Final Fantasy XIV - A Realm Reborn Mafia (Game Over)

[Mandelbrot]

So it is weird that Titus is trying to mechanically solve around two town docs, right?
~C

I don't really care what Titus is doing to work things out.

She's green, so I'm good.

- House

[Mandelbrot]

Just in case anyone doubted H1 and H2 should be considered near locktown like House.

Idontgetit.

- House

I was hoping they'd have an opportunity to share more details (later than d-freaking-2), but what they did share doesn't really add up as a thing that can actually happen in and of itself.

- House

[Mandelbrot]

VOTE: Join Raid

Dwlee and I can attest House is clear in most common sense rational scenarios.

Head One and Head Two would agree if they were aware it was House but they had no way of knowing.

I'll clarify only on House's request.


I may or may not have useful information to share. That depends on what people say.

So we're saying Romance was blocked last night?

Assuming single ball, I have a soft guilty on Tomorrow Corporation. That only applies if Romance was blocked as I doubt two blockers.

Hey Titus, I'm trying to understand the apparent contradiction in these 2 posts.

If H1/H2 is town to you, why do you assume that what you have is a soft guilty when H1/H2 is trying to explain how they can become confirmed town (through methods I heartily disagree with being possible, but fypov)?

I'm not tracking your logic. Every time I try, it all comes back blank to me.

- House

[mastina]

Final Raid Group

1. Dwlee99
   
2. RealCheeks
   
3. Bell
   
4. Elsa Jay
   
   
5. SirCakez
   
   
6. Sakura Hana
   
7. Romance
   
8. tictac
   
9. Tomorrow Corporation

The raid is a

failure!

Gee I wonder why the raid could have POSSIBLY failed.

VOTE: Elsa Jay
To be clear.

VOTE: Elsa Jay

Also,
VOTE: Join Raid

[mastina]

Btw forgot to mention this but I no longer think STD is scum and buy that this is his towngame.

VOTE: TC

Uhhh...why are you voting the slot that the nightkill-who-was-Janitored was clearing as town? Like...

Head One and Head Two was eliminated Night 2.

TC is town trust me

TC and tictac are both ~almost~ mech conftown FMPOV.

to be clear:
i know stuff
and that stuff strongly implies that both tictac and TC are confirmed town.

As in my-role-can-confirm-multiple-townies once someone does something outside of the game.

My role implies both tictac and Tc are town but not 100%. If something happens to someone outside of the game then these players can be 100% confirmed town.

Are y'all gonna ignore the fact that

Head One Head Two was probably janitored

to prevent TC from being conftown'd from their flip

?!?

Because it should be stupidly simple to...yaknow. Trust the nightkilled janitored player's roleclaim and NOT vote out who they said was conftown and instead vote for the player who has basically hard-scumclaimed (Elsa Jay).

[Mandelbrot]

Final Raid Group

1. Dwlee99
   
2. RealCheeks
   
3. Bell
   
4. Elsa Jay
   
   
5. SirCakez
   
   
6. Sakura Hana
   
7. Romance
   
8. tictac
   
9. Tomorrow Corporation

The raid is a

failure!

Gee I wonder why the raid could have POSSIBLY failed.

VOTE: Elsa Jay
To be clear.

VOTE: Elsa Jay

Also,
VOTE: Join Raid

I find it difficult to believe that I picked up on something that you missed.

This post hurts my head and my heart.

- House

[mastina]

I want either tictac or TC today. I'm not voting anyone else in the raid list.
- House

House to be blunt: you're being mega-dumb.
ASIDE FROM THE FACT THAT THE NIGHTKILLED PLAYER LITERALLY WAS HARD-VOUCHING FOR TC AND TICTAC BEING TOWN, we KNOW that there's a group with AT LEAST ONE GUARANTEED UNFLIPPED SCUM.

Final Raid Group

1. Dwlee99
   
2. RealCheeks
   
3. Bell
   
   
4. Elsa Jay
   
5. Sakura Hana
   
   
6. Romance
   
   
7. tictac
   
   
8. Tomorrow Corporation

The raid is a

failure!

We know that Sakura Hana and Romance are town by role, but even if we didn't, their play by play is town.

We know Bell is town by his play. He's admittedly not cleared by role, but play is strong clear.

That, in of itself, means we have AT LEAST ONE SCUM GUARANTEED in {Dwlee99, RealCheeks, Elsa Jay,

tictac, Tomorrow Corporation}.

