Final Fantasy XIV - A Realm Reborn Mafia (Game Over)

[Mandelbrot]

As for CT, it is amazing, but shockingly during that same era, my non-FF Square fix was Secret of Mana. I didn't really grow to respect CT til much later in life.

I don't think I've ever even played Secret if Mana.

I was too engrossed in FF & CT.

- House

[RealCheeks]

I'm voting wheme and AA9 has a few votes, think mod is sleeping so no VC yet.
~C

[Mandelbrot]

I'm voting wheme and AA9 has a few votes, think mod is sleeping so no VC yet.
~C

Weird that you won't vote the guy you've been constantly shading.

It's almost like you don't even believe your own stated opinion.

- House

[Toogeloo]

VOTE: ArcAngel

[RealCheeks]

I'm voting wheme and AA9 has a few votes, think mod is sleeping so no VC yet.
~C

Weird that you won't vote the guy you've been constantly shading.

It's almost like you don't even believe your own stated opinion.

- House

Shading sorting sorta similar so?
~C

[Mandelbrot]

I'm voting wheme and AA9 has a few votes, think mod is sleeping so no VC yet.
~C

Weird that you won't vote the guy you've been constantly shading.

It's almost like you don't even believe your own stated opinion.

- House

Shading sorting sorta similar so?
~C

Nope.

Votes are infinitely more useful to sort than impotent shading.

Try another excuse for being a coward. That one fails.

- House

[Mandelbrot]

You're not likely to convince anyone how "right" you are when you won't even support your own suspicions with a vote.

But you don't want to be under the spotlight, do you?

Too bad.

- House

[RealCheeks]

Good night house xx
~C

[mastina]

Mastina needs to verify that she even has the charges to solo a raid, and then has to verify with the mod she even can. Either of those is a no, we need to put town reads on the raid.

It works, but I don't want to out if I have charges today. I'll claim the number tomorrow.

If Mastina is claiming survivor, House can shut it.

It's explicitly impossible for me to be scum because, explicitly, my role can ONLY work if I am town. It literally cannot exist as either a scum role OR a neutral role.

This was the first raid, im 90% sure the scum strongman was in it. If we eliminate EJ who is known to not be, and mastina who is also obviously not the strongman now we get

Mandelbrot
Mystic Bears
RealCheeks

Toogeloo

Bell

Btw while I think your logic is sound, my list isn't quite the same as yours.
Bell is a hard-remove, and Toogeloo a soft-remove.

I'm not sure Mandelbrot is worthy of removal tho.

So if your theory has merit, it'd be:
{Mandelbrot, Mystic Bears, RealCheeks} to me as the pool for the strongman.

However, I'd prefer we hunt for the RB over the strongman. We can keep the strongman from having more shots by ensuring these three slots are not on the raid.

So, instead, we should focus on eliminating the scum roleblocker.

Given the three names probably do not contain the scum roleblocker, we're left with a pool for the scum roleblocker of:
{ArcAngel9,

Qrow and Raven

, Whemestar, Save The Dragons, Dwlee99, tictac, Tomorrow Corporation}.
It cannot be Tomorrow Corporation due to Titus tracking TC nowhere on a night we know the roleblocker acted.
If we throw in my townread, that leaves an effective roleblocker pool of:

{ArcAngel9, Whemestar, Save The Dragons, Dwlee99, tictac}.

Final Raid Group

1. Dwlee99
   
2. RealCheeks
   
3. Bell
   
4. Elsa Jay
   
5. SirCakez
   
   
6. Sakura Hana
   
7. Romance
   
8. tictac
   
9. Tomorrow Corporation

Speculating further, there is a high chance the scum roleblocker was not in this raid, because if the scum roleblocker

were

in the raid, there'd be no need for Elsa Jay to fail the raid. There can still be scum in the D2 raid, it just isn't the roleblocker. Since tictac and Dwlee were both in that raid, that leaves the roleblocker pool as precisely:
{ArcAngel9, Whemestar, Save The Dragons}.

In other words:

We have a 1/3 chance of eliminating the scum roleblocker by voting one of AA9, WhemeStar, or STD

.

