Newbie 2077 : The Curse of a Blue Diamond!! - Gameover

[LicketyQuickety]

VOTE: Kenny

RR's reasons for SRing Kenny are pretty legit when I poked them about it.

That's E-1.

[Pavowski]

Humbly requesting STD place a vote before you v/la out.

Or CLS could just hammer here.

[LicketyQuickety]

Humbly requesting STD place a vote before you v/la out.

Or CLS could just hammer here.

I'm not really in favor of a hammer yet.

[LicketyQuickety]

Actually, I don't really get what's the hurry here.

Why are you in a hurry for an Elim Pav?

[kennyk]

I did some thinking about this game while trying to get to sleep last night. And I have come to the solution that the best way for the rest of town would actually be liming me today. As I am town I know there are better options to an elim (from my point of view it is everyone else) but here are my thoughts (all from the perspective of any other town player):
If I am really scum elimming me is just a square and easy win.

If I am town and I somehow live through the day Radical might target me again N3 because he thinks I am scum. In this case he is very likely to be killed by the real mafia guy. We start D4 with a 5 on 1 or 4 on 1 (depending on if we lim or nolim today).

If i am town and limmed today Radical is again very likely the kill target for N3. But this time he he has a chance to target the rmaining scum himself and by that saving himself. True, it is a small chance and scum might even pull the no kill trick (again?) but I don't think that's a good way to play it throgh as scum.

I know that this post is very likely going to be one of my last posts, but even in my eyes eliminating me is the best way for town from a neutral point of view. But as I know I am town I won't selfhammer.

[kennyk]

And to add some further reads on other players, I now have some serious doubts about Pav. His first post after dawn was voting me. Was that mafia trying to kill me in the previous night and after not succeding trying to lim me the next day? To add things I think it is also highly suspicious that you tries to fasthammer me.

[kennyk]

One more thing in my defence:
My last post before I left for a few days was 1330. The first vote on norwee was in post 1334 (later cls unvoted as the train got speed but hammering in the end). So at the time of my last post the train was on Uranus (me not on it, too). So some here try to add the fact that I didn't hop on a train that didn't even have started when I left on my negative side.

[LicketyQuickety]

Okay, I feel Elimming Kenny today is the best move. Reason for this is that if Kenny is Scum, then it's game over. However, this should cause RR to reevaluate if Kenny is Town.

So let me ask RR: In the case that we Elim Kenny and Kenny flips Town, who are you going to target? I feel making this known is the best thing to do at this point since Town will know who is clear if you get NKed. OTOH, I really can't see StD as Scum now that Norwee flipped Scum. So I would suggest at least targeting away from StD. My pick for you to target would be Pav.

[kennyk]

So let me ask RR: In the case that we Elim Kenny and Kenny flips Town, who are you going to target? I feel making this known is the best thing to do at this point since Town will know who is clear if you get NKed.

This sounds like a good plan. But please keep the following things in mind:
It is true that if Radical names a person as his night target and he is nightkilled, that said person is cleared. Only if Radical didn't target said person this would not work. But I can't see why Radical should do that.
But keep in mind that this doesn't mean, that if there is no nightkill, that said person is scum. You will be in the same position as you are now. Was the targeted person also targeted by scum (which doesn't make too much sense, since a protection anouncement was made) or was the targeted person scum not being able to NK or did scum just not perform his NK to muddy the water further?

I also want to point out that if I get elimmed before Radical has a chance to comment on this plan, the person who hammers me is highly suspicious.

[Radical Rat]

Okay, I feel Elimming Kenny today is the best move. Reason for this is that if Kenny is Scum, then it's game over. However, this should cause RR to reevaluate if Kenny is Town.

So let me ask RR: In the case that we Elim Kenny and Kenny flips Town, who are you going to target? I feel making this known is the best thing to do at this point since Town will know who is clear if you get NKed. OTOH, I really can't see StD as Scum now that Norwee flipped Scum. So I would suggest at least targeting away from StD. My pick for you to target would be Pav.

I agree, StD is probably Town, and Pavowski is the best target.
Everyone else is pretty firmly Town in my mind, so we benefit most from confirming that slot.

[Radical Rat]

If everyone agrees that it's better to eliminate kenny now rather than later, and no one objects to me jailing Pav, then I'm alright with a hammer whenever.

[kennyk]

If everyone agrees that it's better to eliminate kenny now rather than later, and no one objects to me jailing Pav, then I'm alright with a hammer whenever.

Of course I want to object to eliminating me (either now nor later), but I guess my voice is not counting in this case.

From my point of view Pav seems to be a good choice, too.

[Pavowski]

Good points this morning.

I'm not in a hurry to hammer, but given rat's claim, we have one question to answer today. (Well, maybe 2.)

Is rat lying? If so, he's scum, the real jk should cc. We lim one today, one tomorrow, and we win. If not, the 2nd question.

