Micro 1029: 8-Ball (but with Wolves) Game Over
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this is prolly town btwIn post 558, Taly wrote:Lmao thisthe worst V Bingleis so comical, it was not a 1v1 I would have foreseen to start off D2. I'll leave my commentary at that for tonight.
(Hint: I'm implying a read here.)
btw btw this isn't my actual catchup im just on a break-
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suppose i meant more about my slot as a whole
but i like what i see (^ω^ )
I skimmed random bits of the past few pages idly but i havent actually read-read yet
my predictiiiion is that Hiraki and Ali (Was it those two? At least Ali) got into a toxic TvT fight or something, and ali being town means e was a mislim
and like idk if Bingle defends Wisdom because "He's probably 8-ball" when that's unreasonable given D1 (I know at least Ali was obvious D1 lim) -- then maybe that makes worstie town and easy game bingle/wisdom. i dunno yet but just off the bat id guess that
Also i was kind of guessing town!House/ali anyway
thats why i was asking if its reasonable for one to think Wisdom may be the 8 ball-
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@page 22 - I've seen both Mom and Ali get limmed D1
Not saying they're easy but it's practical. I wish I had experience with Wisdom to get the whole context here! This playerlist is scary as fuck now that u point it out
I see, true. Although one of the players voting him was Ali, the player with 4 votes who you'd assume is the most likelyIn post 522, Bingle wrote:
Yes. Ali/Wis/Imagine we’re the EOD pushes. Taly brought that up already D2.In post 518, Morning Tweet wrote:Question to any: Is there any plausible reason that Wisdom may be the 8-Ball
Asking this for multiple reasons
Also, why was Ali not killed D1 exactly?-
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:( i dont taste goodIn post 527, Bingle wrote: I’ve never eaten bat. They seem like a poor culinary choice, tbh.
Okay, I see now. This is a bit less cut and dry. Wisdom did have second most votes, so it is plausible for Bingle to think he's 8-Ball at the very least on a surface lvlIn post 526, Bingle wrote:
Highest probability 8 balls are people under no suspicion D1 and person no one is pushing D2. Also I own the Golden Gate Bridge and would like to sell it to you.In post 521, the worst wrote:highest probability 8-balls fmpov are probably imaginality (doubly so if imaginality is scum), maybe momrangal. i'm weakly paranoid that i'm a decent 8-ball target here, but i'm not sure if that's compelling. it is possible to eliminate me, but i'm really cute, so it's kind of annoying.In post 480, House wrote:
Please tell me you're not still voting my slot on d2 after making this post on d1...In post 222, Wisdom wrote:No elims are bad
Scum now have the info to change the 8ball into someone likely getting limd whereas it was a blind guess in pregame
Let's just flip Ali
*goes to check*Lol
For the record, if I were scum, I always place the 8-ball on the obvious target. In my mind, that's like a 50/50. Town either goes for the obvious lim and thinks "No way scum picks the obvious target", or they go somewhere random. Closer to 1/2 odds rather than 1/7 or however many other targets there are, no? I guess context is important but i would never place the 8-ball on someone who like requires future seeing
Now, to be fair to Wisdom, if you think someone is scum, them being the 8-ball doesn't really matter. Although unsure if I'm sold on Ali/House
this is stupid I'm going to read from the start-
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page 5 probably less likely mom with wisdom
Also i think my only commentary up til then is that taly comes off as towny there too
pedit: ty House much appreciated
undecided on the imaginality push on Wisdom -- i dont believe in scumslips although i can believe that imaginality finds Wisdom's confidence in Taly!town too high
ali is being prickly and difficult rather than towny -- ali has been towny as scum for me in the past TBH
Taly probably just has to not say anything about Ali and ali gets limmed D1 it looks like sooo
I'm not seeing what Wisdom is seeing about imaginality's push on him being scummy (page 10, he said it twice now). Maybe it's a little hyper-focused and tunnely, but I'm not sure what the obvious scum motivation is for that, reads a bit more like town that starts to conf bias no? "Manipulative" is strong
ExactlyIn post 248, the worst wrote:i've missed wisdom but like, he's scary as scum and i don't see the imaginality stuff at all
Is it impossible imagine is scum, no, but does their push on Wisdom ring as actively more scummy, not really-
