Final Fantasy XIV - A Realm Reborn Mafia (Game Over)

[RealCheeks]

Yes I guess Elsa did but they're in a league of their own.
~C

Well since you're so sure MB is town then i guess you're the strongman, sorry not sorry.

I was also sure Elsa was town so yeah fair enough.
~C

[mastina]

What is the basis for the strongman PoE again?

Strongman is almost assuredly an X-shot role, most likely one-shot.
Mirio died N1 with Sakura Hana protecting the slot--a very high chance of being due to a N1 strongman because strongmen tend to burn their shots N1 AND the alternative requires the scum roleblocker to have gotten ABSURDLY lucky by targeting Sakura Hana with zero info on Sakura.

Titus died N3 while bulletproof, which is proof that she was strongman'd.

Ergo, there is a very high chance that there was a scum strongman on the D1 raid which gave them a second shot.

Final Raid Group

1. Momrangal
   
   
2. Romance
   
3. mastina
   
4. Mandelbrot
   
5. Mystic Bears
   
6. Elsa Jay
   
7. RealCheeks
   
8. Toogeloo
   
9. Bell

It cannot be {Romance, mastina, Elsa Jay, Mandelbrot} due to their flips/roles.
That leaves the possibilities as {Mystic Bears, RealCheeks, Toogeloo, Bell}.
Toogeloo has very strong reason to not be scum;
Bell is not scum because this is his towngame.

Ergo, we have a 50/50 for the scum strongman in {Mystic Bears, RealCheeks}.

However, we also had a similar basically-50/50 for the scum roleblocker which is why voting WhemeStar is better here.

[mastina]

@mastina & @Toogeloo since this may be our last night using our ability, would you like us to Neighborize you two? We would have done it before, but I didn't want to trigger paranoia and be forced to out earlier.

Sure, it'd allow me to fullclaim to ya two to get the info out.

[Save The Dragons]

VOTE: wheme

[RealCheeks]

Oh MB also defended Wheme.
~C

[Mystic Bears]

Oh also thumbs up emoji for voting out wheme. Realcheeky said i TRed them which is like ???
Like I did on like day 1 but after that, no not really

[Mystic Bears]

Oh MB also defended Wheme.
~C

Bro what

[Mystic Bears]

Why is there so much false information oh my god

[Sakura Hana]

However, we also had a similar basically-50/50 for the scum roleblocker which is why voting WhemeStar is better here.

This is where i was gonna go originally today, but.
1) Romance's dying wish in the neighborhood was to eliminate RealCheeks, and I trust her reads better than mine.
2) Due to the reward today, there's no real reason to eliminate the roleblocker today as long as they are kept away from the raid.

But i'll eliminate wheme if that's what the majority wants, for me they are both scum anyway.

[RealCheeks]

It would be really funny if it were Bell. I'd nom that.
~C

[mastina]

If you’ve been paying attention the raids are repeating themselves in the exact same order, right? D1: X shot. D2: strongwilled D3: bp, D4: X shot. D5: strongwilled, so D6 will most likely be bp again, which means we absolutely should kill strongman because strongman is a bigger threat tomorrow. We don’t want a replay of what happened with Titus.

Does strongman gain a shot from a raid giving bulletproofs out?

I'd assume the answer to be 'no'.

So if the strongman used a shot N1 and N3, they should have none for N6.

Unless they were on the second refill raid...which we made composed of players specifically not on the first refill raid.

So the strongman CAN'T shoot the bulletproofs.

[Mandelbrot]

Oh MB also defended Wheme.
~C

Orly? Must be scum, then.

VOTE: Whemestar

- House

[Qrow and Raven]

Gamma, it's easy, scum RB me and kill Romance, there's no way for me to do anything about that (and it's the correct choice since Romance has better reads than me)

That also feels possible

-Qrow

[RealCheeks]

Why is there so much false information oh my god

One moment please caller.
~C

[Sakura Hana]

As I've been saying all scum has to do is roleblock me and shoot wherever they want to shoot and they dont need the strongman for that.

[Mystic Bears]

Oh MB also defended Wheme.
~C

Orly? Must be scum, then.

VOTE: Whemestar

- House

Because that fucking worked hot last time. Arcangel sure flipped scum role blocker or some shit.
Pretty sure Wheme is scum but your logic is wack. Maybe because you aren't town :/
Off for real this time though.

[mastina]

Gonna ISO mastina to confirm or she could answer it herself, but iirc she said she can auto succeed an incomplete raid? Which makes this process easier.

I can in fact auto-succeed an incomplete raid. I do have a shot left, so I could use it today or tomorrow, but not both (as I do in fact only have one shot).

[Qrow and Raven]

What is the basis for the strongman PoE again?

