In post 2994, Dwlee99 wrote:Mastina can you make your decision soonish? I wanna make mine after you
Btw small change in my plans; I have a dentist appointment tomorrow at 11:30. I'll be voting before I leave for the appointment, circa the 8:30 - 10:30ish range.
In post 3023, Aristeia wrote:He claims that I'm "cherrypicking" what Titus says. Go read Titus ISO for yourself.
He claims that I'm cherrypicking things out of context from SS/Lilith.
Who went down dying and cursing that this town didn't deserve to win because Norwee/T3 were so openwolfy.
They died with their vote on T3.
They said the town would lose because noone scumreads NorwegianBoy.
Also, uh. I actually DO think the quotes are cherrypicked because the reads and reasons are more nuanced than what you're suggesting.
And while we can't know for sure what the town do--a lack of flips on players someone is scumreading, contrary to what you say, does NOT necessarily mean the scumread would've continued had them live. All it'd take for Titus to think her solve was wrong, for instance, is for evidence to come up that throws the solve into doubt. That evidence COULD be one of the scumreads flipping town, but critically,
does not NEED to be that
, and could in fact be any of the slots showing themselves to be so town that Titus doubts her solve, and/or the slots showing interactions which throws her solve into question.
Same basic concept also applies for the Limit slot.
In post 3055, T3 wrote:Likke since when is a scum strat to spam and powerwolf
T3's wording may be different from my own, but the question asked is a valid one and along my own sentiments.
It is a fact that Norwee, T3, and Dwlee are the three slots with the highest post count in the game.
Site meta very very very strongly indicates that is a statistical anomaly from scum in most scumgames.
Radio Buzz's top posters were not all scum. It had high-posters but the scum were not the top three.
Bloodstained Ritual's top posters were not all scum. It had high-posters but the scum were not the top three.
Chrono Trigger's top posters were not all scum.
Yin and Yang's top posters were not all scum.
Owner's Market Blitz's top posters were not all scum.
And I could continue digging but across the board, the numbers tend to not lie. Scum are not the three highest-activity slots in basically any game. Even in the games they are collectively all high posters, they are still outdone by the town.
Yet for that to be the scumteam here, they'd have need to have outdone the town by a landslide.
In post 3057, T3 wrote:scum usually show up less on hammered wagons, not more
This is ALSO a factually true statement.
It's even backed by data from literally hundreds of games:
In post 18, Psyche wrote:When we focus exclusively either on wagons where the eliminated slot is TOWN or where the eliminated slot is MAFIA though, we make a striking observation: As a game goes on (e.g. in Days 3, 4, and 5),
MAFIA disproportionately end Days away from hammered wagons on TOWN
while
disproportionately ending Days on hammered wagons that vote out other MAFIA
.
Scum have a tendency to NOT vote on town elimination wagons.
Scum piling onto a town elimination and trying to force it through by brute force is basically unheard of.
In post 3158, Aristeia wrote: In post 3125, mastina wrote: In post 3103, Aristeia wrote: In post 3100, mastina wrote:Dwlee was never at risk. They never got more than two votes. T3 was never at risk. He never got more than two votes. Norwee was never at risk. He never had a lasting wagon.
They're not at risk because they've killed the people who were suspecting them by voting them off.
Pretty sure this is a fallacy. I don't remember which, might be some form of circular logic? But I'm pretty sure this doesn't work as an argument because it doesn't explain the actions that have happened, building a narrative that builds off itself without intersection with the actual facts of the game.
How is this circular logic?
Titus suspected them
They voted Titus
Titus is dead.
Now they don't have to worry about Titus voting for them anymore because
Titus is dead
I pointed out that Dwlee was never at risk of being eliminated, T3 was never at risk of being eliminated, and that Norwee was never at risk of being eliminated.
I was thus saying that there was no motive to force through a Titus elimination. Titus suspected them--but she had no support. So what if she suspected them? She had no support, so why would they feel the need, the compulsion, to
force
an elimination on Titus through, when there was no need to do so?
Scum have a strong tendency towards taking the path of least resistance. The path of least resistance is
not
forcing a Titus elimination through; that's basically the path of highest resistance. There was no need for forcing a Titus elimination through. Titus was not a threat on D1. She could have been dealt with using any number of methods.
The narrative you're building is that "Norwee/T3/Dwlee forced an elimination through on Titus because she was a threat. They did this in spite of no support of her reads because they thought she would continue to be a threat, in spite of how her reads were provably harmless on D1. They did this because they felt they needed to eliminate her. And they decided to eliminate her because she posed a threat." Further positing that they needed to get rid of Titus on D1, because by D3 we'd be in lylo and that's not enough time for things to change.
Except D3 was not for sure lylo until D3, and things had plenty of ways they could've changed.