I don't think STD is scum here and actually buy STD as town here.

So I genuinely think:

We effectively have a 50% chance of eliminating the roleblocker by eliminating one of ArcAngel9 or WhemeStar today.

Is my logic wrong, Sakura? Because if it's not, you should back me on eliminating AA9 or if not AA9, WhemeStar.

[Mandelbrot]

I'm not sure Mandelbrot is worthy of removal tho.

That's okay, I disagree.

Even the players that "scumread" us won't vote us.

- House

[mastina]

So if your theory has merit, it'd be:
{Mandelbrot, Mystic Bears, RealCheeks} to me as the pool for the strongman.

(Btw I genuinely don't know who the strongman would be. I can't tell. If it were just House I'd say it was Mandelbrot for sure of the three but Yume looks absurdly town. But I've liked both heads of Mystic Bears here. And RealCheeks doesn't really seem like scum. But I genuinely think that the strongman-is-on-the-D1-raid theory has merit and that it could only be one of the three meaning one of the hydras which looks town, isn't actually town.

I'm hoping, however, that we just win the game by eliminating the scum roleblocker and that we can find the scum strongman via an unroleblocked cop that scum can no longer kill. Which is why I think we should focus on eliminating the scum roleblocker. Which is why I think that we should eliminate one of {AA9, WhemeStar} today and if they don't flip scum roleblocker, flip the other on D5.)

[Toogeloo]

Mastina basically spewed my thoughts as well.

[mastina]

Mastina can't be alive at YOLO if she's 3P, simple as that.

Fortunately, I am not 3p and cannot be 3p and can in fact ONLY be town because my role literally cannot be anything but town, but even if it weren't, scum would kill me well before 3p anyway. They'd have no choice.

Flavor outed her. Already explained.

You mean the flavor that Toogeloo said this to?

Meh... Not really. I mean, yeah, if the player doesn't want to play through the story. I think the nagging at the back of brain is would the WoL actually be in this game? FFXIV does have a generic WoL that is used in cinematics for the title screen and launch promos, and to be fair, the WoL is the primary driving force of the story since it's, well, the player. technically plausible since if there is any one character in the game that would actually succeed in raiding, it would be the player lol.

Honestly, I'm willing to just leave that all alone for now. I'm more than happy to Elim some easy PoEs today in either Wheme, ArcAngel, Mystic Bears, those kind of slots.

Mastina being 3P is tinfoil, even more so than Mafia aligned mastina. We aren't liming her unless we have exhausted Mafia scum options. Don't go diving down the rabbit hole yet people. We have plenty of scummy people out there to elim still.

Toogeloo, the person who is the most flavor-knowledgeable in the game?

Flavor didn't out me as 3p. Flavor outed me as

conftown

that is

one of the strongest town PRs in the game

. (Not the strongest, but among them.)

[RealCheeks]

Ehhhh maybe it is Mystic Bears and I'm eating the AtE again. There are strong links between MB and Wheme similar to MB hard defending Elsa. Maybe they're trying to townread their scum mates so hard that they become a townread themselves because wifom.
~C

[RealCheeks]

I think that could be why MB is desperate to be on the raid and stalling out the day to figure out how to get back on?
~C

[ArcAngel9]

I am not scum. I don't mind getting eliminated if the game can move forward, so at least scum cant freeload on me tomorrow.

You should eliminate Dwlee, Mystic Bears, Tomorrow, Romance

[RealCheeks]

Why Romance?
~C

[ArcAngel9]

Mastina you have lost your scum reading charm btw..

You have never been anology person but more of a gut/feeling person. A huge change in your game claim.

[ArcAngel9]

Scum is in these two blocks!!

Not sure
, Bell, Q&R , RealCheeks

Scum
Mystic Bears, Tomorrow Corporation, Dwlee99, Romance

[RealCheeks]

Wheme/MB/Dwlee
~C

[mastina]

Also also, if she WAS NOT 3p, she wouldn't have gotten so bent over me mentioning it, saying that it's something "I had no business bringing up".

