Micro 1029: 8-Ball (but with Wolves) Game Over

[imaginality]

@Morning Tweet:

I need more from imagine though. His progression on Ali/Wisdom felt particularly genuine to me as I've noted but I feel I need a little more to be comfortable, since I think Wisdom is a fine enough 8-ball for them and they can be partnered with mostly whoever.

I do think their strategy of gunning for Wisdom out the gate,

abandoning it (for no reason that I can see)

, 8-balling Wisdom, then

returning

is a little bonkers.

Maybe it's because Ali was the 8-ball D1 and imagine's on a mission to be opportunistic.

But Ali didn't need the help D1. It was just a pointless move..

This seems deliberately obtuse. My reason was explained at the time in #265, and various points thereafter.
What do you mean by 'returning'? Wouldn't that be me voting House today (i.e. returning to the Alisae case)?
Because I haven't done that. I think scum sat back and laughed at a TvTvT on D1. I think House is town.
Actually of the remaining players aside from myself, I think House is the least likely to be scum.

Oh my god

Imagine has quite possibly gunned for all 3 8-balls if my interpretation is correct. Not only that, their pushes are almost exclusive to those 3 (Ali D1, Wisdom D2, Bingle D3)

Granted they tunneled Wisdom early D1 and have spent 100% of their posts sussing Bingle today

but havent committed there yet

It's X-lo if we mis-lim the 8-ball today. And I think because of the hammer, it's pretty likely Bingle is 8-ball, regardless of alignment. So in case I'm wrong in my suspicion, I don't want to slap a vote on just yet.

As for the 8-balls, I kind of doubt your theory just because I think the Alisae wagon was too easy and tempting to push over D1 if she was 8-ball. I don't think scum would have resisted unless both on the wagon. At one point, aside from Wisdom, the wagon was: {the worst, Hiraki(you), me}. Later it was {Hiraki(you), me, Bingle}. So if both scum were on the wagon at both those points, that means you and I are the scumteam and we both know that's not true.

So I don't think Alisae was the D1 8-ball.

Also, if your theory is correct, it's worth noting your slot also gunned for two of those 8-balls (Alisae D1, Wisdom D2). And as for today it's not like I'm trying to sneak an 8-ball on town. I openly admit Bingle is probably 8-ball, I just also think he's probably scum.

And I'm not voting Bingle because I'm trying to follow through my thoughts of 'if scum!Bingle, who's the partner?' and 'if town!Bingle, who's the scumteam?' because if a player is in both of those they might be the better elimination today.

Rereading 265 by imagine I actually don't like it anymore now

it seems sloppy

Shit idk.

It still doesn't seem like it was

necessary

The follow-up seems somewhat believable. I was a bit surprised imagine didn't perceive himself as tunneling, but after rereading, i think i might have misinterpreted the speed of the game or something, it doesn't seem like imagine focused *that* hard on Wisdom. Wisdom finds that bad, thinking imagine was trying to get people to vote him without being sure, I'm less sure of that interpretation.

This is hard, I'm scrutinizing a very small selection which I'm never good at doing

Can you define 'sloppy'?
Necessary from a town!me viewpoint or a scum!me viewpoint?
Re. tunneling: the game was definitely slow D1 and there was a bit of in-jokes and chat. I didn't find much else to dig into which is why I didn't see myself as tunneled on Wisdom. Albeit, I do accept I could have tried to pressure less active posters to post more.

[imaginality]

@the worst:

i'd contest that bingle is like, very clearly driving an agenda-driven lim. i had a busy week and spent my time finding scum, rather than answering questions which didn't interest me much. not sorry.

Can you explain why you think Bingle's push on you is agenda-driven?

just like, going to state the obvious, it's extremely likely both scum are on the main wagon.

Convenient view for you to hold, as you were off the end of day wagon...

Do you think it's also very likely both scum were on the wagon when you were on it?
- If so, that implies you believe House and I are the scum team, is that your view?
- If not, that implies you believe at least one of {Morning Tweet, Bingle} is scum, is that your view?

4 Wisdom (House, Taly, the worst, imaginality)

Imagine was also the cw that never was to Ali D1. I sheeped wis’s case there mostly to see if wis was serious about the read, but it not taking off because scum were pushing us towards Ali makes a certain kind of sense.

given there *was* a late cw

i'm not sure i don't agree that scum didn't need to get involved

to finish off the lim

I'm not sure I don't think I know not what this is trying to say.