Titus's reads could have changed.
People could have thought Titus was scum, turning against her.
Town players could have pain potioned her, saving scum the effort of needing to pain potion her. It's not like pain potioning her would've been a scumclaim. Any town player in this game who was suspicious of Titus would not get yeeted after they claimed the followed their suspicion by pain potioning her.
And scum players could easily, by the above, pain potion her and just truthfully claim to have done so.
What makes scum NEED to kill Titus D1? What makes brute forcing a plurality elimination through on Titus something that scum NEEDED to do? What is their motive for doing that above all other options? There was in fact a risk in having done so.
Multiple, in fact.
Titus under pressure could've hard-towned it up to the point where players thought the wagon on her was terrible, resulting in a flash-wagon literally anywhere else. It's not like there wasn't time available. There were plenty of townies around posting near the deadline time. If they saw that Titus was the lead wagon and thought Titus was towning it up so strongly that she shouldn't be the elimination, they could band together and compromise on votes they otherwise would not have made, with people they otherwise would not compromise with.
Even IF that didn't happen, Titus could have also done what amounts to a venge-kill and asked, begged, for the town to promise to listen to her with a town player actually listening--Bingle and myself and Fairy Circle are all slots that had a fairly high chance of doing precisely that and martyring Titus and using her death to pressure Norwee/T3/Dwlee.
You're saying it wasn't a risk because it ended up that nobody did this--but that's using future knowledge to justify past actions.
What AT THE TIME justfied it?
What AT THE TIME made it necessary?
What AT THE TIME made it something they felt they NEEDED to do and thought was the ONLY thing they could do?
Because there were tangible risks to this that you're brushing off as "that didn't happen so therefore there wasn't a risk, the reward was that they got away with it until now".
In post 3159, Aristeia wrote:There is very little difference between voting someone out and nightkilling them.
There still ARE differences though.
Nightkills have far less accountability and are overall more in control of the scum--scum have
some
accountability in needing plausible claims, but are under no obligation to trueclaim every shot. (See also: nobody has claimed the fatal shot on Fairy Circle last night when we know it couldn't have been FC or Bingle, thus, scum did it.) Nightkills are thus still scum-favored/oriented overall mechanics-wise.
Eliminations have full accountability and are still mostly driven by the town--scum have
some
control via their votes, but they fundamentally do not hold the majority. They need to get town to eliminate town. They need to make allies and they need to make town vote town and they need for their stances to make sense and for their stances to flow in a way that doesn't give away their scum agendas.
I will admit that IF they are the scumteam, they did indeed get away with just that.
But it does require the 'if' there--and the proposed scenario relies on a set of things happening the scumteam could fundamentally NOT have controlled the entire time.
The scumteam could not control the town into not flash-wagoning a slot other than Titus.
The scumteam could not control the town into ignoring Titus's reads.
The scumteam could not control the town into ignoring the day-end wagon.
The scumteam could not control the town into not thinking about their stances on Titus.
The scumteam could not control my reevaluation coming into D3 and me thinking that the scumteam is not any of Dwlee/T3/Norwee (as shown by how I almost entered today with a 1v1 with Dwlee who was a top suspect coming into D3 for me!).
The scumteam could not even, from D1, control D3 being lylo! (Although this is the one they have the most control over, it's not infallible.)
The scumteam could make
plans
to
hope
that these happened.
And IF the scumteam IS T3-Dwlee-Norwee, those things WOULD have happened.
But the scumteam could not have
controlled
them to happen.
They could try to make them happen--but you're not presenting the evidence of them trying to make those things happen. You're saying it happened and that the scum basically hope and prayed for it to happen and then lucked out with it ending up actually happening.
And even if they DID try to make it happen (which I don't see evidence of), they had no guarantee it WOULD happen.
I reiterate my stance of a scumteam made up of Norwee, T3, and Dwlee requiring a combination of good planning and godly luck. Because for them to be scum, it requires them to have executed their plan basically flawlessly and get lucky in the best possible outcome for them, something they did not have much possible control over, much possible influence over.
In post 3160, Aristeia wrote:They are getting away with it right now since you're about to vote me out and hand them the game win on a platter. Why would scum!them decide not to take the easy win?
This is yet again taking modern knowledge of D3 to justify an action on D1. And again, that doesn't hold up.
D1 actions need D1 justifications.
And there's precious few for a T3-Norwee-Dwlee scumteam to act the way they did.
In post 3161, Aristeia wrote:If you want to just assume the scum team is "low effort" and the town team is "high effort" why do you even sign up for games? why even read anything? Meta is imperfect. I'm sure you could win lots of games by blindly following meta.
Oh sure meta is imperfect, but it is still a tool.