Strongman is almost assuredly an X-shot role, most likely one-shot.
Mirio died N1 with Sakura Hana protecting the slot--a very high chance of being due to a N1 strongman because strongmen tend to burn their shots N1 AND the alternative requires the scum roleblocker to have gotten ABSURDLY lucky by targeting Sakura Hana with zero info on Sakura.

Titus died N3 while bulletproof, which is proof that she was strongman'd.

Ergo, there is a very high chance that there was a scum strongman on the D1 raid which gave them a second shot.

Final Raid Group

1. Momrangal
   
   
2. Romance
   
3. mastina
   
4. Mandelbrot
   
5. Mystic Bears
   
6. Elsa Jay
   
7. RealCheeks
   
8. Toogeloo
   
9. Bell

It cannot be {Romance, mastina, Elsa Jay, Mandelbrot} due to their flips/roles.
That leaves the possibilities as {Mystic Bears, RealCheeks, Toogeloo, Bell}.
Toogeloo has very strong reason to not be scum;
Bell is not scum because this is his towngame.

Ergo, we have a 50/50 for the scum strongman in {Mystic Bears, RealCheeks}.

However, we also had a similar basically-50/50 for the scum roleblocker which is why voting WhemeStar is better here.

What about Titus? She had bp the night she died. Like we literally have proof of a strongman kill N2 and Occam’s razor makes sense about Mirio too.

~R

[Mandelbrot]

As I've been saying all scum has to do is roleblock me and shoot wherever they want to shoot and they dont need the strongman for that.

Then vote Wheme, no?

- House

[Sakura Hana]

As I've been saying all scum has to do is roleblock me and shoot wherever they want to shoot and they dont need the strongman for that.

Then vote Wheme, no?

- House

Planning to, but I dont want an accidental hammer before the raid is ready just in case, i rather better be safe than sorry, if Wheme is the roleblocker this isnt important, but if he isnt then... i guess we gotta give a stern look at STD.

[Sakura Hana]

Like we literally have proof of a strongman kill N2

N2 was a janitor kill.

[mastina]

As I've been saying all scum has to do is roleblock me and shoot wherever they want to shoot and they dont need the strongman for that.

Not if we kill the scum strongman today. Then they're forced to kill you since they can't kill your doc save, and they can't wait until tomorrow because you get BP tomorrow.

[Sakura Hana]

As I've been saying all scum has to do is roleblock me and shoot wherever they want to shoot and they dont need the strongman for that.

Not if we kill the scum strongman today. Then they're forced to kill you since they can't kill your doc save, and they can't wait until tomorrow because you get BP tomorrow.

strongman cant bypass strong heal, but strong roleblock can block strong heal.
I said this back in D2.

[RealCheeks]

uh ok im not reading up. I have choppily caught up anyways but like not reading reading up.
Ok so
1) Arcangel is like the most obvious scum or just scummy town. She seems scummy and that means we should let her bake in the read oven for a while longer.
2) Wheme is probably just scummy town. I feel like he's literally just town and people are being dumb. Like Wheme is always scummy and i don't see anything different this game. he's still scummy as heck and that's basically like town indicative when it comes to wheme

-bearbearnor

There's an implication in 2084 that the guilty'd player hasnt posted yet, at least not since the hard guilty was announced. Which means none of those posters were it.
If what you say is true it's highly likely the guilty'd player did post now.

Probably [MB, RealC]

The first part makes sense. The last part is just no.

But what if we elim before she gives us a name? To spice things up a bit.

Are you trying to flip my read of you?

If so, you're succeeding.

- House

Mmmmmmm

I stand by my hammer yesterday, if anyone wants to flesh it out.

Game was a bit stagnant, we were on Day 10(?) and discussion about anything was pretty much done. No significant pushes against any player had been made. Mom hadn't posted in 2 days, and T3 backed up the fact she has a lurkscum meta. Half her votes came like 2 pages prior to end of day, someone put her at E-1 when E-2 is usually the holding ground, and then dwlee spazzed out with the extra votes on a lurk slot.

Seemed to me hammering was a good idea. If you disagree, you can blow it out your shorts .

This is such an odd post.

Any hammer without a claim that’s not an hour before deadline is a bad hammer

Agreed.

I feel like waiting on the guilty is kind of dumb but I’m dumb so maybe it’s not dumb

Seems like the day will inevitably result in us orbiting and waiting to see who the guilty is on so talked about a stalled day

10/10 a town Noraa post to make. Full of self awareness and social anxiety or maybe I'm just imagining the latter part.

House, I feel Dwlee is town.