Am I right that you mean the late counter-wagon on me meant scum needed to add pressure to the Alisae wagon to try to get that one across the line? (If so that would point to Bingle-scum as he was the late joiner on that wagon.)

i might need to rethink imaginality. don't really think ali was like, playing eir scumgame in a vacuum, but i'm surprised their lim didn't go thru d1. that's something i want to check out,.

Quoting this to remind myself of it later.

[imaginality]

@Bingle:

I thought wis was more likely town than scum, but not strongly.

I had decided he wasn’t likely an 8-ball with the vehemence literally everyone was saying he wasn’t 8-ball with

, but I didn’t see the thread mood changing to a place where anyone would engage about duck without a flip.

Why would that convince you? I mean, scum would lie to you. You don't seem like someone who gets swayed by other people's views compared to your own.

Didn't you yourself in your past game of this (the one someone linked to when they said you're against no-lims) argue town should vote without caring whether someone might be 8-ball or not? Have your views changed since then?

i'd contest that bingle is like, very clearly driving an agenda-driven lim. i had a busy week and spent my time finding scum, rather than answering questions which didn't interest me much. not sorry.

Dafuq is this sequence?

Mt: duck avoided Bingle to fluff.
Bingle: duck avoided Taly too, so it wasn’t about his scumread on me.
Duck: I avoided Bingle because he’s scum!
Also duck: I avoided Bingle because I’d caught scum!

What even is this bullshit?

Do you believe what you're saying here (there's at least one obvious reasonable interpretation of the worst's comment), or are you just looking for excuses to attack the worst?

[imaginality]

@Something_Smart:

I'd like to not share my reads this game if possible. Sadly I replaced into a low-content slot so it may not be. But then again people usually don't read me off of my reads so maybe it wouldn't help to share them.

When you replaced in to the other game I played with you (Owner's Market Blitz) you didn't have any reticence about sharing your reads. for example Why the different approach to this game?

So in a way it wraps back around to seeming uninformed because if i were informed Wisdom were the 8-ball I damn sure wouldn't ask Wisdom a question then just go fuck it and kill him

Bingle seems like the type to make that kind of calculated decision as scum.

I agree with this. In fact I think any of the players in this game are quite capable of making unexpected plays.

If Bingle is scum and is 8-ball today then hammering was either a way for scum to eliminate two town, or a way for scum to eliminate three town for one scum. If he gave himself 50-50 odds of not getting eliminated today then I'm pretty sure that's a positive play for scum?

Of course, similar thoughts apply to others on the wagon, but my point here is that it is far from a 'too obvious to be smart' play for scum.

[Something_Smart]

Why the different approach to this game?

...Because scum get massively rewarded for guessing people's reads?

[Morning Tweet]

Necessary from a scum viewpoint, imagine. Even if Ali is 8 ball, I dont think a forced switch is necessary, especially to the vote of your current suspicion

[Morning Tweet]

Sloppy more or less as the reasoning didnt seem very good to me, or Wisdom or Ali for that matter. But your follow up posts did explain it better.

[House]

I'm not pushing today's wagon.

If another 8 ball flips, y'all will come screaming for my head if I'm the one leading the charge.

Kinda put off by leading a miselim on Wisdom. Hope he's not too angry with me.

[Morning Tweet]

We lose if town 8 ball flips house

[House]

We lose if town 8 ball flips house

All the more reason for me not to be the one leading it.

[House]

Why are we not looking for scum on the wagon, btw?

I was expecting more scrutiny.

[Something_Smart]

All the more reason for me not to be the one leading it.

If a town 8-ball flips it doesn't matter who led it...

[House]

All the more reason for me not to be the one leading it.

If a town 8-ball flips it doesn't matter who led it...

But the odds of 8-ball increase drastically if town follows my dumb ass.

[Something_Smart]

Why's that? You think scum were picking to predict you specifically?

[House]

Why's that? You think scum were picking to predict you specifically?

I mean, I'd be a logical 8-ball... but I thought the same yesterday.

[Bingle]

We lose if town 8 ball flips house

I understand this, but it made me giggle. Like we’re all going to vote 8ball and just see who flips.

I’m gonna be busy for a bit, but I’ll be around later. If anyone has questions they need answered, post em now.