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265 is the plot twist of the century LMAO WHAT. There's no way imaginality as scum predetermined that move, the positioning on Wisdom was so steadfast, and now they're helping Wisdom's reads. Nuts. Towny, I think. I think it's a misread of Ali though
amazingly I think Wisdom just turned the tables on Ali and imagine at the same time bottom of page 11 and came out on top. I think the swap from imagine was towny but wrong, Wisdom thinks it's wrong, insinuates it's scummy, and keeps the pressure on both Ali/imagine in the process. completely optimal positioning if he's scum! And I agree with him that imagine's wrong about Ali -- I just got a different conclusion
That was pretty cool though. Seems sort of convenient for scum!Wisdom but at the same time very convincing since I don't exactly disagree with what he's saying (besides the conclusions)
! are u referring to the same thing I just pointed out by chance? No, I don't think so actually.In post 288, Taly wrote:
Read your ISO the past 2 pages, doll.In post 233, Wisdom wrote:Imaginality's tone still feels manipulative to me
I am definitely missing what is "Manipulative" about 262 according to imagine. I agree with Wisdom that it isn't. It reads to me like Ali is frustrated about being pushed and sort of blaming the pushers -- but im not sure how it's manipulative
Kind of townleaning imagine
WAIT WHATIn post 405, Bingle wrote:VOTE: ali
I don’t really trust this sudden shift to Wis, makes me worried he’s an 8 ball, tbh.
BINGLE SAID THIS ON DAY ONE?-
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Hang on hang on hang on
The first 8-ball is chosen during pre-game
What scumteam chooses Wisdom, aka the player who everyone in this game seems to unanimously agree is hardest to mislim, in the pregame?
Also, it's literally just Taly spearheading Wisdom and I think Taly is town anyway.
Who is the "sudden shift to Wisdom" referring to exactly?@Bingle-
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In post 417, Bingle wrote:So... Yeah. I think it's entirely reasonable that there was scum somewhere in {Taly/Alisae/duck/imaginality} and that was why the sudden interest in Wisdom at "the butt-ass last minute".-
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Taly your posts are too long ill read the really long ones going forward but its unlikely to happen from me tonight actually im about caught up nvm
I kind of feel bad if Wisdom is scum cause Ali's play (page 18) is just too hard for scum to go against lol. I don't think scum!Wisdom can concede Ali townIn post 485, House wrote:
Scum self-hammersIn post 378, Wisdom wrote:If you are town voting yourself makes zero sense
Especially if you happen to be the 8ball
You just take away the info of the 5th person on your wagon from us
But you're probably just scum so
Demoralized town self-votes.
You're better than this.
I don't really know House's gameplay outside of when he got eaten alive by hyperposting in my game as scum
Mom's hero solve is so far away from my solve that it probably makes her town, but maybe one of my backups if I'm wrong so far
(Obviously I think this is huge now, i originally thought Bingle said that post D2)In post 487, House wrote:
This. Is. Not. A. Real. Thought.In post 405, Bingle wrote:VOTE: ali
I don’t really trust this sudden shift to Wis, makes me worried he’s an 8 ball, tbh.
No scum team picks Wisdom as 8-ball on d1, unless they know he rolled jester or someshit.
Granted yeah House/Ali is defending his own slot, but I still think it's good he saw that. I don't know if I had the big reaction to Bingle's post because House saw it first and i remembered addressing it, or if that post genuinely was so pinging. Either way i see the same thing as houseand you can take that to the bank
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Well now I don't know because as I read I was already sort of thinking "Ali/Taly town, watch out for Wisdom"
And as I read, sure enough, I thought the same things.
To summarize I think Taly/imagine/Ali-House/Mom were all towny to extents
I probably would have thought Hiraki was a bit scummy cause i disagree with a lot of their reads but yeah
And Bingle now I kind of need to hear more from wait you probably already did that then let me look-
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Okay well as I said I thought Mom/Ali at the very least made more senseIn post 547, Bingle wrote:
My point is that there really isn’t mislim bait in this list, so I could easily see scum picking someone who would normally be hard to eliminate as the day 1 8-ball. And the way EOD happened, it looked like could well have been wisdom.In post 538, House wrote:
He's an nk target, not mislim bait.In post 536, Bingle wrote:Hm. Perhaps I’m the only person in the thread not irrationally terrified by Wisdom.
Well, as of the last time we played together, anyway. It's been years.