I would be hounding you regardless of who you accused of being 3p. It's not that you accused me of being 3p. It's that you brought up 3p in the first place. And to reiterate the point that you've

continued

to deflect:

I just genuinely think House's insistence on

hunting for 3p

is scummy as fuck because why the fuck would town hunt for 3p?

I am, explicitly, not groupscum--even if House

were

right about me being 3p (which he isn't, since my power is explicitly tied to me being town and fundamentally cannot come from a 3p which y'all would know if I fullclaimed which is, again, one of the reasons I don't want to), focusing on 3p is, and I want to reiterate this because House keeps deflecting: not hunting for groupscum. Yaknow: the thing

guaranteed

to exist and still be in the game?

Focusing on hunting (nonexistent, non-proven) 3p instead of focusing on hunting (proven to exist, certain to have 2-3 more members) groupscum.

I don't give a fuck about your loaded question.

What makes it loaded and not valid?

3p hunting is NOT scumhunting because scum are, explicitly, the scum faction.

So I repeat.

Which faction has more incentive to hunt for 3p?

Why are you focusing on hunting 3p instead of focusing on scum?

You backed off after a while, sure!

But why did you go there in the first place?

Why the FUCK did you decide to look for 3p instead of looking for scum when you know that, by the evidence, I am not scum?

You brought something up that you had no reason to bring up in the first place.

And you're

still

deflecting from my point:

But this is still a deflection from my point:

If mastina turns out to not be town, I'm thinking she's more likely to be solo scum than group scum.

I'm not advocating for her elimination based on unfounded suspicion. Just a possibility to keep in mind.

So...you want to...serial killer hunt now?

Hmm.

Wonder which faction benefits from hunting 3ps?

Wasn't it YOU, House, who said as much? (Could be mistaken but I seem to distinctly recall in a prior game you being very explicit that 3p hunting is a scumtell.)

Which faction has more incentive to hunt for 3ps?

Is it the town, when we know for a fact that there's still scum left in the game? At least two, and almost assuredly three?

I think not.

You've kept going, "3ps need to die".
You've kept going, "mastina is totally a 3p".
You've kept going, "but I'm not focusing on mastina at all right now and am willing to let it rest".

But none of that addresses my original point.

It is a KNOWN fact that there are at least two scum in the game (strongman, roleblocker) with a high probability of 3 total left.
It is NOT a known fact that there is 3p in the game as there is precisely one player who is saying there is a 3p in the game. That player's logic and reasoning for which, being a stretch that our flavor expert disagrees with them on. That player using moonlogic to justify a conclusion to cast shade on me.

So.

Which alignment has an incentive to hunt for the known threat of scum?
Which alignment has an incentive to hunt for nonproven nonscum-that-are-nontown?

[mastina]

You seem to have more motive for wanting her dead tho. Why is that?

Because having me as conftown makes the game harder for the scum so any way to make me not be conftown is a way to make the game easier for scum.

Literally has scum powers. Not a member of any town alliance/group. She's 3p through and through.

Uhh, you're wrong about mastina having scum powers. She can only fail a raid if she's part of the hostile faction. In which case she's not survivor, just scum.

This is not even a productive discussion.

Pointing out your consistent attempts to shade my townness and focus on 3p and how your viewpoint has logical flaws in it and your stance is contested by a flavor expert and so on and so forth is in fact a productive discussion.

It shows that your position comes from a point of malevolence in that it is a position you would have no reason to hold as town but have every reason to hold as scum.

First you tried selling me as being scum.
When that didn't work out you shifted to trying to sell me as 3p.
When even that didn't work out, you tried to distance from the whole thing by saying you aren't interested in pushing me anymore...
...But saying you're not interested in pushing me anymore doesn't change that you DID push me, both initially as scum and then when that didn't work out, as 3p. With a focus on 3p that town has no reason to have, but scum do.

Also if House was scum, then scum probably would've crafted better fake claims.

