Newbie 2077 : The Curse of a Blue Diamond!! - Gameover

[kennyk]

Or Kenny if Pav is JK.

And what if Pav is "just" VT?

[kennyk]

what gives me pause is kenny's adamancy that a PR may have claimed VT at a time where it didn't benefit scum at all to say so, + it was a weird viewpoint to have
does this make sense with rolecop!kenny? it does, but it also makes sense with JK!kenny. let me rolefish for a second

Why just the upper part? Don't you like to be called Killer Queen?

Yes, I agree with you on this but my experience here is holding me back tbh. A wagon which is formatting without strong resistance (specially on Day 1) has much more chance to flip as town rather than scum fmpov +

they also are an old player.

Even if I think Entel is their scum partner, hence no other wagon is formed and no resistance is formatting at the current wagon,

as an experienced one,

scum!kenny could be play the whole thing differently imo.

(conflating 'experienced' with 'old' when only one was the case)
and then like, stuff like this

i can't be sure that these two people were inside a PT at one point.

Also i hope you’re ready for an "oh my god, they killed Kenny! You bastards!" joke if you ever die here.

quote above makes me want to go the other way in my current stance (i've seen in other games where scum will talk about other scum being flipped in order to fakespew them as town) but

Also i hope you’re ready for an "oh my god, they killed Kenny! You bastards!" joke if you ever die here.

Where are my manners? A very warm welcome to our new norwegian friend.

And of course I am ready for that. That is exactly where my account name originates.

the response. are they distancing, even when casually conversing?

Why did you quote my "Killer Queen" post?

I guess the old/experienced thing might be due to Salsa not being a native english speaker.

The "they killed Kenny" joke really was the origin of my account name. And I guess norwee looked up the old games I mentioned and got the intended pun.

[Pavowski]

I wonder if somebody smarter than me could articulate a reason why JK shouldn't reveal today. Seems like on balance the chance to get scum #2 today (if jk targeted their scum read) or to confirm 2 players (jk and their protect) is a chance worth taking against giving scum the target.

[cowsloveSushirolls]

Why did you quote my "Killer Queen" post?

i felt like that part of the post signified that it wasn't artificially made to put shade on a scumbuddy

[cowsloveSushirolls]

err it wasn't actually shade but my brain's too foggy to find the right word for it

here's the post again

People I'd like to hear from before putting my vote back:

Salsa (V/LA should be up today)
catboi
Entellian himself (though that may not be possible...)

And everyone else, of course, but those are the main ones.

I absolutely agree with you, that hearing their point of view would be good. But why not from Save the Dragons (I just noticed that using just the first letters of those three words is no good way to shorten his name) or floo? They didn't respond to this matter either.

I sadly guess you are right about Entellian. And I think Salsa won't change her tripple vote on me either (maybe only by adding more votes. Maybe I am listening to Queen too much [is that even possible?], but it might be she just did what she did, because she's the 'Killer Queen').

I like the upper part of this post.

[kennyk]

I wonder if somebody smarter than me could articulate a reason why JK shouldn't reveal today. Seems like on balance the chance to get scum #2 today (if jk targeted their scum read) or to confirm 2 players (jk and their protect) is a chance worth taking against giving scum the target.

You need someone smarter than you? Here I am.

The first thing is that we can't be 100 % sure we have a JK. It could be (although I think it is unlikely) that our last remaining scum thought it would be better to not nightkill anyone. In that scenario we could have a tracker and no JK right now.

In the (in my head at least 95 %-) scenario of a JK who was successful this night, the JK could have choosen the remaining scum or the scum kill-target to receive the no kill result. So if player a) is the JK and targeted player b) and no one is killed, we don't know if b) is scum or c) who targeted b). So if player a) reveals him being JK and targeting b) we still don't know what to do. Elim b) or not? If a) targeted scum it is good to elim b), if not we are on day 4 with a 4 to 1 and our last power role gone instead of a 6 to 1 we are now in. This is still not bad, but not good either.

The JK could reveal his motive for his action (either protecting an innocent or trying to target mafia). In both cases it is dependant on the read on his target. And if that read is faulty, we either get a seemingly proven innocent scum or an innocent elim with a nightkill of our JK.

If the JK had a scumread but wants to confirm it before revealing there are many possible ways to try to do that, but as I see it, everyone has a counterstrategy for scum if they know what the JK wants to do.

As i wrote the lines above I thought of a scenario where it isn't as unlikely as I first thought, that we have a tracker. What if scum is afraid of a tracker setup. If our scum is tracked and the tracker not killed it is game over for scum the next day (with a counterclaim he could maybe prolong it one day further, but that doesn't matter). So maybe mafia rolecop is quite confident to get town elims until our tracker or the also possible JK is gone. IIRR there where quite a few of us hinting at sussing Uranus if norwee flipped red. So with such a train already halfway on the track in twilight this could be a possible thought process for a lonely mafia player being not Uranus/Strange. I don't think this is still way more unlikely as a JK being lucky, but still possible.

[Radical Rat]

I wonder if somebody smarter than me could articulate a reason why JK shouldn't reveal today. Seems like on balance the chance to get scum #2 today (if jk targeted their scum read) or to confirm 2 players (jk and their protect) is a chance worth taking against giving scum the target.

Because if JK reveals, correct play basically no matter what is to eliminate their target. Scum could have intentionally no killed precisely to make that happen, while also outing the JK or potentially Tracker. And that's probably the move I would have made if I were scum.