But even then -- who is the sudden force switching to Wisdom you're referring to?
Imagine who was pushing there all day? Ali who was the main wagon who was obviously gonna vote there? And then like... Taly. Taly is the only person who makes sense for you to be talking about, Taly actively wanted to get not!Ali elimmed
If you DONT think Imagine is scum, then it's by complete luck that scum gets Wisdom as the 8-ball, no? That's why your idea makes no sense to me. And if you do think Imagine is scum, then lol I guess but also that's not a sudden swap, that's all-day tunnel on the 8-ball which is going to be exceptionally obvious if the elim even goes through which like... why would scum!imagine even expect that to go through? And how could scum!imagine predict Wisdom does something they can scumread?
I'm so confused and basically House saying "There's no way that's a real thought process" comes to mind. It just seems like you wanted to vote Ali.-
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I agree 100% it's a completely nonsense move as town and actually hurts us even more than a town self hammer would usually
I do see a theoretical scenario Ali was faking the hammer part, it was in the back of my mind as i read that
Although Ali's initial reaction to like, just one person voting her ("Leave me alone so i can do what i can do") just seemed frustrated and not particularly theatric to me
i've kinda seen it both ways from Ali so I suppose you immediately assuming Ali was doing it for scum reasons seemed sort of hard to believe from me
Also while i was searching thru the iso i saw this
Bingle didn't really try to read Ali and i think the reasoning for his vote was indirect intentionally (about wisdom push being too quick) cause apparently he is good at reading Ali.In post 444, Alisae wrote:Btw y’all know Bingle is scum cuz guy has t even made an attempt to read me and guy knows my scumgame and knows this ain’t it
But apparently I’m scum KEKW-
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I find it more likely scum doesn't think to abandon what they've been doing all day to sheep you, both because of how that can seem suspicious and also.. why?Wisdom wrote:
DisagreeIn post 575, Morning Tweet wrote:265 is the plot twist of the century LMAO WHAT. There's no way imaginality as scum predetermined that move, the positioning on Wisdom was so steadfast, and now they're helping Wisdom's reads. Nuts. Towny, I think. I think it's a misread of Ali though
Scum "de-tunnel" way more easily because they are moved by opportunism
Town with a steadfast scumread is not very likely to reconsider to the point they sheep their scumread
As town I'd more expect a chaotic view of the gamestate that changes easily and has little regard for how it appears to those on the outside
However, if there was a reason for imagine to switch from pushing you to attacking Ali, then I could entertain it. I didn't really see that at the time though, it just seems like something that doesn't come from scum -- seemed like there was no good reason for scum to do it. scum!imagine gets a miselim either way, no?-
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If that's what it was, no reason to add the extra reasoning to it though.In post 600, Wisdom wrote:
It was just hours left, I could definitely see it as town wanting to get a lim like I was askingIn post 584, Morning Tweet wrote:Now, to be completely fair -- I'm not sure if there was scum motivation to vote Ali or not. It seemed like the day was about to end. So maybe someone who is more familiar with D1 times could tell me if it seemed like Ali could die after that Bingle vote, or if it was total vanity by Bingle.