And in that group?

The nightkilled player was literally hard-vouching for tictac and TC being town.

And,

The janitor was probably used to prevent tictac and Tomorrow Corporation from being conftown upon the H1H2 flip

.
Meaning that realistically, the elimination pool today should be PRECISELY:

{Dwlee99, RealCheeks, Elsa Jay}, as that pool contains one GUARANTEED scum.

And one of the players in there (hint; it's Elsa) was being a blatant scumfuck yesterday, while the other two both look town enough.

So there's ZERO realm in which today's elimination SHOULD NOT be Elsa Jay.

[Mandelbrot]

I don't buy OGI being used by the mod to conftown players.

It's ridonkulous.

- House

[Mandelbrot]

Meaning that realistically, the elimination pool today should be PRECISELY:

{Dwlee99, RealCheeks, Elsa Jay}, as that pool contains one GUARANTEED scum.

RC is the only one of those 3 I'd vote, but that's not because I particularly scumread them.

I just townread the other 2.

- House

[mastina]

What in the world was that nk about lol.

Hmm, I wonder.

VOTE: TC

VOTE: TC

VOTE: Tomorrow Corporation

My role implies both tictac and Tc are town but not 100%. If something happens to someone outside of the game then these players can be 100% confirmed town.

Head One and Head Two was eliminated Night 2.

Could it perhaps be, ohhhh, I dunno...

...That scum fucking nightkilled and janitored H1H2 to prevent TC from becoming conftown so people would be dumb enough to wagon TC today instead of the actual blatant scum???

[Mandelbrot]

once someone does something outside of the game.

Stopped believing everything right there.

Sorrynotsorry.

- House

[Qrow and Raven]

And one of the players in there (hint; it's Elsa) was being a blatant scumfuck yesterday, while the other two both look town enough.

This is a pratfall in the making. I direct people again to consider that the entire thread atmosphere got way more static charged when Noraa put out her plan. I’m thinking scum exist on that raid that isn’t Elsa, but Elsa is also scum, and the scum agenda was for him to be flipped and for the town at large to tune out the rest of the raid. And when Noraa came in with a raid comp that didn’t include Elsa, scum probably got real hot and bothered about making sure things didn’t happen in a way that would disclose some meant to go deep was possibly scum.

-Qrow

[Mandelbrot]

And one of the players in there (hint; it's Elsa) was being a blatant scumfuck yesterday, while the other two both look town enough.

This is a pratfall in the making. I direct people again to consider that the entire thread atmosphere got way more static charged when Noraa put out her plan. I’m thinking scum exist on that raid that isn’t Elsa, but Elsa is also scum, and the scum agenda was for him to be flipped and for the town at large to tune out the rest of the raid. And when Noraa came in with a raid comp that didn’t include Elsa, scum probably got real hot and bothered about making sure things didn’t happen in a way that would disclose some meant to go deep was possibly scum.

-Qrow

Okay.

Who among the late voters are scum?

- House

[mastina]

I kinda thought cakes was bussing Elsa tbh.

Pretty much yeah.

I kinda thought cakes was bussing Elsa tbh.

Elsa, Q/R, and Wheme all got pushed by Cakez to varying amounts. If any of these three is scum, it would still be foolish of them to lose town cred and cause a raid failure.

Don't give me that "too scum to be scum" shit.

Sometimes, blatant scum will pull the blatant scum move. Because they know they are blatant scum and have nothing to lose by pulling it.

Elsa Jay was already a prime suspect. Why the fuck would Elsa NOT fail the raid as scum?

In contrast, why the fuck would not-Elsa scum fail the raid? If we eliminate Elsa today (which we should) and if Elsa doesn't flip scum, that blows their cover. Is revealing that they're scum really worth a mislim on a player who is likely to eat the elimination even if they let the raid succeed? Fuck no it isn't.

The ONLY player with an incentive to make the raid fail is Elsa Jay.

Today on D3 we were likely going to eliminate Elsa regardless of yesterday's raid succeeding or failing.
If we eliminate Elsa and yesterday's raid succeeded, the names on the raid would be pseudocleared.
If we eliminate Elsa and Elsa flips scum, yesterday's raid failing makes sense.
If we eliminate Elsa and Elsa flips town, then yesterday scum making the raid fail is literally gamethrowing from them because it exposes that there is scum in a group we otherwise would have reason to believe was scum-free. (See above.)