Also, if the JK managed to protect someone, then again, we have to eliminate there to be sure, and then that only gives the JK one more chance to hit scum or they're dead and nothing can protect them. So the "confirm 2 players" option doesn't actually work out that way in practice.

That said, JK does need to claim eventually, and the above can happen no matter when they do, so the precise timing is somewhat WIFOM. I actually had another reason, but that didn't come to pass, so. Might as well go for it...

[Radical Rat]

I'm the JK.
StD N1
kenny N2

I didn't want to claim yet, because I wanted to see if scum would try to be wacky and fakeclaim it, but everyone's posted now and that didn't happen.

[Radical Rat]

Everything I said regarding kenny is my genuine thought process, but I was hoping scum would kill, thus hardclearing kenny and freeing me from my tunnel. I know it goes against my own targeting suggestion, but I just had to have an answer on kenny.

[Save The Dragons]

hmm

[cowsloveSushirolls]

Wild

[kennyk]

Everything I said regarding kenny is my genuine thought process, but I was hoping scum would kill, thus hardclearing kenny and freeing me from my tunnel. I know it goes against my own targeting suggestion, but I just had to have an answer on kenny.

Now knowing that you protected me makes me wish there was a kill last night. As I stated earlier I am now in one scenario the scum, in one the scum target and in a third scum didn't try to kill one (which means NAI on me). I really don't like those odds.

[Radical Rat]

Sure, but the problem is I don't think those scenarios are of equal probability.
If scum were to kill, I would have expected a kill outside of established claims. I also wouldn't expect you specifically to be targeted, because despite being generally townread, I think your slot's been controversial enough that you'd be worth keeping around for mislim bait.

The no kill outcome is very possible, and as I've said is the move I'd probably make as scum in this situation. But even so, I scumread you for plenty of other reasons, so that doesn't really deter me.

[StrangeMatter]

Can we get a VC please? I need to check and make sure of something.

This game has been secondary for me and I can't really elaborate on this.

[Save The Dragons]

@Mod: V/LA 9/15-9/20

[kennyk]

Sure, but the problem is I don't think those scenarios are of equal probability.
If scum were to kill, I would have expected a kill outside of established claims. I also wouldn't expect you specifically to be targeted, because despite being generally townread, I think your slot's been controversial enough that you'd be worth keeping around for mislim bait.

The no kill outcome is very possible, and as I've said is the move I'd probably make as scum in this situation. But even so, I scumread you for plenty of other reasons, so that doesn't really deter me.

I guess my statement could have been a bit misunderstandable. I was quite selfish. I don't like the odds for myself. I know the winning conditions for townies are "you win when town wins" but who doesn't want to be alive until the end? Yes, the town odds are bad in this situation, too, because I know what I am.

[cowsloveSushirolls]

i don't think we're in a particularly bad spot, though

3 shots, i have 3 potential condemns pinned down. the rest are just billboard town

[kennyk]

unofficial Vote Count 3-1

Save The Dragons

:

Pavowski

:

kennyk

: Pav (1427), Radical (1441)

StrangeMatter

:

cowsloveSushirolls

: LQ (1423),

Radical Rat

:

LicketyQuickety

:

Not Voting

(5): Save The Dragons, kennyk, StrangeMatter, cowsloveSushirolls

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to eliminate.

[Radical Rat]

Another option has occurred to me.

We could let kenny live, for now, while I continue to jail him, and we eliminate elsewhere. If kenny's scum, no nightkills can happen, and he can be safely eliminated in elo.
If kenny's not scum, then the real scum has to choose between continuing to not kill, guaranteeing a win in elo, if they can survive the four attempts town has to hit them first, or killing me, confirming kenny's innocence in the process and sacrificing a guaranteed elo win for only needing to survive three eliminations instead of four.

This may actually be optimal, though if I'm right on kenny I don't really like the idea of just eliminating townies for the sake of it, if I'm wrong then limming kenny seems to put us in an objectively worse spot than not doing so.

[Pavowski]

Well, that's interesting, Rat.

All of it.

Especially your last post.

Pondering this over some tacos.

[ArcAngel9]

Vote Count 3-1

Save The Dragons

:

Pavowski

:

kennyk

: Pavowski, Radical Rat

StrangeMatter

:

cowsloveSushirolls

:

Radical Rat

:

LicketyQuickety

:

Not Voting

(8): Save The Dragons,kennyk , StrangeMatter, LicketyQuickety, cowsloveSushirolls

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to eliminate.

Deadline: September, 20th, 2021

Countdown: (expired on 2021-09-20 15:50:00)

Mod Notes:
Save the Dragons is on V/LA until 09/20

-

[Pavowski]

I personally don't love the idea of burning time until ELO jailing Kenny, but I'm impatient like that.

I also don't trust the idea of a non-killing scum; the villager pool is large enough that hanging back from fear of being tracked doesn't really, well, track to me. (ie with 7 people alive, I'd make the kill, and if the tracker got me, then call it gg).

Simpler solutions tend to be righter. Combine this with kenny being off the wagon yesterday... I think this is a good lim.

Kinda curious to see how this plays with LQ's super sekrit calculations, but...

The tacos, heavy in my gut, have compelled me to stay where I am.

[cowsloveSushirolls]

kill kenny, jail strange for free win!

[cowsloveSushirolls]

kill kenny, jail strange for free win!

(but you know, i prefer the other way around)

[LicketyQuickety]

VOTE: Kenny

RR's reasons for SRing Kenny are pretty legit when I poked them about it.