But the "wisdom 8ball" that accompanies it I dont like
Like i could definitely be sympathetic to that interpretation but it kind of just seems like a fake post to me. Combined with how Bingle (apparently, i could be corrected) can read Ali well. It didn't seem like a town settling on a less than optimal target to me-
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Possible isn't the same as likely, though. Imagine's play on you seems less likely made by scum to me. Can it be scum, yes, although I don't see where the extra likelihood comes from.In post 602, Wisdom wrote:
I'm just extra paranoid of manipulationIn post 585, Morning Tweet wrote:Oh I also think Wisdom's reaction to Ali's self vote and stuff is a misread possibly by scum who wants Ali dead
Kind of same with Wisdom's read on imagine, i don't agree at all
Does that make wisdom scum by default, i guess not though
In both cases you see the surface (Ali being frustrated town, Imaginality being tunneling town) but I see possible scum plays
Especially in Ali's case because I know him to do such stuff as scum
Ali's self hammer/vote, yes, that can be manipulative. Ali asking for space is a bit more dubious... I'm not sure I see that play from scum!Ali being more likely. I think it's NAI or maybe towny since i think it comes off poorly and Ali I've seen try a little harder to seem towny as scum. I see Ali act this way as town all the time as well. Where does the possibility become a likelihood for you?-
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I can agree Ali does weird AtE stuff before but i didn't notice a particular trend to alignment with it
I do find that scum!Ali tries harder to seem towny whereas town!Ali seems to just get pissed when things dont go eir way, more or less. May or may not be a good tell but whatever
Imagine spending all their time scumreading you and then seeing something Ali says, agreeing with you and voting there, just seems like a move that has no reason for scum to do. I didn't notice how it was opportunistic. Can it be scum, yeah, but more likely, i don't think so cause i dont see the scum motivation to it-
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ye lets kill bingle woooooooooooooooooooooooooooo wisdom
And maybe, I can understand that reasoning, although as a move it just seems like something scum would be too self-conscious to do and generally still doesnt make a lot of sense to me compared to chaotic town not considering how they appear and going with what they feel-
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apparently ali thought it wasn't as bad if it was a self-hammer? I'm not really sure why though. Apparently an apology was in order for a non self-hammer
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But imagineality was voting Wisdom all day and if their plan was to get 8-Ball wisdom killed why tf did they tunnel the 8-ball all day just to switch to the main wagon. what was even the plan if Wisdom did actually die? how did Imagineality know they'd be able to get a Wisdom push going? That's like literally the most obviously strange D1 in all of existence -- Wisdom gets hypertunneled and is somehow the 8-ball
Alisae, well, obviously Ali was going to vote not emself and nothing about their vote was out of nowhere or related to the 8-ball
The only person that makes sense for your argument is Taly, who was trying to get anyone-but-Ali killed, essentially.
it just seems like a wildly strange read on your part that doesn't seem like a genuine thought. idk. Why would Wisdom be the 8-ball and how could scum have predicted the stars align like that, it just doesnt make sense as a read to me
Also i see that wording wasn't you now oops lol-
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Also i think Taly is town anyway
And also I think Taly's vote wasn't exclusive to Wisdom could be wrong, i think Wisdom was their best pick though. I do see my wording of "anyone but ali" isn't really right, although getting not ali off was important
Also I see imagine didn't even vote Wisdom?? So nvm basically you're just referring to Taly and Ali, no?-
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** getting not ali elimedIn post 619, Morning Tweet wrote:And also I think Taly's vote wasn't exclusive to Wisdom could be wrong, i think Wisdom was their best pick though. I do see my wording of "anyone but ali" isn't really right, although getting not ali off was important
I don't know wtf that wording was-
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I think if Ali was the 8-ball yesterday then hammering that (earlier in the day, not when it was a deadline crunch) would have looked really bad. Better to not associate with the wagon, not really give a read on Ali (Which is the impression I was getting from how Ali described Bingle? Correct if wrong though)In post 651, imaginality wrote:I'll do some rereading of the Bingle case today as I've just skimmed last couple of pages. One question I have for others who know him is, is he someone who'd hold back from hammering Alisae yesterday or Wisdom today? In both cases I think they were X-1 for a while and they can't both be his buddies.
Don't know with regards to Wisdom -- yes he might be Bingle's buddy, also just not sure throwing down a hammer in a nightless setup and trading one-for-one is a good idea rather than trying to turn others' reads around.
Unless, of course, I am incorrect in my assumption that hammering (town) Wisdom today or Ali early yesterday would be perceived as scummy-
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damnn the Wisdom wagon holds all three of my townreads
Also to confirm: was there a moment where Bingle could have hammered Ali yesterday that wouldn't have seen sus AF (In other words, not early on in the day where it impedes discussion). It seems to me like Bingle didn't really have much of a read towards Ali being scum anyway, but still someone mentioned him having to show that restraint
I do not believe Bingle could have killed Wisdom today and had that look natural from what i remember-
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I agree I think Wisdom is a good push, although moreso because I think his responses to imagineality/Alisae were easily scum-motivated and also are different from my own assessments (I think both are town). I think Wisdom is more or less hand-waving you with those defenses too, though, yeah.In post 691, Taly wrote:Maybe I'm not thinking critically about this, but I don't particularly feel the current points againstBingle? Other than the lazy D1 take onAlisaeand otherwise left-field jump intothe worst, that's as far as I'm thinking on his slot being potential scum.
