Final Fantasy XIV - A Realm Reborn Mafia (Game Over)

[RealCheeks]

Anyway.
RealC/Bears
the strongman is within those 2 most likely, but doesnt mean the other cant be the roleblocker, i dont see any reason for the roleblocker to be in day 1 raid tho.
That leaves us with:
dwlee, AA9, STD, Wheme, TC, tictac, myself
Are the only ppl still alive that wasnt in the day 1 raid.
I know it's not me, and you shouldnt either unless you have insane paranoia of me.
it's probably not tictac either due to the flavor claim.
It's probably not TC.
and dwlee's in the raid anyway and mandel is defending them like no tomorrow.
So unless the strongman and roleblocker are exactly mandel/dwlee.

RealC/Bears contains the strongman.
AA9/STD/wheme contains the roleblocker.
OR
Mandel is exactly the strongman and Dwlee is exactly the roleblocker.

Q: Why is the roleblocker not in the raid?

A: I think since the raid was already going to auto succeed thanks to mastina, scum would value more having their 1-shots in the raid than the roleblocker, i doubt the roleblocker isnt infinite shots, but if it isnt then Romance suddenly starts looking more sus to me, so im going to assume the roleblocker is infinite shots, and so they wouldnt be on the raid, we already know Elsa had limited shots and was on it, so it's not unusual to assume another limited shot player would be on it. Cakez also was on it at some point but left.

Romance
mastina
Mandelbrot
Mystic Bears

Elsa Jay

RealCheeks
Toogeloo
Bell

Here's the day 1 raid, everyone's free to come to their own conclusions

It cannot be Tomorrow Corporation due to Titus tracking TC nowhere on a night we know the roleblocker acted.

I forgot about this

Speculating further, there is a high chance the scum roleblocker was not in this raid, because if the scum roleblocker were in the raid, there'd be no need for Elsa Jay to fail the raid. There can still be scum in the D2 raid, it just isn't the roleblocker. Since tictac and Dwlee were both in that raid, that leaves the roleblocker pool as precisely:
{ArcAngel9, Whemestar, Save The Dragons}.

This is a good point as well, thanks for this. This helps a lot.

Strongman might be limited shot, but it doesn't necessarily equate to 1-shot, or they could be odd-night even. There is a lot of protection in a doc, commuter and BP raids.

About 2-Shot:

Mechanics Q & A

Q. What constitutes the ability as "1-shot?"

A. Any abilities that says in your Role PM that says "once per game" is considered as an 1-shot ability.

This along with the fact that every flipped X-Shot so far has 1-Shots i doubt it.
Odd-Night would mean there's a problem with the 3rd raid since it lands exactly on their strongman activation, meaning that read was meaningless in terms of reward.
To further indicate that the strongman wouldnt be 2-Shot, with the ability to refill/add shots in this raid, it gives incentive to the scum strongman to be townread enough to not be veto'd out of the raid, much like RC and Bears were.
However I did say it's a 90% chance, the 10% would be that I was randomly roleblocked by scum Night 1 instead of Mirio being strongman shot, I call it 10% because it's not impossible, just improbable.
And speaking of improbable.

Those that townread all 3 of Mandelbrot, Mystic Bears, Realcheeks

(or if you're one of them and townread the other 2), remember this saying:

Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever's left, no matter how improbable, it's the truth.

Here Gamma.
~C

[Mandelbrot]

@mastina & @Toogeloo since this may be our last night using our ability, would you like us to Neighborize you two?

We would have done it before, but I didn't want to trigger paranoia and be forced to out earlier.

- House

[Sakura Hana]

It wont be the last night using your ability if you leave only town (including mastina) in the raid.
Since a success means i cant be roleblocked tonight and strongman cant bypass my heal.

[Sakura Hana]

Alternatively leave the roleblocker PoE out of the raid, i guess.

[mastina]

But if you're curious I healed mastina last night.

Probably a smart target as if we massclaim I'll not be long for the world.

