it more likely that the second, town T3 thing is true after all. So, if T3 was scum, it would be for reasons other than what I have been alluding to.

VOTE: Egix because at least T3 did vote for LQ. here are some other things for everyone's consideration, which are more compelling now that I have less reason to believe in my T3 gambit theory:

Spoiler: Egix on LQ

For now, I'm going to VOTE: Egix to try to squeeze some more content out. Question for you: Has your read on LQ changed since 111 given that they've been particularly active, and since the whole slip discussion?

I won't be able to sit down and form a comprehensive, updated read until I am back from visiting my grandparents today, but for the time being I will say that I don't think it's a good idea to yeet the top poster on D1 unless there is a very compelling case for them being scum, because if they flip town it's a huge blow.

early defense

Smh, 250 looks worse now that I've reviewed LQ's posts and seen that he actually had a town lean on Clasko in 127.

On the other hand, I do get mild town feels from 157/159, and as I mentioned earlier, I wouldn't want to jump to conclusions here if it just ends up all being for nothing.

solid hedge

I'd probably still vote LQ first. The flail looked townie, but Margot hasn't really done anything to earn scum points from me. Unless she does some real scummy shit before EoD, I'm putting my vote back on LQ.

I disagree. Aorn I would almost always vote Margot before Quickety.

speaks for itself

What makes you think Margot is scummier?

Eh, it's more that I think she is less towny rather than more scummy, seeing as if I thought anyone were outright scummy I would be hounding them. LQ has 157/159 as I mentioned before, whereas Margot only has the "mixup" I mentioned in 111 (gee that feels like it was ages ago) and although I eased off because of Clasko having a TR on her, it seems that not even he believes in that any more. Also also a bit of "sort by postcount, become werewolf expert".

LQ has made really weird pushes all day while Margot just feels more subdued.

I would say that it's Margot who has been being weird whereas LQ has made opportunistic moves, but now that I've said that... well, that only makes me less right and you more right.

more push on Margot instead of LQ

But yeah, I'm aware of the dilemma: if LQ flips green, I'll feel like a numpty for not having done enough to prevent it, but if he flips red I know I'll look terrible.

[alstroemerial]

It's a longshot given the deadline and that no one else is on Egix; would move back to T3 to prevent a no elim. Or run me up to E-1 for some fun turtle times /wink

[T3]

I hammered lq though.

We were so close to deadline with multiple people away from the game that LQ being the elim was the only realistic option besides a no elim, making a hammer more nai especially if you preface it with this is town

I would have ghosted the thread and hoped for a no lim.