One which is multilayered here. Site meta suggests that your proposed team is incredibly unlikely and player meta also suggests that your proposed team is incredibly unlikely. That, aside from how 2/3 of the slots individually look town on their own merits. Yes, Norwee and T3 voted out both town, but town can be wrong in their suspicions and think that a town player is scum.
What makes Norwee and T3's suspicions be from scum rather than be from wrong-town? That's something you've not given a good answer for, other than the flawed narrative of "the players they voted thought they were scum", which there's numerous issues with. Among them chronology for Limit and the motive not holding up for Titus.
Norwee's play looks like town.
T3's play looks like town.
Their interactions don't look scum-scum.
Meta backs up them not being scum.
Site meta backs them being incredibly unlikely to be scum.
All of those tools reach the same conclusion: Norwee-T3-Dwlee is an unlikely scumteam.
It is not
impossible
for all of the tools to be wrong. And if they are wrong, it is because you were correct. The improbable stacking up with the improbable happened to be true and occur. The scumteam did the things they did, hoping it'd work out for them, and it ended up working out for them.
But it IS something that is
improbable
.
I keep crunching the numbers--I literally went to sleep last night thinking of this game. I literally thought about it for hours in my sleep as I was dreaming. I considered the various angles and they all said the same thing. "Not impossible, sure. But requires various BIG gambles that they had no way of knowing would pay off, happening to pay off."
It also requires RCEnigma to be town here--when honestly? I struggle to see this as an RCEnigma towngame. You might argue that RCEnigma is demotivated town, resigned to a loss, who knows he's not going to win the game so isn't bothering to try, and is thus apathetic.
But that flies in the face of what I know about RCEnigma. That attitude
fits his scumgame, sure, but not his towngame. I've looked into even games where he was more apathetic, and even in those, he had a fire to him absent from this one. I literally looked over like 10 towngames and in none of them could I find the defeatist apathetic lifeless RCEnigma that I see in this game, whereas that was basically immediately apparent in his scumgame.
And it also flies in the face of the meta I gathered on you, which I already talked about.
And it also flies in the face of the fact that RCEnigma has done nothing which looks town this game. Tell me, what makes RCEnigma be town here? What makes his slot be town? That other slots are scum? That apathy is something you think is town from him when apathy is in fact not a towntell and is in fact usually if anything a scumtell?
And it also flies in the face of VCA--a T3/Dwlee/Norwee scumteam means that no scum ever received any threatening amount of votes the entire game. That sort of scumteam which receives no votes is NOT a scumteam incentivized to be top posters/top contributors. Yes, you can argue that being top posters contributing heaviest MADE them not get votes, but that doesn't answer the question of why they would be incentivized and motivated to be at the top like that.
And even if they had the incentive to do so, it's not a guarantee they would succeed. Efforting as scum is more exhaustive. Efforting as scum takes more out of you than efforting as town, ESPECIALLY long-term. You can get away with efforting for one day phase as scum. Efforting for THREE day phases in a ROW is, on the other hand, much much much harder, nigh-impossible, for scum to do. Not actually impossible, sure. But highly improbable.
And this also applies for why, after having done the effort and been under no threat, the scumteam felt the need to be the ones pushing through eliminations rather than letting the town do the eliminations for them--why did the scum need to force through eliminations when the town was already eliminating itself without their help?
We wagoned Bingle to L-2.
We wagoned Fairy Circle to L-1.
Even without Norwee, T3, and Dwlee, The Limit Does Not Exist had three votes on them, placing them at L-3 without the alleged scumteam, which by plurality would've been nigh-guaranteed to be enough for the elimination to go through
without
the help of scum.
Why did the scumteam feel a need to directly force through a town elimination when they could get away with letting the town eliminate town without having lifted a hand at all?
All of this builds up.
It adds up.
Any one of these could be wrong.
But for each that is wrong, you are asking me to pile on improbability after improbability and requiring me to go with less likely answers that are more of a stretch and require more leaps in logics and which are statistically anomalies and going with things that simply put, just...collectively, don't make sense as being the case.
Sure, if Norwee is scum here, I am pocketed, that is true and a self-apparent fact. If Norwee-T3-Dwlee is the scumteam I get a dunce cap for having singlehandedly cost the town the game. If Norwee is scum, then I am currently pocketed, sure.
But that does nothing to address my question/argument:
How did Norwee
know
that he would pocket me?
He
couldn't
have known.
I asked how Norwee could have predicted I would townread all three of Norwee/T3/Dwlee going into lylo.
You responded that I am pocketed.
That takes current gamestate into past actions and doesn't serve to address the question.
It may be fact that if Norwee is scum I am pocketed here, sure!
That does nothing to break the pocket because my question was directly asking how he could generate that gamestate. I asked how he could rely on me to be pocketed.