Mastina can you please smack some fools in the head with her overwhelming logic?

Unfortunately, I don't have much to give.

Sakura Hana's logic about the strongman being among {RealCheeks, Mandelbrot, Mystic Bears} holds merit.

Mandelbrot could still be scum, but via their role, can almost assuredly not be the strongman. (As in, if they're scum, they're not the strongman and not the roleblocker, truthfully claiming their role.)

Which makes it a decent 1v1 between you and Mystic Bears for who is more town.

I WILL however say that hunting the presumably-unlimited roleblocker is better than hunting the used-shots strongman tho because the strongman has used their role and has nothing left to give the scum beyond being a scum body, whereas the scum roleblocker gives value to the scumteam every night they exist.

And if we don't continue to hunt for the roleblocker, then eliminating AA9 wrongly was all for naught. The entire point of that elimination was roleblocker-hunting within the limited POE. Switching to strongman hunting is the worst thing we could do.

[Qrow and Raven]

At this point i dont care much about the roleblocker and im resigned to the fact that maybe i should just play like a VT until we hit the roleblocker.

Well if you want to hit the roleblocker you shouldn't be voting RealCheeks as they cannot be the roleblocker.

Strongman? Sure, but as you said, roleblocker's bigger threat.

If you’ve been paying attention the raids are repeating themselves in the exact same order, right? D1: X shot. D2: strongwilled D3: bp, D4: X shot. D5: strongwilled, so D6 will most likely be bp again, which means we absolutely should kill strongman because strongman is a bigger threat tomorrow. We don’t want a replay of what happened with Titus.

~R

[mastina]

Btw if we do massclaim today and turns out there's a role that actually would be in risk of being roleblocked over me, i'd happily go back to hunting for the roleblocker.

*raises hand*
I miiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight have been bullshitting about being RB-immune.
The rest of my claim, oh, absolutely not a lie, very much the truth through and through.
But being immune to being roleblocked?

No, that was a bluff to make sure the scum didn't.

[Sakura Hana]

At this point i dont care much about the roleblocker and im resigned to the fact that maybe i should just play like a VT until we hit the roleblocker.

Well if you want to hit the roleblocker you shouldn't be voting RealCheeks as they cannot be the roleblocker.

Strongman? Sure, but as you said, roleblocker's bigger threat.

If you’ve been paying attention the raids are repeating themselves in the exact same order, right? D1: X shot. D2: strongwilled D3: bp, D4: X shot. D5: strongwilled, so D6 will most likely be bp again, which means we absolutely should kill strongman because strongman is a bigger threat tomorrow. We don’t want a replay of what happened with Titus.

~R

Strongman isnt a threat if they are out of shots, which they certainly are because i doubt GIF decided to give one person randomly 2 shot instead of 1 shot.
The roleblocker doesnt necessarily need to be a priority today if we can keep all the sus people outside of the raid.
Gonna ISO mastina to confirm or she could answer it herself, but iirc she said she can auto succeed an incomplete raid? Which makes this process easier.

[mastina]

Well I guess this is just wrong but I always thought Massy was crumbing PGO really hard so I tried to not throw any more SRs on her that way town investigatives wouldn't go to her. Anyways I guess that wasn't what was going on. Ok then.

Wait that actually might mean Mystic Bears is the scum strongman here...

[RealCheeks]

So the other possibility exists that the strongman exists outside the PoE.
~C

No because Mirio died while I was healing him.
So strongman has shot twice within the time they could only have gained a single +1 from the first raid.
If you think strongman has more than 1 shot then:

Of course, unless you're suggesting that scum has a 2 (or more shot) strongman on top of 1/3 of the raids giving +1 shots and another 1/3 of the raids giving strongman without having to use their shots is nice game balance.

If you think I got roleblocked then:

Over the other ppl on the day 1 raid?
After I said that the day 1 raid wasnt useful to me?