Did rat jail scum to force the no-nk or did scum no-nk on their own?

I've said already I don't think scum skips their chance to whittle down the town so for me the overwhelming vote is on Kenny. But if they did, Kenny has kindly given us a way to get some more mileage out of rat before he's NK'd tonight.

Paradoxically, this gives Kenny town points but also makes me think we need to kill him to be sure we're not in one of the (fmpov) more likely scenarios.

And if Kenny is town, rat should jail whomever (jailing goes thru even if JK is killed, unless scum is jailed, right?). Jk me if you want, but I'd be looking at strange if the game goes another day.

[Pavowski]

I will also point out, though, that rat announcing his target for tonight gives scum an opportunity to no-kill again to frame that person, so be on the lookout for that if, in fact, rat does choose to jail me.

Again that assumes we make it that far, which I'm not sure is a foregone conclusion. I still think it's a good chance game is over with a hammer here. But by all means talk it out first.

[cowsloveSushirolls]

I will also point out, though, that rat announcing his target for tonight gives scum an opportunity to no-kill again to frame that person, so be on the lookout for that if, in fact, rat does choose to jail me.

well then we know more about our enemy, don't we

but i wanna point out that if kenny is town, we lim them and we see that green flip, then it's a save/no kill alright whatever we know that by POE

does mafia actually no kill here and give town an extra condemn? even if town is going to waste it on town?

save --> points to strange who might not known the optimal kill since you know, they had a single night (and a couple of rolecop checks) to read the game and figure it out
NK --> ?????

why would scum NK if there's still the chance of a tracker? do they win a 3 miscondemn game with a tracker in it?

do they win in this world?

[LicketyQuickety]

RR pretty much has to JK tonight if they want a shot at not dying. Killing JK is number 1 priority for Scum at this point.

Also, pretty sure JK goes before NK, so if RR misses, then it's a free kill on JK. Having a confirmed Town is really bad for Scum. And given everyone is TRing me, and everyone should be TRing StD, then I'd say this is just about Auto for Town.

[kennyk]

Good points this morning.

I'm not in a hurry to hammer, but given rat's claim, we have one question to answer today. (Well, maybe 2.)

Is rat lying? If so, he's scum, the real jk should cc. We lim one today, one tomorrow, and we win. If not, the 2nd question.

Did rat jail scum to force the no-nk or did scum no-nk on their own?

I've said already I don't think scum skips their chance to whittle down the town so for me the overwhelming vote is on Kenny. But if they did, Kenny has kindly given us a way to get some more mileage out of rat before he's NK'd tonight.

Paradoxically, this gives Kenny town points but also makes me think we need to kill him to be sure we're not in one of the (fmpov) more likely scenarios.

And if Kenny is town, rat should jail whomever (jailing goes thru even if JK is killed, unless scum is jailed, right?). Jk me if you want, but I'd be looking at strange if the game goes another day.

I guess the first question is more or less rhetorical. A scum fakeclaim would be game over for mafia with six townies alive. There would have been a counterclaim (JK or tracker) if Radical lied. And even if the counterclaim was limmed today, Radical NKed one of us the next night and it would have been a sure lim of Radical tomorrow.

The second question is not complete. Radical could have jailed scum or the scum target or scum no-NKed on their own. So it is three options. And one of them is, that scum tried to NK me while radical protected me.

What would be the point of a jailing going through if Radical is NKed tonight? So lets say scum targets Radical (with the kill, not the rolecopping) and Radical targets you. Radical is dead and you are jailed for the night. As there is no other possible night action, nothing can happen from or to your spot anyways.

[kennyk]

RR pretty much has to JK tonight if they want a shot at not dying. Killing JK is number 1 priority for Scum at this point.

Also, pretty sure JK goes before NK, so if RR misses, then it's a free kill on JK. Having a confirmed Town is really bad for Scum. And given everyone is TRing me, and everyone should be TRing StD, then I'd say this is just about Auto for Town.

It is only auto for town if and only if both the reads on you and StD are correct. I am not saying that I read one of you as scum, but reads are not certain in any way. I had Radical on my scummy list and am now very convinced he is not scum.

[cowsloveSushirolls]

Actually i’m going to say my townreads are something like Quick/Kenny
I took an look at STD’s previous games because i found his play to be really passive and sitting in the backseat this game and i’m not sure i’ve liked their tone. Eg; "i think you’re scum" is an recent example.

For Newbie 2073 which is their scumgame, they played in the same style of posts as here but that is of course. Not scum indicative by itself as it’s clearly just their playstyle. There is an noticeable difference with them putting in way more effort into longer quote walls in that game which could be seen as an effort at getting townread, which is much more lacking here. Although this game is in it’s early stages and from what i’ve seen STD hasn’t been given that much attention so far.
In their towngame of Large Normal 235 their play seems similar to here. Noticeably they start this and that game with immediately projecting an short summary of town/scum reads and retaining the same style of posts that are very concise and to the point. Not much quote walls and they don’t seem remotely emotional.