As on now:

ArcAngel9 - SUPER TOWN MAMA
Qrow and Raven (Gamma Emerald + Nancy Drew 39) - Was reading them scum but they could be town.
Titus - No clue
Toogeloo - Yet to discover
mastina - I am surprised by her playstyle on this game. I want to hear more.
Elsa Jay - No clue
Sakura Hana - Probably Town
Whemestar - Yet to discover
RealCheeks (RCEnigma + CheekyTeeky) - TBD
SirCakez - Probably town
Save The Dragons - Town
Head One and Head Two (T3 + ManateeGal) - Null
dwlee99 - SCUM
tictac - TBD
Momrangal - Null
Mystic Bears (Noraa + Flea the Magician) - Probably Scum
Mandelbrot (House + Yume) - TOWN
Romance - TBD
Bell - Probably town

Mirio - Probably Scum

Tomorrow Corporation - TBD

Partially back today.. No big changes from my last reads!!

I am down to eliminating either Mystic Bears or Dwlee,

We can elim this tomorrow.

I'm a doc so I'm happy to save Romance tonight. I'm also not over the fact that I was disallowed from joining yesterday's RAID.

@mod: Et tu, Brute?

This is just scum unless Sakura is scum which is not true given this counterclaim.

Okay anyways.
VOTE: SirCakez

There’s enough info in D1 for this to feel easy and I don’t wanna drag out half the day teasing this.

Arcangel / Wheme are the top suspects for me based on what they have said about Cakez/what Cakez said about them.

Wagon ahoy!!! [edited: we don't want hammer yet]

I mean... I can believe Sakura is doctor. It makes her earlier statement of "being right but still failed" make more sense.

Yeah, i basically healed mirio but he still died.
Was mad because i've literally never managed to save someone as a doctor, and the one time i was right something interfered with me.
Initially thought strongman, but the current raid reward makes me think it's probably not the case.

scum Roleblocker/strongman stop doctors. What does that have to do with the raid?

Honestly, it's a little annoying that I've been throwing all kinds of hints that we're a PR to attract a NK to save town power just to have half the player list drop trou on d2.

- House

Add me to the pile. Powerful pr # Noraa

skim skim skim

Let me reword, it's actually not unlikely that mystic bears would play with hydra dissonance to their advantage.
I just have no idea if they're doing that here. People have their own opinions about how to play hydras and how they play hydras can vary quite wildly.

For example, I basically play hydras as independent players sharing an alignment and don't try to think things through together.

What. Flea has posted like twice. Where is the dissonance?

Still weirded out by Massy's townread on me but so many scummy people. We leave her be for now. Massy should get on the raid and guarantee it goes thru.

I don't follow what momma bear is saying I got the claim but nothing else made sense.
Agree with Elsa TR though. Wheme, not so much. I didn't see an issue with wheme until recently and the issue is that i don't have an issue with him. Thats not supposed to happen. Like i guess its possible he got a mafia skills makeover or something but he's so null-y that I'm concerned. I'm supposed to be like death tunneling him if this was an average game. Idk but Titus on him tonight or some investigative, could be nice.

Sakura on romance.

Titus on [toog, wheme, arcangel] I have a couple other scum reads but I'm not going to reveal them quite yet. I'll make a better pool someday maybe if i remember. probably won't.

Ok I have a couple things to say and then gotta bounce
1) anyone that has shit to say about Flea's activity can talk to the hand. you have zero right to do that.
2) I will vote anyone that isn't Elsa or a hard townread of mine. This pool is huge. Whemestar, Realcheeky, Toogeloo, Bell, etc, etc. I will compromise on anything. Literally at this point I'm just 10000% right on Elsa. Town doesn't get run up this easily with no resistance. Like the only damn resistance is me and house. And god knows if House is even town anymore.

Ugh whatever I wanted to express my thoughts on Wheme anyways. Wheme is too towny. Thats the issue. I dont know what's wrong with everyone else saying he's scummy. Y'all crazy. He's being like townier than he usually is. And thats why I'm concerned. It's not really like him to be this towny.

He's talking with logic and his brain and not just throwing random things at us.

I remember his town game as being super super scummy and messy. I feel like he's a lot more composed and organized here. It's possible that his town game got better and it has been a couple months. I just think it's not that likely. My only hesitation is the fact that he's not that active this game so it makes me think real life might play a part. Like if I was dying because of homework in real life (like I am), I would be a lot more absent and my inability to engage at the level I normally do might make my thoughts more organized. Or something like that. Vibes are heavily impacted by real life.

Ok I misremembered the last posts as thinking he was town not too towny so.

I mean it's still me or you and it wasn't me.
~C

[Sakura Hana]

Oh wait, i misread, but regardless they cant kill my save tonight UNLESS the roleblocker is in the raid when it succeeds.