The last reason, if scum have a combination of 1-shot and unlimited roles like RB the from a balance perspective town is bound to have those roles too, so it could be seen that you were a PR that didn't require refills because VTs dont say anything do they?

You could be right, it could just be MB but they're basically signing their death warrant being uncooperative with town. Which I don't think scum do? Unless they need to survive to a certain point for some reason?
~C

[Sakura Hana]

You could be right, it could just be MB but they're basically signing their death warrant being uncooperative with town. Which I don't think scum do? Unless they need to survive to a certain point for some reason?

Didn't Elsa do this too tho

[Sakura Hana]

The last reason, if scum have a combination of 1-shot and unlimited roles like RB the from a balance perspective town is bound to have those roles too, so it could be seen that you were a PR that didn't require refills because VTs dont say anything do they?

Yes, but they have no way of knowing if im a town role with unlimited shots or a VT. Over... the people in the raid who presumably wanted the reward.

[Mandelbrot]

You could be right, it could just be MB but they're basically signing their death warrant being uncooperative with town. Which I don't think scum do? Unless they need to survive to a certain point for some reason?

Didn't Elsa do this too tho

Yip, and MB hard defended it.

- House

[RealCheeks]

Yes I guess Elsa did but they're in a league of their own.
~C

[Sakura Hana]

Havent they defended every elimination tho

[Sakura Hana]

Yes I guess Elsa did but they're in a league of their own.
~C

Well since you're so sure MB is town then i guess you're the strongman, sorry not sorry.

[Mystic Bears]

To be honest, with the Romance flip, Sakura's theory is a bit more possible.
House could be strongman if the pt ability was his buddy's. If it's actually his own (like proven and mod confirmed), then the chances are lower.
My issue with cheeky is just how she throws me around her reads list. Like she'll be like MB is town. No MB is scum. It's towny until you do it to much.
This doesn't mean I agree with the theory but I dont exactly like Mandelbrot especially. And Cheeky is debatable I guess. For Cheeky i think the main case at this point would probably just be that they were pushed like three days in a row but it never went through. Everything else isn't as strong since flipflipping sometimes depends on meta.

Also if i were scum, Sakura would've died last night. I dont think Sakura is deep wolf but if she is, we're screwed anyways so it doesn't matter i guess.
The only case I could ever be scum here would literally be if like Roleblocker was 1 shot and out of shots but otherwise I dont think i ever shoot Romance over Sakura.

[Mandelbrot]

Havent they defended every elimination tho

Naysayer Scum?

- House

[Mandelbrot]

If it's actually his own (like proven and mod confirmed), then the chances are lower.

If it was my buddy's, I wouldn't have access to read the hoods.

- House

[RealCheeks]

Don't get me wrong I'm not saying don't do the PoEs. Definitely follow through with both just be prepared for the unexpected.
~C

[Qrow and Raven]

Strongman might be limited shot, but it doesn't necessarily equate to 1-shot, or they could be odd-night even. There is a lot of protection in a doc, commuter and BP raids.

About 2-Shot:

Mechanics Q & A

Q. What constitutes the ability as "1-shot?"

A. Any abilities that says in your Role PM that says "once per game" is considered as an 1-shot ability.

This along with the fact that every flipped X-Shot so far has 1-Shots i doubt it.
Odd-Night would mean there's a problem with the 3rd raid since it lands exactly on their strongman activation, meaning that read was meaningless in terms of reward.
To further indicate that the strongman wouldnt be 2-Shot, with the ability to refill/add shots in this raid, it gives incentive to the scum strongman to be townread enough to not be veto'd out of the raid, much like RC and Bears were.
However I did say it's a 90% chance, the 10% would be that I was randomly roleblocked by scum Night 1 instead of Mirio being strongman shot, I call it 10% because it's not impossible, just improbable.
And speaking of improbable.

Those that townread all 3 of Mandelbrot, Mystic Bears, Realcheeks

(or if you're one of them and townread the other 2), remember this saying:

Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever's left, no matter how improbable, it's the truth.