You said that him 100% townreading me was his attempt to do that.
But I've pointed out that him saying that had 0% of an impact on my read of his slot.
So how could he have known that I was going to townread him?
I keep looking and the answer remains the same.
For Norwee to be scum requires a sequence of unlikely events where he was hoping things would come true and lucked out big time with them ending up being true in spite of him being unable to control them. I don't think that is an unfair assessment. I don't think that even an arrogant-Norwee-scum could in his arrogance think it pure skill and would be the first to admit to having lucked out. But Norwee-scum does require precisely that.
For the unlikely chain of events to be the case and for him to have lucked out in them having worked out in his favor in spite of how at every turn there were multiple ways for him to be caught, for him to fail, for him to end up being caught.
In contrast, what it takes for RCEnigma to be scum is fairly simple: town fighting town, not realizing they are fighting town, and scum doing basically nothing.
In post 3166, Aristeia wrote:LOGIC: When you kill people who suspect you by voting them out, there are
fewer
people who suspect you later, this allows you to win the game.
This doesn't actually hold true.
When you kill people who suspect you by voting them out, their suspicions are immortalized. They don't have any chance to change their suspicion.
Players who were wrong before meanwhile have time to reevaluate and reassess their reads. At any stage, a deepwolf could have their town credit shot to oblivious by a shifting in the POE and a degradation in the towncred they were given. After all, both your slot (Emperor) and Datisi topped the townreads of most players early-on. Yet there's plenty of suspicion on them now, in spite of lacking it early.
Again--how would the scum have the ability to control the lylo slots' suspicions being less on them than other slots after reevaluation and paranoia set in? They fundamentally cannot.
You're arguing for the scumteam to have taken an action that factually doesn't actually hold up as true. Because voting players suspecting you out does not in fact make fewer people suspect you later, as the slots that were suspicious of you before are immortalized in having that suspicion without a chance to say otherwise and the slots who weren't suspicious of you before can and do reevaluate to regain suspicion.
And even IF it held true--the motive is flawed. I've pointed out numerous ways the planned strategy could have failed and was prone to exactly that and had a high chance of backfiring.
We know that IF Norwee-T3-Dwlee are the scumteam that the proposed planned strategy didn't fail and didn't backfire and that in spite of the flaws in the motive that they ended up going through with it. Again, basically god-tiered luck by making a high-risk play that happened to be rewarded highly.
But that doesn't change that the proposed scumteam would need to have taken an action that doesn't actually inherently help them, as a (flawed) motive for their play, which doesn't match prior experience with their modus operandi, which has multiple failure conditions at every step of the way.
In post 3167, Aristeia wrote:That is what a highly active town team in control of the thread looks like. Look at this game's graveyard. Do you see a single flipped scum? That is a giant flashing neon sign that the people in control of the thread are NOT the town.
This is an argument you should know has flaws in it.
Namely: not every game with an active town ends up with dead scum.
Your argument here is basically, "active town in some games have eliminated scum early, this game has no eliminated scum early, and thus the players most active are scum".
But that ignores countless towngames where the town was active but
didn't
eliminate scum early
in spite of
being in control of the thread. Town can be in control of the game and still eliminate town.
So:
What makes this active scum rather than town active that didn't eliminate scum early?
You've given me nothing there.
In post 3167, Aristeia wrote:The
best
way to play scum is to be bold, to be brazen, to take control of the thread and kill town over and over until they don't have any room to breathe
Aside from how that's something that is not really true, let's humor the argument:
Just because you believe this:
What makes Norwee believe this?
What makes T3 believe this?
What makes Dwlee believe this?
For the proposed scumteam to be true, all three would have to believe your viewpoint and NOT believe mine.
And then, even if they DID all believe it to be true, you run into an additional problem:
How could Norwee, as scum, manage to pull this off when he has previously been unable to over a long span of time?
How could Dwlee, as scum, continuously manage to pull this off?
How could T3, as scum, continuously manage to pull this off?
Just because you know the theoretical advantages of efforting does not mean you can necessarily do so, especially over a long duration of time.
The scumteam you propose requires ALL of that. For ALL of Norwee/T3/Dwlee to believe efforting is the most important thing to do AND for them to then be able to pull it off.
Just because you might want to effort as scum does not mean you can effort as scum--but if Norwee/T3/Dwlee are scum here then they managed to, over a long period of time, consistently do precisely that. In spite of how much burnout playing scum is, especially back to back as would be necessary for Norwee/Dwlee to be scum.
Norwee/Dwlee were already fatigued from Open Draft Mafia, burned out from that--so for them to have topped activity charts in THIS game would require them to somehow have not burnt out at all and shown zero fatigue, zero slowdown, in their play over the entirety of the game, in spite of them efforting harder than they did in Open Draft Mafia.