I thinkWisdomis a better push because I feel like his jump toAlisaeD1 was opportunistic. His EoD1 replies felt as though they came from scum trying to sow doubt in arguments that were valid against them 356 and 357 and 398. I don't follow theBinglevote [MTbeing the convincing vote on that wagon] and I don't think the 1v1 withHousehas accomplished anything for either slot IMO.
And it's unusual for replacements to have similar takes on certain aspects of the game asAlisaedid (namely townreading me, thinkingHouseis a likely 8ball,Wisdombeing scum), so I don't feel like this wagon is without solid reason.-
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It more or less feels like Wisdom needs his scumreads to go down in order to win, I'm not sure I buy his arguments to me that I'm thinking too surface level about Ali/imagine's D1 behaviour. Possibilities are different from likelihoods, and generally Occams Razor works. Is it possible Ali was doing a fake hammer play to score points, sure. The frustration post I think is decidedly NAI or slight town (I'm used to Ali!scum being townier than that, you see).
And with regards to imagine I just find it a pretty impressive read progression if faked because on a surface level it seems way too obvious for scum to do.
I'm a little less convinced Bingle/Wisdom exactly is the team. Maybe Wisdom + Mom/worstie more likely. I am starting to think you may be right that it was just a bad take by Bingle, perhaps.-
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LOL to clarify what I mean: it makes the reads seem strained rather than natural -- it feels like he can't change his reads on imagine/Ali, he has consistently kept both on the table and I'm not sure there's been anything that clues me in that he's genuinely trying to read them
Page 11 being a good example of him keeping both imagine/Ali as options open
Scum gets to switch the 8-ball, actually.House wrote:
There is zero incentive for town to force an elimination, was no elimination = no nk.In post 699, Morning Tweet wrote:I'm not sure there was a real reason for Bingle to force a vote on Ali (Save for town voting at deadline to get an elim, perhaps). I still haven't thought of an answer to that
I don't buy that as an excuse at all.
Additionally, if Bingle thought that it would be better than a no-elim, it doesn't exactly matter. I think he's conceivable that he would. It's possible he was just very awkward about it and I'm getting tripped up-
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Like Wisdom has been steadfast in his evaluation of Ali/imagine and whenever evidence to the contrary pops up he says that he "reads the game on a deeper level" than i do but doesn't actually explain why he thinks his interpretation is more likely.
Add on of course that I don't think it's true scum!Ali is more likely to make that play. And I have been liking what I've seen of House. And it's the same for imagine.-
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Bingle was definitely concerned about the 8-ball considering his vote reason, so it is plausible he would prefer an elim to a no-elim. I don't really mind the 8-ball getting swapped either can you can more or less ignore it if you think you're limming scum, but it does shake my confidence in voting Bingle -- I'm just not sure what the scum motivation to vote Ali is that close to deadline, especially when he has no previous scumread/lean on them.-
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In post 544, the worst wrote:I don't think wisdom being the leading wagon is something that's like, particularly easy for scum to foresee.
Which of these players is aware Wisdom is the 8-ball, I wonderIn post 522, Bingle wrote:
Yes. Ali/Wis/Imagine we’re the EOD pushes. Taly brought that up already D2.In post 518, Morning Tweet wrote:Question to any: Is there any plausible reason that Wisdom may be the 8-Ball
Asking this for multiple reasons-
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What makes you think I wanted to know that then?In post 737, Something_Smart wrote:
Why did you vote him while wanting to know this and not knowing it?In post 735, Morning Tweet wrote:Anyone happen to know why Wisdom was so sure worst is town? (or why anyone believes that would help)-
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It's a thought I had just now thinking about Bingle v. worstieIn post 741, Something_Smart wrote:
Well it wouldn't make any sense to want to know itIn post 739, Morning Tweet wrote:What makes you think I wanted to know that then?nowbut not then, when it actually mattered.
Previously I thought Wisdom was scum so I wasn't as interested as to why he townread worst (i figured worst was town)
Now though I know Bingle has been consistently pushing worst and no one else has been interested in that this game-
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It was kinda bad
Bingle goes out of his way to be scummy at EoDs
The only thing is there is no reason to do it. I don't see why he votes Ali end of day 1 as scum or why he would feel the need to make sure 8-ball wisdom dies in such a rushed manner. Wisdom was gonna die anyway. It looks so bad rushing the elim on the 8-ball. Lol-
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