Final Fantasy XIV - A Realm Reborn Mafia (Game Over)

[Mystic Bears]

It's d1 but he seems to have the confidence of having an ELO-1 read.

- House

Eh I don't LIKE the push but i don't think its like definitely scummy. Like yeah the push is big meh but like confidence is often is exaggerated? Or at least lately I've been realizing i have been exaggerating my own confidence levels in mafia games. No idea why.

-norbearbear

Strange that you're dinging me for that instead of pointing out where they stated they're not that confident in their read.

I can certainly understand voting a read I'm not confident in, but actively calling for blood on someone they not only are not confident about, but have a known history of pushing mislims on that they themselves introduce to the game?

C'mon...

- House

That's exactly the reason I am dinging you. I remember explicitly saying i wasn't confident but then doubling down and being like this person is 200% scum in town games. Like it's not scummy. It's just your mind feeling like you need to exaggerate things to build up a wagon when you
1) probably don't need to
and
2) look scummy doing it and shouldn't be doing it

but that's the issue. It's not scummy.

-bearbearbear

[Mystic Bears]

Mystic Bears (Noraa + Flea the Magician) - Probably Scum

So you think I'm scum WITH Dwelee and Mirio? Yeah so I'm just casually whiteknighting one of my buddies for no reason when they're not even in danger of elimination. I'm also just running around calling my other buddy scum but not giving anyone reasons. Like that would be the most obviously scummy thing to do and associations would all look shit later in the game but you believe that????

-nornormightbelatetothewagon

[Mystic Bears]

It's d1 but he seems to have the confidence of having an ELO-1 read.

- House

Eh I don't LIKE the push but i don't think its like definitely scummy. Like yeah the push is big meh but like confidence is often is exaggerated? Or at least lately I've been realizing i have been exaggerating my own confidence levels in mafia games. No idea why.

-norbearbear

Strange that you're dinging me for that instead of pointing out where they stated they're not that confident in their read.

I can certainly understand voting a read I'm not confident in, but actively calling for blood on someone they not only are not confident about, but have a known history of pushing mislims on that they themselves introduce to the game?

C'mon...

- House

That's exactly the reason I am dinging you. I remember explicitly saying i wasn't confident but then doubling down and being like this person is 200% scum in town games. Like it's not scummy. It's just your mind feeling like you need to exaggerate things to build up a wagon when you
1) probably don't need to
and
2) look scummy doing it and shouldn't be doing it

but that's the issue. It's not scummy.

-bearbearbear

If this wasn't clear, it's explicitly that wavering and jumping from one extreme to another that I find very NAI or even towny depending on who it is. I could just be horribly wrong but I do it so much as town and get scum reads for it that i feel good saying its NAI at the very least.

-noraaaaaaa

[Dwlee99]

No Nora I think you're town

[Sakura Hana]

Here's the deal: we have to consolidate eventually somewhere. Game is lethargic. Aa9 is a fine choice to consolidate on because she is scummy af. Do I know she's scum? No. Am I super confident? No, because she has just always been scummy. She definitely is pinging my radar in a different way than she had before, though, so maybe I actually have calibrated my scumdar to be able to pick something up

>She has always been scummy every game

Ok, you also mention you mislim her every game, so like, why are you not trying to figure out what are the difference between her town and scum game so you dont mislim her anymore?

Unless you dont have to because you're scum

And this is something i've been meaning to ask you, but can you then in your own words tell me why is AA9

objectively scummy

?

[Mandelbrot]

It's d1 but he seems to have the confidence of having an ELO-1 read.

- House

Eh I don't LIKE the push but i don't think its like definitely scummy. Like yeah the push is big meh but like confidence is often is exaggerated? Or at least lately I've been realizing i have been exaggerating my own confidence levels in mafia games. No idea why.

-norbearbear

Strange that you're dinging me for that instead of pointing out where they stated they're not that confident in their read.

I can certainly understand voting a read I'm not confident in, but actively calling for blood on someone they not only are not confident about, but have a known history of pushing mislims on that they themselves introduce to the game?

C'mon...

- House

That's exactly the reason I am dinging you. I remember explicitly saying i wasn't confident but then doubling down and being like this person is 200% scum in town games. Like it's not scummy. It's just your mind feeling like you need to exaggerate things to build up a wagon when you
1) probably don't need to
and
2) look scummy doing it and shouldn't be doing it

but that's the issue. It's not scummy.