I mean, you'd

think

that, but...I have some personal experience for how that can fail to materialize.
(For those not in the know: I was THE player in that game with the most flavor knowledge of Chrono Trigger. What Toogeloo is to this game, I am to Chrono Trigger. I literally have near-encyclopedic knowledge of the game. I looked up facts about the game from multiple wikis, from official Chrono Trigger wikis to TVTropes. I literally have

streamed

me playing the entirety of the game, basically twice! And played it in recent times, thrice. With a total number of playthroughs numbering in the dozens, not counting having watched a few before.
Didn't stop me from being unable to stop atrocious fakeclaims from my scumbuddies.)

I realize that Mandelbrot isn't lockscum here. They have genuine reasons to be town. Yume looks town and I admit that House being knowledgeable about flavor reduces the odds of scum botching flavor-to-role-fakeclaims.

But they are in a very narrow pool of who could be the scum strongman, and both the other hydras have reasons to be town, and House's trajectory on me has been one that has a very VERY clear/obvious scum motive but lacks entirely anything resembling a town motive. Which is why, if you DID need to push come to shove force me to guess which of the 3 is scum I'd go Mandelbrots > Real Cheeks > Mystic Bears most to least.

[mastina]

OTH if AA9 is a scum roleblocker why isnt there more resistance? or is AA9 just indefensible?

I mean.

We have a good PoE for who the roleblocker is.

Who can defend AA9 without risking their towncred?

How can they justify defending AA9?

Obviously, the scum want the scum RB to live as long as possible.

But how do they do that without making themselves look like scum?

They can't defend the scum roleblocker if our PoE on who could be the roleblocker is correct.

So the only way they can defend the scum roleblocker is by trying to attempt to push us to eliminate someone outside the roleblocker PoE. Direct defense of the scum roleblocker if our PoE of the scum roleblocker is impossible.

(initially had this as a part of a separate post but said separate post is long and important enough that I want to post it solo, separate to this)

[mastina]

I have not bullied mastina one bit. Nor have I belittled her.

Calling it bullying/belittling may not be accurate words to describe it...but you

have

SHADED me, and you

have

PUSHED me:

Elsa is being so egregious today like “we got TC we got this!” and was like oh silly Mastina pushing me :/ and then Wheme jumped on like Yeah Mastina Claim Your Role!
And no one finds this weird?

Not really. Want me to tell you why? I've noticed... mastina thus far has claimed absolutely nothing that does not come inherent with the power of a red role pm.

You mean, after mastina does that thing scum can do?
Is this before or after she gets in the raid and does, y'know, that thing scum can do?

I'm trying to figure out why mastina is essentially claiming Mafia Janitor.

I don't get why people are buying mastina's claim wholesale.

Everything adds up just fine if she's scum.

Adding to her claim diminishes her read for me, but out the gate Day 1, Post 1 claim was a strong town tell. That being said, it's easy for a scum player to openly claim, "I can guarantee a raid's success," hence the reason her addendum to her role claim has me now raising my eyebrow.

Right? It's like she's angling to have almost as much sway over the events of the game as the moderator.

Then, you switched from calling me scum to calling me 3p:

If mastina turns out to not be town, I'm thinking she's more likely to be solo scum than group scum.
It would explain the abilities she has, and why she can legitimately hunt scum.
I'm not advocating for her elimination based on unfounded suspicion. Just a possibility to keep in mind.

Funny how every time we want something concrete from mastina, up comes another mysterious aspect to her power role.
Yet, nothing has actually been confirmed.

Being against Elsa doesn't mean you can't be solo scum. Solo scum tends to be pretty powerful to make up for their lack of buddies.
I remember a game with eyestott as a Survivor that town-sided as solo scum.

Right? It's like she's angling to have almost as much sway over the events of the game as the moderator.

Well, from a

certain

point of view...I do.

But obviously I've no reason to explain that.
(It's a technicality, more trivia than anything else.)

This post has solo scum all over it. Town doesn't get that much power over a game.

I'll tell you right now, you're never shaking my 3p read now that you've resorted to this bullshit, because now it's transparent how threatened you are about me bringing it up.

I intimidated you by bringing up 3P, and you couldn't even tell when I let it go. So, now it's back to stay.