[Morning Tweet]

Why's that? You think scum were picking to predict you specifically?

I mean, I'd be a logical 8-ball... but I thought the same yesterday. :?

If you're a logical 8-ball that means there's no way you could push the 8-ball..?

[House]

Why's that? You think scum were picking to predict you specifically?

I mean, I'd be a logical 8-ball... but I thought the same yesterday.

If you're a logical 8-ball that means there's no way you could push the 8-ball..?

But that's exactly what happened.

[Morning Tweet]

Oh, I get you.

You should still tell me what you're thinking with regards to scum

[House]

Oh, I get you.

You should still tell me what you're thinking with regards to scum

I honestly have no clue.

I was invested in a scum!Wisdom world.

I'm still baffled that he actually bothers to explain his reads, now. That was part of his charm.

[Morning Tweet]

This seems deliberately obtuse. My reason was explained at the time in #265, and various points thereafter.
What do you mean by 'returning'? Wouldn't that be me voting House today (i.e. returning to the Alisae case)?
Because I haven't done that. I think scum sat back and laughed at a TvTvT on D1. I think House is town.
Actually of the remaining players aside from myself, I think House is the least likely to be scum.

No, I meant returning to suspecting Wisdom on the next day.

I too think House is town.

It's X-lo if we mis-lim the 8-ball today. And I think because of the hammer, it's pretty likely Bingle is 8-ball, regardless of alignment. So in case I'm wrong in my suspicion, I don't want to slap a vote on just yet.

As for the 8-balls, I kind of doubt your theory just because I think the Alisae wagon was too easy and tempting to push over D1 if she was 8-ball. I don't think scum would have resisted unless both on the wagon. At one point, aside from Wisdom, the wagon was: {the worst, Hiraki(you), me}. Later it was {Hiraki(you), me, Bingle}. So if both scum were on the wagon at both those points, that means you and I are the scumteam and we both know that's not true.

So I don't think Alisae was the D1 8-ball.

Also, if your theory is correct, it's worth noting your slot also gunned for two of those 8-balls (Alisae D1, Wisdom D2). And as for today it's not like I'm trying to sneak an 8-ball on town. I openly admit Bingle is probably 8-ball, I just also think he's probably scum.

And I'm not voting Bingle because I'm trying to follow through my thoughts of 'if scum!Bingle, who's the partner?' and 'if town!Bingle, who's the scumteam?' because if a player is in both of those they might be the better elimination today.

Ah, so you aren't planning on pushing Bingle today, nevermind, I interpreted your posts that way. I agree Bingle is a highly likely 8-ball.

I still feel like Ali and Mom/SS were the best 8-balls D1. I never said both scum had to be on-wagon EoD of course. But yeah, it is speculative. And you would think scum would push the wagon 100%, through in theory.

Yeah I misunderstood you on Bingle for sure. And you make a fair point that most players really did gun Ali + Wisdom. So without that Bingle component, I'm not pinged.

[Morning Tweet]

@the worst:

i'd contest that bingle is like, very clearly driving an agenda-driven lim. i had a busy week and spent my time finding scum, rather than answering questions which didn't interest me much. not sorry.

Can you explain why you think Bingle's push on you is agenda-driven?

I wouldn't hold your breath, duck hasn't explained his read on Bingle all game

I vehehemently disagree both scum had to be on Wisdom wagon. That ignores worstie, who was on the wagon but later switched, as well as Mom, who didn't play at all.

You might say "its too lucky for scum to get that wagon with 0-1 people on it EoD" -- I disagree, Taly and imagine were bound to push the wagon, House/Ali was also bound to push it. 2-3 of those are town, pretty sure. As long as House wasn't elimed, Wisdom was actually pretty likely. I feel stupid for not seeing that

[Morning Tweet]

Why the different approach to this game?

...Because scum get massively rewarded for guessing people's reads?

It's Xylo anyway, no?

[Morning Tweet]

Any townreads, House? I'm literally going to locktown you if you make a vaguely towny-sounding comment cause I'm already pretty convinced -- and I also wouldn't mind hearing your input

[House]

I feel kinda mean for saying this, but I could see a world where Taly is scum.

Directing the lim away from me allowed 8-ball to be flipped.

If it had been Titus or someone else I had a lot of games in with, I wouldn't think much of it, but I don't think we've played enough to townread me so hard so early.