-bearbearbear

/disagree

They could easily be leaning on their meta of mislimming AA9 to either:

1) save a buddy that's currently being wagoned; or
2) distance

With dwlee bringing up their own meta of mislimming AA9, #2 is my current favorite, as from they're pov, they look like they, "finally got it right", and town is less likely to lim them if AA9 goes through.

If dwlee's history of always hounding AA9 had been brought up by anybody else, all of this wouldn't be so bad, but he's literally undermining his own credibility on an issue he claims to want.

- House

[Mandelbrot]

It's d1 but he seems to have the confidence of having an ELO-1 read.

- House

Eh I don't LIKE the push but i don't think its like definitely scummy. Like yeah the push is big meh but like confidence is often is exaggerated? Or at least lately I've been realizing i have been exaggerating my own confidence levels in mafia games. No idea why.

-norbearbear

Strange that you're dinging me for that instead of pointing out where they stated they're not that confident in their read.

I can certainly understand voting a read I'm not confident in, but actively calling for blood on someone they not only are not confident about, but have a known history of pushing mislims on that they themselves introduce to the game?

C'mon...

- House

That's exactly the reason I am dinging you. I remember explicitly saying i wasn't confident but then doubling down and being like this person is 200% scum in town games. Like it's not scummy. It's just your mind feeling like you need to exaggerate things to build up a wagon when you
1) probably don't need to
and
2) look scummy doing it and shouldn't be doing it

but that's the issue. It's not scummy.

-bearbearbear

/disagree

They could easily be leaning on their meta of mislimming AA9 to either:

1) save a buddy that's currently being wagoned; or
2) distance

With dwlee bringing up their own meta of mislimming AA9, #2 is my current favorite, as from they're pov, they look like they, "finally got it right", and town is less likely to lim them if AA9 goes through.

If dwlee's history of always hounding AA9 had been brought up by anybody else, all of this wouldn't be so bad, but they're literally undermining their own credibility on an issue they claims to want.

- House

Fix't

[Dwlee99]

Here's the deal: we have to consolidate eventually somewhere. Game is lethargic. Aa9 is a fine choice to consolidate on because she is scummy af. Do I know she's scum? No. Am I super confident? No, because she has just always been scummy. She definitely is pinging my radar in a different way than she had before, though, so maybe I actually have calibrated my scumdar to be able to pick something up

>She has always been scummy every game

Ok, you also mention you mislim her every game, so like, why are you not trying to figure out what are the difference between her town and scum game so you dont mislim her anymore?

Unless you dont have to because you're scum

And this is something i've been meaning to ask you, but can you then in your own words tell me why is AA9

objectively scummy

?

Just read her posts. They're scummy. And I have said something different is pinging me this game so I do have reason to think she is scum vs the other times.

[Dwlee99]

It's d1 but he seems to have the confidence of having an ELO-1 read.

- House

Eh I don't LIKE the push but i don't think its like definitely scummy. Like yeah the push is big meh but like confidence is often is exaggerated? Or at least lately I've been realizing i have been exaggerating my own confidence levels in mafia games. No idea why.

-norbearbear

Strange that you're dinging me for that instead of pointing out where they stated they're not that confident in their read.

I can certainly understand voting a read I'm not confident in, but actively calling for blood on someone they not only are not confident about, but have a known history of pushing mislims on that they themselves introduce to the game?

C'mon...

- House

That's exactly the reason I am dinging you. I remember explicitly saying i wasn't confident but then doubling down and being like this person is 200% scum in town games. Like it's not scummy. It's just your mind feeling like you need to exaggerate things to build up a wagon when you
1) probably don't need to
and
2) look scummy doing it and shouldn't be doing it

but that's the issue. It's not scummy.

-bearbearbear

/disagree

They could easily be leaning on their meta of mislimming AA9 to either:

1) save a buddy that's currently being wagoned; or
2) distance

With dwlee bringing up their own meta of mislimming AA9, #2 is my current favorite, as from they're pov, they look like they, "finally got it right", and town is less likely to lim them if AA9 goes through.

If dwlee's history of always hounding AA9 had been brought up by anybody else, all of this wouldn't be so bad, but they're literally undermining their own credibility on an issue they claims to want.