Survivor all pissy about being outed.

All the NPC's have their specific agendas. The player character does whatever benefits them. Sounds like 3p to me.

Confession, it is good for the soul. Not so good for the body, though.
VOTE: mastina

Meh... Not really. I mean, yeah, if the player doesn't want to play through the story. I think the nagging at the back of brain is would the WoL actually be in this game? FFXIV does have a generic WoL that is used in cinematics for the title screen and launch promos, and to be fair, the WoL is the primary driving force of the story since it's, well, the player. Not either of the names I would have guessed mastina to pick, and she hasn't confirmed it either, but technically plausible since if there is any one character in the game that would actually succeed in raiding, it would be the player lol.

You're not following. All the NPC's, good and evil, have a set script. Things they HAVE TO DO. The warrior of light is unique in that they don't HAVE to do ANYTHING. The player can just spend their entire lives killing lv1 mobs outside the starting city, if they wish. The player is the quintessential third party in FFXIV lore.

Well glad we got that paranoia out of the way finally.

It just sucks that she's literally confirmed 3p.

Flavor outed her. Already explained. I also don't wait for group scum to give a full confession before I eliminate them.

Did Mastina claim 3rd party legit. Or was that just you being aggro.

Not aggro at all. The logic is sound. All of the NPC's have a set course of action. A script. The warrior of light (player character) does not. They can advance the storyline, or they can spend their whole life farming pelts in a starter zone. The warrior of light is literally the third party in FFXIV lore, just like the player character is the master of their own destiny in every FF game. I leveled Cecil to 50 on imps outside of Baron on one playthrough of FFIV back in the day (labeled as FF II, because original NA release). The warrior of light has no alliances outside of those he/she/etc chooses for themselves. Every NPC has an assigned alliance. Also also, if she WAS NOT 3p, she wouldn't have gotten so bent over me mentioning it, saying that it's something "I had no business bringing up".

@House, you only "outed" her if she is actually 3P.

She is, so.

Pushing someone who is town as 3p is

still

pushing to discredit them. It's a FACT that I am town. (It's currently known only to me and the mods, but it is nonetheless the truth. Nothing you can do or say will change that I am in fact town.) It's a FACT that you're pushing me as 3p, something that I am not. Nothing you can do or say erases the above.

However, something which is

veeeeeery

interesting about your callout of me being 3p:

As far as I'm concerned, hunting out whether a game is multiball is a scum concern. As far as town is concerned, if it's red it's dead.
Multiball just makes it easier for scum to blend in with town by hunting otherscum.
There's no pro-town reason to be speculating about multiball before there is an unexplained nk.
- House

There's plenty of reason for scum to speculate about multiball.

multiball hunting is plenty for me.

Hey House, how can you justify having said

THIS

, when you said all of the above?

(Btw during this iso I realized that House's defense of Elsa Jay is identical to House's defense of his scum partner the last time I saw him as scum, so...)

[mastina]

So on one hand you're saying she's scum because she knows H1/H2 role anyway (via elsa), and can choose to fail or succeed a raid. On the other hand you're saying she's 3p because but then she doesnt know H1/H2 role unless she has an ability to find out, and she cant fail a raid on her own.
So, which one is it?

This, again, would be why I genuinely think that Mandelbrot has a fairly high chance of being the scum strongman.

It's not a surefire thing because there

are

genuine reasons for the hydra to be town--Yume looks town, and scum that have claimed so far have shown poor flavor/role coordination when House is a flavor expert. But while those can make the slot be town, they're not surefire signs that make the slot impossible to be scum and both the other candidates

also

have reasons to be town meaning one of the slots with reasons to be town, isn't town, and House has fairly good reasons to be scum.

Why is this a topic of discussion anyway.

A lot of the discussion we've been having has felt like a way to distract us from eliminating the roleblocker, per my prior answer to your question as to why nobody is defending AA9.

The scum cannot defend AA9.

What the scum

can

do is try and rely on town's goldfish memory by distracting them with distraction after distraction after distraction by making the town go off on tangent after tangent that prevents them from eliminating AA9.