QED, the ONLY explanation for the raid failing is Elsa is scum.

[Qrow and Raven]

Who among the late voters are scum?

I’m thinking it’s Arc or TC. Don’t think it’s both because there felt like there was a disjoint in the votes.

-Qrow

[Titus]

Hey Titus, I'm trying to understand the apparent contradiction in these 2 posts.

If H1/H2 is town to you, why do you assume that what you have is a soft guilty when H1/H2 is trying to explain how they can become confirmed town (through methods I heartily disagree with being possible, but fypov)?

I'm not tracking your logic. Every time I try, it all comes back blank to me.

- House

My soft guilty and my strong belief in H1 and H2 being town are two separate things. You're combining the two.

[mastina]

Elsa Jay was already a prime suspect

(without the raid fail taken into account).

Why the fuck would Elsa NOT fail the raid as scum?

In contrast,

why the fuck would not-Elsa scum fail the raid?

If we eliminate Elsa today (which we should) and

if Elsa doesn't flip scum,

that blows their cover

. Is revealing that they're scum really worth a mislim on a player who is likely to eat the elimination even if they let the raid succeed? Fuck no it isn't.

The ONLY player with an incentive to make the raid fail is Elsa Jay.

Today

on D3 we were likely going to eliminate Elsa regardless of yesterday's raid succeeding or failing.

If we eliminate Elsa and yesterday's raid succeeded,

the names on the raid would be pseudocleared

.
If we eliminate Elsa and Elsa flips scum, yesterday's raid failing makes sense.
If we eliminate Elsa and Elsa flips town, then yesterday scum making the raid fail is literally gamethrowing from them because it exposes that there is scum in a group we otherwise would have reason to believe was scum-free. (See above.)

QED, the ONLY explanation for the raid failing is Elsa is scum.

Gonna quote this again with added clarity/emphasis because I reiterate this.

Scum in the raid who is NOT Elsa Jay is gamethrowing because we were likely going to yeet Elsa Jay anyway. And then what happens when Elsa Jay would flip town? The scum who had minimal-to-zero focus on them prior to the raid failing and an Elsa flip now has a laser focus on them because we know the pool has a scum within.

Scum in the raid who is NOT Elsa Jay had every reason to let the raid succeed--we can yeet Elsa Jay without the raid failing, and then what happens when Elsa Jay would flip town? Nothing, the scum if anything on the raid would be considered town.

But scum being Elsa Jay has the motive to do so because Elsa Jay knows that Elsa's going to, with a high probability, be yeeted. If you're going to be yeeted anyway, you've nothing to lose by making the raid fail.

[Mandelbrot]

@mastina I don't it hard to believe that you can read 2644 and not pick up any useful information.

This push is sus as hell.

- House

[RealCheeks]

Yeah I'm lost again.
~C

[Mandelbrot]

@mastina I find* it hard to believe that you can read 2644 and not pick up any useful information.

This push is sus as hell.

- House

[Titus]

...That scum fucking nightkilled and janitored H1H2 to prevent TC from becoming conftown so people would be dumb enough to wagon TC today instead of the actual blatant scum???

There is a plothole with that theory but from your PoV that makes sense.

I haven't voted TC because I want their explanation.

[Mandelbrot]

Who among the late voters are scum?

I’m thinking it’s Arc or TC. Don’t think it’s both because there felt like there was a disjoint in the votes.

-Qrow

I don't hate the possible AA9 opinion. I've no strong read there, myself.

- House

[Mandelbrot]

...That scum fucking nightkilled and janitored H1H2 to prevent TC from becoming conftown so people would be dumb enough to wagon TC today instead of the actual blatant scum???

There is a plothole with that theory but from your PoV that makes sense.

I haven't voted TC because I want their explanation.

Should we tell mastina a secret?

- House

[RealCheeks]

Maybe we kill two birds with one stone - put everyone in that was in raid yesterday except Elsa, us, bell and fill with whatever townies and also flip TC if he has a less than satisfactory explanation for the trio clear.
~C

[Mandelbrot]

Maybe we kill two birds with one stone - put everyone in that was in raid yesterday except Elsa, us, bell and fill with whatever townies and also flip TC if he has a less than satisfactory explanation for the trio clear.
~C

What's your beef with Bell?

- House