- House

So you think I'm scum and that I'm distancing/bussing Aa9, so you won't vote her?

If you think me being scum implies that Aa9 is scum, then she is probabilistically more likely to flip scum than me and you should be voting her.

[Dwlee99]

If P -> Q then Pr (P) <= Pr (Q) because Pr (P and Q) = Pr (P)

[Sakura Hana]

Just read her posts. They're scummy. And I have said something different is pinging me this game so I do have reason to think she is scum vs the other times.

What part of

in your own words

did you not understand?

[Dwlee99]

Those are my words

[Mandelbrot]

It's d1 but he seems to have the confidence of having an ELO-1 read.

- House

Eh I don't LIKE the push but i don't think its like definitely scummy. Like yeah the push is big meh but like confidence is often is exaggerated? Or at least lately I've been realizing i have been exaggerating my own confidence levels in mafia games. No idea why.

-norbearbear

Strange that you're dinging me for that instead of pointing out where they stated they're not that confident in their read.

I can certainly understand voting a read I'm not confident in, but actively calling for blood on someone they not only are not confident about, but have a known history of pushing mislims on that they themselves introduce to the game?

C'mon...

- House

That's exactly the reason I am dinging you. I remember explicitly saying i wasn't confident but then doubling down and being like this person is 200% scum in town games. Like it's not scummy. It's just your mind feeling like you need to exaggerate things to build up a wagon when you
1) probably don't need to
and
2) look scummy doing it and shouldn't be doing it

but that's the issue. It's not scummy.

-bearbearbear

/disagree

They could easily be leaning on their meta of mislimming AA9 to either:

1) save a buddy that's currently being wagoned; or
2) distance

With dwlee bringing up their own meta of mislimming AA9, #2 is my current favorite, as from they're pov, they look like they, "finally got it right", and town is less likely to lim them if AA9 goes through.

If dwlee's history of always hounding AA9 had been brought up by anybody else, all of this wouldn't be so bad, but they're literally undermining their own credibility on an issue they claims to want.

- House

So you think I'm scum and that I'm distancing/bussing Aa9, so you won't vote her?

If you think me being scum implies that Aa9 is scum, then she is probabilistically more likely to flip scum than me and you should be voting her.

I listed 2 possibilities.

You're the common denominator.

You flipping scum does not clear AA9 or vice versa.

- House

[Dwlee99]

It isn't about what clears, it's about what's more likely to you. If you think that me being scum makes Aa9 scum because I'm distancing or something, you should be voting her not me.

[Dwlee99]

The only buddy I could possibly be trying to save here is mom I guess? But given I'm completely fine with voting her I don't think that's the argument you should be making.

[Mandelbrot]

It isn't about what clears, it's about what's more likely to you. If you think that me being scum makes Aa9 scum because I'm distancing or something, you should be voting her not me.

Exactly. As YOU ARE THE COMMON DENOMINATOR, YOU ARE MOST LIKELY.

- House

[Dwlee99]

House I just explained how your logic makes me less likely to flip scum

[Dwlee99]

If P -> Q then Pr (P) <= Pr (Q) because Pr (P and Q) = Pr (P)

^^^

[Mandelbrot]

The only buddy I could possibly be trying to save here is mom I guess? But given I'm completely fine with voting her I don't think that's the argument you should be making.

It's not a terrible one for me to make at all, as scum frequently scumread a buddy but vote a townie, or scumread one buddy but bus a different one. Especially when they're undermining their own credibility in the process.

- House

[Dwlee99]

P = me being scum
Q = Arc being scum

P -> Q is that me being scum means Aa9 is scum.

[Dwlee99]

If I'm trying to save mom from being eliminated why would I purposefully bring up my terrible read rate on Aa9? How does that make any sense?

[Mandelbrot]

House I just explained how your logic makes me less likely to flip scum

No. You tried to manipulate me into picking one scenario over another when there are two different worlds that have you as scum in either scenario.

- House

[Dwlee99]

What you're doing is extremely partner!indicative with aa9 because you 1.) Chainsaw defended her by attacking me and 2.) You're voting me over someone you think I'm bussing if I'm scum

[Mandelbrot]

I refuse to ignore scenario 1 as a possibility.

- House

[Dwlee99]

The "saving mom from a lim" scenario doesn't make sense so yeah