Actually considering these points up above, STD might not be as scummy as i felt, which was probably an feeling aggravated by their tone of immediate and continued scumreading of my slot upon entering the game and asking of rude questions/replies, which upon closer consideration does not seem to be beyond their town meta.

I’m not going to say i trust the slot now, as that is still far from something i feel comfortable to do. But i don’t scumread him. He is probably close to null now. Where i find him scummy for his interactions with me, but it is not something town!him couldn’t in theory do here.
I wanna keep him on the higher list of the PoE where because i don’t trust him but i also don’t think it’s the best lim for today because if town it doesn’t tell me much besides he read my slot wrong.

here
i think this is a good post when thinking about that pair of norwee and STD
i think it disproves it

[Radical Rat]

I will also point out, though, that rat announcing his target for tonight gives scum an opportunity to no-kill again to frame that person, so be on the lookout for that if, in fact, rat does choose to jail me.

This opportunity exists regardless of whether scum knows my target. I am the only viable NK target for scum that wants to win, and I can't protect myself, so that's not a concern for scum. They'll know ahead of time whether the kill will go through or not, but the actual decision whether to kill me or try to frame my target isn't affected.

[kennyk]

I will also point out, though, that rat announcing his target for tonight gives scum an opportunity to no-kill again to frame that person, so be on the lookout for that if, in fact, rat does choose to jail me.

Again that assumes we make it that far, which I'm not sure is a foregone conclusion. I still think it's a good chance game is over with a hammer here. But by all means talk it out first.

If you lim me it is a foregone conclusion. I would even bet you high sums of money if it wasn't against forum rules.

Btw. CLS, the money you set on me being JK is gone.

[Radical Rat]

Making my target known is only a good thing for Town, and I kinda don't like that attempt to shade it, but I suppose it doesn't matter much since you're getting confirmed one way or another tomorrow. If there even is a tomorrow.

[LicketyQuickety]

What would be the point of a jailing going through if Radical is NKed tonight? So lets say scum targets Radical (with the kill, not the rolecopping) and Radical targets you. Radical is dead and you are jailed for the night. As there is no other possible night action, nothing can happen from or to your spot anyways.

1. JK goes before NK. So if Pav is Town, then the kill will go through on RR, BUT...

A.) It keeps a confirmed Town in the game even if RR dies.
B.) It clears a slot that is fairly Scummy based on players reads on Pav.

2. However, If Scum choose to not NK, then:

A.) RR is still alive next game day.
B.) We elim the player that RR JK.

3. If the player who RR JK is Elimed and flips Town, then:

A.) We are down a player and we No-Elim in MeLo.
B.) Repeat 2.

4. If we get a repeat of MeLo, then:

A.) We Elim RR's JK the next time.

5. If we Elim Town in MeLo Then:

A.) RR has one more shot to get it right.

[kennyk]

I will also point out, though, that rat announcing his target for tonight gives scum an opportunity to no-kill again to frame that person, so be on the lookout for that if, in fact, rat does choose to jail me.

This opportunity exists regardless of whether scum knows my target. I am the only viable NK target for scum that wants to win, and I can't protect myself, so that's not a concern for scum. They'll know ahead of time whether the kill will go through or not, but the actual decision whether to kill me or try to frame my target isn't affected.

And what are the other options?
You don't tell who you are going to target, you are unlucky with your pick (which has a 80 % probability if I am limmed) and are NKed. In this case, we (or better: the remaining townies) know nothing. I don't think that is good at all.
You could also try and trick scum by telling us you would jail a) but in reality are jailing b). This could pay off but in case of you getting NKed it would confirm a) as town even if he is the remaining scum. In this case it will be an easy win for scum. I don't like this either.

[Radical Rat]

I will also point out, though, that rat announcing his target for tonight gives scum an opportunity to no-kill again to frame that person, so be on the lookout for that if, in fact, rat does choose to jail me.

This opportunity exists regardless of whether scum knows my target. I am the only viable NK target for scum that wants to win, and I can't protect myself, so that's not a concern for scum. They'll know ahead of time whether the kill will go through or not, but the actual decision whether to kill me or try to frame my target isn't affected.

And what are the other options?
You don't tell who you are going to target, you are unlucky with your pick (which has a 80 % probability if I am limmed) and are NKed. In this case, we (or better: the remaining townies) know nothing. I don't think that is good at all.
You could also try and trick scum by telling us you would jail a) but in reality are jailing b). This could pay off but in case of you getting NKed it would confirm a) as town even if he is the remaining scum. In this case it will be an easy win for scum. I don't like this either.

Which is precisely why I am not doing either of those things.

Though I did briefly consider the tricky option, I'm not willing to bet on scum no killing. It'd certainly be a lot of fun if it worked out, but it's not worth chasing a weird scenario like that with such a high risk.