Yeah, it’s as I remember, there was thinking that strongman was 1-shot, 2-shot after having been on the D1 raid. But if scum were out of strongman shots, why’s Romance dead? It doesn’t matter what action Sakura

actually took

. Scum had no reason to think she’d protect elsewhere. So I’m wagering scum strongman shot Romance. But now we have a new problem: we know they strongman shot Titus, so that’s one shot expended. We’re assuming Mirio was a strongman shot because scum guessing Sakura was someone to block was deemed less likely or something. That’s another shot gone. How’d they get the third shot off when the only person in the existing pool is Mandelbrot and he’s proven to be something else? Don’t believe me? Look at these.

Momrangal, Cid (

Eorzean Inventor

), was eliminated Day 1.

Spoiler: Role PM

Cid

Welcome to FFXIV ARR Mafia

You are

Cid (

Eorzean Inventor

)

Ability:

• Garlond Ironwork:
  During the night you may craft a player a device that makes their action treated as strongwilled during the next night phase.
  
• Enterprise:
  During the night you may lend a player your airship Enterprise, giving them ability to commute during the next night phase.

Win Condition:

• All hostile factions are eliminated

Final Raid Group

1. Momrangal
   
   
2. Romance
   
3. mastina
   
4. Mandelbrot
   
5. Mystic Bears
   
6. Elsa Jay
   
7. RealCheeks
   
8. Toogeloo
   
9. Bell

The raid is a

success!

Night 1 begins

Deadline: (expired on 2021-09-26 20:27:34)

ArcAngel9, Papalymo (

Vanilla Eorzean

), was eliminated Day 4.

Spoiler: Role PM

Papalymo

Welcome to FFXIV ARR Mafia

You are

Papalymo (

Vanilla Eorzean

)

Ability:

• None.

Win Condition:

• All hostile factions are eliminated

Final Raid Group

1. Romance
   
2. Dwlee99
   
3. Tomorrow Corporation
   
4. mastina
   
5. Qrow and Raven
   
6. Mandelbrot
   
7. Sakura Hana
   
8. Toogeloo

The raid is a

success!

Night 4 begins

Deadline: (expired on 2021-10-10 19:45:49)

Some names other than Mandelbrot’s line up, but they’re all most likely town. Romance is flipped, Toog has been on the flavor game, and mastina has flavor that’s town-favoring 3p

at worst

.

So my question is thus: which part of this do y’all have a problem with? I don’t think I’m wrong to conclude the Romance kill was strongman-ized. Beyond that, everything I’ve put down had been the work of others. Am I saying the pool can’t be right? No. But I’m saying

you’re not updating your preconceived notions with new information

.

-Qrow

[Mystic Bears]

Well I guess this is just wrong but I always thought Massy was crumbing PGO really hard so I tried to not throw any more SRs on her that way town investigatives wouldn't go to her. Anyways I guess that wasn't what was going on. Ok then.

Wait that actually might mean Mystic Bears is the scum strongman here...

Bruh what. You said "dont let town investigatives visit me" literally like 3 times. What the fuck else was I supposed to think and if i was scum, I would've just pushed you more and got a claim or enough suspicion on you that hopefully a town investigative would visit you.

[Sakura Hana]

Also if i were scum, Sakura would've died last night. I dont think Sakura is deep wolf but if she is, we're screwed anyways so it doesn't matter i guess.
The only case I could ever be scum here would literally be if like Roleblocker was 1 shot and out of shots but otherwise I dont think i ever shoot Romance over Sakura.

I could believe this, considering Romance wanted RealCheeks dead.
And is adamant about you being town and trying to disprove my PoE theory that's cornering scum.

[Sakura Hana]

Gamma, it's easy, scum RB me and kill Romance, there's no way for me to do anything about that (and it's the correct choice since Romance has better reads than me)

[Mystic Bears]

Anyways I have a bunch of homework and won't be back until probably actually Tuesday night. Faerie dont claim.